What is really happening in the Ukraine Conflict?

[papasmurf]

So sorry, at the end of the day the missile or Torpedo options just don't really stack up.

Neither does a truck bomb. (There also appears to be no defensive systems against attack on the bridge.)
I can think of several ways to attack the bridge from the air or sea, but I am not going to comment on an internet forum.

[Sampanviking]

Given the video of the explosion, (which is very obviously under the bridge,) and the damage done with no damage to the surface of the carriage way, it was a missile of some kind.) I find it strange that Russian divers are inspecting the base of the piers. Unless they think it was a torpedo. Which would be even stranger. What it was NOT was a truck bomb or a few backpacks of explosives attached under the bridge.

The Ukrainians have the Neptune AshM, It has a range of about 300km and payload of 150kg. It is not afik a Sea Skimmer, nor is it Supersonic but a fairly slow Subsonic missile.

Firing from land would be beyond maximum range of Ukrainian controlled territory. What little is left of the Ukrainian navy is locked in port along their remaining coast line.
Even if they could get the missile in range, this slow high missile is flying through heavily defended air space with land and ship based Air defences including the multiple S 400 systems, S 300, Buk and Pantsir. For a single subsonic missile to get through is extremely unlikely.

The Neptune itself is designed to penetrate hulls and not decks, the fairly small war head then explodes in an enclosed space to cause the damage.
So what would this missile have hit?
There is no substantial damage to any of the Causeway supports, only the Causeway itself was damaged. Not that 150kg would have done major damage to support, but hitting one of those would have been a hell of a lot easier than a level hit on the edge of the Causeway. I would say almost impossible.

That still leaves the fact that you think a 150kg missile warhead hitting edge on can somehow do more damage than a 44 ton Artic sitting square on the carriageway.

Torpedo - Well problem no:1 what would this be fired from? The Ukraine had only one sub and this was captured by the Russians when they took over the Crimea.
A Standard Heavy Torpedo might be able to bring down a support, but no supports were damaged.
A Torpedo just exploding in the water under the Causeway would do little more than give it a bath. Not enough force would transmit upwards to do the damage we have seen.

So sorry, at the end of the day the missile or Torpedo options just don't really stack up.

[papasmurf]

So your saying a Cruise Missile right?

Given the video of the explosion, (which is very obviously under the bridge,) and the damage done with no damage to the surface of the carriage way, it was a missile of some kind.) I find it strange that Russian divers are inspecting the base of the piers. Unless they think it was a torpedo. Which would be even stranger. What it was NOT was a truck bomb or a few backpacks of explosives attached under the bridge.

[Sampanviking]

Ukraine has been supplied with various missiles that could do the job that also have some of their own capable of doing that damage to a bridge.  It is you who keep posting nonsense. They have an anti-ship missile that would easily do that much damage to a bridge.

So your saying a Cruise Missile right?

[Nick]

Which missile do you think it was then? - straight question for a straight answer. If you can't answer stop posting pointless balwarks.

He won't be able to tell you due to his security clearance. Ever tried juggling eels? 

[papasmurf]

Which missile do you think it was then? - straight question for a straight answer. If you can't answer stop posting pointless balwarks.

Ukraine has been supplied with various missiles that could do the job that also have some of their own capable of doing that damage to a bridge.  It is you who keep posting nonsense. They have an anti-ship missile that would easily do that much damage to a bridge.

[Good old]

I get bored of repeating the same damn lines to you Good Old. But just to repeat it again on the hope it sinks in... Ukraine could agree to actually follow up on something they signed up to which was autonomy in the Donbass. Or they could agree to a UN referendum if they are sure they would win given it is a UN right for people to have the right to self determination. Either way, in principle they could end the war without capitulation if the terms are a Russian withdrawal given an autonomous region would have to be a neutral state or under referendum a withdrawal is requires if Russia lose given the region remains Ukraine.

I guess what I am saying is that under negotiations the terms afor what is acceptable for both parties will be discussed and given at this moment in time both parties are claiming to be the liberators a referendum would make sense if they are so sure wouldn't you say?

Well I get a bit pissed off with your supercilious approach to your reply's . But the fact that you are so often wrong is sufficient reason to ignore the contempt and reply to you.
Putin has made that part of Ukraine Russian. What is he going to do suddenly ? Say ,I made a dreadful mistake, let's be really fair about this and let the UN have complete control over whether I can have It.?
The only thing you are right about is Putin needs to pull out. As sheep said in the wilderness, he won't. Why because it wasn't a manoeuvre to call a part of Ukraine Russia, it was the aim all along, for the time being anyway, as now no one can say he won't want more. This is not now about Donbas independence. It's Russian according to him. Just an aside. It would be interesting to see what would actually happen to Russia, if the right to self determination was ever fully and fairly applied to its own land mass. Of course he would never find self determination appealing then would he.

[Sampanviking]

There is no way it was a truck bomb. There is NO damage to the surface of the carriageway. (Are you Putin posting under a pseudonym?)

Which missile do you think it was then? - straight question for a straight answer. If you can't answer stop posting pointless balwarks.

[papasmurf]

The lorry on the video looked like a 44ton Arctic, if you know of a Ukrainian Missile that has a bigger payload than that, feel free to share the name with me.....

There is no way it was a truck bomb. There is NO damage to the surface of the carriageway. (Are you Putin posting under a pseudonym?)

[B0ycey]

All pie in the sky. Everyone can agree peace in Ukraine would be a blessing on all involved.
Nothing of what you suggest can happen without complete capitulation on the Ukrainian side.
Why? Because Putin has already made even ground he doesn't dominate, Russian. It's what he was always there for  and  no amount of talking will alter that for him. The area is no longer in civil war as far as he is concerned, how can it be if in his mind the area concerned is not Ukrainian..?
The only thing the Ukrainians have  to talk about is if we roll over on what's happened so far , will you leave the rest of our country alone.

I get bored of repeating the same damn lines to you Good Old. But just to repeat it again on the hope it sinks in... Ukraine could agree to actually follow up on something they signed up to which was autonomy in the Donbass. Or they could agree to a UN referendum if they are sure they would win given it is a UN right for people to have the right to self determination. Either way, in principle they could end the war without capitulation if the terms are a Russian withdrawal given an autonomous region would have to be a neutral state or under referendum a withdrawal is requires if Russia lose given the region remains Ukraine.

I guess what I am saying is that under negotiations the terms afor what is acceptable for both parties will be discussed and given at this moment in time both parties are claiming to be the liberators a referendum would make sense if they are so sure wouldn't you say?

[Sampanviking]

There is no sign whatsoever of surface damage to the carriageway. If you study the video of the blast it is NOT on the carriageway but underneath it and to the right. There no way a truck could carry sufficient explosive to do that amount of damage.

The lorry on the video looked like a 44ton Arctic, if you know of a Ukrainian Missile that has a bigger payload than that, feel free to share the name with me.....

[Good old]

What do you mean, 'What do they have to speak to Russia about?' How about if they are so sure they are the Liberators of the Donbass region, a UN led referendum and the people who live their decide their own fate with Russia retreating depending on the result? The answer is simple why they don't want to do that given the area has been in civil war for 8 years. And then there is the implementation of the Minsk agreement if they don't want that. The fact Russia has only attacked Kiev today when for months they have not means if it isn't obvious to you by now they are only interested in the Donbass, then you have been taken in by Western media.

All pie in the sky. Everyone can agree peace in Ukraine would be a blessing on all involved.
Nothing of what you suggest can happen without complete capitulation on the Ukrainian side.
Why? Because Putin has already made even ground he doesn't dominate, Russian. It's what he was always there for  and  no amount of talking will alter that for him. The area is no longer in civil war as far as he is concerned, how can it be if in his mind the area concerned is not Ukrainian..?
The only thing the Ukrainians have  to talk about is if we roll over on what's happened so far , will you leave the rest of our country alone.

[papasmurf]

 Truck we saw in the video was the bomb.

There is no sign whatsoever of surface damage to the carriageway. If you study the video of the blast it is NOT on the carriageway but underneath it and to the right. There no way a truck could carry sufficient explosive to do that amount of damage.

[Sampanviking]

This is a photo from yesterday from under the damaged section of the bridge. No scorch marks and no obvious blast damage to the structure and walkways etc, which you would expect if the blast was direct on this face of the causeway trestle from the sea. I still think the Truck we saw in the video was the bomb.

In relation to the missile strikes still going on against Ukrainian Power System, Logistics and Command and Control Centers, I suspect this is rather more than just payback for the bridge attack but a proper prelude for the new Russian Army Groups to enter the conflict in a new offensive.

Guess we shall see...

[Sheepy]

What do you mean, 'What do they have to speak to Russia about?' How about if they are so sure they are the Liberators of the Donbass region, a UN led referendum and the people who live their decide their own fate with Russia retreating depending on the result? The answer is simple why they don't want to do that given the area has been in civil war for 8 years. And then there is the implementation of the Minsk agreement if they don't want that. The fact Russia has only attacked Kiev today when for months they have not means if it isn't obvious to you by now they are only interested in the Donbass, then you have been taken in by Western media.

Anyway, as I said the Biden regime is particularly stupid.