What is really happening in the Ukraine Conflict?

[Sampanviking]

After Putin's dressing down by China and India, I think he's losing interest and I heard he wants out now, ASAP.
Withdrawal is one of the of dangerous moves for troops, I understand. Let's hope so.

What dressing down was this? Sounds more like some neocon wet dream fantasy to me.
The SCO has just had one of its most successful heads of state summits to date.
Loads of infrastructure and energy deals signed between the members
Iran starting its process of being a full member
Turkey making an application to become a member
Half of the Middle East signing up as dialogue partners.

China understands the problems caused by the US and its friends for Russia in the Ukraine all to clearly. Do you think they have forgotten the Pelosi provocation on Taiwan so soon or Brandons continued threats to violate the Chinese sovereignty over the Island?

Everything I have heard from the discussions between the parties is an understanding by them of Russia needing to increase the level of their Special Military Operation to a new and higher level.

[Barry]

After Putin's dressing down by China and India, I think he's losing interest and I heard he wants out now, ASAP.
Withdrawal is one of the most dangerous moves for troops, I understand. Let's hope so.

[Borchester]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-ukraine-war-live-putin-nuclear-power-plant-b2170867.html

Ukraine war – live: Russia loses full control of Luhansk as Kyiv recaptures village in Donbas

[Sheepy]

Just a quick update while I still have the links in my feed before they get buried and lost forever.
Its not my habit to post war porn, but these have illustrative purpose behind them.

The terrifying influence of drones in modern warfare
Drones now come in all shape and sixes, some are military grade aircraft, some are minor cruise missiles but many are commercially available and cost next to nothing.

These cheap ones can do a good recon mission and spotting enemy units to engage either or the ground or to then act as Artillery spotters. Quadcopter drones are even carrying hand grenades to drop into through the hatches of Armoured Vehicles or on top of troop concentrations in trenches.

The first video taken by a drone, shows a state of panic involving to Ukrainian BMP's in response I believe to seeing the drone and wanting to get as far away from they were, rightly worried that Russian artillery may already be incoming to that position.
https://twitter.com/narrative_hole/status/1570684383924998145

This is one in which the Ukrainian Tank Crew are lucky and see the Quadcopter and close their hatches in time. There are many other videos where the crews are not so lucky.
https://twitter.com/LogKa11/status/1570745151861194753

Finally with regards to the Graves found in Izzum. Even the BBC reported on the World Channel last night that these were individual graves with markers, even of only a number.
It seems most likely that these are the graves on Ukrainian soldiers that died last Spring when Izzum was captured.
This iwe are told, is the Graveyard.
https://twitter.com/Angelo4justice3/status/1570727940501172227

Ukraine marches farther into liberated lands, separatist calls for urgent referendum (msn.com)
Well, this is the outcome of making a success of democracy in Crimea Mr Chinese Viking, the other globalists are very miffed that they cannot control it.

[Sampanviking]

Just a quick update while I still have the links in my feed before they get buried and lost forever.
Its not my habit to post war porn, but these have illustrative purpose behind them.

The terrifying influence of drones in modern warfare
Drones now come in all shape and sixes, some are military grade aircraft, some are minor cruise missiles but many are commercially available and cost next to nothing.

These cheap ones can do a good recon mission and spotting enemy units to engage either or the ground or to then act as Artillery spotters. Quadcopter drones are even carrying hand grenades to drop into through the hatches of Armoured Vehicles or on top of troop concentrations in trenches.

The first video taken by a drone, shows a state of panic involving to Ukrainian BMP's in response I believe to seeing the drone and wanting to get as far away from they were, rightly worried that Russian artillery may already be incoming to that position.
https://twitter.com/narrative_hole/status/1570684383924998145

This is one in which the Ukrainian Tank Crew are lucky and see the Quadcopter and close their hatches in time. There are many other videos where the crews are not so lucky.
https://twitter.com/LogKa11/status/1570745151861194753

Finally with regards to the Graves found in Izzum. Even the BBC reported on the World Channel last night that these were individual graves with markers, even of only a number.
It seems most likely that these are the graves on Ukrainian soldiers that died last Spring when Izzum was captured.
This iwe are told, is the Graveyard.
https://twitter.com/Angelo4justice3/status/1570727940501172227

[Sampanviking]

The Russian attack on the Karachun Dam at Krivoy Rog has significantly raised the level of the Ingulets river and made it impassable in the area of the still ongoing first Ukrainian Counter Offensive. Pontoon Bridges have been swept away and fords flooded. Likewise lowland adjacent to the banks will also be flooded making the land soft and very muddy.

https://twitter.com/RWApodcast/status/1570130403205210119

https://twitter.com/AZmilitary1/status/1570092969512042498

https://twitter.com/AZmilitary1/status/1570094563225915393

https://twitter.com/DrazaM33/status/1570093170586783744

This means that for about the next week, Ukrainian forces on the Western Bank of the Ingulets will not be able to cross into the bridgehead and those already trapped in the kill zone of the East Bank Bridgeheads now have no chance of getting back to the West Bank.
This effectively kills or at least puts on hold the Kherson counter offensive and makes it difficult to start it back up, even after the water subsides, because of the softness of the land adjacent to the river.

This means that the Kherson Counter Offensive is no longer going to lock in place very large numbers of Russian forces and many of them will now be free to react to any new offensive on the Southern Front, East of the Dnieper.

I will also say this about Kharkov. The Ukrainians sent in over six brigades to advance into empty territory, but territory that was still under the coverage of Russian aviation and Artillery. No Russian army was fought and no Russian army was defeated. The thinned out Russian forces that had been there moved largely intact and were reinforced along their new defensive line. The Ukrainians still suffered heavy losses as they advanced, from Artillery and Arial attacks

The Ukrainians have now given themselves a problem. The East Kharkov region was empty of forces because ultimately most of it is an empty wilderness. The Ukrainians have made a big thing of reclaiming this large but empty territory. This however makes them hostage to fortune, because if they do like the Russians did and leave it with very little guarding it, the Russians can do the same thing back to them and inflict a massive propaganda defeat on the Ukrainians with massive loss of face.
To avoid this, they will need to leave a substantial garrison to guard it, locking in troops that really will be badly needed on more active parts of the front.
Quite a dilemma for Zelensky!

[johnofgwent]

Open your Atlas John. Kharkov is on the border.

Not QUITE

and I don't need to find an atlas, the various websites show a perfectly good map and lots of it shows Russian retreats.

I don't know how much is true and neither does anyone else.

I see the Germans are telling Putin For Fucks Sake give it up man you can't win. Well they know a thing or two about starting a war and then not coming out the other side smelling of roses.

I've no idea what the reality is. But maybe it would be useful if some of those across the border did decide to engage and got slaughtered. We're surely at the point now where Ukraine can't just allow things to go back to the borders they were in February.

[johnofgwent]

Quite. Also after pondering why so many of Russia's (in theory,) most modern tanks have been blown to bits. It transpires they have a fatal flaw.  They only have a crew of three and a 29 round auto-loader. Also the reactive armour has been in many cases badly fitted.
The Ukrainians have been supplied with hand-held anti-tank missiles that have two charges, one blows the reactive armour, and one follows through into the tank.
There is a "sweet spot" to aim at which sets off all the 29 rounds in the auto-loader.

I was pondering the same, after all, I spent a while about forty years ago preparing to make the streets of what is now the German capital run with liquid radioactive slag to stop the vehicles they had then, which I was told was the degree of force needed. 

I had seen the films and images of the pig carcasses inside some of the armoured vehicles filmed by the porton down boys back then so I was pretty well aware just how unpleasant a place to die some of these vehicles are but I was quite schooled at how readily they seemed to blow open. 

then DeppityDawg posted an eye opener on the ability of todays readily available munitions and I was quite startled. Truly a tank is not somewhere I would want to be anywhere near these days.

[Sampanviking]

I have spent far too much time on this today, but they are exciting times
I am going to finish by posting the link to todays round up by the Military Summary Channel
He has become my go too channel for the big picture as he is good and has now an excellent track record in predicting the turns, targets and hotspots.
Not always right with outcomes, but who is.

He has been particularly correct about spotting and predicting the previous Ukrainian Counter Offensives and today has talked at length about what he believes is an imminent new Counter Offensive in the South.
I suggest have a watch and make your own mind up in respect of what happens over the next few days

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p_W5N4-5G58

[cromwell]

Should've added feel free to continue posting your thoughts. 

[cromwell]

Come on Ollie I have made it clear that what happened was not good and that it should not have happened.
But that is a different matter

No the key assertion from the media that I am calling out is that the Russians were somehow taken by surprise
Its utter bollocks because news of the build up of Ukrainian forces around Kharkov had been in the public domain for at least a couple of weeks
If I knew about it, then sure to god that the Russian Government did.

The real question here is why did the Russian Government know about this and do nothing to prepare (where prepare means to get reinforcements in to hold the front)
Instead we know that forces that were recently at about the 15k level had been reduced to about 3k We also understand that civilians were being evacuated to Russia during this time.
I am not going to speculate as to why, but needless to say a lot of Russians are furious that Kharkov was apparently allowed to collapse and are demanding action.

Too early to write Putin off as the press over here loves to try and do and yes even if he went, it would be no Gorbachov or Yeltsin that would take over, so I say be careful what you wish for.
Russia has the men and the material to finish the job and its only self imposed constraints that seem to be preventing them from being deployed and used.
It does look as these restraints are now going to be removed and a new legal status; higher than Special Military Operation but less than a formal declaration of War, will be put in place.

As I've said before Sampan you post some good stuff at times never a problem as a poster and you've never hidden your view been consistent for a long time but on this you are in a minority but in any event we'll see what happens.

Its not important who turns out right or wrong but that in the end as few die as possible and peace returns.

[Barry]

It does look as these restraints are now going to be removed and a [highlight]new legal status[/highlight]; higher than Special Military Operation but less than a formal declaration of War, will be put in place.

This new legal status will probably be considered legal in Russia, Iran, China and India.
The rest of the world reckons the Russian invasion was an unprovoked, unjustifiable attack on a sovereign country.

We know you think differently and are cheering on the enemy to make it a proper war. B0ycey seems to be standing behind you, but I can't see anyone else taking your position.

[papasmurf]

Russia has the men and the material to finish the job 

Expert analysis seems to disagree with that. (That included satellite image analysis of site where tanks and other vehicles are stored. (Most of which are non-operational.)

[Borchester]

I have one for you too Borkie

It is different when I do it.

After all, God is an Englishman

[Sampanviking]

The sun has not,cannot and will never tell me anything because it's a rag.

Ive never underestimated the Russians but clearly there are those rattled by what's occurred and to deny that there's a problem  is a case of ostrich observation and a large dollop of sand.

I'll stick my neck out here and say Putin may be retiring soon from power or perhaps life altogether.

He may be even supplanted by someone even worse we shall have to see won't we?

Come on Ollie I have made it clear that what happened was not good and that it should not have happened.
But that is a different matter

No the key assertion from the media that I am calling out is that the Russians were somehow taken by surprise
Its utter bollocks because news of the build up of Ukrainian forces around Kharkov had been in the public domain for at least a couple of weeks
If I knew about it, then sure to god that the Russian Government did.

The real question here is why did the Russian Government know about this and do nothing to prepare (where prepare means to get reinforcements in to hold the front)
Instead we know that forces that were recently at about the 15k level had been reduced to about 3k We also understand that civilians were being evacuated to Russia during this time.
I am not going to speculate as to why, but needless to say a lot of Russians are furious that Kharkov was apparently allowed to collapse and are demanding action.

Too early to write Putin off as the press over here loves to try and do and yes even if he went, it would be no Gorbachov or Yeltsin that would take over, so I say be careful what you wish for.
Russia has the men and the material to finish the job and its only self imposed constraints that seem to be preventing them from being deployed and used.
It does look as these restraints are now going to be removed and a new legal status; higher than Special Military Operation but less than a formal declaration of War, will be put in place.