What is really happening in the Ukraine Conflict?

[Sampanviking]

Are you really saying Russia could withstand an assault by NATO? Russia wouldn't last a week. Ukraine has been restricted to what targets it can attack with NATO equipment, and also they don't have the latest tech. NATO would have the Russian Black Sea fleet destroyed within minutes, the bridge would be destroyed and F-22 / F-35 / Typhoons would be ruling the skies from carriers based in the now safe Black Sea.

You do know that the U.S. spends 3 times Russia's entire government budget just on their military?

They are withstanding an assault by NATO, that is exactly what this war is. Obviously nobody wants this to be open and so both sides are fighting with one hand tied behind their back.
The attacks against the Black Sea Fleet and the Bridge probably did not have a single Ukrainian actively involved, all NATO technicians and advisors. Attacks only possible because US recon drones, planes and satellites have not been targeted.  In an  open war they obviously would be.

I would say that you over estimate NATO ridiculously. Mostly its another Ponzi scam like the EU to bleed the taxpayer. What exactly can the European countries field today, especially after the Inventories of their Arsenals have been depleted to a level that is alarming Professionals and which may take decades to replenish.

F22's and F35's? the last of the NATO Wunderwaffe after every other weapon system sent has burnt on the Steppe just like any other. US Carriers in the Black Sea would be sitting ducks and the yanks know it.

The UK apparently would struggle to put a single Brigade into the field at the moment. The Russians are eating up these sized units in a matter of weeks.

On top of this of course, no Western country has fought a real modern war like the war in the Ukraine. Those ex servicemen volunteers at the beginning that went to the Ukraine stood for one attack and then legged it back over the border.

The Russian Juggernaut is never pretty, always slow at the beginning, but always ramps up and up and up and nearly always wins.
This war looks like no exception. 

Overall, there is a real Ardennes Offensive feel about the Ukrainian excursion into Kursk, a last desperate action while the other fronts crumble at ever increasing speed.

I cant see the Russians agreeing to Peace Talks now, unless its unconditional surrender. Why should they, they look able to take all they want and the West has broken every previous treaty it has signed before the ink was dry.

[srb7677]

I agree about the pause but I don't agree about underestimating Russia. A Russian fighter pilot ejected from his jet after being shot down over a year ago, when he was captured he was found to have been re-drafted due to pilot shortages and was 60 odd years old. I have a Russian friend who is ex navy he is 56 and has been dodging call up for a couple of years. Russia is on its arse when it comes to experienced forces, they are using young men as cannon fodder and pose no threat to nato under conventional methods. Regarding the nuclear threat, Putin is knocking on and I believe he is likely to get a piece of lead in his rear any time soon. He knows it, that's why he has a table 50 feet long and everyone sits at the other end: he trusts no one. If you're in the prime of your life, are you going to press the button on the orders of an old man, knowing that you are going to get ten fold back at you? No, you're going to stick a bullet in Putins head and bring to a close the war you never wanted in the first place.
That's my take on the situation for what it's worth.

Again, you might well be right but it is nevertheless sensible not to be certain about that just in case. And when it comes to reserves of manpower to provide cannon fodder, Russia has vastly more potential people to put in a uniform.

And we should not dismiss the possibility that when it comes to pushing the nuclear buttons, Putin may well have people in place to do it who depend upon him for their own survival. If we push him into a corner we risk pushing them into the same corner with nothing left to lose. With potential threats like that we should always be mindful to allow him a reasonable path of retreat he can sell as some sort of success, without conceding anything essential, eg banning Ukrainian neo-Nazi groups which he can sell as a victory in his fight against Nazis, however implausible that would look to the rest of us.

[Nick]

What you say is probably correct. But I just have a cautionary pause for thought. Russia was underestimated before, not only by Hitler but we in the west believed just as readily that it would be speedily crushed - and this only a couple of years after a disastrously costly and not hugely successful aggression against Finland. Never underestimate the Russian people. And we in any case need to ensure we don't push their leadership into a corner where they have nothing left to lose, because their ability to fire nukes as a last resort cannot be dismissed if we do that.

It is also very possible that NATO might have to fight without US backing, which is a potentially serious game changer. The best way to not have to fight is to be ready to.

I agree about the pause but I don't agree about underestimating Russia. A Russian fighter pilot ejected from his jet after being shot down over a year ago, when he was captured he was found to have been re-drafted due to pilot shortages and was 60 odd years old. I have a Russian friend who is ex navy he is 56 and has been dodging call up for a couple of years. Russia is on its arse when it comes to experienced forces, they are using young men as cannon fodder and pose no threat to nato under conventional methods. Regarding the nuclear threat, Putin is knocking on and I believe he is likely to get a piece of lead in his rear any time soon. He knows it, that's why he has a table 50 feet long and everyone sits at the other end: he trusts no one. If you're in the prime of your life, are you going to press the button on the orders of an old man, knowing that you are going to get ten fold back at you? No, you're going to stick a bullet in Putins head and bring to a close the war you never wanted in the first place. 
That's my take on the situation for what it's worth. 

[srb7677]

Are you really saying Russia could withstand an assault by NATO? Russia wouldn't last a week. Ukraine has been restricted to what targets it can attack with NATO equipment, and also they don't have the latest tech. NATO would have the Russian Black Sea fleet destroyed within minutes, the bridge would be destroyed and F-22 / F-35 / Typhoons would be ruling the skies from carriers based in the now safe Black Sea.

You do know that the U.S. spends 3 times Russia's entire government budget just on their military?

What you say is probably correct. But I just have a cautionary pause for thought. Russia was underestimated before, not only by Hitler but we in the west believed just as readily that it would be speedily crushed - and this only a couple of years after a disastrously costly and not hugely successful aggression against Finland. Never underestimate the Russian people. And we in any case need to ensure we don't push their leadership into a corner where they have nothing left to lose, because their ability to fire nukes as a last resort cannot be dismissed if we do that.

It is also very possible that NATO might have to fight without US backing, which is a potentially serious game changer. The best way to not have to fight is to be ready to.

[cromwell]

https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1822649918323880386


You've got to give it the Ukrainians.

[Nick]

That's a very tired old Trope there Nick

The Ukrainian Army has been NATO funded and trained since 2015.
Most of the old defensive line was built to NATO standard overseen by NATO military engineers
Since 2022, the level of funding in terms of cash and Material of the Ukrainian Armed Forces has propelled it into the Global top ten.
The Ukrainian Army is trained by NATO
The Ukrainian Army is equipped by NATO
The Ukrainian Army is being assisted by NATO officers
NATO technicians are operating most of the very high end systems
NATO Recon Aircraft, Drones and Satellites are providing real time battlefield information, mostly being interpreted and notified by NATO officers.

If the Ukrainian Armed Forces are not a NATO army, then what in Gods name is?

Furthermore, they are still losing.

As for Kursk, the initial break through looks to be contained and only some Tactical objectives secured. The Way to the NPP looks fully blocked and secured by the Russians. The territory has some forests, but mostly is waterways and open fields with tree lines, just the same as on the other side of the border.

I noted an interesting comment as to how the Ukrainians were able to do this. It reinforces the notion that the Russians were planning there own new offensive and that the extensive minefields that used to protect the border had been grubbed up to allow the Russian Army to go through. In order to attack, the Ukrainians would have needed to remove their mines as well.
If this is the case, then the Ukrainians will have attacked into an area with a major Russian attack force situated in their rear bases.
This means that these elite Ukrainian Brigades are effectively trapped where they are, because if they fall back the Russians can follow and there will be nothing to stop them.

Are you really saying Russia could withstand an assault by NATO? Russia wouldn't last a week. Ukraine has been restricted to what targets it can attack with NATO equipment, and also they don't have the latest tech. NATO would have the Russian Black Sea fleet destroyed within minutes, the bridge would be destroyed and F-22 / F-35 / Typhoons would be ruling the skies from carriers based in the now safe Black Sea.

You do know that the U.S. spends 3 times Russia's entire government budget just on their military? 

[Sampanviking]

That's a very tired old Trope there Nick

The Ukrainian Army has been NATO funded and trained since 2015.
Most of the old defensive line was built to NATO standard overseen by NATO military engineers
Since 2022, the level of funding in terms of cash and Material of the Ukrainian Armed Forces has propelled it into the Global top ten.
The Ukrainian Army is trained by NATO
The Ukrainian Army is equipped by NATO
The Ukrainian Army is being assisted by NATO officers
NATO technicians are operating most of the very high end systems
NATO Recon Aircraft, Drones and Satellites are providing real time battlefield information, mostly being interpreted and notified by NATO officers.

If the Ukrainian Armed Forces are not a NATO army, then what in Gods name is?

Furthermore, they are still losing.

As for Kursk, the initial break through looks to be contained and only some Tactical objectives secured. The Way to the NPP looks fully blocked and secured by the Russians. The territory has some forests, but mostly is waterways and open fields with tree lines, just the same as on the other side of the border.

I noted an interesting comment as to how the Ukrainians were able to do this. It reinforces the notion that the Russians were planning there own new offensive and that the extensive minefields that used to protect the border had been grubbed up to allow the Russian Army to go through. In order to attack, the Ukrainians would have needed to remove their mines as well.
If this is the case, then the Ukrainians will have attacked into an area with a major Russian attack force situated in their rear bases.
This means that these elite Ukrainian Brigades are effectively trapped where they are, because if they fall back the Russians can follow and there will be nothing to stop them.

[Nick]

Just a few thoughts on Ukraine's incursion into Kursk

Its all very strange

For several months now, the main talk about Kursk was about the concentration of a large Russian Force intended for a new Russian front into the Sumy Region. This has been backed up by relentless air and artillery strikes on Ukrainian military targets in the area and deep penetration attacks by Russian Sabotage and Reconnaissance.

Yet somehow a massive Ukrainian build up was missed and when the Ukrainians crossed the border, there were hardly any Russian forces in sight.
This has led the Ukrainians to commit virtually all of their best forces, most of which are NATO trained and equipped. Many of these units have been taken from other fronts in the Donbass, where the Russians are now advancing effectively unhindered on many fronts.

The goal of the incursion is widely supposed to be Kursk Nuclear Power station and together with the rest of the captured territory, rationalised as intended as negotiation leverage in any forthcoming peace negotiations to balance against the Russian held Nuclear Power Station in Zaphorisia and of course the Russian held territory in Kharkov.

My 10 penneth however is that Ukraine has walked into a baited trap. A trap intended for its best units, to take them from the relevant comfort of a Defensive position deep in home territory and to leave them exposed in enemy territory, at the end of a long and badly damaged logistics infrastructure and in a war zone where Russia not only has its Contract soldiers, but where it can also use its huge Conscript army, which is legally prevented from operating on the territory of the SMO, but which can be unleashed on sovereign Russia.

When you are the one outgunned, a salient can quickly become an artillery pocket and one that the Russians will be able to fire into from deep behind the front lines and beyond nearly any form of counter battery fire the Ukrainians can attempt.

A final thought, the last battle that started at Kursk, ended in Berlin.

I think you are giving Russia far too much respect. Their generals are incompetent and their soldiers useless, NATO would have had this war wrapped up in a matter of weeks with same resources that Russia has. The region between Ukraine and Kursk is very dense forest from what I remember, I've been to Kursk twice, once on the overnight train from Moscow and once in a taxi from Kharkiv. The point being, it would be very easy to mass a surprise attack in the region, especially when Russia wasn't looking. 
The difference is that Ukraine are posting video and pictures of its forces inside Kursk and also the burned out remains of a Russian convoy that they took out en-route. 

[Sampanviking]

Just a few thoughts on Ukraine's incursion into Kursk

Its all very strange

For several months now, the main talk about Kursk was about the concentration of a large Russian Force intended for a new Russian front into the Sumy Region. This has been backed up by relentless air and artillery strikes on Ukrainian military targets in the area and deep penetration attacks by Russian Sabotage and Reconnaissance.

Yet somehow a massive Ukrainian build up was missed and when the Ukrainians crossed the border, there were hardly any Russian forces in sight.
This has led the Ukrainians to commit virtually all of their best forces, most of which are NATO trained and equipped. Many of these units have been taken from other fronts in the Donbass, where the Russians are now advancing effectively unhindered on many fronts.

The goal of the incursion is widely supposed to be Kursk Nuclear Power station and together with the rest of the captured territory, rationalised as intended as negotiation leverage in any forthcoming peace negotiations to balance against the Russian held Nuclear Power Station in Zaphorisia and of course the Russian held territory in Kharkov.

My 10 penneth however is that Ukraine has walked into a baited trap. A trap intended for its best units, to take them from the relevant comfort of a Defensive position deep in home territory and to leave them exposed in enemy territory, at the end of a long and badly damaged logistics infrastructure and in a war zone where Russia not only has its Contract soldiers, but where it can also use its huge Conscript army, which is legally prevented from operating on the territory of the SMO, but which can be unleashed on sovereign Russia.

When you are the one outgunned, a salient can quickly become an artillery pocket and one that the Russians will be able to fire into from deep behind the front lines and beyond nearly any form of counter battery fire the Ukrainians can attempt.

A final thought, the last battle that started at Kursk, ended in Berlin.

 

[Sampanviking]

Hello Sampan we sometimes disagree but good to see you back;)

Hi Cromwell

Same here, good to see some old friends again

[cromwell]

Hello Sampan we sometimes disagree but good to see you back;)

[Nick]

Hey Ho - so The Ukraine still winning?

Obviously not and now several sections of the front are collapsing as The Ukrainian units are giving up and leaving their positions without orders.
Those that do not are being surrounded in real cauldrons for the first time.

Hopefully all the Hubris, Hyperbole and Propaganda of the last two years is falling away and the stark reality of the Neo-cons failure in this project is becoming clear to all but the most rabid of true believers.

Until the U.S. has just sent $60 billion worth of amp and secret long range missiles. Good to know you're happy to see the Ruskies making ground. 

[Sampanviking]

Hey Ho - so The Ukraine still winning?

Obviously not and now several sections of the front are collapsing as The Ukrainian units are giving up and leaving their positions without orders.
Those that do not are being surrounded in real cauldrons for the first time.

Hopefully all the Hubris, Hyperbole and Propaganda of the last two years is falling away and the stark reality of the Neo-cons failure in this project is becoming clear to all but the most rabid of true believers.

[Sheepy]

And the NATO clown show continues.........
The Russians fight by lobbing artillery rounds and missiles at stationary dug in targets at a rate of about 10 to 1 for Ukrainian return fire. When they advance, opposition is usually already crushed. Which is why genuine OSINT both amateur and state level/professional are putting the Russian KIA/missing numbers at about 30,000 while the Ukrainians KIA/Missing are well over 160,000 (maybe already at 200,000) since the start of the SMO

But hey, keep drinking the BBC koolaid, of course the Ukraine is winning. Its winning so hard that its already lost the army it started the war with, it continued winning so hard it lost the second army that NATO gave it over the Spring and Summer of last year, when Western countries emptied their entire mothball reserve equipment stocks to send them and is still winning so hard now that it is begging desperately for another new army and the West is now having to send its actually front line inventory to them in order to give it to them.

One thing for sure, if you show enough interest then there is reason to escalate it, if you show no interest, then no point in it. 

[Sampanviking]

Roughly 30,000 per month. Putin must be so proud.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64616099

And the NATO clown show continues.........
The Russians fight by lobbing artillery rounds and missiles at stationary dug in targets at a rate of about 10 to 1 for Ukrainian return fire. When they advance, opposition is usually already crushed. Which is why genuine OSINT both amateur and state level/professional are putting the Russian KIA/missing numbers at about 30,000 while the Ukrainians KIA/Missing are well over 160,000 (maybe already at 200,000) since the start of the SMO

But hey, keep drinking the BBC koolaid, of course the Ukraine is winning. Its winning so hard that its already lost the army it started the war with, it continued winning so hard it lost the second army that NATO gave it over the Spring and Summer of last year, when Western countries emptied their entire mothball reserve equipment stocks to send them and is still winning so hard now that it is begging desperately for another new army and the West is now having to send its actually front line inventory to them in order to give it to them.