What is really happening in the Ukraine Conflict?

[cromwell]

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1584783522040086531

[Sheepy]

Kherson, Dams and Dirty Bombs.....

The difficulty in talking about this is that the narratives from either side are now so different its as if they are from different planets!

Listening to Western Media, I realise that they still pushing the narrative that the Ukrainian army is still advancing towards Kherson city and that the Russians are planning to retreat from it and their bridgehead on the West bank of the Dnieper.
From this seems to follow that they are planning to blow the big Dam just a little upriver or indeed are now threatening to explode a dirty bomb to stop the advance of the otherwise victorious Ukrainian army.......

Reality is rather different
First key point is that the front line in this sector has not changed in several weeks now.
The Ukrainian summer offensive ran out of steam a long time ago, with the result being an advance taking a lot of fields, small villages and a few small towns, but achieved at staggering cost in terms of men and material.
The Ukrainians are still launching attacks against the Russian positions, but the results are always the same, repulsed with heavy losses.
I have posted a number of videos over the last few weeks all of which show this picture
This is footage from the last 24 hours
https://twitter.com/DeuNachrichten/status/1584563540366888961

The Russians are evacuating civilians from Kherson City and the West Bank, but are also building up there forces and not withdrawing them.
Incidentally, The Ukrainians are also evacuating the nearby city if Nycolaiv, but I don't hear anyone speculating about them withdrawing, so.....

The Russians have made clear that they are not going anywhere in respect of Kherson. There has though been a lot of talk and deployment of Ukrainian forces for a new Offensive, but so far this has not yet materialised. Maybe the disruption to transport caused by the attacks on the power grid is making this impossible to prepare?
If it does, the Russians are going to roll with the blow and have empties Kherson city to turn it into a fortress.
IT is also widely anticipated that the defeat of a new Ukrainian offensive would now be followed by a Russian offensive towards Nycolaiv, which presumably, is why the Ukrainians are evacuating that city.

Lets be clear, if the Dam is destroyed, the only side to get advantage would be the Ukrainians. as this would be a Russian controlled Dam, producing power and water for Russian controlled territory and the flooded areas are also Russian controlled, including the intended fortress of Kherson City.
There is no advantage to Russia in doing this.

In respect to the Dirty Bomb, this is exactly the same situation as we saw in Syria, where we saw attacks attributed to the Damascus government, but which only gave any potential benefit to side on the defensive, desperate to produce a pretext for direct Western/NATO intervention.
I see no difference here, whatsoever.
I also note that the news of the phone calls on this subject has only been released by the Western Side and not the Russian. If Russia was just doing Propaganda they would have just given a press conference.
I very much suspect, that despite the huffing and puffing from US, UK and France, the actual substance of the calls by Shouigu were all about "actions and consequences"
I also note that absent form the ritual denials and rebuttals is Turkey, who have not supported the position of its NATO allies in this.....

Well, as per always, we shall see.

I hear on the grapevine the Yanks are really looking to piss the Russians off, nothing new in that, they have managed to piss just about everybody else off.

[Sampanviking]

Kherson, Dams and Dirty Bombs.....

The difficulty in talking about this is that the narratives from either side are now so different its as if they are from different planets!

Listening to Western Media, I realise that they still pushing the narrative that the Ukrainian army is still advancing towards Kherson city and that the Russians are planning to retreat from it and their bridgehead on the West bank of the Dnieper.
From this seems to follow that they are planning to blow the big Dam just a little upriver or indeed are now threatening to explode a dirty bomb to stop the advance of the otherwise victorious Ukrainian army.......

Reality is rather different
First key point is that the front line in this sector has not changed in several weeks now.
The Ukrainian summer offensive ran out of steam a long time ago, with the result being an advance taking a lot of fields, small villages and a few small towns, but achieved at staggering cost in terms of men and material.
The Ukrainians are still launching attacks against the Russian positions, but the results are always the same, repulsed with heavy losses.
I have posted a number of videos over the last few weeks all of which show this picture
This is footage from the last 24 hours
https://twitter.com/DeuNachrichten/status/1584563540366888961

The Russians are evacuating civilians from Kherson City and the West Bank, but are also building up there forces and not withdrawing them.
Incidentally, The Ukrainians are also evacuating the nearby city if Nycolaiv, but I don't hear anyone speculating about them withdrawing, so.....

The Russians have made clear that they are not going anywhere in respect of Kherson. There has though been a lot of talk and deployment of Ukrainian forces for a new Offensive, but so far this has not yet materialised. Maybe the disruption to transport caused by the attacks on the power grid is making this impossible to prepare?
If it does, the Russians are going to roll with the blow and have empties Kherson city to turn it into a fortress.
IT is also widely anticipated that the defeat of a new Ukrainian offensive would now be followed by a Russian offensive towards Nycolaiv, which presumably, is why the Ukrainians are evacuating that city.

Lets be clear, if the Dam is destroyed, the only side to get advantage would be the Ukrainians. as this would be a Russian controlled Dam, producing power and water for Russian controlled territory and the flooded areas are also Russian controlled, including the intended fortress of Kherson City.
There is no advantage to Russia in doing this.

In respect to the Dirty Bomb, this is exactly the same situation as we saw in Syria, where we saw attacks attributed to the Damascus government, but which only gave any potential benefit to side on the defensive, desperate to produce a pretext for direct Western/NATO intervention.
I see no difference here, whatsoever.
I also note that the news of the phone calls on this subject has only been released by the Western Side and not the Russian. If Russia was just doing Propaganda they would have just given a press conference.
I very much suspect, that despite the huffing and puffing from US, UK and France, the actual substance of the calls by Shouigu were all about "actions and consequences"
I also note that absent form the ritual denials and rebuttals is Turkey, who have not supported the position of its NATO allies in this.....

Well, as per always, we shall see.

[Borchester]

Yet another failed assault on Russian lines in Kherson

https://twitter.com/200_zoka/status/1583739566431010816

Still fairly small scale and localised though, no sign yet of the big all out push that Kiev has been promising.

Elsewhere, the Wagner group continues its slow encirclement of the the Donetsk Fortress of Bakhmut and in Kharkov, the Russians continue to reclaim territory East of the Ostkil river

Merely a matter of hours before the Russians launch their counter attack and they advance up the M3 to wipe out Zelensky's nest of Neo Nazis in Kiev.

What do you reckon Sam? Home before Ded Moroz calls?

[Sampanviking]

Yet another failed assault on Russian lines in Kherson

https://twitter.com/200_zoka/status/1583739566431010816

Still fairly small scale and localised though, no sign yet of the big all out push that Kiev has been promising.

Elsewhere, the Wagner group continues its slow encirclement of the the Donetsk Fortress of Bakhmut and in Kharkov, the Russians continue to reclaim territory East of the Ostkil river

[Sampanviking]

Leave where? Russia?

No The Ukraine

Footage is footage whichever channel its spread through. You Tube, Facebook, Twitter, Telegram, Rumble and all the others.
Given the censorship and pure propaganda bilge output from the MSM what option is there?

The footage though is real and just another example of the Ukrainians being blown to hell against the Russian lines.
Kherson is also being evacuated of civilians and massively reinforced with regulars.
Looks like they intend to break the Ukrainian army once and for all in Kherson, which is probably why Zelensky is threatening to try and blow the Dam and flood the city of Kherson and its environs.

[Nick]

Probably not, but certain countries are saying their citizens should leave forthwith, so I guess they believe it is going to take a turn of some kind.

Leave where? Russia?

[Sheepy]

Twitter is now real life is it 😂

Probably not, but certain countries are saying their citizens should leave forthwith, so I guess they believe it is going to take a turn of some kind.

[Nick]

Meanwhile, back in the real world, footage from another failed Ukrainian armoured assault on the Kherson front line.

https://twitter.com/owarino_outsuke/status/1583392020701523969

Twitter is now real life is it 😂 

[Sampanviking]

Meanwhile, back in the real world, footage from another failed Ukrainian armoured assault on the Kherson front line.

https://twitter.com/owarino_outsuke/status/1583392020701523969

[Nick]

When I was on my travels, I always get a view from real people, which was very often completely different from what we were told was their views, strange but true.

Indeed, did you have imaginary travels and friends also? 😆 

[Sheepy]

If you want Meme's I have a good one today

When I was on my travels, I always get a view from real people, which was very often completely different from what we were told was their views, strange but true.

[Sampanviking]

If you want Meme's I have a good one today

[Nick]

[Sampanviking]

I haven't insinuated anything and I haven't convinced myself of anything. I've reported what I was told yesterday, but clearly you you know better than someone living in Russia.

I think you need a new imaginary friend and your current one is taking the pee out of you