What is really happening in the Ukraine Conflict?

[cromwell]

You do understand that the Special Military Operation is a legal construct in Russia that has limits on the amount of Manpower and type of target that can be attacked? Its similar to what we call an Expeditionary Force, limited objectives, limited forces and short of a full declaration of war.

Cor Blimey  this all public domain stuff and easily accessed and understood.

Contrary to what the Sun tells you and you clearly believe, Russia is not a Banana Republic where Putin can rule at a whim, but a very bureaucratic country that needs to have all the various organs on state on board. All the talk of an upgrade of the SMO to something more is a product of that system.
Its not me saying this, this is the Russian establishment speaking.

Anyway I can make all of this very very simple for all of you, especially those that believe that the entire Russian army has run away over the weekend

Kharkov is over
Now we look South
Ukraine is building up for a New Counter Offensive
The target appears to be Mariupol
It is expected to start very very soon.
If what you all believe is correct, it will repeat what happened at Kharkov
All the Russians will run away and the war will be over
If however my version is correct, it will repeat what is still finishing at Kherson
The Ukrainians will advance, they will go deep into Russian held territory
They will be herded into an kill zone
Surrounded
Cutoff
and annihilated.

This is exactly what happened at Kherson and the Ukrainians are still throwing units into the cauldron and taking massive casualties.
This would have happened to the residual Russian forces in Kharkov had they stayed and so knowing this, they left and live to fight another day.

You would think this is Fecking Rocket Science!

The sun has not,cannot and will never tell me anything because it's a rag.

Ive never underestimated the Russians but clearly there are those rattled by what's occurred and to deny that there's a problem  is a case of ostrich observation and a large dollop of sand.

I'll stick my neck out here and say Putin may be retiring soon from power or perhaps life altogether.

He may be even supplanted by someone even worse we shall have to see won't we?

[Sampanviking]

Probably not.

Sam is ok, but he has a weakness for eastern thugs such as Vlad Putin and Xi Jinping.

I have one for you too Borkie

[Sampanviking]

Do you honestly believe a word of that?

Yes
Why?
Which part don't you and why?

I suspect bad case of this

[Borchester]

Do you honestly believe a word of that?

Probably not.

Sam is ok, but he has a weakness for eastern thugs such as Vlad Putin and Xi Jinping.

[srb7677]

You do understand that the Special Military Operation is a legal construct in Russia that has limits on the amount of Manpower and type of target that can be attacked? Its similar to what we call an Expeditionary Force, limited objectives, limited forces and short of a full declaration of war.

Cor Blimey  this all public domain stuff and easily accessed and understood.

Contrary to what the Sun tells you and you clearly believe, Russia is not a Banana Republic where Putin can rule at a whim, but a very bureaucratic country that needs to have all the various organs on state on board. All the talk of an upgrade of the SMO to something more is a product of that system.
Its not me saying this, this is the Russian establishment speaking.

Anyway I can make all of this very very simple for all of you, especially those that believe that the entire Russian army has run away over the weekend

Kharkov is over
Now we look South
Ukraine is building up for a New Counter Offensive
The target appears to be Mariupol
It is expected to start very very soon.
If what you all believe is correct, it will repeat what happened at Kharkov
All the Russians will run away and the war will be over
If however my version is correct, it will repeat what is still finishing at Kherson
The Ukrainians will advance, they will go deep into Russian held territory
They will be herded into an kill zone
Surrounded
Cutoff
and annihilated.

This is exactly what happened at Kherson and the Ukrainians are still throwing units into the cauldron and taking massive casualties.
This would have happened to the residual Russian forces in Kharkov had they stayed and so knowing this, they left and live to fight another day.

You would think this is Fecking Rocket Science!

Do you honestly believe a word of that?

[Sampanviking]

Special military operation my backside,it's an invasion of another countries territory.

You do understand that the Special Military Operation is a legal construct in Russia that has limits on the amount of Manpower and type of target that can be attacked? Its similar to what we call an Expeditionary Force, limited objectives, limited forces and short of a full declaration of war.

FFS this all public domain stuff and easily accessed and understood.

Contrary to what the Sun tells you and you clearly believe, Russia is not a Banana Republic where Putin can rule at a whim, but a very bureaucratic country that needs to have all the various organs on state on board. All the talk of an upgrade of the SMO to something more is a product of that system.
Its not me saying this, this is the Russian establishment speaking.

Anyway I can make all of this very very simple for all of you, especially those that believe that the entire Russian army has run away over the weekend

Kharkov is over
Now we look South
Ukraine is building up for a New Counter Offensive
The target appears to be Mariupol
It is expected to start very very soon.
If what you all believe is correct, it will repeat what happened at Kharkov
All the Russians will run away and the war will be over
If however my version is correct, it will repeat what is still finishing at Kherson
The Ukrainians will advance, they will go deep into Russian held territory
They will be herded into an kill zone
Surrounded
Cutoff
and annihilated.

This is exactly what happened at Kherson and the Ukrainians are still throwing units into the cauldron and taking massive casualties.
This would have happened to the residual Russian forces in Kharkov had they stayed and so knowing this, they left and live to fight another day.

You would think this is Fecking Rocket Science!

[cromwell]

Open your Atlas John. Kharkov is on the border.
Yes there were some Russian forces along the border to the North of Kharkov and they were not under attack and they too were ordered to re-deploy. Obviously they went over the border to do so.
North of Kharkov up until the Ukrainian Russian border meets with Belarus, there are several hundred miles of border which Ukraine has control over and has since April.

Forces of the Special Military Operation close to the border would obviously just go over the border and then recross to redeploy.
The Russian side of the border is fully guarded by Russian Regulars and Border Forces that are not part of the Special Military Operation, so there is no need to have troops from the SMO guarding the border when they can be used elsewhere.

If the Ukrainian army was to follow across the border into Russia, that would be a declaration of war on the Russian Federation and the Russian response would no longer be a limited Special Military Operation.
Which is why since April no Ukrainian troop formations have crossed into Russia.

Special military operation my backside,it's an invasion of another countries territory.

[srb7677]

Open your Atlas John. Kharkov is on the border.
Yes there were some Russian forces along the border to the North of Kharkov and they were not under attack and they too were ordered to re-deploy. Obviously they went over the border to do so.
North of Kharkov up until the Ukrainian Russian border meets with Belarus, there are several hundred miles of border which Ukraine has control over and has since April.

Forces of the Special Military Operation close to the border would obviously just go over the border and then recross to redeploy.
The Russian side of the border is fully guarded by Russian Regulars and Border Forces that are not part of the Special Military Operation, so there is no need to have troops from the SMO guarding the border when they can be used elsewhere.

If the Ukrainian army was to follow across the border into Russia, that would be a declaration of war on the Russian Federation and the Russian response would no longer be a limited Special Military Operation.
Which is why since April no Ukrainian troop formations have crossed into Russia.

Comical Ali speaks. Always worth a read for its' comedy value. 

[Sampanviking]

I noted Reuters were briefing yesterday evening that the Ukrainian forces had driven the Russians over the border. Today I find a search for Ukraine latest give me a telegraph page NOT paywalled which contains links to several stories that are, but details for free reports on f Russians abandoning equipment and running away across the border leaving the Ukrainian forces to repossess the territory, and of units formerly considered the prestige units NATO would have had to take down with battlefield nukes fleeing in disarray.

of course it may all be bullshit, but I'm also hearing that story about the unthinkable and unspeakable being spoken in preparation for the Russian population being told their leaders will have to sue for peace

im sure the forums resident Russophile will be along in a minute to tell me there are no Ukrainians within fifty miles of the eastern border but if he does I'll be regarding him as I did comical ali

Open your Atlas John. Kharkov is on the border.
Yes there were some Russian forces along the border to the North of Kharkov and they were not under attack and they too were ordered to re-deploy. Obviously they went over the border to do so.
North of Kharkov up until the Ukrainian Russian border meets with Belarus, there are several hundred miles of border which Ukraine has control over and has since April.

Forces of the Special Military Operation close to the border would obviously just go over the border and then recross to redeploy.
The Russian side of the border is fully guarded by Russian Regulars and Border Forces that are not part of the Special Military Operation, so there is no need to have troops from the SMO guarding the border when they can be used elsewhere.

If the Ukrainian army was to follow across the border into Russia, that would be a declaration of war on the Russian Federation and the Russian response would no longer be a limited Special Military Operation.
Which is why since April no Ukrainian troop formations have crossed into Russia.

[Sampanviking]

I don't know about Ukrainian BS, I reckon this is SPV BS in bucketloads.
Why would an invader take territory, (said to be the size of Lancashire), hold it for a period with the intention of "calmly retreating" and giving it up again with the subsequent loss of equipment, men and injuries depleting the forces. It doesn't make much sense.

Meanwhile in the Telegraph today, I read a story which is paywalled so here it is on Yahoo News:
https://www.yahoo.com/news/incredible-moment-russian-politician-admits-impossible-to-defeat-ukraine-151646148.htmlSo, SPV, I'm sorry, but I don't believe your version.

Thats not what I said Barry.
I said the troops on the ground conducted a tactical retreat in good order, but I did not say it was part of any grand plan or strategy.
I said they carried out a Military maneuver in a professional way and it was not a Rout.
This is what all the serious analysts are saying.

A hollowed out force was indeed met by a Ukrainian strike force that outnumbered them 8:1 in that sector
The Ukrainian force was about 30,000 strong which means that the defending Russian force was little more than 3000 strong.
Yes it would be pointless for them to stay in their original positions and be cut and surrounded. They got out and got out fast.

Now they are on a new defensive line and being reinforced and that line is holding, which is why the news of new Ukrainian advances have stopped.
Why do you think the CNN crew had to get away from the newly recaptured territory fast because of incoming Russian artillery the very next day? A routed army would be incapable of doing that. Thats just common sense.

Let me quote you your article
!We have to understand it's absolutely impossible to beat Ukraine using those resources and colonial war methods with which Russia is trying to wage war," said Nadezhdin".

he is saying that the legal framework of the "Special Military Operation" is not enough to fight and win a proxy war with NATO in Ukraine and that the legal framework needs to be updated and the resources increased.
This is exactly what I saying in my previous posts, not because I am especially clever, but because all the pro Russian commentators and parliamentarians are screaming for it. If such channels were not banned in the West, you would have been able to see and hear them too.

He is not saying Russia cannot win the war and needs to give up. It means they have to up the anti and commit a hell of a lot more men that just two hundred thousand and be a hell of lot less prissy about what they target and blow up. In short send in a proper army and stop fighting with one hand tied behind their backs

On Sunday, for the first time in seven months, Russia targeted critical civilian infrastructure throughout Ukraine.
When we in the West have attacked other countries, these are things we have always done on DAY 1!
Russians are telling Putin this is a war and not a Police Action and they need to step it up fast.

Its not that difficult to understand surely?

[papasmurf]

im sure the forums resident Russophile will be along in a minute to tell me there are no Ukrainians within fifty miles of the eastern border but if he does I'll be regarding him as I did comical ali

Quite. Also after pondering why so many of Russia's (in theory,) most modern tanks have been blown to bits. It transpires they have a fatal flaw.  They only have a crew of three and a 29 round auto-loader. Also the reactive armour has been in many cases badly fitted.
The Ukrainians have been supplied with hand-held anti-tank missiles that have two charges, one blows the reactive armour, and one follows through into the tank.
There is a "sweet spot" to aim at which sets off all the 29 rounds in the auto-loader.

[johnofgwent]

I don't know about Ukrainian BS, I reckon this is SPV BS in bucketloads.
Why would an invader take territory, (said to be the size of Lancashire), hold it for a period with the intention of "calmly retreating" and giving it up again with the subsequent loss of equipment, men and injuries depleting the forces. It doesn't make much sense.

Meanwhile in the Telegraph today, I read a story which is paywalled so here it is on Yahoo News:
https://www.yahoo.com/news/incredible-moment-russian-politician-admits-impossible-to-defeat-ukraine-151646148.htmlSo, SPV, I'm sorry, but I don't believe your version.

I noted Reuters were briefing yesterday evening that the Ukrainian forces had driven the Russians over the border. Today I find a search for Ukraine latest give me a telegraph page NOT paywalled which contains links to several stories that are, but details for free reports on f Russians abandoning equipment and running away across the border leaving the Ukrainian forces to repossess the territory, and of units formerly considered the prestige units NATO would have had to take down with battlefield nukes fleeing in disarray.

of course it may all be bullshit, but I'm also hearing that story about the unthinkable and unspeakable being spoken in preparation for the Russian population being told their leaders will have to sue for peace 

im sure the forums resident Russophile will be along in a minute to tell me there are no Ukrainians within fifty miles of the eastern border but if he does I'll be regarding him as I did comical ali

[papasmurf]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/incredible-moment-russian-politician-admits-impossible-to-defeat-ukraine-151646148.htmlSo, SPV, I'm sorry, but I don't believe your version.

Quite, Putin is running out of materiel to fight a ground war with. How many tanks he has is not a lot on close analysis. When the damaged, destroyed, awaiting spares, and otherwise out of action are taken away from the theory there are not many left.

[Barry]

So where to start with today?

First off, lets dispel the BS about a rout in Kharkov. What we had was a tactical retreat from the whole of Kharkov by the Russians, even those that could easily have stayed in position along the Russian border. We know this as there were no big battles, the Russians retreated in good order (pictures and images of large amounts of abandoned Russian equipment are just Ukrainian BS of the sort they usually produce) The Russians have formed up on the East Bank of wide River near the Kharkov/Lughansk borders and that front is now stable. The Ukrainians have only taken territory that the Russians gave up meaning it has been merely occupied and not conquered.

I don't know about Ukrainian BS, I reckon this is SPV BS in bucketloads.
Why would an invader take territory, (said to be the size of Lancashire), hold it for a period with the intention of "calmly retreating" and giving it up again with the subsequent loss of equipment, men and injuries depleting the forces. It doesn't make much sense.

Meanwhile in the Telegraph today, I read a story which is paywalled so here it is on Yahoo News:
https://www.yahoo.com/news/incredible-moment-russian-politician-admits-impossible-to-defeat-ukraine-151646148.html

A Russian politician has claimed it is "absolutely impossible" for Russia to defeat Ukraine as Vladimir Putin's invasion approaches its seventh month.

Appearing on a TV politics programme on the state-owned NTV channel, former state Duma deputy Boris Nadezhdin said Russia's invasion of Ukraine was failing and suggested there should be "peace talks" .

His remarks came after major Russian losses which saw the Ukrainian army take back swathes of lost territory.

"We have to understand it's absolutely impossible to beat Ukraine using those resources and colonial war methods with which Russia is trying to wage war," said Nadezhdin.

So, SPV, I'm sorry, but I don't believe your version. 

[papasmurf]

Just for you Pappy as a welcome back -

One million strong armed forces plus two million reservists according to the ISS
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_number_of_military_and_paramilitary_personnel

Wiki is NOT a credible source.