Boris had a 20% lead

[Borchester]

Billions?

That is right Pappy

The world's population is estimated to be around 7.9 billions.

[johnofgwent]

Today Johnson said something unusual for him. We're used to him bluffing and pretending there isn't a problem, or if he can't do that, blaming the problem on someone / something else. We're even now getting used to him making humble apologies.  The unusual thing today is that he claimed nobody told him that Partygate was braking the law.

Surely someone in the media will be able to find a clip Johnson himself announcing the relevant restrictions at one of the televised Covid press conferences held at No.10.

And for once I think he's telling the truth

I don't think anyone ever has TOLD him it would be a breach of the law.

As you say, I'm sure I've heard him say it himself, more than once, at a press release recitation. To have someone tell him, would be an absurdity.

You are I presume aware Cummings released a Press statement hours before, announcing he told Boris the very thing Boris denies he was told.

This is an extension of the Boris and Cummings pantomime and nothing to do with knowledge of the law

[papasmurf]

 And there were and are billions like me.

Billions? 

[HDQQ]

Today Johnson said something unusual for him. We're used to him bluffing and pretending there isn't a problem, or if he can't do that, blaming the problem on someone / something else. We're even now getting used to him making humble apologies.  The unusual thing today is that he claimed nobody told him that Partygate was braking the law.

Surely someone in the media will be able to find a clip Johnson himself announcing the relevant restrictions at one of the televised Covid press conferences held at No.10.

[Borchester]

I wouldn't say he has two years to turn around anything though Borchester. If the letters don't get sent in to the 1922 committee after Sue Grays investigation then they get sent in if they have a bad Local election in May. And given the locals are big in Wales and Scotland in 2022 along with Metropolitan London, we can as certain as we can be that currently BoJo can expect a very bad night right now in May.

As for the cost of living crisis, I think that will hit most working families actually in one way or another. There is a saying, "people vote with their wallet". And that will be true especially when the government can't get on top of the issue regardless whether the fault is theirs or not. And sure, Covid is boring the shit out of everyone. Keeping things open over Christmas was about BoJos only success recently. But even so, he still has had to borrow billions to pay everyone to sit at home a few years back and as such balancing borrowing at the very least is needed soon. And that means tax rises. And given we are complaining about 1.5p in NI, what do you think will be the reaction of tax rises during a cost of living crisis? I just can't see BoJos luck lasting.

Could be. That said, the Auntie declared that up to 30 letters had been sent demanding Boris' resignation, which could mean sod all. And folk really hit by the cost of living probably weren't going to vote Tory anyway. I am not sure how the left is going to make capital out of the lockdown. Is Sir Keir going to demand that money be saved by letting the sick die?

As said, Boris has a hard row to hoe. But he has time, the cunning of a rat and an opposition that really, really loves to screw up.

But we shall see.

[B0ycey]

Possibly because most of us aren't really effected by the cost of living and are bored arseless by Covid.

As said, Boris has a steep hill to climb. But he is lucky in that he has another two years to get back on track. We shall see. At least he has made UK politics interesting.

I wouldn't say he has two years to turn around anything though Borchester. If the letters don't get sent in to the 1922 committee after Sue Grays investigation then they get sent in if they have a bad Local election in May. And given the locals are big in Wales and Scotland in 2022 along with Metropolitan London, we can as certain as we can be that currently BoJo can expect a very bad night right now in May.

As for the cost of living crisis, I think that will hit most working families actually in one way or another. There is a saying, "people vote with their wallet". And that will be true especially when the government can't get on top of the issue regardless whether the fault is theirs or not. And sure, Covid is boring the shit out of everyone. Keeping things open over Christmas was about BoJos only success recently. But even so, he still has had to borrow billions to pay everyone to sit at home a few years back and as such balancing borrowing at the very least is needed soon. And that means tax rises. And given we are complaining about 1.5p in NI, what do you think will be the reaction of tax rises during a cost of living crisis? I just can't see BoJos luck lasting.

[Borchester]

I have to presume you are joking, the massive increase in the cost living on the way is going to badly effect a lot of people. If you think you are immune you must be rich.

No Pappy, I am just an ordinary chap who has done what had to be done to feed and clothe his family. I didn't blame the government when I was cold, poor, hungry or homeless, I just got on with things. And there were and are billions like me.

You, on the other hand, are you.

[papasmurf]

Possibly because most of us aren't really effected by the cost of living

I have to presume you are joking, the massive increase in the cost living on the way is going to badly effect a lot of people. If you think you are immune you must be rich.

[Borchester]

If we are to accept that as true, and by and large I think it is, you have to explain why anyone wouldn't just shake the dice with someone they don't know then keep with someone they do that is mared in controversy. And that isn't even getting to the specifics that are up and coming which are the cost of living crisis and the impending Covid pay back

As seems to be the consensus from commentators over this, it is accepted the party could survive but Boris at the helm means it is slamming against the rocks.

Possibly because most of us aren't really effected by the cost of living and are bored arseless by Covid.

As said, Boris has a steep hill to climb. But he is lucky in that he has another two years to get back on track. We shall see. At least he has made UK politics interesting.

[B0ycey]

True, but then most voters aren't dyed in the wool much of anything. Politics is not the centre of their being. 

If we are to accept that as true, and by and large I think it is, you have to explain why anyone wouldn't just shake the dice with someone they don't know then keep with someone they do that is mared in controversy. And that isn't even getting to the specifics that are up and coming which are the cost of living crisis and the impending Covid pay back

As seems to be the consensus from commentators over this, it is accepted the party could survive but Boris at the helm means it is slamming against the rocks.

[Borchester]

What you say is true up to a point. Starmer will only benefit for as long as Boris remains in place.
But it does need to be understood that not all Tory voters are dyed in the wool Tories.

True, but then most voters aren't dyed in the wool much of anything. Politics is not the centre of their being. They don't analyses every word that is said at Prime Minister's Question Time. They take a general impression as they do in all other walks of life, think well, silly looking sod but the best of a bad job.

So provide the Fat Controller can keep his nose clean for the next two years he might well get away with it.

[srb7677]

True, but I can't see how any of the above doing much good for the left.

The Tories will probably get a kicking in the May elections, but most of that will, as you say, come from Tories voters staying at home or voting for the Lib Dems. Come 2024 and a decent replacement for Boris, both will grumble down to the polling booths and vote Tory.

The problem is that the brothers and sisters seem to think that the grassroot Tory voters are going to swing to the left and demand waving fields of wheat, ballet in the evening and double pay for being a layabout. They ain't. What they want is Johnson. Someone who is cheerful, no doubt amoral but who can see and act on the big picture. The problem is that Johnson has not been Johnson for a year now, but I dare say that there are a few sharp elbowed clones jockeying for his job.

What you say is true up to a point. Starmer will only benefit for as long as Boris remains in place.
But it does need to be understood that not all Tory voters are dyed in the wool Tories. Quite a few, who help decide the outcome of elections, are floating voters who have often voted for others in the past. Relying on these  to still vote Tory with Bozo still in place is foolish. Quite a few in 2019 were also former Labour voters who tend to be to the left of Starmer's Labour in terms of bread and butter economics. Their support for the Tories was largely due to their desire for Brexit, and Bozo's promise to level up with increased spending. These too cannot be taken for granted.

I agree that dyed in the wool Tories will still vote Tory no matter what at the next election. But there are not enough of these alone to ensure Tory victory. They are in essence just the core vote. You are if I may say so being quite complacent in assuming that in spite of the anger with Bozo, he'll still retain all his existing support in an election. Such complacency, if it is reflected in the parliamentary Tory party, risks resulting in what neither of us want - a victory for Starmer's Labour.

[Borchester]

Most Tory supporters I know are in fact very angry over the parties, precisely because it seems to demonstrate different rules for them and us, with a belief that they are laughing at us and holding us in contempt. I know of numerous Tory supporters down here who have said they will not vote Tory again until Boris is gone, and in most cases it is anger at the points I have just raised which is motivating them.

If he is still in place in May the Tories will receive a drubbing far worse than the usual midterm blues. And there is the danger that if his party rallies behind him rather than replacing him, the wider party could come to be seen as holding the public in contempt. At the moment most of their anger, particularly from Tory voters I speak to, is directed at Boris himself and not the wider party. But if they back him come what may, the party itself could become tainted.

Once certain narratives become established they are very difficult to shift. Most of the public down here, including many Tory voters, have already decided that Boris is a wrong 'un and needs to go, their anger focussed upon him personally. I cannot see that changing. If the Tories do not do what they need to do to lance this boil, the anger out there could spread to encompass the wider party. If that happens even changing the leader a year or two down the line might not undo all the damage.

The last thing I want to see is Starmer gifted the next election.

True, but I can't see how any of the above doing much good for the left.

The Tories will probably get a kicking in the May elections, but most of that will, as you say, come from Tories voters staying at home or voting for the Lib Dems. Come 2024 and a decent replacement for Boris, both will grumble down to the polling booths and vote Tory.

The problem is that the brothers and sisters seem to think that the grassroot Tory voters are going to swing to the left and demand waving fields of wheat, ballet in the evening and double pay for being a layabout. They ain't. What they want is Johnson. Someone who is cheerful, no doubt amoral but who can see and act on the big picture. The problem is that Johnson has not been Johnson for a year now, but I dare say that there are a few sharp elbowed clones jockeying for his job.

[Sheepy]

Most Tory supporters I know are in fact very angry over the parties, precisely because it seems to demonstrate different rules for them and us, with a belief that they are laughing at us and holding us in contempt. I know of numerous Tory supporters down here who have said they will not vote Tory again until Boris is gone, and in most cases it is anger at the points I have just raised which is motivating them.

If he is still in place in May the Tories will receive a drubbing far worse than the usual midterm blues. And there is the danger that if his party rallies behind him rather than replacing him, the wider party could come to be seen as holding the public in contempt. At the moment most of their anger, particularly from Tory voters I speak to, is directed at Boris himself and not the wider party. But if they back him come what may, the party itself could become tainted.

Once certain narratives become established they are very difficult to shift. Most of the public down here, including many Tory voters, have already decided that Boris is a wrong 'un and needs to go, their anger focussed upon him personally. I cannot see that changing. If the Tories do not do what they need to do to lance this boil, the anger out there could spread to encompass the wider party. If that happens even changing the leader a year or two down the line might not undo all the damage.

The last thing I want to see is Starmer gifted the next election.

That's the problem with the Westminster party SRB, always trying to pull the wool over everyone else's eyes like it is some kind of rocket science, that they have their own agendas up in those ivory towers they produce.  

[srb7677]

i think boris will survive. The stories of boris killed my 98 year old aunt with a bottle of pinot noir arent really cutting the mustard. The screamers who are trying to have him removed are the same screamers who have been screaming about him at every turn since brexit and his coronation as tory leader.

His fellow tories arent pissed off with him over partygate , they are pissed off with covid restrictions and boris going green.

You are right about labvour though . Labour do what they have done time and again , cheer on duds like starmer and millband until it finally dawns on them after election day when they have lost that their latest hero is no good , and its back to the drawing board.

Im not sure any conclusions can be made with any accuracy john two years from any meangfull election. The cooncil elections are notorious for giving the ruling party in government a slap in the wrist so i think the tories have thier eyes o nthe bigger picture , and i wish the snp did too.

Most Tory supporters I know are in fact very angry over the parties, precisely because it seems to demonstrate different rules for them and us, with a belief that they are laughing at us and holding us in contempt. I know of numerous Tory supporters down here who have said they will not vote Tory again until Boris is gone, and in most cases it is anger at the points I have just raised which is motivating them.

If he is still in place in May the Tories will receive a drubbing far worse than the usual midterm blues. And there is the danger that if his party rallies behind him rather than replacing him, the wider party could come to be seen as holding the public in contempt. At the moment most of their anger, particularly from Tory voters I speak to, is directed at Boris himself and not the wider party. But if they back him come what may, the party itself could become tainted.

Once certain narratives become established they are very difficult to shift. Most of the public down here, including many Tory voters, have already decided that Boris is a wrong 'un and needs to go, their anger focussed upon him personally. I cannot see that changing. If the Tories do not do what they need to do to lance this boil, the anger out there could spread to encompass the wider party. If that happens even changing the leader a year or two down the line might not undo all the damage.

The last thing I want to see is Starmer gifted the next election.