Money will be tight

[DeppityDawg]

There is a term used in court sometimes which goes something like  - it was action taken in the agony of the moment.  We would have been hard pressed I think not to have been led by the examples around the world starting with China and moving on to Europe. I think to be fair the original thought was that herd immunity should be the aim but as deaths rose the inevitable about turn happened. Once furlough was created - and massively robbed - we were all lost in many ways. I still cannot see how in the end we could have done so very differently. The truth of the matter is perhaps that those who should have been were simply not prepared. We had weeks of warnings yet they sat on their hands. Perhaps the benefit of hindsight will allow lessons to be learned. I think things developed and our Ministers did indeed act in the agony of the moment. What leadership would risk wholesale deaths if they believed they could avoid them?

I get much of that Toots. But did all the doomsday "a million people will die before next Thursday" model scenarios come anything close to being accurate? Those people need to be made to answer in a public enquiry. How about all the little tyrants it created both in our government and law enforcement? How about those who made a lot of money out of the whole thing? Who seriously believed all that money could simply be created out of thin air and no consequences would follow? The answer is clowns who turned to something called Modern Monetary Theory because they lacked the morale courage to say no when difficult decision looked like being needed? That's the leadership who could take those kind of decisions "to avoid wholesale death" (computer generated wholesale death that is), and because they aren't the ones who'll end up paying for it for the rest of their lives

[patman post]

Actually they aren't. All commodity prices are falling although, with things such as gas and oil, it will take a while for us to see the benefits because the stuff was bought weeks ago and so it will take a while until we see cheaper petrol.

Problem is that it always seems that the slightest whiff of rising costs and the price rockets. But when costs drop, there's always too much in the system to reduce prices immediately.

When/if reduced tax takes on fuel and energy come in, don't expect prices to drop at "6pm tonight" like when tax hikes come in...

[cromwell]

We only stopped paying for WW2 in the nineteen nineties,govts make decisions and a bill has to be paid.

[T00ts]

About 2 years ago, back in the beginning of and in the early days of lockdown, I and a couple of other posters wrote of our grave reservations about "lockdown" and the wholesale closing of economies. We said that you cannot simply close whole economies and supply chains down. We warned that those championing computer "models" might not be as accurate as they said they were. We warned that you cannot print vast amounts of imaginary money and expect everything to be ok. We warned that there would be severe consequences down the line, and that the young were the ones who were going to have to pay for these measure for the rest of their lives. And this was before a major war was thrown into the equation. Several posters (thankfully not you) called us "uncaring", with one even going on to say that anyone who didn't support total lockdown wholesale, would have "blood on their hands". It wouldn't take you long to figure out which drama queen came up with that gem

I am not one to say "I told you so", but several of us did exactly that. The consequences of shutting down the whole world for months on end and printing vast amounts of money out of thin air are now popping out all over, and neither governments, central banks nor the media can hide them. The chickens are now coming home to roost. And now we have a major war too.

The costs of the "pandemic era support", as governments are now calling it, is going to take generations to repay. One day, maybe someone will be able to calculate how many more lives it cost, ruined or displaced, and see if the lives it was supposed to have saved add up. I hope for the sake of todays young that they do, or they will never forgive this generation

There is a term used in court sometimes which goes something like  - it was action taken in the agony of the moment.  We would have been hard pressed I think not to have been led by the examples around the world starting with China and moving on to Europe. I think to be fair the original thought was that herd immunity should be the aim but as deaths rose the inevitable about turn happened. Once furlough was created - and massively robbed - we were all lost in many ways. I still cannot see how in the end we could have done so very differently. The truth of the matter is perhaps that those who should have been were simply not prepared. We had weeks of warnings yet they sat on their hands. Perhaps the benefit of hindsight will allow lessons to be learned. I think things developed and our Ministers did indeed act in the agony of the moment. What leadership would risk wholesale deaths if they believed they could avoid them? 

[DeppityDawg]

Some of us have lived through something similar before yet with the concentration on Boris and the shenanigans in Whitehall it is in danger of slipping under the radar until it suddenly hits us all for six. The young are going to be very worried and there is no hiding the fact that it is going to be tough for very many. It's global and out off our hands so say. What can be done?

About 2 years ago, back in the beginning of and in the early days of lockdown, I and a couple of other posters wrote of our grave reservations about "lockdown" and the wholesale closing of economies. We said that you cannot simply close whole economies and supply chains down. We warned that those championing computer "models" might not be as accurate as they said they were. We warned that you cannot print vast amounts of imaginary money and expect everything to be ok. We warned that there would be severe consequences down the line, and that the young were the ones who were going to have to pay for these measure for the rest of their lives. And this was before a major war was thrown into the equation. Several posters (thankfully not you) called us "uncaring", with one even going on to say that anyone who didn't support total lockdown wholesale, would have "blood on their hands". It wouldn't take you long to figure out which drama queen came up with that gem 

I am not one to say "I told you so", but several of us did exactly that. The consequences of shutting down the whole world for months on end and printing vast amounts of money out of thin air are now popping out all over, and neither governments, central banks nor the media can hide them. The chickens are now coming home to roost. And now we have a major war too.

The costs of the "pandemic era support", as governments are now calling it, is going to take generations to repay. One day, maybe someone will be able to calculate how many more lives it cost, ruined or displaced, and see if the lives it was supposed to have saved add up. I hope for the sake of todays young that they do, or they will never forgive this generation

[Borchester]

Not quite that simple Mr B.

I am easily pleased

[Nick]

So Mrs Zaghari is released and the oil taps are turned back on.

Everyone wins

Not quite that simple Mr B. 

[Borchester]

There's a reason Nazanin Zaghari is back in the U.K., and it isn't because of the Iranians good will. It's because the U.K. paid it's debt, and the reason for that is that Iran are part of OPEC. Everyone is cozying up to the Arabs and begging them to open the tap, and if they do Putins oil will not be required.

So Mrs Zaghari is released and the oil taps are turned back on.

Everyone wins

[Nick]

All true boysie. The longer the Russians sit in their traffic jams,drink vodka, play their balalaikas and don't run around killing folk the better for all concerned

Russia's tax system is a bit top heavy, with most of the revenues coming from commodities such as oil and gas, rather than income taxes and such. So I imagine that after a bit Putin will quietly turn the taps back on and we will return to the days of petrol at 2/6d a gallon.

Bloomberg expect  Brent Crude to stay above $100 dollars a barrel for the near future. Since they talk through their arse it will probably fall, but who knows? Broken clocks etc.

There's a reason Nazanin Zaghari is back in the U.K., and it isn't because of the Iranians good will. It's because the U.K. paid it's debt, and the reason for that is that Iran are part of OPEC. Everyone is cozying up to the Arabs and begging them to open the tap, and if they do Putins oil will not be required. 

[Borchester]

The war effects the price due to uncertainty Borkie. If the Russian convoy is going no where it is because Russia must think there is hope in talks even if it seems to have hit a snag.  The way I look at it, the more Russia attack, the more likely the talks are stalling so in that sense we should be thankful it is stationed right now.

As for the prices, the main problem is Russia are the third highest supplier of oil and we have decided to not buy Russian oil. I am sure they would be more than happy to sell it to us, but like everything in life, if you cut yourself off a market you restrict what you can buy and defacto will pay more for what you need. The demand for oil hasn't disappeared. What has reduced is the supply as everyone wants to pay more for whats left. The winner of this? OPEC. Other winners, those who but discounted Russian oil. And the losers. Everyone buying premium priced oil. I don't see the price dropping anytime soon. Sure the media keep giving us nuggets of hope like when it dropped below $100pp for a single day. But by and large the trend is up and I don't see why things will change given the outcome of the war will still mean we still restrict what oil we buy.

All true boysie. The longer the Russians sit in their traffic jams,drink vodka, play their balalaikas and don't run around killing folk the better for all concerned

Russia's tax system is a bit top heavy, with most of the revenues coming from commodities such as oil and gas, rather than income taxes and such. So I imagine that after a bit Putin will quietly turn the taps back on and we will return to the days of petrol at 2/6d a gallon.

Bloomberg expect  Brent Crude to stay above $100 dollars a barrel for the near future. Since they talk through their arse it will probably fall, but who knows? Broken clocks etc.

[B0ycey]

That said, it does appear to be that a lot of stuff was bought at sky high prices weeks ago and that it will take some time for the cheaper stuff to work through the system. I don't know why oil prices are so high. The Ukrainians are stuck in their cities and apart from occasionally revving the motors, that 100 mile Russian convoy isn't going anywhere. Still, there you go

The war effects the price due to uncertainty Borkie. If the Russian convoy is going no where it is because Russia must think there is hope in talks even if it seems to have hit a snag.  The way I look at it, the more Russia attack, the more likely the talks are stalling so in that sense we should be thankful it is stationed right now. 

As for the prices, the main problem is Russia are the third highest supplier of oil and we have decided to not buy Russian oil. I am sure they would be more than happy to sell it to us, but like everything in life, if you cut yourself off a market you restrict what you can buy and defacto will pay more for what you need. The demand for oil hasn't disappeared. What has reduced is the supply as everyone wants to pay more for whats left. The winner of this? OPEC. Other winners, those who but discounted Russian oil. And the losers. Everyone buying premium priced oil. I don't see the price dropping anytime soon. Sure the media keep giving us nuggets of hope like when it dropped below $100pp for a single day. But by and large the trend is up and I don't see why things will change given the outcome of the war will still mean we still restrict what oil we buy.

[Borchester]

Are you sure about that Borkie?

https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities

Unfortunately oil is back over $100 a barrel and gas is on the up too. And when you take into account energy and transport is a key margin in everything we buy, inflation is only going up. Macron is warning of food shortages and BoJo is already saying we should all expect sacrifices to maintain our freedom. So I ask again Borkie, are you sure prices are falling?

I am not sure about anything Boysie. That is why I should be in charge of the national finances. At least I know what I don't know, which puts me head and shoulders above most anyone else commenting on commodity prices.

That said, it does appear to be that a lot of stuff was bought at sky high prices weeks ago and that it will take some time for the cheaper stuff to work through the system. I don't know why oil prices are so high. The Ukrainians are stuck in their cities and apart from occasionally revving the motors, that 100 mile Russian convoy isn't going anywhere. Still, there you go

[Borchester]

I'll send a tanker....

God, our other house we moved out of 24 years ago had over an acre of garden, and we used to grow all sorts on the lower garden.

People laugh that spuds were pennies a bag but it's not the point, there was something about the taste of home grown veg ..... And yes, leek and potato and carrot and coriander were made by the hogshead....

Gardening is a strange and sometimes comic addiction, but happily incurable

[johnofgwent]

Well, I have found the answer to the leek question. So old England may be done, but I should be able to see you folk ok for the occasional bowl of potato and leek soup.

I'll send a tanker....

God, our other house we moved out of 24 years ago had over an acre of garden, and we used to grow all sorts on the lower garden.

People laugh that spuds were pennies a bag but it's not the point, there was something about the taste of home grown veg ..... And yes, leek and potato and carrot and coriander were made by the hogshead....

[B0ycey]

Actually they aren't. All commodity prices are falling although, with things such as gas and oil, it will take a while for us to see the benefits because the stuff was bought weeks ago and so it will take a while until we see cheaper petrol.

Are you sure about that Borkie?

https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities

Unfortunately oil is back over $100 a barrel and gas is on the up too. And when you take into account energy and transport is a key margin in everything we buy, inflation is only going up. Macron is warning of food shortages and BoJo is already saying we should all expect sacrifices to maintain our freedom. So I ask again Borkie, are you sure prices are falling?