What is really happening in the Ukraine Conflict?

[B0ycey]

Sorry pal, but thats not strictly true. I don't buy the big bad bear rhetoric either. But US military logistics is an order of magnitude higher than the Russians could ever field, and pretending any different is bullshit

Russian military logistics relies (and has always relied) on a functioning rail network, because its radius of supply (from a secure location) is much more limited than that of the US. There is a trade off in keeping up with battlefield technology, and that, coupled with a crap road network in eastern Europe, meant the Soviets and lately the Russian federation, saw limited return in investing in lowly battlefield logistics. We were taught this in the cold war. Destroy bridges and contest chokes points, because Soviet logistics is last centuury. The Russians will not destroy the infrastructure, especially the rail network, because they need it to advance. Read WW2 history. Not much has changed since then.

The Soviets might have relied on rail during the Russian revolution against the White Army, they don't rely on it now. If they haven't targeted it, it is because it isn't needed to be targeted. Sometimes people really should just listen to what they say. This war is about demilitarsation and denazification of Ukraine. Whether the plan initially was to take Keiv and place in a dummy government we will never know. But what we do know is the objective of this war. Russia aren't targeting civilians or infrastructure. They do however target military sites. The reason the mall and the hospital got bombed, wasn't to attack Ukrainians but because those sites were being used to house military personnel and equipment. So there isn't a need to target and destroy Ukraine completely because ultimately Russia will most likely want to be part of the rebuilding of Ukraine. And from what they said yesterday, they must think that Ukraine has had its offensive capacity eliminated which was their first objective. The next objective is now denazification. Melitopol isn't getting targeted because of its strategic importance but because it is home to the Avov Battalion whom are Neo-Nazis. Russia have focused most of their effort East because Eastern Ukraine is more pro Russian. There is logic in why Donatsk and Luhansk should be independent. I was reading yesterday that Ukraine seem stubborn not declaring Russian as an official language of Ukraine which doesn't make sense given these areas are Russian speaking. These stall talks which means the war continues. That isn't good for anyone, most certainly those stuck in Malitopol. I hope we can see another corridor offered to get those out but given the last one Ukraine declined the offer, it maybe irrelevant anyway. I expect a retreat from Kiev in the coming days and more deployment in Donbass. My guess the second phase of this war will be the peacekeeping mission. Pushing Ukraine out of Luhansk and Donatsk and protecting these districts. We can also expect more offensive against the Avov Battalion. The rest of Ukraine will likely be spared like the railways given that isn't part of the objective of this war. Russia aren't America. They aren't in Ukraine for nation building but peacekeeping. And given Armenia is asking for more Russian troops, it maybe some that are currently stationed and sitting in Keiv will be deployed there. 

[Sampanviking]

Sorry pal, but thats not strictly true. I don't buy the big bad bear rhetoric either. But US military logistics is an order of magnitude higher than the Russians could ever field, and pretending any different is bullshit

Russian military logistics relies (and has always relied) on a functioning rail network, because its radius of supply (from a secure location) is much more limited than that of the US. There is a trade off in keeping up with battlefield technology, and that, coupled with a crap road network in eastern Europe, meant the Soviets and lately the Russian federation, saw limited return in investing in lowly battlefield logistics. We were taught this in the cold war. Destroy bridges and contest chokes points, because Soviet logistics is last centuury. The Russians will not destroy the infrastructure, especially the rail network, because they need it to advance. Read WW2 history. Not much has changed since then.

Which is rather one of the points I was making. Yes they need them to advance and as long as the prospect of advance exists they will want to keep them. By return, the moment their back is "against the wall" and under pressure from "Advancing Counterattacking Ukrainian forces", that logic no longer applies and it makes better sense to bomb the infrastructure and slow/stop the enemy.

The lack of such a change in posture rather suggests that Belgrade Biden was speaking out of his fundamental this morning.

[DeppityDawg]

Radio 4 was making a big play this morning about the role of the Ukrainian railway network to help move refugees from the East and Center of Ukraine to the Western borders and EU countries.
The item however excluded one key factor from its report, the fact that these railways are only still moving and functioning, because the network, bridges, stations, marshaling yards and indeed power stations, have not been target by Russian Aviation or Missiles. Indeed no critical infrastructure, including the road and rail bridges over the Dnieper have been targeted or hit.

Given the ease with which Russian precision missiles have attacked military targets in all locations in the Ukraine, this is clearly the result of deliberate policy and not through lack of capability.
These targets would have been among the first things to be hit, when the US started any of its Invasions and so the lack of such attacks by the Russians tells it own story and is an easy level of escalation, should the Russian forces suddenly feel under uncomfortable pressure.

Sorry pal, but thats not strictly true. I don't buy the big bad bear rhetoric either. But US military logistics is an order of magnitude higher than the Russians could ever field, and pretending any different is bullshit

Russian military logistics relies (and has always relied) on a functioning rail network, because its radius of supply (from a secure location) is much more limited than that of the US. There is a trade off in keeping up with battlefield technology, and that, coupled with a crap road network in eastern Europe, meant the Soviets and lately the Russian federation, saw limited return in investing in lowly battlefield logistics. We were taught this in the cold war. Destroy bridges and contest chokes points, because Soviet logistics is last centuury. The Russians will not destroy the infrastructure, especially the rail network, because they need it to advance. Read WW2 history. Not much has changed since then.

[Sampanviking]

Radio 4 was making a big play this morning about the role of the Ukrainian railway network to help move refugees from the East and Center of Ukraine to the Western borders and EU countries.
The item however excluded one key factor from its report, the fact that these railways are only still moving and functioning, because the network, bridges, stations, marshaling yards and indeed power stations, have not been target by Russian Aviation or Missiles. Indeed no critical infrastructure, including the road and rail bridges over the Dnieper have been targeted or hit.

Given the ease with which Russian precision missiles have attacked military targets in all locations in the Ukraine, this is clearly the result of deliberate policy and not through lack of capability.
These targets would have been among the first things to be hit, when the US started any of its Invasions and so the lack of such attacks by the Russians tells it own story and is an easy level of escalation, should the Russian forces suddenly feel under uncomfortable pressure.

[cromwell]

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/exclusive-chinas-sinopec-pauses-russia-projects-beijing-wary-sanctions-sources-2022-03-25/

[cromwell]

Sounds like a load of Bulwarks to me Cromwell, more like projection and wishful thinking
EX US Marine Brian Berletic has done a debunking video today on today;s claims as per the above. I was going to put it in the Propaganda thread, but as you made that last post.....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HtCOCHeqFmc

Sounds to me like
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G2wkO0DhpEY

We'll find out.........eventually.

[Sampanviking]

Might not be going to plan.

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-news-latest-russia-war-putin-nuclear-live-mariupol-12541713

Sounds like a load of Bulwarks to me Cromwell, more like projection and wishful thinking
EX US Marine Brian Berletic has done a debunking video today on today;s claims as per the above. I was going to put it in the Propaganda thread, but as you made that last post.....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HtCOCHeqFmc

[cromwell]

Might not be going to plan.

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-news-latest-russia-war-putin-nuclear-live-mariupol-12541713

[johnofgwent]

It is reasonable to assume there is much more to the Skripal case than that.  Novichock which poisoned him, and just happened to be a few miles from the only place in the UK which kept Novichock.
We may not have a record of the "Ukranian bloke" using, or planning, to use chemical weapons, but do we have a record that the Russians poisoned Skripal?

And on the basis of blaming the Russians on something, absent of 'records', you're happy to act with extreme prejudice against any Russian?  Disappointed by your logic, John.

I'm actually thinking more of the use of polonium to kill Litvinyenko.

My time working alongside the brother of Jeremy Bamber and Roberto Calveys lawyer -now there's a right character,  a guy who was also the lawyer for several dodgy geezers in the chemical and assorted other ways to kill people efficiently business, taught me most of what I need to know in making value judgements on these scum.

And don't forget his predecessor sent ME a couple of Bulgarians "interested" in ricin. Who we naturally gave the pointers to the literature, then informed the appropriate authorities .....


The antics in Salisbury are overlookable in comparison. They are amateur and do not sit well with the other deeds I know Putin has done Like the chemical weapons attack on the chechen separatist theatregoer hijackers....

I am satisfied the work was the work of Russians, but I suspect it was a bunch of rank amateurs hired to hit someone for their dodgy business dealings. The whole business just reeked of amateur night. Mind you I bet the hit men couldn't be deployed without Putin giving the nod.

[Sampanviking]

Unvarnished and Unedited conversation with refugees from Mariupol
You will need to have subtitles on
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nhLB5Wp1lGs

[Scott777]

Putin sent men to London to use a toxic radioactive chemical to poison a bloke he did not like, and we did f**k all

At present the Ukranian bloke has no apparent record of doing the same.

It is reasonable to assume there is much more to the Skripal case than that.  Novichock which poisoned him, and just happened to be a few miles from the only place in the UK which kept Novichock.
We may not have a record of the "Ukranian bloke" using, or planning, to use chemical weapons, but do we have a record that the Russians poisoned Skripal?

This one act is, in my view, more than enough to warrant being singularly nasty to anyone in this country with a russian accent and a new found interest in bitcoin.

And on the basis of blaming the Russians on something, absent of 'records', you're happy to act with extreme prejudice against any Russian?  Disappointed by your logic, John.

[Sampanviking]

Footage of Denis Pushilin; President of the Donetsk Peoples Republic in Mariupol overseeing aid distribution to the newly liberated citizens.

https://twitter.com/DonbassMedia/status/1507058882799095813?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1507063114470150155%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es3_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.sinodefenceforum.com%2Ft%2Fukrainian-war-developments.8899%2Fpage-1544

[Sampanviking]

There is a lot of noise on the net tonight saying the Mariupol has been taken. A lot of footage of dead Ukrainian/Azov troops and claims being made that the DPR flag is now flying at both the Council and Administration buildings.

Waiting to see if this becomes official during the evening...

This is on top of more villages being taken in the North of Donetsk.

Sorry to hear about the loss of the ship in Berydansk. The Ukrainians are claiming it, but I have no idea what they used. All the footage I have seen starts with a smallish fire, followed by large explosions as ammunition cooks off. I really don't know if a small missile could do the initial damage, and it was too small for a large missile. Plus where could a small missile have been fired from? unless a special forces unit had got well inside the lines??
I rather suspect that this started with mishandled or badly stored ammunition, but ready to accept that could be wrong.

[Sheepy]

There has only been one person threaten nuclear. That's the only suicide note ,of note up to now.

Nope you neoliberal types have definitely sent him one.

World War Three fears as Russia warns of 'all-out nuclear war' if West defends Ukraine (msn.com)

[Sheepy]

There has only been one person threaten nuclear. That's the only suicide note ,of note up to now.

If you say so, but the EU leaders and NATO seems a bit bothered by Boris and his latest plans. Which we might let him back in the fold if he keeps up the good work.