rishi trying to stop brexit

[GerryT]

I will bet you £20 that Bojo will still be PM in June 2022.

Deal?

He might survive until then, but he shouldn't. But yes I'll take that bet.

[Borchester]

You think Johnson's lying cheating govt is doing well at the moment. I said he would be gone by March/April time, will he last that long. Brexit impacts at the border are starting to hit, that will hit the mainstream media soon and will prob finish Johnson.

I will bet you £20 that Bojo will still be PM in June 2022.

Deal?

[GerryT]

A poll really depends on who you ask and how you analyse the result. DUP never want a poll, Sinn Fein want one now and the middle ground want one at a later date.

Sinn Fein don't care if they call a vote and lose, they know they will get a second, third, fourth etc.. bite at the cherry. 
There isn't a vote to ask if NI should leave the NI protocol arrangement by being partly in the EU.

DUP response


Sinn Fein


The middle ground people

[GerryT]

northern ireland cannot unilaterally make its own decision. It is dependent on two other states  , the republic if it wants to rejoin , or the uk if it wants to stay.

It all sounds good and wonderfull in a wee dream world where the northern irish get to plot their own future , but of course , many factors need to remain for the status quo to remain unchanged , including both EU and US support.

Biden and the demorats wont always be there.

Well, the NI secretary of state decides if there is a majority in NI that might vote for a united Ireland, if that is passed then a similar referendum would be held in Ireland to see if they agreed. it's conceivable that the UK PM might instruct the NI secretary in what to do but he could very easily ignore the PM's direction and secondly if a number of polls showed a strong majority it would be very difficult for the NI secretary to refuse. And if a poll was called and Nationalist didn't want one, then they just stay at home and don't vote. The outcome being the status quo, no change and the possibility of another vote would be a minimum of 7 more yrs.
You can't force a community (Nationalists) to vote to give up their right to a reunification vote at a future date. That breaks the GFA and would be unlawful.
The UK were fed up with NI back in the '90's and agreed the GFA, now that it doesn't suit it can't be discarded. The line that a future govt can't be bound... only applies to domestic decisions, not internationally binding agreements.
Most USA presidents try to play the Irish card, I think there's over 32million people in USA that identify as Irish. That's close to 10% of the population. That hammer isn't going away any day soon.

lot to go over in your posts, but the beauty of a referendum is either way , the uk can wash its hands of the protocal. If nationalists win ( arent you an irish nationlist gerry? ) its self evident the protocol goes , and if uninists win , we can bind the referendum beforehand with the insinuation that if they vote to stay , they brexit along with the rest of us and neither the usa or eu can moan about the will of the northern irish people.

7 years on , same thing again , and on and on till they fack off. perfect.

Your take is incorrect, its a one way street. Nationalists get to vote to leave and reunite IRL. It doesn't work the other way in that Unionists get to vote to remove the option for Nationalists. That's not in the agreement. The protocol never goes, not until there is a vote to leave.

same with the union agreement. They have to overturn one to have the other .

And what union agreement are you referring to.

your point doesnt stand as i was talking about the protocol lasting , not the ins and outs of the protocol which we have done to death on this forum .

You talked of many things, you said
The majority in northern ireland can see the limits of the protocoal ,and are uneasy about it lasting
I simply asked what limits, you made the claim there are limits and the majority in NI could see them. so what are the limits. I don't share your pessimism, but do show where the people of northern Ireland don't think the protocol won't last.

.A majority of voters in Northern Ireland want a border poll to be staged in the next five years, according to a new poll by LucidTalk for The Sunday Times.

Some 50.7 per cent said there should be a vote on whether Northern Ireland remained in the UK at some point before 2025, while 44.4 per cent said there should not, and 5 per cent did not know.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/northern-irish-back-border-poll-within-five-years-6ndbkz80s

lucidtalk have been polling regularly on the subject what are you talking about.?

All to play for gerry , meanwhile brexit is all over bar the hysterical crying.

Where do you come up with that, I can't read the year old UK times article, behind a pay wall, but where was their sample done, how many people and what was the question. Any talk shows I watch in NI don't demonstrate their is any appetite for a poll. Have you a link to the poll and I'll look at the question asked.
I looked at their site and this question was there, which doesn't tally with the above.

Should a border poll to determine whether NI remains part of the UK be held within the next 5 years?




But again even if there is a vote, its a vote on reunification, if that fails then the status quo remains, GFA/NI protocol and a border in the middle of the UK 

[GerryT]

I've just realised Rishi is an angram of Irish,he is therefore one of Little Leo's plants for the eu here to subvert and mayhap Gerry is his controller. 

You got me 

[Thomas]

What I want is NI to make their own decision,

northern ireland cannot unilaterally make its own decision. It is dependent on two other states  , the republic if it wants to rejoin , or the uk if it wants to stay.

It all sounds good and wonderfull in a wee dream world where the northern irish get to plot their own future , but of course , many factors need to remain for the status quo to remain unchanged , including both EU and US support.

Biden and the demorats wont always be there.

if the NI nationalist loose the vote for reunification then reunification isn't off the table, it's only paused for 7 yrs, and another 7 and another 7....

lot to go over in your posts, but the beauty of a referendum is either way , the uk can wash its hands of the protocal. If nationalists win ( arent you an irish nationlist gerry? ) its self evident the protocol goes , and if uninists win , we can bind the referendum beforehand with the insinuation that if they vote to stay , they brexit along with the rest of us and neither the usa or eu can moan about the will of the northern irish people.

7 years on , same thing again , and on and on till they fack off. perfect.

It's part of the GFA, 'no additional barriers to trade or peoples movement from NI or Ireland" or such similar words

same with the union agreement. They have to overturn one to have the other .

My points stand.

a. what are the limits of the protocol, you say there are.

your point doesnt stand as i was talking about the protocol lasting , not the ins and outs of the protocol which we have done to death on this forum .

When you say that the majority of NI support your call for a ref on NI place in the UK, are you suggesting that the people of NI are in favour of a ref that would ask the people to decide between Ireland or the UK. Because I don't know any people in NI that support that view

.A majority of voters in Northern Ireland want a border poll to be staged in the next five years, according to a new poll by LucidTalk for The Sunday Times.

Some 50.7 per cent said there should be a vote on whether Northern Ireland remained in the UK at some point before 2025, while 44.4 per cent said there should not, and 5 per cent did not know.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/northern-irish-back-border-poll-within-five-years-6ndbkz80s

lucidtalk have been polling regularly on the subject what are you talking about.?

All to play for gerry , meanwhile brexit is all over bar the hysterical crying.

[cromwell]

I men't TCA, not CTA (trade and co-operation agreement) but I guess that's what you understand I meant. If you remember back to the barnier graph the UK could have had many forms of agreement, but the UK choose what it wanted. So how would the UK trade with the EU if it moved away from the TCA.
From a EU perspective there was the opinion that the UK's expectations were too high, that the UK didn't realise its actual place in the world and the TCA is as good as it gets with the level of integration the UK wanted. So tell me what's you alternative to the TCA ?
I doubt it. Like I say, the UK is a rule taker when dealing with the big boys.
Majority . It requires a unanimous vote of all members, so best of luck to the UK if they look for that any time soon. Brexit always meant brino, unless the UK decided to stop all business, communication, travel with the EU. Once you have that you have the UK following EU rules.
You think Johnson's lying cheating govt is doing well at the moment. I said he would be gone by March/April time, will he last that long. Brexit impacts at the border are starting to hit, that will hit the mainstream media soon and will prob finish Johnson.

I've just realised Rishi is an angram of Irish,he is therefore one of Little Leo's plants for the eu here to subvert and mayhap Gerry is his controller. 

[GerryT]

personally im totally against the CTA. I think the current if not future uk government should ditch it. Thats my personal belief. The CTA was a joke that should never ever have been allowed.

I men't TCA, not CTA (trade and co-operation agreement) but I guess that's what you understand I meant. If you remember back to the barnier graph the UK could have had many forms of agreement, but the UK choose what it wanted. So how would the UK trade with the EU if it moved away from the TCA.
From a EU perspective there was the opinion that the UK's expectations were too high, that the UK didn't realise its actual place in the world and the TCA is as good as it gets with the level of integration the UK wanted. So tell me what's you alternative to the TCA ?

northern ireland can want what ever they like ,the point i keep making is the current status quo is at the mercy of events elsehwere.

That could change at any time .

I doubt it. Like I say, the UK is a rule taker when dealing with the big boys.

hope so , for the minute its all over bar the hysterical wailing of remoaners like yourself.

I doubt the eu would want the uk back in without a large majority in support , at the minute , its fluctuating 50/50.

If we can keep labour out in two years time , which i think is likely with their lamentable leader and all his anti brexit baggage , we can kick the ball further down the road . If labour get back in , then there is no doubt in my mind they will tie the uk back into the eu by the back door. BRINO.

Majority . It requires a unanimous vote of all members, so best of luck to the UK if they look for that any time soon. Brexit always meant brino, unless the UK decided to stop all business, communication, travel with the EU. Once you have that you have the UK following EU rules.

you think ? You will have to run that one past me . how so?

You think Johnson's lying cheating govt is doing well at the moment. I said he would be gone by March/April time, will he last that long. Brexit impacts at the border are starting to hit, that will hit the mainstream media soon and will prob finish Johnson.

[GerryT]

what are you gibbering about now. You said yourself you dont want a vote any time soon , what you want is northern ireland to remain in the uk ,remain in the eu , and you hope it becomes an achillies heel to damage brexit in some unfathomable way.

You dont get the bit where northern ireland can't stay in the uk if the english dont want them to do you? The current situation wont last. All you can do is hope and pray it last long enough to damage brexit.

What I want is NI to make their own decision, how could it possibly damage brexit, this is Johnson's plan, he ousted May and introduced this arrangement. Why can't it last, what's wrong with it.

parliament is sovereign , and no parliament can be bound by a previous one.

The repercusions could easilty be dealt with by holding a referndum on uk terms , forcing the northern irish to vote either way , and it would instantly end both eu and usa complaints as the ref result would be the will of the irish people.

So no , there doesnt necessarily have to be repercussions as long as the uk gov plays their hands right.

I think you'll find those words are hollow. A UK Govt that signs up to an agreement can decide to walk away from that agreement. But if the third party takes exception then there will be repercussions.
In the good old days when the UK was an empire that tactic might have worked, but its no longer a big boy. SO if it does take that course of action it best be with a small partner and not a big one.
Parliament is sovereign :D:D  until it's told otherwise, didn't you know, the UK is a rule taker now.

You can do better than that cock and bull idea, if the NI nationalist loose the vote for reunification then reunification isn't off the table, it's only paused for 7 yrs, and another 7 and another 7....  

If you don't like this concept then argue with the UK Govt that signed this deal.

they did ,and northern ireland as part of the uk remaining in the eu wasnt one of the reasons.

It's part of the GFA, 'no additional barriers to trade or peoples movement from NI or Ireland" or such similar words. Obviously the intent was for the UK to pull out of NI, it's only a matter of time. Because the UK now wants it sooner doesn't make it so.

are we? What fall out is that then? From what i see , you gerry are desperately relying on the goodwill of the uk keeping northern ireland in both the uk and eu. While screaming brexit bad.

Johnson hates this arrangement, his hands are tied. If he could put up a border between NI and Ireland he would have done it Jan1 2021. He didn't, why didn't he ?
Incase you haven't been watching, there has been zero goodwill from the UK side, unless you'd like to point some out.

you have chopped off my quote , did  you see where i said in terms of it lasting ?

My points stand.
a. what are the limits of the protocol, you say there are.
b. When you say that the majority of NI support your call for a ref on NI place in the UK, are you suggesting that the people of NI are in favour of a ref that would ask the people to decide between Ireland or the UK. Because I don't know any people in NI that support that view.

i didnt suggest they would.

What im suggesting is it would further alienate northern ireland in the minds of yookay voters , and increase calls for the uk parliament to cut them adrift , either through a referendum or some other way.

The UK voters, which NI people are also a part of, won't have a say. remember, GFA...NI protocol..TCA...EU...USA.  Nobody in England cares about NI, they couldn't care less who's in charge over here, why would they care one way or the other.
Why do you think the people of the UK would want a referendum, how does what goes on in NI affect them in any way. There's plenty of other things for people to worry about, i'd say NI is way down their list. 

says the man who hasnt uttered a word about todays relevance in irish history.

i am suprised.

Northern ireland isnt a problem. I know you wish otherwise , but to the vast majority of uk voters they dont give a fack.

The problem is for unionism in northern ireland as you suggested yourself , who are used to being shat on by uk governmtns.

I know you are sitting on the edge of your seat hoping its of vast relevance to the majority , but most folk dont know or care about northern ireland , and would be quite happy to ditch the place and save ten billion.

Why would I mention it, other than proving my point that the UK just does what it wants but hasn't as yet with NI, why?
First you say the people of the UK would be so upset about Sinn Fein and now you say they don't care, which is it ?
I couldn't care one jot what the people in GB thing of NI, they might want to ditch it but how does that work. 

you can't put a price on freedom , as the people in the republic of ireland know fine well.

tik tok gerry , how long can the status quo last in ulster 6/9?

For as long as the people of NI choose, thats freedom, making your own decisions. Your type of freedom is telling the people of NI how it will be to suit GB, that's not a type of freedom that I'd sign up for.

[Thomas]

And not least of which is the GFA and CTA, both of which are strongly supported by the EU and USA. In the end England don't care about NI, if they did then they would have left with no deal and a united UK.

personally im totally against the CTA. I think the current if not future uk government should ditch it. Thats my personal belief. The CTA was a joke that should never ever have been allowed.

so, I think with time and when the benefits become more obvious they will want it to last for a very long time.

northern ireland can want what ever they like ,the point i keep making is the current status quo is at the mercy of events elsehwere.

That could change at any time .

As I've said before the chances of the UK rejoining is very very slim. That would mean ditching sterling for the Euro, no 5 billion rebate, joining schengan, admitting the brexit folly was a bad idea. I doubt I'll see that or my children in their life time.

hope so , for the minute its all over bar the hysterical wailing of remoaners like yourself.

I doubt the eu would want the uk back in without a large majority in support , at the minute , its fluctuating 50/50.

If we can keep labour out in two years time , which i think is likely with their lamentable leader and all his anti brexit baggage , we can kick the ball further down the road . If labour get back in , then there is no doubt in my mind they will tie the uk back into the eu by the back door. BRINO.

.The only people running out of road at the moment is the UK govt, and very fast.

you think ? You will have to run that one past me . how so?

[GerryT]

They do from what i can tell to both situations. However , can things last as they are ?Whatever the majority believe , the current suituation relies on outside forces not least of which are the british.

And not least of which is the GFA and CTA, both of which are strongly supported by the EU and USA. In the end England don't care about NI, if they did then they would have left with no deal and a united UK.

I know all this better than you do.

I keep saying to you gerry , how long can things be strung out to your potential advantage before someone somewhere loses patience.?

Northern ireland is part of the uk at present , and the uk is paying for the place. Already , a large amount of the uk as i have shown numerous times over recent years are gadually running out of patience , and would happily ditch the place.

You need it all to stay as it is , and hope someone somewhere gets into power to tie the uk back into the EU. Its a question of time .

I think everyone everywhere agrees northern ireland is an historical anomaly that should never have happened , and could never survive on its own without the uk propping it up. You need the british to prop the place up , while you try and us it to hamstring them.

Im saying one way or other , you are going to run out of road when the english run out of patience.

It's not to my advantage, it's to the advantage of NI, so, I think with time and when the benefits become more obvious they will want it to last for a very long time.
As I've said before the chances of the UK rejoining is very very slim. That would mean ditching sterling for the Euro, no 5 billion rebate, joining schengan, admitting the brexit folly was a bad idea. I doubt I'll see that or my children in their life time.

I'm sure when Ireland takes over running NI it will become a booming economic area, jest because everything England touches turns to crap doesn't mean it's crap.The only people running out of road at the moment is the UK govt, and very fast. Brexit can't be reversed, so let's see what the next UK govt does with the sorry mess. I hope the conservatives stay in power, this is their doing and the blame should firmly stay with them.

[Thomas]

THe "question" in the GFA is just that, a vote to leave the UK and united with Ireland. If that fails the first time try try try again. There is no mention of a vote for NI to leave it's current status of one foot inside the UK and one in the EU.

what are you gibbering about now. You said yourself you dont want a vote any time soon , what you want is northern ireland to remain in the uk ,remain in the eu , and you hope it becomes an achillies heel to damage brexit in some unfathomable way.

You dont get the bit where northern ireland can't stay in the uk if the english dont want them to do you? The current situation wont last. All you can do is hope and pray it last long enough to damage brexit.

Well yes the UK can walk away from it's international agreements. Such as the GFA or TCA, but that has repercussions, Johnson knows this.

parliament is sovereign , and no parliament can be bound by a previous one.

The repercusions could easilty be dealt with by holding a referndum on uk terms , forcing the northern irish to vote either way , and it would instantly end both eu and usa complaints as the ref result would be the will of the irish people.

So no , there doesnt necessarily have to be repercussions as long as the uk gov plays their hands right.

What I said is that brexiteers constantly say they knew what they voted for.

they did ,and northern ireland as part of the uk remaining in the eu wasnt one of the reasons.

What we are doing is watching the fall out of brexit. The brexit that people voted for, this is it.

are we? What fall out is that then? From what i see , you gerry are desperately relying on the goodwill of the uk keeping northern ireland in both the uk and eu. While screaming brexit bad.

I'll bite, what are the limits of the protocol ?

you have chopped off my quote , did  you see where i said in terms of it lasting ?

First if Sinn Fein do get a majority in NI, which is doubtful, but even if they did, their is very little chance they would seek a border poll.

i didnt suggest they would.

What im suggesting is it would further alienate northern ireland in the minds of yookay voters , and increase calls for the uk parliament to cut them adrift , either through a referendum or some other way.

You don't even know why it's a problem.

says the man who hasnt uttered a word about todays relevance in irish history.

i am suprised.

Northern ireland isnt a problem. I know you wish otherwise , but to the vast majority of uk voters they dont give a fack.

The problem is for unionism in northern ireland as you suggested yourself , who are used to being shat on by uk governmtns.

I know you are sitting on the edge of your seat hoping its of vast relevance to the majority , but most folk dont know or care about northern ireland , and would be quite happy to ditch the place and save ten billion.

It's not because there are trade difficulties, it's because it's trade performance is going to show the shit show Brexit is when compared with England/Scotland/Wales. That's the only reason johnson wants to break ties between NI and the EU

you can't put a price on freedom , as the people in the republic of ireland know fine well.

tik tok gerry , how long can the status quo last in ulster 6/9?

[GerryT]

No thats not the question. I addressed this earlier.

THe "question" in the GFA is just that, a vote to leave the UK and united with Ireland. If that fails the first time try try try again. There is no mention of a vote for NI to leave it's current status of one foot inside the UK and one in the EU.

Rubbish. The GFA was only ever intednded to be a short term fix. Unionists want it abandoned  , nationalists dont need it if they get thier way.

Nothing stays the same for ever gerry. As i said earlier , its a question of time , and is time on your side? No i dont think so.

Well yes the UK can walk away from it's international agreements. Such as the GFA or TCA, but that has repercussions, Johnson knows this. The UK can also bomb Canada, but the chance of that happening is about as much as the chance of the UK breaking it's agreements.

Did they ? Thats news to me. Brexiters ,if you mean the public who voted for brexit , were told brexsit was a uk ref and the uk had to leave if they won. That hasnt happened. In political terms , it is indeed what labour and tory voted for , but it wasnt what all the political parties in the uk supported.

The uk parliament as you told us is sovereign , and it can overtrun any agreement it like ,especially withtin its own state.

Like i said ,its a question of timescale and how long it survives. You hope it lasts to damage brexit , it think events will over take it one way or the other.

What I said is that brexiteers constantly say they knew what they voted for. They could have know what Johnson agreed was going to put a border in the middle of the UK, so what's the fuss all about...Unless Brexiteers hadn't a clue what they were voting for, because there was no detail plan as to what brexit was. Just simple jingo jango hairy fairy stuff.
The agreements we are talking about are not WITHIN it's own state, they are international agreements, breaking or changing them unilaterally has repercussions, so no, they can't be changed without serious repercussions. Does Johnson care enough about NI..no, in fact he doesn't seem to care about anything, he's just laughing at everyone at the moment.
Brexit can't be damaged, it's done, completed. What we are doing is watching the fall out of brexit. The brexit that people voted for, this is it.

The majority in northern ireland can see the limits of the protocoal ,and are uneasy about it lasting. They also support my call for a referendum in the coming years on ni place i nthe uk , so once again timescale is the important factor.

Much as you dnt want to discusss northern irelands internal politics , are you awars of the upcoming elections and the chance sinn fein could become the biggest party and potentially hold the office of first minister?

As i said , i doubt vey much you europhiles will have this to cling to for much longer. A week is a long time in politics.

I'll bite, what are the limits of the protocol ? and what majority, there's absolutely no majority in NI with that view, you do realise the DUP and their extreme views are an ever shrinking party, a minority group.

First if Sinn Fein do get a majority in NI, which is doubtful, but even if they did, their is very little chance they would seek a border poll. But yet again, the question, it's outlined in the GFA, there is and will be no question to ask if the people of NI will abandon it's option to reunite with Ireland. That option is safe guarded in the GFA, there is no such protection for membership of the UK.
I doubt very much you brexiteers fully grasp the NI situation. You don't even know why it's a problem. It's not because there are trade difficulties, it's because it's trade performance is going to show the shit show Brexit is when compared with England/Scotland/Wales. That's the only reason johnson wants to break ties between NI and the EU.

[Thomas]

The people of NI in majority favour the current situation, in fact the majority wanted to remain in the EU.

They do from what i can tell to both situations. However , can things last as they are ?Whatever the majority believe , the current suituation relies on outside forces not least of which are the british.

like I've said many times, NI will decide their future in their own time. Young people dont see themselves as unionist or nationalist but more Northern Irish, with time the community tensions will disappear, interference by Johnson or his merry band of fools led by Truss doesn't help.

I know all this better than you do.

I keep saying to you gerry , how long can things be strung out to your potential advantage before someone somewhere loses patience.?

Northern ireland is part of the uk at present , and the uk is paying for the place. Already , a large amount of the uk as i have shown numerous times over recent years are gadually running out of patience , and would happily ditch the place.

You need it all to stay as it is , and hope someone somewhere gets into power to tie the uk back into the EU. Its a question of time .

I think everyone everywhere agrees northern ireland is an historical anomaly that should never have happened , and could never survive on its own without the uk propping it up. You need the british to prop the place up , while you try and us it to hamstring them.

Im saying one way or other , you are going to run out of road when the english run out of patience.

[GerryT]

The people of NI in majority favour the current situation, in fact the majority wanted to remain in the EU. The DUP were the largest party in NI for decades but their stance on Brexit and whipping up trouble has had their base move to other unionist parties, once that are less radical. While Sinn Fein is now the majority party,  your graphics are not representative of the feelings of the people of NI.

like I've said many times, NI will decide their future in their own time. Young people dont see themselves as unionist or nationalist but more Northern Irish, with time the community tensions will disappear, interference by Johnson or his merry band of fools led by Truss doesn't help.