What is really happening in the Ukraine Conflict?

[Sampanviking]

How remembers the Great Kherson counteroffensive?
It was being talked about for months and always presented with great fanfare
Then four to five days ago it started and after some initial news coverage, it has virtually totally disappeared from every news bulletin.

I am not surprised. The offensive is still ongoing but even if only half of what I have read or seen in relation to it is true, it has proved to be a military debacle on a colossal scale.

The Ukrainians launched assaults at points all along the South Western Front of the Russian held territory north of the Dnieper
Most of these assaults achieved very limited progress and have since been forced to retreat, allowing the Russians to recover their original positions.
One point in the middle of the front, where the Ukrainians had an existing bridgehead over the Ingutz river managed to penetrate in a long and narrow salient for some fifteen kilometers into the Russian held territory.
This is however is looking more and more like a Russian trap.
The Ukrainians swarmed over the river using three new pontoon bridges which the Russians made no attempt to destroy.
The Ukrainian forces headed for some key strategic villages and roads but found themselves blocked at all turns.
Finally they found themselves in this narrow salient in open flat Steppe farmland.
In effect they had formed their own cauldron for the Russian artillery and Air Force
Then yesterday the Russians blew up all three pontoons simultaneously leaving the Ukrainian force trapped in the cauldron and facing massive Russian counter attacks.

Ukrainian casualties are apparently off the scale with an estimated 3000 killed already and many more wounded
Everywhere in Southern Ukraine is talking about hospitals overflowing with casualties, fleets of ambulances rushing through city streets and public appeals being made for people to donate blood.

The Offensive has not been called off and the Ukraine is moving ever more of its reserves into the front and throwing them into the salients.
It looks like real do or die stuff.
A lot of commentators are saying that they believe that this is a politically ordered offensive against the advice wishes of the military and that they main strategy now is to keep throwing men into the breach in the hope that Russia runs out of Artillery and Ammunition before the Ukraine runs out of troops!

At the end of the day, this is exactly what I described just the other day, that Ukrainian infantry with far less armour than they need, without any meaning full artillery or air cover are advancing slowly in open Steppe against a well prepared enemy that enjoys overwhelming fire power and Air Supremacy. The results being highly predictable.

On top of this we also had the bizarre Commando assault across the Dnieper to try and capture the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Station, presumably while the Russian military presence was reduced during the IAEA inspectors visit. It was another debacle with many commandos killed or captured.
A lot of speculation that the Russians knew all about the operation and waiting for it. A lot of people are saying similar things about the Kherson offensive itself!

Just found an up to date map of the encirclement from RY Bar

[Barry]

A no fly NOTAM order has been issued for Novaya Zemlya island. There is a rumour this is for a Russian nuclear test.

[srb7677]

Former head of the UK Armed Forces Lord Dannat telling President Zelensky they must surrender

Good job he wasn't advising Churchill in 1940 then, wasn't it.

The French in 1940 of course did exactly that and all they gained was occupation and tyranny.

Any people has a right to fight for freedom against foreign invasion by a nation ruled by a murderous despot. And it is right for others to support their cause with arms and ammunition.

[Sheepy]

But I don't want to be cold and hungry, Winter is coming, what if we apologise to Vlad for treating him like a mug punter, I am getting the feeling you have bitten off more than you can chew this time in your globalist paradise.

[Sampanviking]

I don't usually post graphic but this video clip is a good indicator of who the ground battle is really going.
This is a Russian squad storming a Ukrainian trench near Pisky a western suburb of Donetsk city close to the Airport
Scenes like this can be found every day as the Russians slowly chew through the massed and layered fortifications.

https://twitter.com/AZmilitary1/status/1564213422723588096

[Sean]

We were led to believe this would happen in days. Still hasn't happened in 6 months. Doesn't look much like happening any time soon either right now.

Though in the world according to Sampan, everything is going swimmingly and according to plan. He who kept assuring us that the Russians had no plans to invade Ukraine because they repeatedly said so and the west was lying. Until the west was proved right and Putin revealed to be the liar when he did exactly what he said he wouldnt do and the west said he was planning to do. Facts which Sampan conveniently sidestepped as he suddenly switched into defending the invasion mode.

I recognise a propagandist as opposed to an honest broker a mile off. I think most of us do which is why we raely bother reading or responding to the propaganda anymore.

Former head of the UK Armed Forces Lord Dannat telling President Zelensky they must surrender as the Russians are going to win which will save many lives , while back in  the UK , the pride of our navy , Aircraft carrier HMS Prince of Wales lies broken down in the channel among sewage filled water in broken tory Britain.

[Sheepy]

I dare say that it will be only a matter of time before Putin's warrior march triumphantly into Kyiv's  Independence Square

I dare say you are probably right but it won't be easy for him and in the meantime, he has learnt a lot from the Tories using shell companies to hide their assets and using others names to buy stakes in commodities. You cannot say that lad isn't a fast learner and knows how to take advantage.

[srb7677]

I dare say that it will be only a matter of time before Putin's warrior march triumphantly into Kyiv's  Independence Square

We were led to believe this would happen in days. Still hasn't happened in 6 months. Doesn't look much like happening any time soon either right now.

Though in the world according to Sampan, everything is going swimmingly and according to plan. He who kept assuring us that the Russians had no plans to invade Ukraine because they repeatedly said so and the west was lying. Until the west was proved right and Putin revealed to be the liar when he did exactly what he said he wouldnt do and the west said he was planning to do. Facts which Sampan conveniently sidestepped as he suddenly switched into defending the invasion mode.

I recognise a propagandist as opposed to an honest broker a mile off. I think most of us do which is why we raely bother reading or responding to the propaganda anymore.

[Borchester]

I dare say that it will be only a matter of time before Putin's warrior march triumphantly into Kyiv's  Independence Square

[Sampanviking]

The Russian advance is slow and methodical and; especially on the Donbas, is clearing through trenches and other fixed defences that have been put in place by Military Engineers over the course of the last eight years.

First the artillery blows an entrechment to pieces, then the ground forces move in to take control and finish off anyone left that is still resisting.

This is the case throughout much of the front line, but Ukrainian trenches outside of Peski are a special case in point being old, substantial and in depth, to a degree only to be found in Korea along the DMZ. This is footage from the fields south west of Peski along the old line of contact.

Not graphic but lt leaves nothing to the imagination.

https://twitter.com/owarino_outsuke/status/1561900793196072960

[Sampanviking]

For those that don't know, Scott Ritter is a former US Marine Corps Intelligence Officer and UN Weapons Inspector.

In this interview he gives his take on the tactics and situation of the Ukraine War

https://twitter.com/JosBtrigga/status/1561925925855428608

[Sampanviking]

Seems only one map per post!!

[Sampanviking]

Good news for you waiting for the long anticipated offensive in the Kherson region, its started!

Not so good news for you is that its a Russian offensive and heading towards Nykolaiv

Maps from West sources map which is an official Ukrainian publication and which always underestimates the limiit of Russian advances and zones of control

[Sheepy]

But then he is probably lying and so is the Daily Mail. They aren't preparing for real conflict or anything.
Chinese troops will travel to Russia for military exercises with India for eastern war games | Daily Mail Online

[Sheepy]

He said any attack on Crimea would escalate things so they attacked Crimea, living dangerously for a country already in ruins.