What is really happening in the Ukraine Conflict?

Started by Sampanviking, March 18, 2022, 01:00:53 AM

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Sampanviking

Quote from: Nick on September 14, 2024, 10:27:15 AM
NATO will not be firing these missiles, they will be Ukrainian servicemen. The arms will be NATO, same as Russia is using Iranian and N Korean arms. What's the difference?
If the Ukrainians could fire them unaided they would and it would not be a problem for NATO countries. They already use NATO supplied drones and other equipment which they are using to attack deep inside Russia, so why would they baulk at another delivery system.

The difference is that to use these precision missiles, they need access codes for targeting and guidance that no military in going to share unless with a very close treaty ally. Ukraine is not a member of NATO and is not regarded as such.
If Storm Shadow shadow is used
The Target request would be submitted by the Ukraine to UK authorities
If approved, passed to the MOD.
Passed to the Operational Service
Orders issued by British Officers
Orders implemented by British Servicmen.
Missiles directly guided by NATO guidance and targeting systems

It would be the Ukraine asking the UK to directly attack targets in Russia.

They have been able to get away with doing this around Crimea, because Western Governments have never recognised Russian Sovereignty over the Crimea. There is no such cover for the rest of the Russian Federation, it is an act of war, period.

Just because you don't want to accept reality, does not make it any less real and every serious commentator, many with a Military Service History is saying exactly this. 

Scott777

Quote from: BeElBeeBub on September 13, 2024, 06:33:56 PM
🤣😂🤣😂🤣😂

Ah yes, that tireless crusader against authoritarian governments everywhere. Him and his mates in (checks notes) China, Iran and North Korea are like the Justice League against the new world order.


Try to be more clever.  Putin can be authoritarian and still prefer his own power and control, rather than conceding it to the West and risk being killed.
Those princes who have done great things have held good faith of little account, and have known how to craftily circumvent the intellect of men.  Niccolò Machiavelli.

Scott777

Quote from: BeElBeeBub on September 13, 2024, 06:32:42 PM
Why is that important?
Nit every single detail and policy needs to be or can be articulated before an election. That's bit how it works, anywhere

VY didn't say he would sign deal with Russian either, yet he did in December. Surely signs of a Russian coup? (/s)

It's important because I'm trying to show that the revolution didn't just happen because of VY decisions.  They voted for him based on better relations with both Russia and the West.
Those princes who have done great things have held good faith of little account, and have known how to craftily circumvent the intellect of men.  Niccolò Machiavelli.

Nick

Quote from: Sampanviking on September 14, 2024, 09:58:53 AM
No one in their right minds would promote Nuclear War.
What is being discussed here are attacks against the Russian heartland that can only be carried out by NATO servicemen through NATO military infrastructure. Russia is making it plain that this is the red line (a genuine Russian Red Line not the fake tabloid alledged Red lines from our media) that would be crossed.

If Russia is attacked by NATO, Russia would not be alone as it has allies of its own that will be under treaty obligation, to join the fight directly with Russia. I note today that the spin in the Western Media is about using "NATO supplied weapons to strike inside Russia".
As previously pointed out, this is already happening and so hardly a new development, so looks like a bit of walk back from the West.
NATO will not be firing these missiles, they will be Ukrainian servicemen. The arms will be NATO, same as Russia is using Iranian and N Korean arms. What's the difference?
I can explain it to you, but I can't understand it for you.

Sampanviking

Quote from: Nick on September 13, 2024, 09:57:47 PM
China has warned Russia against using Nuclear therefore they won't. Russia will NOT go up against a full blown NATO, they won't last a week, and Putin will end up with a bit of lead in his war. Your communist leaning views will not save Russia if they are foolish to engage with NATO.
No one in their right minds would promote Nuclear War. 
What is being discussed here are attacks against the Russian heartland that can only be carried out by NATO servicemen through NATO military infrastructure. Russia is making it plain that this is the red line (a genuine Russian Red Line not the fake tabloid alledged Red lines from our media) that would be crossed.

If Russia is attacked by NATO, Russia would not be alone as it has allies of its own that will be under treaty obligation, to join the fight directly with Russia. I note today that the spin in the Western Media is about using "NATO supplied weapons to strike inside Russia".
As previously pointed out, this is already happening and so hardly a new development, so looks like a bit of walk back from the West. 

BeElBeeBub

Quote from: Sampanviking on September 13, 2024, 06:42:03 PM
Irrespective, the Southern Donetsk Fronts continue to collapse in Russia's favour and we can now see heavily fortified lines built back in 2014 being abandoned and the Ukrainian army retreating tens of kilometers to avoid encirclement in what are now nothing more Artillery Pockets.
If you follow the direction of travel, you can now see the Russians advancing on a very wide front and that this front will be able to sweep and encircle the City of Proversk, which means that the Russians will be able to start a seige without leaving their flanks exposed.

In addition we also have a major Russian Counter Offensive in the Kursk region which has already seen the collapse of the Ukrainians Northern salient and Western Flank, which seems to positively imploding!. Yes the Ukrainians are trying to counter attack to the West of the Salient, but this so far seems to be not progressing very significantly. Possible it will get some traction, but probably not enough to save the main Salient captured in August.
A large encirclement of Ukrainian troops in Kursk is now looking a distinct possibility.

Interesting days.
I can't help feeling you are cheering a bit here. 

Unlucky4Sum

Quote from: Scott777 on September 13, 2024, 10:10:04 AM
Yes I did.  Your claim is false.  Now run along to detention where you will learn to stop lying.
What a nasty piece of work you try to be - but fail spectacularly with your risible posting.

Had you looked you would have seen multiple references to demonstrators shot by Yanukovich's snipers.  I've seen some of the video of it and it's disturbing stuff.

Nick

Quote from: Sampanviking on September 13, 2024, 07:32:56 PM
So had London then.....
China has warned Russia against using Nuclear therefore they won't. Russia will NOT go up against a full blown NATO, they won't last a week, and Putin will end up with a bit of lead in his war. Your communist leaning views will not save Russia if they are foolish to engage with NATO. 
I can explain it to you, but I can't understand it for you.

Sampanviking

Quote from: Nick on September 13, 2024, 07:06:45 PM
It's looking like Putin has a lot of trouble coming his way in the form of long range missiles. Moscow better batten down the hatches cause this is sure to be the target.
So had London then.....

Nick

It's looking like Putin has a lot of trouble coming his way in the form of long range missiles. Moscow better batten down the hatches cause this is sure to be the target. 
I can explain it to you, but I can't understand it for you.

papasmurf

Quote from: Sampanviking on September 13, 2024, 06:42:03 PM
Does anyone really not understand that the UK is a subjugated nation within the US empire
What are you smoking?
Nemini parco qui vivit in orbe

Sampanviking

Does anyone really not understand that the UK is a subjugated nation within the US empire and that the US empire is probably the most aggressive and expansionistic empire that the world has ever seen. Even more so than the British Empire was?

Has there been a single year in the last 70 years where the US has not been at war, actively invading nations, actively bombing nations, actively destabilizing resistant nations, causing Coups, and generally interfering in the Internal affairs of other nations?

Clearly the US believed it had won world domination forever after the collapse of the Soviet Union and now it has to wake up to what it must find the very uncomfortable reality that it no longer is and that others can do to them, what they have long believed their exceptional right to do to others??!!

Irrespective, the Southern Donetsk Fronts continue to collapse in Russia's favour and we can now see heavily fortified lines built back in 2014 being abandoned and the Ukrainian army retreating tens of kilometers to avoid encirclement in what are now nothing more Artillery Pockets.
If you follow the direction of travel, you can now see the Russians advancing on a very wide front and that this front will be able to sweep and encircle the City of Proversk, which means that the Russians will be able to start a seige without leaving their flanks exposed.

In addition we also have a major Russian Counter Offensive in the Kursk region which has already seen the collapse of the Ukrainians Northern salient and Western Flank, which seems to positively imploding!. Yes the Ukrainians are trying to counter attack to the West of the Salient, but this so far seems to be not progressing very significantly. Possible it will get some traction, but probably not enough to save the main Salient captured in August.
A large encirclement of Ukrainian troops in Kursk is now looking a distinct possibility.

Interesting days. 

BeElBeeBub

Quote from: Scott777 on September 13, 2024, 05:51:59 PM
A thorn in the side of global government.
🤣😂🤣😂🤣😂

Ah yes, that tireless crusader against authoritarian governments everywhere. Him and his mates in (checks notes) China, Iran and North Korea are like the Justice League against the new world order. 

BeElBeeBub

Quote from: Scott777 on September 13, 2024, 05:59:39 PM
You forgot to say whether that was after or before election.
Why is that important? 
Nit every single detail and policy needs to be or can be articulated before an election. That's bit how it works, anywhere 

VY didn't say he would sign deal with Russian either, yet he did in December. Surely signs of a Russian coup? (/s) 

Scott777

Quote from: BeElBeeBub on September 13, 2024, 04:46:55 PM

For several years VY had been touting the association agreement. He had been cajolijg his parliament to pass the necessary laws. The population could see that. They were looking forward to a slice of what Poland and Slovakia and Romania had got when they started moving closer to the EU.


You forgot to say whether that was after or before election.

Quote from: BeElBeeBub on September 13, 2024, 04:46:55 PM

The initial. Protest weren't violent at all. Some slight scuffle which are to expected whenever you have thousands in a. Tight space with riot police. But nothing major.

Here are some contemporary news articles

BBC 7 days in
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-25162563

Kyiv Post 5 days in
https://archive.kyivpost.com/article/content/euromaidan/euromaidan-rallies-in-ukraine-nov-21-23-coverage-332423.html

Usually violent coups are fast and involve the army taking over. If you as staging a coup you need speed. You can't sit around whilst a bunch of civilians build campfires and sing aongs and hope thr leadership decides to quit.


So you'll be able to explain why the 'snipers' needed to shoot protesters just hanging around, or police to attack them.  If there was no threat, why?  And why did they occupy government buildings?

A violent coup does not require the military.  The police left central Kiev, leaving the government exposed.  Why do you think the cops fled?
Those princes who have done great things have held good faith of little account, and have known how to craftily circumvent the intellect of men.  Niccolò Machiavelli.