What is really happening in the Ukraine Conflict?

[Nick]

Is there any tabloid rubbish that you clowns wont believe?
This would be hilarious if it was not all so tragic
The three hundred thousand being mobilised are reservists, trained former contract soldiers, most of which have specialist skills to help expand the scale of the military operation.
Had any of you actually bothered to find and listen to the speeches by Putin and Shogu, rather than just the versions reported in the media, you would know this.

Clearly rationale common sense left the building ages ago.

The biggest joke of all, is that the Ukraine is the very nasty police state that everybody tries to paint Russia as.
Opposition parties ... banned
Opposition media ..... banned
Opposition leaders - including the leader of the official opposition - jailed
Legislation against the Russian language - enforced
Indiscriminate shelling of civilian areas in rebel areas - daily occurance
Oh and young men literally picked up from the streets by press gangs for military conscription

But you don't read it in the Sun so you don't believe it happening
What a sad end for the west to become such an inglorious joke.

Anyway it will be all immaterial. In a matter of days all the four southern Oblasts will become part of the Russian Federation in line with the wishes of the local populace

As for the Ukrainians well they keep throwing men and machines against the Russian front lines with the same sad results
Rather like this one today in Kherson.
https://twitter.com/LogKa11/status/1572636388012720128

You'd fall for the 3 card trick.

Some burnt out tanks in a field videoed from a drone before they zoom in on a tank, that's up to its gunnels in mud and bombed out... But with a pristine white Ukrainian emblem on it that hasn't got a single speck of mud on it. 😂 😂 😂
They've even left the masking tape on the tank that's held the pattern 😂, and you say we believe any old crap.



I've just looked at 20 pictures of Ukrainian tanks and not one had that symbol, they all had the Ukrainian flag 🇺🇦. 

[Barry]

Yep, Russia has never seen so many one way flights booked in its history.

Cyprus will be crowded!

[papasmurf]

Is there any tabloid rubbish that you clowns wont believe?

I don't read tabloids.

[cromwell]

I stuck my neck out Sampan,will do again I reckon Vlad is past his sell by date and will soon be in the skip.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/9/21/russians-react-to-putins-partial-mobilisation-plan

[Sampanviking]

Is there any tabloid rubbish that you clowns wont believe?
This would be hilarious if it was not all so tragic
The three hundred thousand being mobilised are reservists, trained former contract soldiers, most of which have specialist skills to help expand the scale of the military operation.
Had any of you actually bothered to find and listen to the speeches by Putin and Shogu, rather than just the versions reported in the media, you would know this.

Clearly rationale common sense left the building ages ago.

The biggest joke of all, is that the Ukraine is the very nasty police state that everybody tries to paint Russia as.
Opposition parties ... banned
Opposition media ..... banned
Opposition leaders - including the leader of the official opposition - jailed
Legislation against the Russian language - enforced
Indiscriminate shelling of civilian areas in rebel areas - daily occurance
Oh and young men literally picked up from the streets by press gangs for military conscription

But you don't read it in the Sun so you don't believe it happening
What a sad end for the west to become such an inglorious joke.

Anyway it will be all immaterial. In a matter of days all the four southern Oblasts will become part of the Russian Federation in line with the wishes of the local populace

As for the Ukrainians well they keep throwing men and machines against the Russian front lines with the same sad results
Rather like this one today in Kherson.
https://twitter.com/LogKa11/status/1572636388012720128

[papasmurf]

Yep, Russia has never seen so many one way flights booked in its history.

Also, it is now apparently thousands of arrests of protesters. (I wonder how many Russians will seek asylum in Britain.)

[Nick]

Apparently, all the flights out of Russia are fully booked and there have been hundreds of arrests at street protests about the callups.

Yep, Russia has never seen so many one way flights booked in its history. 

[papasmurf]

Russia is cobbling together 300K conscripts that have no training and don't want to fight, 

Apparently, all the flights out of Russia are fully booked and there have been hundreds of arrests at street protests about the callups.

[Nick]

The only difference Western weapons have made is to prolong a conflict way beyond the Ukraine's ability to do so based on its own resources.

When Russia and Ukraine met for in Turkey for negotiations back in the spring, they actually agreed terms. But as per usual, just as they did with the Minsk agreement, NATO in the shape of our very own Boris, went as messenger boy for Brandon and scuppered the whole thing.
The US has no interest in peace, they started this whole sorry story back in 2014 with there coup installed regime and their only interest is to pursue their own geopolitical agenda, geared to try and ensure the survival of position as global hegemon.

The US clearly has no intention of peacefully making room for the rising powers that are going to eclipse it and so we now play out the first part of the seemingly inevitable Thucydides Trap that has to follow.

The rest of your post is just a regurgitation of the tabloid nonsense that get fed as news over here. Sadly it seems that that the gap now between Western propaganda and reality is so distant and the worlds so different, that bridging the gap is now all but impossible.

Danger of escalating to a full scale conflict? Only if the West makes a conscious decision to make it worse by intervening directly. Ukraine is not NATO and it has no need or obligation to do so. The West made a play, Putin called their bluff and its over and the west just needs to accept it. It has no real other choice unless the policy really is to start WW3.

Some of you though, may start to wonder to yourselves, just how strange it is that all those countries that are powerful enough to defy and even challenge the power of the US are all somehow evil incarnate, What are the chances of that?
Just feel relieved that you live in the workers unparalleled paradise and take some cold comfort this winter, that no matter how bad things may seem, they must obviously be much worse in the rest of the world

Russia is cobbling together 300K conscripts that have no training and don't want to fight, Ukraine has 10 million men at prime fighting age that are fighting for the land. Russia is getting its arse kicked atm, and your communist leaning posts won't change that. 

[patman post]

The only difference Western weapons have made is to prolong a conflict way beyond the Ukraine's ability to do so based on its own resources.

Really?

You don't say?

I can't say that I can see any other reason for supplying arms to Ukraine to defend itself against the Russian invasion...

PS — isn't this day 210 of Putin's three-day war...?

[Sampanviking]

He is in danger of escalating to a full scale conflict. At least you know he is headed for a very different type of war. If that's what he actually wants. As things stand the best he can hope for is to rent a part of Ukraine paying the rent over and over in blood.
So up to now according to your previous posts NATO help has been the difference, yet if that help was to be full scale it wouldn't be. Very typical response. We do know with multiple examples how poor his armour has performed. As it's not the aim of the Ukraine, or NATO to invade Russia , merely to regain Ukrainian territory they will not need to rely on heavy armour in the way the Russians have done to attain very little considering the amount of it they have wasted , that wastage would only increase if he escalates. And as western weapons have made the difference up to now there is no reason to suppose they will not do so in future.
Look Putins invasion has led to the deaths of thousands of innocent civilian Ukrainians , and all he considerers is how to nuk the rest of us, and the mobilising of another 300,000 instruments to continue the terror campaign he conducts in that country. He will be opposed because if that's all he offers the world,  why wouldn't he be?

The only difference Western weapons have made is to prolong a conflict way beyond the Ukraine's ability to do so based on its own resources.

When Russia and Ukraine met for in Turkey for negotiations back in the spring, they actually agreed terms. But as per usual, just as they did with the Minsk agreement, NATO in the shape of our very own Boris, went as messenger boy for Brandon and scuppered the whole thing.
The US has no interest in peace, they started this whole sorry story back in 2014 with there coup installed regime and their only interest is to pursue their own geopolitical agenda, geared to try and ensure the survival of position as global hegemon.

The US clearly has no intention of peacefully making room for the rising powers that are going to eclipse it and so we now play out the first part of the seemingly inevitable Thucydides Trap that has to follow.

The rest of your post is just a regurgitation of the tabloid nonsense that get fed as news over here. Sadly it seems that that the gap now between Western propaganda and reality is so distant and the worlds so different, that bridging the gap is now all but impossible.

Danger of escalating to a full scale conflict? Only if the West makes a conscious decision to make it worse by intervening directly. Ukraine is not NATO and it has no need or obligation to do so. The West made a play, Putin called their bluff and its over and the west just needs to accept it. It has no real other choice unless the policy really is to start WW3.

Some of you though, may start to wonder to yourselves, just how strange it is that all those countries that are powerful enough to defy and even challenge the power of the US are all somehow evil incarnate, What are the chances of that?
Just feel relieved that you live in the workers unparalleled paradise and take some cold comfort this winter, that no matter how bad things may seem, they must obviously be much worse in the rest of the world

[Good old]

Really? - I doubt it very much
The West is already at the top of the escalator and has few other options except actual direct participation in the conflict and then you would have a very different type of war.
Do you think the West will get directly involved?
Ready to volunteer yourself?

Yes I know that there are voices talking about sending actual Western Tanks and Planes, but there is a lot of resistance. Switching from Russian Kit to Western Kit is not something you do in five minutes and it would take months before forces became combat ready. Probably much longer for Military Pilots. Then of course there would those less than welcome images which would show that despite the hype, that Western Tanks and Planes are not significantly more survivable in modern combat than the cheaper old Russian ones and that would be very bad for business.

Everybody said from the start that the Russian Task Force for this SMO was far too small to be properly effective. Seems that finally this issue is being rectified.

Plus of course  winter is just around the corner.....

He is in danger of escalating to a full scale conflict. At least you know he is headed for a very different type of war. If that's what he actually wants. As things stand the best he can hope for is to rent a part of Ukraine paying the rent over and over in blood.
So up to now according to your previous posts NATO help has been the difference, yet if that help was to be full scale it wouldn't be. Very typical response. We do know with multiple examples how poor his armour has performed. As it's not the aim of the Ukraine, or NATO to invade Russia , merely to regain Ukrainian territory they will not need to rely on heavy armour in the way the Russians have done to attain very little considering the amount of it they have wasted , that wastage would only increase if he escalates. And as western weapons have made the difference up to now there is no reason to suppose they will not do so in future.
Look Putins invasion has led to the deaths of thousands of innocent civilian Ukrainians , and all he considerers is how to nuk the rest of us, and the mobilising of another 300,000 instruments to continue the terror campaign he conducts in that country. He will be opposed because if that's all he offers the world,  why wouldn't he be?

[Sampanviking]

Outside of the fact that the man might just be unhinged, all you describe is a recipe for a far bigger broader conflict than he Putin, or indeed Russia, are  likely to win.
You seem to think Ukraine, has backing, then believe it because if Putin escalates the west will escalate , if Putin makes the conflict bigger so will the west respond.
If he enlarges his idea as to what is Russia,and  uses nuks, when that ground is attacked by Ukrainian forces then he will fry as will most of us. If he wants to hold that ground with conventional means then he will sacrifice thousands of Russian military life's and its gear for next to nothing because that ground is  not his and the Ukrainians are entitled to want it back, and continuing to mobilise will only take him and everyone else closer to outright full scale conflict because it will naturally lead to him broadening the whole, to trying to take Ukraine. And then western input will be emmense.
He has always thought the Ukrainians, and the west would cave in to his bullying, he was wrong , he is wrong to keep thinking otherwise. Yet he blunders on. History has taught him little it seems.

Really? - I doubt it very much
The West is already at the top of the escalator and has few other options except actual direct participation in the conflict and then you would have a very different type of war.
Do you think the West will get directly involved?
Ready to volunteer yourself?

Yes I know that there are voices talking about sending actual Western Tanks and Planes, but there is a lot of resistance. Switching from Russian Kit to Western Kit is not something you do in five minutes and it would take months before forces became combat ready. Probably much longer for Military Pilots. Then of course there would those less than welcome images which would show that despite the hype, that Western Tanks and Planes are not significantly more survivable in modern combat than the cheaper old Russian ones and that would be very bad for business.

Everybody said from the start that the Russian Task Force for this SMO was far too small to be properly effective. Seems that finally this issue is being rectified.

Plus of course  winter is just around the corner.....

[patman post]

Russia has been going through the dregs of prisons with a promise of fight and you'll be freed.

Probably regarded as expendable canon fodder. But with mobilising reservists, it does look like he's running out of options. 

Battlefield chemical weapons could be next. And tactical nuclear weapons might be threatened — though they're just plain nuclear with all the ramifications they bring!!!

It looks like, ultimately, a long drawn out defeat for Putin — though it's hardly going to be a victory for Ukraine with all that country's lives lost and ruined. 

And the same for the Russians — though I'm finding it hard to find a lot of sympathy for them...

[Good old]

Well the Ukraine is now on what? its forth or fifth mobilisation now?
They have an army of about 600 000 - 700 000 under arms which a good proportion in the field
The Ukrainian state is receiving billions of dollars in financial assistance to keep the state afloat
The Ukrainian state is receiving billions of dollars worth of military hardware to equip its troops
It has NATO officers leading planning and logistic for Ukraine both in Ukraine and outside of its borders
NATO armies are training 10.000 of Ukrainian troops in NATO countries
NATO Recon and Intelligence are providing detailed, live intelligence to the Ukraine
Considerable numbers of NATO military personnel are fighting as "Volunteers" with the Ukrainian army

This combined NATO Ukrainian force has barely been sufficient to restrict and contain a Russian and allied force of about 250,000
Russia has now announced a partial mobilisation of 300,000 reservists - probably specialists to give full fire support to the separate new volunteers and Wagner recruits.
I think even the further addition of another 100,000 Russian army will tip the balance back.
I suspect Kharkov will be the first target in this to string the Ukrainians out and because the Russians will want those supply roads re-opened again.

Maybe other groups will also move to the northern end of the Russo-Ukrainian border to further stretch Kiev's forces.

To those currently hiding under their beds in fear of imminent nuclear attack, you can come out

Numerous talking heads over the last few weeks have been suggesting that Russia might use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine itself.
This was I believe, Putin's rebuff to them by saying, no Russia would not use tactical nukes in its own back yard against people it regards as its own, but would use longer ones against its real enemies abroad. Maybe some on the total nutters in Washington and London may have been dreaming of a radiological false flag in the Ukraine somewhere and this was his warning back?

Outside of the fact that the man might just be unhinged, all you describe is a recipe for a far bigger broader conflict than he Putin, or indeed Russia, are  likely to win.
You seem to think Ukraine, has backing, then believe it because if Putin escalates the west will escalate , if Putin makes the conflict bigger so will the west respond.
If he enlarges his idea as to what is Russia,and  uses nuks, when that ground is attacked by Ukrainian forces then he will fry as will most of us. If he wants to hold that ground with conventional means then he will sacrifice thousands of Russian military life's and its gear for next to nothing because that ground is  not his and the Ukrainians are entitled to want it back, and continuing to mobilise will only take him and everyone else closer to outright full scale conflict because it will naturally lead to him broadening the whole, to trying to take Ukraine. And then western input will be emmense.
He has always thought the Ukrainians, and the west would cave in to his bullying, he was wrong , he is wrong to keep thinking otherwise. Yet he blunders on. History has taught him little it seems.