New Party - True and Fair

[Thomas]

How big a massacre?

I haven't done a lot of research into the May elections, so you have me at an advantage.

How many seats do you expect the Tories to lose?

lib dems , boycey says are the ones to watch. Get doon the bookie borkie. Boycey says boris.....grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr.

[Borchester]

There is only one outcome with Johnson in his Ivory Tower come May. A Tory massacre!

How big a massacre?

I haven't done a lot of research into the May elections, so you have me at an advantage.

How many seats do you expect the Tories to lose?

[B0ycey]

They all bore the feck out of me, with their social Marxism if the banking crisis wasn't a big enough lesson, they have now had a big pharma one, idealistic morons all believing the likes of Starmer that you can change it from the inside, after 50 years of the EU telling them, no chance you do as you are told and have no say in the matter.

Well Sheepy, you need to make your mind up. First you want Corbyn to rise up with a new party and then you have the audacity to complain about the Social Marxist. Who exactly do you think are voting for Corbyn? What type of Manifesto did you think he published in 2019? Ayd Rands? It is the f**king Marxists that are 100% behind the guy. You don't even understand what figure you stand behind. And I have no problem if he starts a new party or not. All I know is that key Socai3l Democrat figures like Long Bailey won't move because they have Union support and key figure backing in the Labour Party. I understand that a Blairite is currently the leader, but trends are turning and I expect a more social Liberal leader next time given the youth vote demands one.

[Thomas]

But to be honest Thomas, let's just see what happens in May if BoJo is stearing the ship shall we.

well i expect the government party in westmisnter to take a hit mid term as normally happens. What will be interesting is to see how the labour "polls" actually hold out , and how starmer performs as we said because so far his record is pathetic.

It will be hilarious watching all you loony brit lefties go into meltdown if bojo actually survives , and not only survives but does well.

[Thomas]

Hartlepool. Is that you saving grace? That was when BoJo was polling high in a leave constituency. Every single Red wall seat is now forecast to turn red, including Hartlepool in the next election.

But to be honest Thomas, let's just see what happens in May if BoJo is stearing the ship shall we. When the Tories have a night to forget and the Lib Dems make some serious gains in May, come back on here and explain why I am wrong again. You only need to read the papers to see what a mess Johnson is making with partygate to see that your posts are actually nonsense. North Shropshire was a very high turnout for a by election in the winter  Seems those Tories came out and voted after all.

keir starmer has had nearly two years as labour leader , and has had a couple of opinion polls mid term showing labour in a polling lead . This is what you are raving about boycey?

As i said yesterday , both corbyn and millband did even better with polling leads , but they didnt win any elections.

You only need to read the papers to see what a mess Johnson is making with partygate to see that your posts are actually nonsense.

I thought you said newspapers dont do your thinking for you?

North Shropshire was a very high turnout for a by election in the winter  Seems those Tories came out and voted after all.

The turnout was massively down boycey what are you talking about?

[B0ycey]

Hartlepool. Is that you saving grace? That was when BoJo was polling high in a leave constituency. Every single Red wall seat is now forecast to turn red, including Hartlepool in the next election.

But to be honest Thomas, let's just see what happens in May if BoJo is stearing the ship shall we. When the Tories have a night to forget and the Lib Dems make some serious gains in May, come back on here and explain why I am wrong again. You only need to read the papers to see what a mess Johnson is making with partygate to see that your posts are actually nonsense. North Shropshire was a very high turnout for a by election in the winter  Seems those Tories came out and voted after all.

[Thomas]

Everytime the Tories f**k up badly and a By-election takes place, the Lib Dems fly high. cre!

based on what? 6 by elections have taken place since 2019 , tories have won 2 , famously hartlepool at labour expense , the liberals have won 2 at the tories expense , and the snp and labour have won the other two.

Of the two liberal victoires north shrop is expected to easily return to to tories , and the labour loss in hartlepool has been the biggest shock out the lot.

what are you talking about libs flying high?

You need to detach wishfull thinking , the bane of the left , from reality mate.

I hope the liberals do well in england , but can't see it.

[Sheepy]

They all bore the feck out of me, with their social Marxism if the banking crisis wasn't a big enough lesson, they have now had a big pharma one, idealistic morons all believing the likes of Starmer that you can change it from the inside, after 50 years of the EU telling them, no chance you do as you are told and have no say in the matter.

[Thomas]

Of course, some of those By elections were when BoJo was popular.

boycey for gods sake man this is nonsense.

Take the hartlepool by election. Boris didnt win in a long term labour stronghold i nthe north east of england because he was popualr , it was because idiot starmer stood an out and out remainers like saudi paul in an english leave seat , and pissed the voters right off rubbing their noses in it.

Fack all to do with popuarity. Boris was elected in 2019 as everyone knows due to brexit .....not because he was popualr outside the tory grassroots.

You are all over the place mate.

[B0ycey]

No you are completely misreading by election results and implying this is how things will pan out in a general election. The reading of 6 by elections results has been how poor keir starmer has done in them .

Of course, some of those By elections were when BoJo was popular. That isn't the case now. But in any case, I am looking at polling and trends to form a conclusion. Everytime the Tories F@@@ up badly and a By-election takes place, the Lib Dems fly high. Polling suggests both BoJo and Raab will lose their seats to the Lib Dems in the next election if it was to take place tomorrow and what is worse for you is the red wall turns red again and the Lib Dems gain 30 Tory seats.

There is only one outcome with Johnson in his Ivory Tower come May. A Tory massacre!

[Thomas]

If you look at the polls, Tory votes aren't moving from them to Labour. They are moving to the Lib Dems.

Which polls are that then?

In the north shropshire by election win for the liberals , from my understanding of english commentators  , it wasnt the tory vote that moved to the liberals , its was the tory vote stayed at home and the liberals capitalised in a seat where yet again starmers vote also fell dramatically.

Everyone expects this seat to return to what it has always been , a tory stronghold at the next GE.

Anyone who is familiar with politics knows fine well that labour are susceptible to lid dems taking votes off them , which is why the party has alwys hated the liberals. The liberals can and do attract small c tory voters , and of course tory remainers , but by and large as the last election and many others show , labour need the parties like the lib dems and snp to dissappear as well as attracting small c tory voters from mainly english marginals to have a hope in hell of winning an outright majority.

Why do you think blairites like good old spend so much of his time championing the two party system and screaming tory bad ? He wants to railroad the voting public into picking between two parties as he knows the "left" is far too susceptible to the vote being split.

I seriously wouldnt read anything into the north shropshire by election boycey , nothing more than a slap on the wrist mid term for the tories.

For the record , i also hope the liberals make a bit of a comback in england to help destroy the labour vote , but again , cant see it.

[Thomas]

 But where the Lib Dems are strongest now isn't taking votes off Labour but the Tories.

No you are completely misreading by election results and implying this is how things will pan out in a general election. The reading of 6 by elections results has been how poor keir starmer has done in them .

In 2019 , the liberals damaged the labour vote especially in england.

Misreading election results – largely so as to gloat or spread blame – is the traditional folly of post-election analysts. Boris Johnson won the election with a thumping parliamentary victory, but the operative word is parliamentary. His 43.6% of the vote was ahead of Theresa May's only by 1.2 percentage points, and dozens of his MPs were elected with less than 50% of the vote. Most of these – such as Kensington, Keighley, Bridgend and Chingford – were seats that Labour would have won had there been no Lib Dem presence.


With the exception of the Tony Blair era, Labour has been persistently vulnerable to moderate leftwing sentiment defecting to the Liberals.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/16/lib-dems-tories-split-vote-labour

[Thomas]

https://academic.oup.com/pa/article/68/suppl_1/70/1403259

From Coalition to Catastrophe: The Electoral Meltdown of the Liberal Democrats

Well worth a read.

Im not sure where boycey gets this stuff from about the lib dems being the party to watch , but thanks for the link.

For the local elections in scotland , the liberals are bumping around somewhere about 5 - 7 per cent in various polls , the last one i saw from about two weeks ago.

Havent seen any for england recently ( cooncil elections polls) , but im not sure ed davey has done anything to improve on thier station to justify the liberals being the party to watch as boycey hints.

They appear to be little more than a political pressure group given far too much airtime for thier status.

[B0ycey]

https://academic.oup.com/pa/article/68/suppl_1/70/1403259

From Coalition to Catastrophe: The Electoral Meltdown of the Liberal Democrats

Well worth a read.

The Lib Dems are the party of Remain now John. You may as well have posted they once supported an in out referendum. That isn't their core voter base anymore it should be said. But in any case, it seems Millers party is more about electoral reform rather than Brexit and as such that is another issue the Lib Dems stand on which is why she should join.

Nonetheless in terms of your post, I guess there will be people who remember the coalition years and think f**k that. But where the Lib Dems are strongest now isn't taking votes off Labour but the Tories. We have had two by-election Tory Strongholds turn yellow. With Boris in his Ivory tower, come May I expect quite a few Tory councils to turn yellow as well. Why? Because the coalition years doesn't matter to Tory Voters who are angry with Boris. What matters to them is they don't want Corbynites in office. Which is why Labours 10pt lead took so long to materialise. If you look at the polls, Tory votes aren't moving from them to Labour. They are moving to the Lib Dems.

[johnofgwent]

Gina Miller won't take any votes away from anyone simply because this party is a non starter. We already have a national UK wide EU supporting party which are called The Liberal Democrats. If the rejoining the EU is her aim she should consider becoming a member of them. She has the credentials to be an MP candidate for any seat of her choosing and at this moment in time the Lib Dems are taking huge sways of votes off the Tories in rural constituencies.

The Lib Dems. The party to watch in the Local Elections.

https://academic.oup.com/pa/article/68/suppl_1/70/1403259

From Coalition to Catastrophe: The Electoral Meltdown of the Liberal Democrats 

Well worth a read.