What is really happening in the Ukraine Conflict?

[Nick]

Laughable yourself.
So somehow in your deluded little mind, you have convinced yourself that the partial call up of reservists is somehow a general draft.
This is more than laughable, this is barking mad.

You do know that the UK and other NATO countries have been calling up reservists on a regular basis since 2003 to fill the ever increasing gaps in the Professional Army's ranks?
Would you call the partial call ups we have had over the last twenty years the draft?

What I do know is that every country has operated a monitor list to all hotels and such places looking for those wanted by the Police of Courts. Nowadays there is no need for a list as such as on-line monitoring will automatically flag up any details for a fugitive, to the authorities.
This would include any called up reservist, who failed to present when ordered to do, and how would be listed as AWOL.

You appear to be insinuating that anyone of military age in Russia can simply be dragged off the street and sent to the front line. Very clearly, this is not happening and the three hundred thousand Reservists that have been called up are only a small part of the potential 2 million reservists that Russia can call upon before having to look at the wider population beyond volunteers.
Its not even likely that these reservists will be sent on front line duty, but mostly taking the place of other contract soldiers deployed on other borders, to release them for the Ukraine war.
In fact most of the measures taken by the Russian government over the last month are to do with allowing none front line troops to release proper combat forces from the rear echelons, where many had needed to be until now.

Ironically of course, the one country in this conflict which does have full conscription and where young men can be literally dragged off the streets and thrown into the meat grinder within weeks, is the Ukraine and has been for many months.

Lots of unconfirmed reports of movements along the various fronts today. Waiting to see if these are just rumours and speculations or if anything major is starting.
There does seem to be a small Russian offensive taking place in the North Kharkov region as they seem to be reclaiming a number of towns that they previously pulled out of. There are claims that they have today cut a major railway line connecting the Lyman bridgehead with the Kharkov city itself. Unconfirmed by very interesting if true.

I haven't insinuated anything and I haven't convinced myself of anything. I've reported what I was told yesterday, but clearly you you know better than someone living in Russia. 

[Sampanviking]

a list designed to find fighting age Russian men?

Laughable yourself.
So somehow in your deluded little mind, you have convinced yourself that the partial call up of reservists is somehow a general draft.
This is more than laughable, this is barking mad.

You do know that the UK and other NATO countries have been calling up reservists on a regular basis since 2003 to fill the ever increasing gaps in the Professional Army's ranks?
Would you call the partial call ups we have had over the last twenty years the draft?

What I do know is that every country has operated a monitor list to all hotels and such places looking for those wanted by the Police of Courts. Nowadays there is no need for a list as such as on-line monitoring will automatically flag up any details for a fugitive, to the authorities.
This would include any called up reservist, who failed to present when ordered to do, and how would be listed as AWOL.

You appear to be insinuating that anyone of military age in Russia can simply be dragged off the street and sent to the front line. Very clearly, this is not happening and the three hundred thousand Reservists that have been called up are only a small part of the potential 2 million reservists that Russia can call upon before having to look at the wider population beyond volunteers.
Its not even likely that these reservists will be sent on front line duty, but mostly taking the place of other contract soldiers deployed on other borders, to release them for the Ukraine war.
In fact most of the measures taken by the Russian government over the last month are to do with allowing none front line troops to release proper combat forces from the rear echelons, where many had needed to be until now.

Ironically of course, the one country in this conflict which does have full conscription and where young men can be literally dragged off the streets and thrown into the meat grinder within weeks, is the Ukraine and has been for many months.

Lots of unconfirmed reports of movements along the various fronts today. Waiting to see if these are just rumours and speculations or if anything major is starting.
There does seem to be a small Russian offensive taking place in the North Kharkov region as they seem to be reclaiming a number of towns that they previously pulled out of. There are claims that they have today cut a major railway line connecting the Lyman bridgehead with the Kharkov city itself. Unconfirmed by very interesting if true.

[Nick]

Other than proving you can use a colouring book that means nothing.
Given the amount of holes in your accounts of visits to places that I know, I can only assume that the same level of inconsistency applies to those that I do not.
I am glad you don't care I don't believe you, just as I am sure that you wont care that I suspect you to little more than a sad fantasist using fictitious travel experience to dress up your rabid Daily Mail level prejudices, as somehow representing fact.

It is you that introduced this supposed list from your supposed conversation with a supposed friend in St Petersberg.
Were I to have had such a conversation, I think I would have been moved to ask more about the nature of this list and what criteria leas people to be on it.
Are you saying you did not?

The only place we ever discussed we had both been was China and the fact that you hadn't even been to places like Shanghai and Beijing suggests our views would be different. 

Why would I discuss the criteria for a list designed to find fighting age Russian men? My question was which hotel he was staying in and I already explained the answer I got. 

As for the rest, it's just laughable. 

[Sampanviking]

Other than proving you can use a colouring book that means nothing.
Given the amount of holes in your accounts of visits to places that I know, I can only assume that the same level of inconsistency applies to those that I do not.
I am glad you don't care I don't believe you, just as I am sure that you wont care that I suspect you to little more than being a sad fantasist, using fictitious travel experience to dress up your rabid Daily Mail level prejudices, as somehow representing fact.

It is you that introduced this supposed list from your supposed conversation with a supposed friend in St Petersberg.
Were I to have had such a conversation, I think I would have been moved to ask more about the nature of this list and what criteria leads people to be on it.
Are you saying you did not?

[Nick]

This one

You know Nick, for someone who claims he travels so extensively, its amazing how you sound just like a mix of Wiki and UK Tabloids 

Firstly, why would I have a list of Russian men eligible to be enlisted, even asking for it shows you didn't understand what I put.

As for my travel, what you believe or don't believe I couldn't care less. The fact is, someone comes up with information that you can't throw some conspiracy at and you turn to schoolboy tactics.

Here's a view of all the imaginary places I haven't been to. 

[Sampanviking]

Anyone who presents a passport is checked against a list and detained and sent to the Ukraine if they are on it.

This one

You know Nick, for someone who claims he travels so extensively, its amazing how you sound just like a mix of Wiki and UK Tabloids  

[Nick]

Do you really Nick
And how exactly are you traveling to Russia?
Do tell me more about this fascinating list?

Dead easy, I fly to the UAE and then to St Petersburg on Emirate's. I have a business visa because I can get a LOI from my customer.

What list?

[Sampanviking]

If you like. Just cause some actual reality doesn't fit your deluded outlook on things you call BS. That speaks volumes about what you want to believe, you can Google as much as you like from your armchair, some of us do actually travel the world and have real experiences, you just call it BS because you can't find any propaganda to disprove it.

Do you really Nick
And how exactly are you traveling to Russia?
Do tell me more about this fascinating list?

[Nick]

BS

If you like. Just cause some actual reality doesn't fit your deluded outlook on things you call BS. That speaks volumes about what you want to believe, you can Google as much as you like from your armchair, some of us do actually travel the world and have real experiences, you just call it BS because you can't find any propaganda to disprove it. 

[Sampanviking]

I can now give a real perspective on what is happening in Russia as I spoke with a colleague of mine that lives in St Petersburg. I am due to travel to Russia next week and was enquiring which hotel he was staying at so I could organise the same one. He is not staying in a hotel so has rented an apartment as new rules require Russians to show their passport when they check into a hotel. Anyone who presents a passport is checked against a list and detained and sent to the Ukraine if they are on it. This is desperation by Putin at its worst.

BS

[Nick]

I can now give a real perspective on what is happening in Russia as I spoke with a colleague of mine that lives in St Petersburg. I am due to travel to Russia next week and was enquiring which hotel he was staying at so I could organise the same one. He is not staying in a hotel so has rented an apartment as new rules require Russians to show their passport when they check into a hotel. Anyone who presents a passport is checked against a list and detained and sent to the Ukraine if they are on it. This is desperation by Putin at its worst. 

[Sampanviking]

There is a major concentration of Ukrainian forces along the Kherson front and the city and surroundings are being evacuated as they expected to become the front line of the biggest single battle of the war so far.

The Russian army is preparing to turn Kherson city into a multi layered fortress and they want all none combatants out of the way.

The estimate of Ukrainian forces vary from 40,000 to 100,000 troops with Russia having some 30,000 on their side.
Apparently this offensive is to give Biden a boost in the November elections, otherwise, if the Democrats lose their majority in the house, the open cheque book policy of Biden may rapisly come to an end.

There have been some significant assaults by the Ukrainians over the last few days, but all have been repelled with heavy casualties.

It is widely accepted that these are aggressive reconnaissance operations in order to identify the Russian order of battle and deployment to help plan the main assault better.
There is however possible that the effect of the autumn mud and the disruption to supplies and mobility caused by the recent attack on Ukraine's power and transport infrastructure are making any larger assaults impossible.

Guess we will see soon enough.

The window of opportunity for the Ukraine is closing rapidly now and Russia is preparing its own offensive operations, widely expected to start as soon as the winter freeze sets in.

[T00ts]

Today Putin has declared Martial law in the 4 areas he annexed meaning that they are expecting even more people to be removed to camps in Russia.

[Nick]

That is a factor, perhaps. Although you may have misheard as I believe it is 15%.

Maybe, I'm just going off what I was told when I was working there. 

[Barry]

And 50% of the population of Israel is Russian.

That is a factor, perhaps. Although you may have misheard as I believe it is 15%.