So much for Brexit

[Conchúr]

Think your post just about summed it up Thomas,despite all his supposed happiness for Ireland he seems angry and frustrated at the elections turn of events and still trying (despite his protestations to the contrary) depict the leave voters as clueless and portraying brexit as a disaster,even when you point out we are prepared for a possible hit on leaving still not satisfied. :shrg:  

Cromwell, I have literally only asked you to give an opinion on what you want. You're the one who is telling me that you're somehow waiting around to decide what your beliefs are.  I think so far all you have said is "No BRINO" and all I am doing here in my conversation with you is trying to understand what you actually mean by this, because (1) that can mean different things to different people and (2) previous things you have said on this thread have confused me as to what it means to you.



For example, you said a couple of days ago that you expect the Services industry to continue on as before, but for Services to continue on as before this would mean quite a high level of regulatory alignment with the EU.  The less alignment, the more change to the way the UK Services access and operate in Europe. For the purposes of this discussion (to avoid you bleating on about me trying to portray Brexit as a disaster), I'm deliberately not going to offer you any opinion on whether I see that as a good or bad thing — but I am simply telling you that this is a stone-cold fact much in the same way it is a fact that Dublin lies due west of the island of Angelesey.  No crystal ball gazing is necessary to opine that more divergence means more change — because what the hell would be the point in diverging if divergence meant no change ?



So when you say you don't want BRINO, can I at least get you to clarify that you mean that you don't want the UK to have any level of regulatory alignment whatsoever with the EU?

[Nick]

Well, I do contemplate them Nick but it's extremely likely that the future relationship with the EU is going to have to be dealt with before those deals get signed.  



The EU needs the UK market but also needs to protect the central element of its economic integrity.  In a toss up between losing significant business from the UK, versus the disruption likely to arise if it compromises on its integrity — they're going to opt for the former every day of the week.  Even if no deal was reached on Services, the EU can simply say "here have all the access to the Single Market you want" and then over time tighten that access at its own pace — gradually recalibrating any areas where there is reliance on UK business.

Not sure you meant former but do you not think the EU will  also act based on financial stability? It's about to lose its 2nd biggest net contributor, that's a massive blow. They must have an eye on that surely.

[Baron von Lotsov]

Well, I do contemplate them Nick but it's extremely likely that the future relationship with the EU is going to have to be dealt with before those deals get signed.  



The EU needs the UK market but also needs to protect the central element of its economic integrity.  In a toss up between losing significant business from the UK, versus the disruption likely to arise if it compromises on its integrity — they're going to opt for the former every day of the week.  Even if no deal was reached on Services, the EU can simply say "here have all the access to the Single Market you want" and then over time tighten that access at its own pace — gradually recalibrating any areas where there is reliance on UK business.

They are not mutually exclusive. Business with the UK, due to the size of its economy, will without doubt improve the economic integrity of the EU significantly, meaning their income would be greater. So it is not really sensible to do a  big either/or decision. It must be pragmatic. Both sides gain from doing business, so business will be done.

[Conchúr]

You left out the fact that the EU need the UK market and we get a good deal. Or the UK signs deals with China, USA, Japan and Brasil. These are positives you never contemplate.

Well, I do contemplate them Nick but it's extremely likely that the future relationship with the EU is going to have to be dealt with before those deals get signed.  



The EU needs the UK market but also needs to protect the central element of its economic integrity.  In a toss up between losing significant business from the UK, versus the disruption likely to arise if it compromises on its integrity — they're going to opt for the former every day of the week.  Even if no deal was reached on Services, the EU can simply say "here have all the access to the Single Market you want" and then over time tighten that access at its own pace — gradually recalibrating any areas where there is reliance on UK business.

[Borchester]

You left out the fact that the EU need the UK market and we get a good deal. Or the UK signs deals with China, USA, Japan and Brasil. These are positives you never contemplate.

You do a bit of import and exporting Nick. How do you expect to be affected by Brexit?

[Nick]

Precisely. Offering a super-beneficial cherry-picking agreement on Services does not serve the EU's interests because it threatens its integrity — it would literally undermine the whole point of the Single Market.



This is why I said a few pages ago that Johnson might look to do a deal with the EU that excludes Services.  There are possible advantages to doing this for Johnson:



(a) he gets to say he got a Deal within his timeline with no or negligible alignment;

(b) despite the Deal excluding Services and therefore being massively incomplete (given its importance to the UK), the Johnson spin machine sells it as a triumph and this becomes the "official Brexit deal".

(c) the pressure to 'get a Deal' will be gone and Johnson declares "Brexit is done".  People cheer and their fervency dies — having obtensibly gotten what they want;

(d) free from the pressure, the Tory government moves on to Services which may involve significant gradual alignment to ensure good access to the EU market. The bankers in London won't complain and the government knows that the Sun and the Express probably don't see "UK MORE OR LESS REJOINS MIFID FINANCIAL REGULATIONS" as a headline that will sell by the bucketload.



Suppose I'll have to prepare myself for accusations of predicting the future, rather than just being some guy offering opinions on things.

You left out the fact that the EU need the UK market and we get a good deal. Or the UK signs deals with China, USA, Japan and Brasil. These are positives you never contemplate.

[Conchúr]

That's a good question. With other EU countries like Hungary and Spain threatening to have a referendum the EU might be in self preservation mode.

Precisely. Offering a super-beneficial cherry-picking agreement on Services does not serve the EU's interests because it threatens its integrity — it would literally undermine the whole point of the Single Market.



This is why I said a few pages ago that Johnson might look to do a deal with the EU that excludes Services.  There are possible advantages to doing this for Johnson:



(a) he gets to say he got a Deal within his timeline with no or negligible alignment;

(b) despite the Deal excluding Services and therefore being massively incomplete (given its importance to the UK), the Johnson spin machine sells it as a triumph and this becomes the "official Brexit deal".

(c) the pressure to 'get a Deal' will be gone and Johnson declares "Brexit is done".  People cheer and their fervency dies — having obtensibly gotten what they want;

(d) free from the pressure, the Tory government moves on to Services which may involve significant gradual alignment to ensure good access to the EU market. The bankers in London won't complain and the government knows that the Sun and the Express probably don't see "UK MORE OR LESS REJOINS MIFID FINANCIAL REGULATIONS" as a headline that will sell by the bucketload.



Suppose I'll have to prepare myself for accusations of predicting the future, rather than just being some guy offering opinions on things.

[Nick]

The continuing conundrum johnson faces....









Wonder who will blink first?



https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/01/eu-commission-chief-warns-uk-trade-talks-200108113709382.html?utm_source=website&utm_medium=article_page&utm_campaign=read_more_links">https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/01/ ... more_links">https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/01/eu-commission-chief-warns-uk-trade-talks-200108113709382.html?utm_source=website&utm_medium=article_page&utm_campaign=read_more_links

That's a good question. With other EU countries like Hungary and Spain threatening to have a referendum the EU might be in self preservation mode.

[Thomas]

The transition period

Under the terms of the Withdrawal Agreement agreed by the government and the EU in October 2019, the UK will enter a transition period when it leaves the EU. This was the same in the Withdrawal Agreement negotiated by Theresa May's government which was voted down by parliament three times.



The purpose of the transition period is to provide time for the UK and the EU to negotiate on what their future relationship will look like.



During the transition period the UK won't be a member of the EU but will still have to abide by its rules. For example, the UK would still have to contribute to the EU budget until 2020 along with paying for any other financial commitments made as an EU member. The latest estimates put the total 'divorce bill' at £33 billion. If the transition period is extended then extra payments may need to be made and these would be decided on by a joint UK-EU committee.



As with the agreement Theresa May's government put forward, the end date for the transition period is set at the 31 December 2020. It is possible the transition period could be extended for one or two years—provided that is settled before 1 July 2020.



As for how likely that will be, Jill Rutter at UK in a Changing Europe says: "At the moment, no one is talking about an extension to the transition period, but with so much of the negotiating time already eaten up, and the need to get all the new arrangements for the NI border with GB in place, it may prove unavoidable."

[/b]



https://fullfact.org/europe/no-deal-brexit-2020-end-transition/">https://fullfact.org/europe/no-deal-bre ... ransition/">https://fullfact.org/europe/no-deal-brexit-2020-end-transition/

[Thomas]

"Johnson has taken a party and a government that was on the edge of a nervous breakdown in the summer of 2019 to an overall majority in a legislature than now stands little chance of stopping it doing pretty much whatever it wants," said Tim Bale, professor of politics at Queen Mary University of London.

[/b]

"The big challenge for the PM is the fact that there are still a bunch of Conservative MPs who would like to see what they call 'a clean break' from the EU, rather than a comprehensive free-trade deal which maintains a degree of alignment with [the EU]," Bale said.

[/b]



https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/01/uk-parliament-approves-boris-johnson-brexit-deal-200109144917032.html">https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/01/ ... 17032.html">https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/01/uk-parliament-approves-boris-johnson-brexit-deal-200109144917032.html



So i think a BRINO if that is indeed johnson and the eu`s ultimate aim is going to be an extremely hard sell if not nigh on impossible.

[Thomas]

The continuing conundrum johnson faces....

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson wants to agree on a new economic relationship with the world's largest trading bloc by the end of 2020 - but has signalled that he does not wish to follow EU rules and standards.



This could become an obstacle.



For Brexit supporters, one of the main reasons to leave the EU is to avoid regulation and red tape, which they say stifle business and enterprise.



Hardliners in Johnson's own party and other eurosceptics will not accept leaving the EU on paper while still being bound by its bureaucracy.

[/b]



Wonder who will blink first?



https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/01/eu-commission-chief-warns-uk-trade-talks-200108113709382.html?utm_source=website&utm_medium=article_page&utm_campaign=read_more_links">https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/01/ ... more_links">https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/01/eu-commission-chief-warns-uk-trade-talks-200108113709382.html?utm_source=website&utm_medium=article_page&utm_campaign=read_more_links

[Thomas]

Think your post just about summed it up Thomas,despite all his supposed happiness for Ireland he seems angry and frustrated at the elections turn of events and still trying (despite his protestations to the contrary) depict the leave voters as clueless and portraying brexit as a disaster,even when you point out we are prepared for a possible hit on leaving still not satisfied. :shrg:  

I dont know how clear i can be to conor , but i am not in any way trying to stop him or anyone else discussing brexit or wider politics on this political forum.



At the same time , i am perfectly entitled to question his motives  , and why a lot of things he says ( for example ireland getting what it wants by conors own admission but him still no being happy?) dont add up.



If scotland was getting what it wants from brexit , scottish indy , then personally i wouldnt give a flying feck what england and the eu argue about or what happens.



I would be saying all the best boys good luck in future , and cracking on with my own business. :-?

[cromwell]

Think your post just about summed it up Thomas,despite all his supposed happiness for Ireland he seems angry and frustrated at the elections turn of events and still trying (despite his protestations to the contrary) depict the leave voters as clueless and portraying brexit as a disaster,even when you point out we are prepared for a possible hit on leaving still not satisfied. :shrg:  

[Thomas]

Another post laden with astounding hypocrisy, in half the post you criticise me for trying to discuss the issues inherent in the future relationship while in the other half you ....well....try to discuss the exact same thing.

Sigh.#



New year , same old shit from conor.



Where is the hypocrisy conor? Where have i said you cannot discuss brexit or any issues relating to it?



Didnt you see this part of my previous post...

Where?



I welcome you talking about brexit

Discuss away conor. I dont know who you think is attempting to stop you discussing brexit , but it certainly isnt me.

As for me being in meltdown, well, the Withdrawal Agreement that Johnson is now free to ratify contains the very things I have argued for as regards Northern Ireland — in even more definitive fashion than May's deal.

Excellent , so what are you moaning about?



So if ireland/northern ireland are getting the things you want, which is good news and brilliant all round , provides me with more ammunition for scottish indy  , and save the english/uk taxpayer £11 billion hopefully if/when reunification occurs , what are you moaning about?



What is there to discuss from your "irish " point of view?



which leads me back to what i have said in my earlier post and what i have said repeatedly...

I welcome you talking about brexit , i merely criticise and question the motives behind a so called irishman in dublin desperate for england not to leave the eu.

You as a non english citizen without even a vote residing in a foreign country are powerless to stop england leaving the eu , and by your own admission you have gotten the next best thing , what you wanted for ireland. So what is the problem? You arent happy , and i was wondering why that is?

It also looks set to maintain and even encourage further cross-border integration, which I believe helps to set us up nicely for a decade which I believe may be a historic one for Irish nationalism.

Fantastic news....and...?

My views on the Irish border, where I argued with absolute consistency that the UK would never get the type of Brexit it claimed to want without compromising on the internal UK customs market and accepting special status for NI — well — I have been emphatically vindicated. With the DUP now no longer in a position to shoot this down, this is even more the case. So if me being in meltdown involves me being vindicated, well I guess I'll take that !

Excellent news. You got what you want , i got what i want , the english get what they want. The only moaners seem to be british unionists.



Again , wheres the problem? :-?

Now, as is characteristic of you, when you actually calm yourself down and stop spitting venom, you actually make sensible and reasonable points. You correctly point out that there is a potential danger of BRINO dressed up as a pure Brexit and — if only you could dial the anger down a bit more often to show the logical consistency which I am sure you are capable of — there is an interesting and important discussion to be had.

It is. I am perfectly calm , so i have no idea why you wish to constantly portray me as otherwise.



BRINO isnt a problem for me  , you or anyone else. Its a problem for the english conservatives , and brexiters.



I have little doubt johnson and his party will try and serve some sort of BRINO as the settled will of the english people , and i also have little doubt that should they try , they will get annihilated in the process.



Again so far i fail to see where the contention is in anything you say?

Boris Johnson has a commanding majority to push through all kinds of legislation over the next 5 years. He is is free from DUP interference on Northern Ireland and has a powerful position against the Nuclear Brexiteers which May did not have. The Brexiteer position on this forum is that this is great — and in many ways it is if you are a Leaver.

It is. Brexiters position as i understand it over the last few years has been to massively criticise the tories and wider parliament for reneging on what people voted for in 2016.



...but the tories had yet again a get out clause. They blamed remainers within the party , their previous lacklustre leader , and the wider parliament.



All three of those issues are now dealt with as you say , and brexiters have once again , rightly or wrongly loaned the tories their votes to get brexit done.



To my mind this is the tories last chance , if they fail , or try and sell off some BRINO , then they are quite simply going to be toast. No amount of excuses in the future will save them.

The Brexiteer position on this forum is that this is great — and in many ways it is if you are a Leaver. But If you even look through this thread, you can see that the Leavers are actually incredibly reticent to offer any opinion on what they would personally like to see Johnson try to achieve for the UK's future relationship

maybe in this thread,  but i already argued earlier dont you think that might be down to not being reticent , but being tired of repeating the same thing over and over that they have said now for four years?



You know ,and i know their red lines. Do we need to keep going over them expecting a different answer?

There seems to be a level of complacency on here as to the ability of Johnson (with his commanding majority) to say one thing and do another — to have complex agreements on trade which he calls Hard Brexit but which in closer inspection involve some or perhaps even significant deference to the influence of the EU regulatory and legal system.

i agree.



That complacency could soon turn to outright anger if brexit isnt enacted. I have already pointed out what we are getting at the end of january is merely BRINO , and that the uk is still stuck with abiding by eu treaties we were told would no longer apply at the end of the article 50 period.



People are merely gathering their strength and waiting to see how johnson blows , and which way his government turns. I expect the fireworks to be flying by summer if it looks like a tory sell out. If hard brexit is to be avoided , then from what i have read they have to have a further "transition period" agreed by the end of july.



Im looking forward to hearing the tory excuses then is that does happen , and the forthcoming infighting in the tory party as the ERG get wind of a potential johnson betrayal.



All conjecture at this stage , so lets wait and see.

Leavers do not seem to be appreciating that an FTA with the EU will absolutely and inevitably involve some form of agreement over equivalence or alignment.

No thats your interpretation yet again. From what i have been told on here and our old forum time and again , brexiters will not tolerate any alignment that involved paying vast sums of money to the eu , accepting eu rules and ecj jurisdiction , FOM and any sort of customs union.



They have said this time and again , and have told us they would rather cut all ties and hard brexit than accept alignment of this sort.



Again , we have to wait and see what johnson goes for.

A deal on Services for example would involve some deference to EU law and regulation

Well good luck with that. You also have to factor into the equation the "face saving " logic. Any sort of backtracking and BRINO is going to be met worldwide with hoots of derision and laughter at england/uk as they cave into european pressure. The piss taking will be remorseless.

If Leavers don't consider these realities, all they are doing is giving more power to Johnson to achieve BRINO and spin it as Hard Brexit.

how so?



Thats a bit of a false dichotomy and large leap again of logic.

[Conchúr]

What hypocrisy is that then doggy?





 ::



What ?



Who made this rule up? Certainly wasnt me.







I could , but i wont , as i couldnt give a feck.



What i will say is after this latest extension , now called a transition , if the english get a BRINO , then they are going to receive some utter stick and be the laughing stock of the world.





Personally speaking i would say as many people have since day one , that if England "leaves" the eu , and still comes under the ECJ , is still in a CU , still pays in massive sums (£8.9 billion at least over the next 11 months)and is still subject to FOM , or some form of it dressed up as something else , then clearly this goes against the grain of what brexiters on this forum , and elsehwere told us leaving the eu was all about.



We had brexiters like stevlin tell us about there being no need to pay astronomical amounts of money to trade with the eu , borchester telling us it was all about taking back control and not being subject to european laws and jurisdiction of the ECJ , streetwalker saying many a time how he was extremely opposed to FOM etc etc.



So i would say any level of alignment that gives all or some of the above issues would be a BRINO.



Indeed , even arch europhiles like blair said remaining in a CU with the eu would take away the only aspect he ever saw of worth in the whole brexit affair , the ability for the uk to make its own trade deals as we have discussed many a time.



If the johnson government trys to sell all or some variation of the above , it will indeed show where the true power actually lays , in brussells rather than london , and england will get a ribbing accordingly as i have always said.







Why ask me?



Surely you need to direct your question to an ....english brexiter?





Where?



I welcome you talking about brexit , i merely criticise and question the motives behind a so called irishman in dublin desperate for england not to leave the eu.



Your great hope in the remain camp based in england winning the general election in december has now obviously been crushed , so you are now onto using trade negotiations to browbeat the english into accepting BRINO .



If that happens , then quite obviously farage and co will be out in the streets organising a mass uprising. I would then expect the conservatives to suffer the same fate as labour in the next GE.



Dont listen to me though . You carry on as you are conor , its all good fun listening to you rant away in total meltdown.







Well thats a big leap in logic conor. Maybe they are tired rather than terrified of reiterating the same thing over and over to you.?

Another post laden with astounding hypocrisy, in half the post you criticise me for trying to discuss the issues inherent in the future relationship while in the other half you ....well....try to discuss the exact same thing.  As for me being in meltdown, well, the Withdrawal Agreement that Johnson is now free to ratify contains the very things I have argued for as regards Northern Ireland — in even more definitive fashion than May's deal. It also looks set to maintain and even encourage further cross-border integration, which I believe helps to set us up nicely for a decade which I believe may be a historic one for Irish nationalism.  



My views on the Irish border, where I argued with absolute consistency that the UK would never get the type of Brexit it claimed to want without compromising on the internal UK customs market and accepting special status for NI — well — I have been emphatically vindicated. With the DUP now no longer in a position to shoot this down, this is even more the case. So if me being in meltdown involves me being vindicated, well I guess I'll take that !



Now, as is characteristic of you, when you actually calm yourself down and stop spitting venom, you actually make sensible and reasonable points.  You correctly point out that there is a potential danger of BRINO dressed up as a pure Brexit and — if only you could dial the anger down a bit more often to show the logical consistency which I am sure you are capable of — there is an interesting and important discussion to be had.



Boris Johnson has a commanding majority to push through all kinds of legislation over the next 5 years.  He is is free from DUP interference on Northern Ireland and has a powerful position against the Nuclear Brexiteers which May did not have. The Brexiteer position on this forum is that this is great — and in many ways it is if you are a Leaver.  But If you even look through this thread, you can see that the Leavers are actually incredibly reticent to offer any opinion on what they would personally like to see Johnson try to achieve for the UK's future relationship. Instead they opt to hold back, waiting to see what Johnson achieves before forming their opinions. There seems to be a level of complacency on here as to the ability of Johnson (with his commanding majority) to say one thing and do another — to have complex agreements on trade which he calls Hard Brexit but which in closer inspection involve some or perhaps even significant deference to the influence of the EU regulatory and legal system.



Leavers do not seem to be appreciating that an FTA with the EU will absolutely and inevitably involve some form of agreement over equivalence or alignment. That equivalence will be much more profound than, say, the deal done with Canada because geographically and commercially this makes sense.  Just as I argued regarding the Irish border that the slow remorseless tide of logic would wear down the illogical stances, the same will apply to a FTA with the EU.  A deal on Services for example would involve some deference to EU law and regulation — and may involve a position like that of Switzerland where UK law and regulation (even if it doesn't have have to incorporate EU law) will still be influenced by what is happening within the EU sphere.



If Leavers don't consider these realities, all they are doing is giving more power to Johnson to achieve BRINO and spin it as Hard Brexit.