What is really happening in the Ukraine Conflict?

[Sheepy]

The Americans desperately want this to be Russia's Vietnam, I know that because they told me, Biden is still smarting, by the Russians and Chinese backing of the communists so it all depends how far the Russians will go, it is a risky business war which the military industrial complex will always push for more. I would guess the Russians know that anyway.

[cromwell]

At the moment we'll see nothing at all because that is exactly what is being reported. Nothing. Nothing except for queen this and king that.

It is as if the British media have collectively decided that all other news can do one for a while.

Well got this from itv news
https://www.itv.com/news/2022-09-11/russian-forces-pull-back-from-kharkiv-as-ukrainian-offensive-gains-ground
BBC have Ukraine war section too

[srb7677]

We'll see in due course.

At the moment we'll see nothing at all because that is exactly what is being reported. Nothing. Nothing except for queen this and king that.

It is as if the British media have collectively decided that all other news can do one for a while.

[Borchester]

We'll see in due course.

Hopefully we will.

Usually I assume that both sides in this war are lying, but according to the guys on the link, the Ukrainians have just wiped the Russians' dials and the Kremlin is not saying anything otherwise.

As Ollie says, we shall see

https://archive.ph/3efxv#selection-779.0-779.91

[cromwell]

Kharkov has been a battleground in previous wars.
The vast majority of this Ukrainian force are poorly trained and largely on foot, the more the Russians fall back the more strung out these forces become and less kinetic force they carry with them. All the time long range Russian artillery and aviation are taking a terrific toll on the advancing Ukrainians.
All of which is being done just to grab a few good headlines and to justify throwing more of our money and resources away to sustain this debacle.

The Ukrainians are literally throwing in the full reserve into this operation. So they may take for a while a small chunk of territory but do so at horrendous cost.

The other counter offensive is Kherson, but this has been effectively crushed and the most of the initial gains are now lost, even though Kiev is throwing large amounts of infantry into the grinder, just to lock Russian forces in place.

The Kharkov offensive seems bigger but will probably follow the same ultimate pattern. Naturally the Western media will fall silent once the news turns sour, just as they did and continue to do so at Kherson.

We'll see in due course.

[Sampanviking]

Overblown or not the Russians are regrouping ??

Kharkov has been a battleground in previous wars.
The vast majority of this Ukrainian force are poorly trained and largely on foot, the more the Russians fall back the more strung out these forces become and less kinetic force they carry with them. All the time long range Russian artillery and aviation are taking a terrific toll on the advancing Ukrainians.
All of which is being done just to grab a few good headlines and to justify throwing more of our money and resources away to sustain this debacle.

The Ukrainians are literally throwing in the full reserve into this operation. So they may take for a while a small chunk of territory but do so at horrendous cost.

The other counter offensive is Kherson, but this has been effectively crushed and the most of the initial gains are now lost, even though Kiev is throwing large amounts of infantry into the grinder, just to lock Russian forces in place.

The Kharkov offensive seems bigger but will probably follow the same ultimate pattern. Naturally the Western media will fall silent once the news turns sour, just as they did and continue to do so at Kherson.

[cromwell]

Overblown or not the Russians are regrouping ??

[Sampanviking]

Lots of hysteria from social media types on both sides today, but even the Ukrainians are admitting that many claims are overblown
This seems to be the most accurate map I have seen today.

[Groo]

Panic

[Sampanviking]

Sampanviking how much of the information you have posted in this thread would you say has been wrong?

Depends on what you mean by wrong?
Did I think the Russians would turn left and they they turned right? Sure
Have I underestimated the degree that Kiev would pointlessly throw away the lives of its soldiers? Sure
Have I hoped to see faster progress by the Russian AF - definitely
Do I think Russia should upgrade from SMO to a proper war - yes

Have events deviated totally from expectation or anticipated course of event or outcome? No
If I misread one factor, it was the degree that NATO countries have been prepared to throw away their wealth, equipment and self interest to prolong the fighting beyond sense, reason or point.
I still don't know to what degree the West is prepared to escalate, although there is little more they can do now other than to go beyond a proxy war and declare an open war on the Russian Federation.
NATO efforts to date, have not stopped or turned the tide of the war, just massively increased Ukrainian casualties, for very little loss on the Russian and allied side. They sell it to us as a stalemate, but this is not true, as stalemate is a genuine balance of force which cannot change for either side. This is not the case as eventually, following this course that the war has followed for most of its duration, the Ukrainian forces will be degraded to the point of total collapse, while the Russian side will have fully maintained is combat capability. This is a major reason why the reckless and costly Ukrainian counter offensives have been launched as their is a small chance of upset, while the continuation of current defensive policy can only lead to certain defeat.

If you disagree, feel free to discuss.

[Nalaar]

Sampanviking how much of the information you have posted in this thread would you say has been wrong?

[Sampanviking]

Yes September is here and contrary to predictions the Ukranians aren't done for.

Just will be very soon......

Typical been away a week just as it all kicks off
The great Kherson counter offensive has done pretty much as I said it would, with the Ukraine taking horrendous levels of casualties through walking into a cauldron of their own making and suffering the consequences.
The Kharkov counter offensive is on an even bigger scale it seems, and we told "took the Russians by surprise".
I doubt this, as reports of a massive Ukrainian build up with Brigades worth of armour being "hidden" in the nuke proof underground system of Kharkov City has been circulating for weeks.

Now the Ukrainians seem to be repeating in the Kharkov district the same mistakes as they made in Kherson. Still light on armour, still light in Artillery, still light in Air Support and Air Defence.
Yes no doubt they will push through for a bit and make some noise, but already we hear about massive causalities and the advance being stopped in most points of the front.

Yes I have heard that Russian forces have withdrawn from Izium, but whether this is true or just disinformation is not yet clear.
What is of very little doubt, is that this is the last throw of the dice that the Ukraine has and that everything has now been flung into a carefully prepared cauldron, where we can expect to see exactly the same results as in the other cauldrons.

Russia is happy to trade a bit of territory for this as now they can eliminate that forces in a matter of weeks that may have taken months to destroy otherwise.

SO why is Ukraine doing it? Because the heavily filtered highlights that come through the MSM will be enough for our masters to convince you that throwing away even more of our wealth and our military capacity is somehow worth it.

The big question is whether the Russian third army Corps has been committed to either of these Ukrainian offensives. If they are not and the local Russian and allied forces are neatly containing the Ukrainian offensives, then Kiev is potentially in huge trouble if this group starts its own offensive on another part of the front....

[cromwell]

Yes September is here and contrary to predictions the Ukranians aren't done for.

[Sheepy]

The situation continues and the positions of the forces can be described as fluid.
This really means that the Ukrainians continue to throw in wave after wave of their reserves and and that the initial shook of their arrival at the front usually causes the Russians to give ground.
Its never that far and as soon as the reserves are in the salient, they too become just more meat for the grinder and the Russians move forward again, until Kiev sends its next wave in.

There is little doubt that the Ukrainians are using everything they have in the South for this and I will, at this point, only note the circulating rumours that units from other fronts are also being transferred. We will see if this is true in due course. It is true that the DPR/LNR forces and other irregulars on the Donbass front have started moving forward again at multiple locations after a quiet week, so maybe these events are connected.

There can however be little doubt that the Ukrainians are being savaged in Kherson, with every regional garrison being emptied. The question of what happens once they have nothing left to send, becomes highly pertinent.

Well, I don't know about that, but I do know September is here and the gas is no longer flowing, which we asked months ago, when it happens what would you all do? the best you can come up with is as usual milking it for yourselves.

[Sampanviking]

The situation continues and the positions of the forces can be described as fluid.
This really means that the Ukrainians continue to throw in wave after wave of their reserves and and that the initial shook of their arrival at the front usually causes the Russians to give ground.
Its never that far and as soon as the reserves are in the salient, they too become just more meat for the grinder and the Russians move forward again, until Kiev sends its next wave in.

There is little doubt that the Ukrainians are using everything they have in the South for this and I will, at this point, only note the circulating rumours that units from other fronts are also being transferred. We will see if this is true in due course. It is true that the DPR/LNR forces and other irregulars on the Donbass front have started moving forward again at multiple locations after a quiet week, so maybe these events are connected.

There can however be little doubt that the Ukrainians are being savaged in Kherson, with every regional garrison being emptied. The question of what happens once they have nothing left to send, becomes highly pertinent.