What is really happening in the Ukraine Conflict?

[Nick]

You might note that the latest tech failed to subdue Afghanistan too.
That our own adventures in Afghanistan went along much the same route as the Russian's did.

You might also note that the latest tech didn't win it for Germany.
There is a counter to it. Superior military industrial capacity. Lower tech in larger numbers.


The key to this one, the lessons learnt the hard way in Afghanistan perhaps, is that they are going to be unable to hold an area with an unfriendly populace.
And I don't expect the Russians ever intended to.
They just want to liberate/annex the area's where the people want them. All the rest is a nonsense put out by their enemies.
This war ends when the best defensible lines are found over the areas that are pro Russian. A calculation that can only be determined in battle.


Even if Kiev manages to take those areas, it can't expect to hold them any more than it could Afghanistan.
And vice versa.
Russia doesn't want Kiev. It doesn't want Odessa. It never did.
They could have occupied all of Georgia. They didn't want to. Just Ossetia and Abkhazia. Where they are wanted.

NATO's exploits in Afghanistan were for a specific reason, they weren't fighting a war there. Also, Russia has never had the latest cutting edge tech because they work alone and never trust anyone or consult. 

I was due to fly back to Russia this week but am on hold because the multi billion dollar group I'm working with can't pay it's bills. Russia is on its knees financially, so much so that was asked to bring thousands of dollars back with me to sell to the people I'm working with so they can use them when the go on holiday to Turkey, one of the few places Russians can fly to directly. 

[Baff]

You might note that the latest tech failed to subdue Afghanistan too.
That our own adventures in Afghanistan went along much the same route as the Russian's did.

You might also note that the latest tech didn't win it for Germany.
There is a counter to it. Superior military industrial capacity. Lower tech in larger numbers.


The key to this one, the lessons learnt the hard way in Afghanistan perhaps, is that they are going to be unable to hold an area with an unfriendly populace.
And I don't expect the Russians ever intended to.
They just want to liberate/annex the area's where the people want them. All the rest is a nonsense put out by their enemies.
This war ends when the best defensible lines are found over the areas that are pro Russian. A calculation that can only be determined in battle.


Even if Kiev manages to take those areas, it can't expect to hold them any more than it could Afghanistan.
And vice versa.
Russia doesn't want Kiev. It doesn't want Odessa. It never did.
They could have occupied all of Georgia. They didn't want to. Just Ossetia and Abkhazia. Where they are wanted.

[Nick]

Looking at the Russian wars of the last 120 years, the over riding characteristic is that they keep on coming. And right now they have the back handed advantage that their armies have to get better because they can't get much worse.

Anyway, the spring Rasputitsa should be over in two or three months, so we will soon be able to see whatever Putin has up his sleeve, if anything.

They fought the Afghans for years and couldn't beat a bunch of hillbillies, how they going to beat the Ukraine armed with the latest tech?

[Baff]

Afghanistan shows clearly that they can be defeated.
They aren't undefeatable.

But the general trend is that they are just going to keep coming.
I think even if you beat them, they will just come back again.

I think this whole war is a tragedy and end result is pretty much guaranteed. It's just a question of how much destruction is going to occur on the way.
They should have backed down and removed their army from Donbass when the Russians started doing war games on their border.

I know it's appeasement.
But some people you need to appease.

I have to say that it took me by surprise when they did not. I had expected them to. That Russian sabre rattling was going to be enough.

[Borchester]

Every set back that the Russians have experienced, and there have been many, has been responded to in the exact same way.
Escalation.

At the beginning of the war Putin promised a ratchet mechanism.
And he has kept to that tactic.

Looking at the Russian wars of the last 120 years, the over riding characteristic is that they keep on coming. And right now they have the back handed advantage that their armies have to get better because they can't get much worse.

Anyway, the spring Rasputitsa should be over in two or three months, so we will soon be able to see whatever Putin has up his sleeve, if anything.

[Baff]

Every set back that the Russians have experienced, and there have been many, has been responded to in the exact same way.
Escalation.

At the beginning of the war Putin promised a ratchet mechanism.
And he has kept to that tactic.

[Sampanviking]

The war is going that well for Russia that they've once again replaced their top general. After 3 months in the job.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64235713

Really? Looks more like beefing up to me.
Surovikin is the head of the all Russian Air and Missile forces
He is being joined in command by General Oleg Salykov, who is head of all Russian ground forces, while the whole operation is being overseen by the man who is there boss already, Valerie Gerassiov, who is the overall military commander of all Russian forces and who is Deputy Minister of Defence.
I understand that Gerassimov has his own Deputy acting as his liaison in Ukraine.

This means that pretty much the full military top brass is now running the show and that these commanders have Political access all the way to the top.

I would say this is either preparation for either a second front to open very soon or a move towards far more combined operations that previously seen so far.
Either way it supports the idea of a major escalation coming very soon.

[Sheepy]

I read the Torygraph each day and it's Ukraine coverage is highly partisan.
To the point where it is difficult to read.
This stuff is almost word for word regurgitation of Ukrainian government released stories.
Really pathetic journalism.

Essentially it's propaganda. One side of the story told to the exclusion of the other.
The Sun is the same but super jingoism.
Endless pictures of Russians being killed. Hooray!


BRICS countries tend to be pro Russian and their media reflects this.

I watch a couple of Ukrainians channels.
That guy Denys and my favourite one, Operator Starski.
I love Operator Starski. He's an actively serving press officer in the Ukrainian army.
On the job.

But so sarcastic.
Really funny guy.

I don't watch all the Russian arselicky channels.
The Duran and Colonel Macgregor etc. I used to but it got old.

For pro Russian I go with the Indian news services. Short and sweet.


Perun is quite interesting.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q9w17Ne1S0M

An Australian military economist.
Openly partisan (pro Ukraine) but interesting subject matters.
Usually on the economics of war in it's various aspects as demonstrated by the Ukraine war.
Unfortunately despite that this is great academic stuff, the partisan aspect has worn me down and I can no longer sit through an hour or two of it at a time.
It got old.

Every day is a school day, I reckon the Smurphoid is gnashing his teeth in the background false or not, he has suddenly realised he is out of his depth. 

[Sheepy]

I use credible sources that use facts and satellite imaging not fairy stories on YouTube.

Except others are telling you to get a balanced approach you need to do your homework yourself, which it seems others are willing to do.

[Nick]

The war is going that well for Russia that they've once again replaced their top general. After 3 months in the job. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64235713

[papasmurf]

feel free to share then

I have a motorised satellite dish so despite RT being banned in Britain I can still access some RT transmissions.
The Russian soldiers shown in what are blatant propaganda programs from the "war zone" in Ukraine, all look to be of pensionable age and one step away from a nursing home. (The "victims" of Ukrainian "aggression" are all of a similar age.)
If those "soldiers" are representative of Putin's front line troops he has serious problems.

[Sampanviking]

I read the Torygraph each day and it's Ukraine coverage is highly partisan.
To the point where it is difficult to read.
This stuff is almost word for word regurgitation of Ukrainian government released stories.
Really pathetic journalism.

Essentially it's propaganda. One side of the story told to the exclusion of the other.
The Sun is the same but super jingoism.
Endless pictures of Russians being killed. Hooray!


BRICS countries tend to be pro Russian and their media reflects this.

I watch a couple of Ukrainians channels.
That guy Denys and my favourite one, Operator Starski.
I love Operator Starski. He's an actively serving press officer in the Ukrainian army.
On the job.

But so sarcastic.
Really funny guy.

I don't watch all the Russian arselicky channels.
The Duran and Colonel Macgregor etc. I used to but it got old.

For pro Russian I go with the Indian news services. Short and sweet.


Perun is quite interesting.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q9w17Ne1S0M

An Australian military economist.
Openly partisan (pro Ukraine) but interesting subject matters.
Usually on the economics of war in it's various aspects as demonstrated by the Ukraine war.
Unfortunately despite that this is great academic stuff, the partisan aspect has worn me down and I can no longer sit through an hour or two of it at a time.
It got old.

I gave up on the Daily Tel-Avivagraph a long time ago. I also bet that if the photos on SM are anything to go by, a lot of the photos are actually Ukrainian casualties being touted as Russian to the gullible.

I like to watch the Military Summary Channel, the guy is Belarussian I believe and ex military. He has a good understanding of the locations and the geography and how it translates into action on the ground. I find him quite balanced and if he leans towards support for Russia, I find his assessments of Russian capabilities quite cautious and if anything overstates Ukrainian capabilities.

Brian Berletic and his New Atlas Channel is worth a look. He is ex US Marine Corps and very good at dissecting the US Military Aid packages and evaluating the value and problems of the systems being donated to Ukraine.

Seems that the last holdouts in Soledar have surrendered and that Russian forces and now moving through the salient in all directions.

[Baff]

Just because someone contradicts the "Official" Western narrative does not make them pro Russian or a Kremlin bot or whatever. Given also that the Western narrative is probably the biggest load of unexpurgated bullocks ever produced in the history of warfare, it means that anyone with even an ounce of impartiality is going to be vilified by the West.

The reality is out there and Pappy and you just need to get off your bone idle backside and look for it. (Spoiler alert - you wont find it in the paper or on telly)

This is an excellent analysis from last week. Most of what he predicted has come true or is happening right now

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eqYOmY12YHU

I read the Torygraph each day and it's Ukraine coverage is highly partisan.
To the point where it is difficult to read.
This stuff is almost word for word regurgitation of Ukrainian government released stories.
Really pathetic journalism. 

Essentially it's propaganda. One side of the story told to the exclusion of the other.
The Sun is the same but super jingoism. 
Endless pictures of Russians being killed. Hooray!


BRICS countries tend to be pro Russian and their media reflects this.

I watch a couple of Ukrainians channels. 
That guy Denys and my favourite one, Operator Starski.
I love Operator Starski. He's an actively serving press officer in the Ukrainian army.
On the job.

But so sarcastic. 
Really funny guy.

I don't watch all the Russian arselicky channels.
The Duran and Colonel Macgregor etc. I used to but it got old.

For pro Russian I go with the Indian news services. Short and sweet.


Perun is quite interesting.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q9w17Ne1S0M

An Australian military economist.
Openly partisan (pro Ukraine) but interesting subject matters.
Usually on the economics of war in it's various aspects as demonstrated by the Ukraine war. 
Unfortunately despite that this is great academic stuff, the partisan aspect has worn me down and I can no longer sit through an hour or two of it at a time.
It got old.

[Sampanviking]

I use credible sources that use facts and satellite imaging not fairy stories on YouTube.

feel free to share then

[papasmurf]

The reality is out there and Pappy and you just need to get off your bone idle backside and look for it. (Spoiler alert - you wont find it in the paper or on telly)

I use credible sources that use facts and satellite imaging not fairy stories on YouTube.