What is really happening in the Ukraine Conflict?

[Sampanviking]

Forgetting the bias for a second, the article was talking about  to some extent invading Poland and pushing forward. The Russians aren't reliant on rail unless you think they used it in Syria. Keiv is also a river trip from Belarus. If they needed to bomb the rail network it would be bombed by now. That is just common sense. But sure, make out the second most powerful army on the planet can't function without trains.

I think I would defer to the Dawg on this one Boycey. The Russians most certainly do make extensive use of rail on their own turf and when they deploy in Exercise to former Soviet Union countries. There is always loads of footage at these excises of Russian Armour rolling on and off of flat beds on long trains.
Syria is not a really a comparison, principally because there were hardly any Russian ground forces in the country and none (to my knowledge) were active on the Front lines.
The Russians not bombing the rail network as they wish to use it themselves later is highly likely and totally plausible. I will just repeat that they have not bombed the major road bridges over the Dneiper either, which could be for a number of reasons, and none of them mutually exclusive.

[DeppityDawg]

Forgetting the bias for a second, the article was talking about  to some extent invading Poland and pushing forward. The Russians aren't reliant on rail unless you think they used it in Syria. Keiv is also a river trip from Belarus. If they needed to bomb the rail network it would be bombed by now. That is just common sense. But sure, make out the second most powerful army on the planet can't function without trains.

I'm not making out anything. Like I said, the study was compiled by people with a lot more knowledge and experience than I suspect you could ever hold a candle to. As evidenced by you comparing the conflict in Syria with what is happening in Ukraine. But again, you don't have to believe their study or their years of experience. You can believe what you like. But please, don't accuse me of "making out". The evidence is there in great detail if you want to look at it. I doubt that will happen though.

[B0ycey]

Logistics it is called.

Logistics takes many forms Sheepy. We are being specific here on rail.

[Sheepy]

Forgetting the bias for a second, the article was talking about  to some extent invading Poland and pushing forward. The Russians aren't reliant on rail unless you think they used it in Syria. Keiv is also a river trip from Belarus. If they needed to bomb the rail network it would be bombed by now. That is just common sense. But sure, make out the second most powerful army on the planet can't function without trains.

Logistics it is called. 

[B0ycey]

My post contains a link to a 416 page military study that says it does, produced by some extremely experienced authors, and the bibliography alone is longer than this entire thread. It also details the WHOLE structure of the Russian military right down to its TO&Es. Still, its entirely up to you what you believe.

Forgetting the bias for a second, the article was talking about  to some extent invading Poland and pushing forward. The Russians aren't reliant on rail unless you think they used it in Syria. Keiv is also a river trip from Belarus. If they needed to bomb the rail network it would be bombed by now. That is just common sense. But sure, make out the second most powerful army on the planet can't function without trains.

[Sampanviking]

Regarding the counter offensive in Kiev this footage of a sizable Ukrainian surrender is suddenly all over the place
https://twitter.com/Levi_godman/status/1507641907635232768?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1507641907635232768%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.sinodefenceforum.com%2Ft%2Fukrainian-war-developments.8899%2Fpage-1578

Looking at them, they look like Volunteers and not regulars. If this is the case and its these forces which have been used for the Counteroffensive, it does not bode well for them!

[Sampanviking]

Listening to the Kool Aid on the Today Program this morning, I think the Dawg has every right to be skeptical.

I can only give you my best take on where the situation is today, as the Russians talk of ending Phase 1 and starting Phase 2
I have uploaded a map from yesterday which is I think as accurate as any can be under the circumstances.
What it does not show is the grey contested area that probably extends in a band of up to Fifty miles From the Hard Russian to the Hard Ukrainian controlled areas.

SO what does Phase 1 ending look like?
It means no more Ukrainian navy, that was all sunk on day one
Very little Air Force and Air Defenses left, nearly all of which are located in the West of the Country where there is no fighting.
In the East and most of the Center, the Russians seem to have near total Air Supremacy.

In the last Month, the Ukraine has lost control of at least 25% and maybe up to 33% of its territory, this in a form of a long front that stretches from the Belarus border in the North to the City of Nikolev on the Black Sea Coast. Much of the Interior parts of Eastern and Central Ukraine are a kill zone for any any Ukrainian forces that tries to move. Most of the Ukrainian army is bottled up in the towns and cities, largely cut off and isolated from each other.

Russia has so far, secured the Energy and Water Security of the Crimea, it has also largely consolidated its control of the Azov Coastline turning the Sea into a Russian Lake.
The last link in the land bridge along the Azov coastline is Mariupol, which is really in the final mopping up stages of the fight to take the city. Such Ukrainian forces that remain seem bottled up in a few districts along the water front (with a possible separate group bottled up in a Northern Suburb.

I have never believed that Kiev was a key target for the Russians and still don't. If they had meant to storm the city, they would have started the necessary mass Ariel and Artillery bombardments to soften up the defenses and flatten large swathes of the city. I would also expect to see the attacks on Civilian Infrastructure and Government buildings; including attempted decapitation strikes, as part of the process, this simply has not happened.

I have always seen the location of Kiev as more significant to the Russians than the city itself. I still hold the forces there are part of an intended pincer movement to create the mother of all Encirclement, far west of the Dnieper to trap pretty much the entire Ukrainian army in a colossal cauldron for destruction.
It is no surprise that the claimed Ukrainian counter attacks are at these Northern and Southern Western ends of the Russian advance and the areas where this encirclement movement would be developed from. It is I think significant that there are no counteroffensives within the central and Eastern zones themselves.

Phase 2 of the Russian plan is I think exactly what it says on the tin. With Mariupol effectively in the bag, they can turn their attention to the Fifty or Sixty Thousand strong Ukrainian forces that is sitting in the North of Donetsk, already multiple encirclements of all sizes are starting to appear. There is an important one isolating a large Ukrainian garrison at the most Eastern point at Severodonetsk, which is about the only bit of Lughansk still under Ukrainian control and the big one developing from Issum and possibly from the direction of Kharkov itself towards Vablika in the south.
Retaking the Donbas has always been a key Russian objective, clearly stated and so its restatement now should not be a surprise.

I am have no doubt that they want to spook this Ukrainian force into running back to the river.

Once this battle is finished, then they can move to Phase 3, 4 and beyond.....

[DeppityDawg]

I'm not saying the Russian logistics is better than the Yanks, but that it doesn't rely on rail. Remember, they were part of Syrian civil war. Do you think they sent everything by rail? If the network remains, it is because there is not strategic reason to destroy it. In war it is better to act smarter than harder. If you can focus your attacks on the things that matter more, and spare the things that have no material gain, you would do that. This war has an objective. Which means there is a goal. This isn't a Western 21st century war where there was no objective and as such no end. The objective is denazification. What is bombing rail going to do to stop that?

My post contains a link to a 416 page military study that says it does, produced by some extremely experienced authors, and the bibliography alone is longer than this entire thread. It also details the WHOLE structure of the Russian military right down to its TO&Es. Still, its entirely up to you what you believe.

[Sheepy]

Oops, the truth slips out, and once again, it's the US doing all the nasty stuff with pathogens, while they accuse Putin of planning a chemical attack.

"The emails show Hunter helped secure millions of dollars of funding for Metabiota, a Department of Defense contractor specializing in research on pandemic-causing diseases."

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10652127/Hunter-Biden-helped-secure-millions-funding-military-biotech-research-program-Ukraine.html

Don't forget, it was the Daily Mail who first said the lurgy came from a lab in Wuhan, and everyone denied it.

Of course, everyone denied it, it wasn't them using bio weapons to control the whole world and bring about the great reset. It was bats, anyway even worse we ignored the usual conspiracy theorists who are so shot away they cause more confusion than ever and just used the facts against them, which just means they will come from another angle.  

[B0ycey]

Sorry Boycey. I don't believe any of that. As for Russian logistics, it relied on rail during the 20th century, and it largely still does in the 21st

Feeding the Bear: A Closer Look at Russian Army Logistics and the Fait Accompli - War on the Rocks

There are other sources including RUSI articles that explain the difference between Western and Russian doctrines, including the differences in the size of their respective logistics support (somewhat irritatingly called "sustainment" by the SPAMS). But this article is dated November last year - a lot of what is written in it (especially regarding the distances covered) is proving to be an uncannily accurate description of what is being reported in the media right now. Unless, of course, we believe the "West" has "scripted" the whole thing

Tbf, everyones view of this war is skewed in one direction or another. I believe this conflict still has some distance to run despite what is being said today, but I'm skeptical of most claims as to who is doing what unless they are supported by solid evidence.

I'm not saying the Russian logistics is better than the Yanks, but that it doesn't rely on rail. Remember, they were part of Syrian civil war. Do you think they sent everything by rail? If the network remains, it is because there is not strategic reason to destroy it. In war it is better to act smarter than harder. If you can focus your attacks on the things that matter more, and spare the things that have no material gain, you would do that. This war has an objective. Which means there is a goal. This isn't a Western 21st century war where there was no objective and as such no end. The objective is denazification. What is bombing rail going to do to stop that? 

[DeppityDawg]

The Soviets might have relied on rail during the Russian revolution against the White Army, they don't rely on it now. If they haven't targeted it, it is because it isn't needed to be targeted. Sometimes people really should just listen to what they say. This war is about demilitarsation and denazification of Ukraine. Whether the plan initially was to take Keiv and place in a dummy government we will never know. But what we do know is the objective of this war. Russia aren't targeting civilians or infrastructure. They do however target military sites. The reason the mall and the hospital got bombed, wasn't to attack Ukrainians but because those sites were being used to house military personnel and equipment. So there isn't a need to target and destroy Ukraine completely because ultimately Russia will most likely want to be part of the rebuilding of Ukraine. And from what they said yesterday, they must think that Ukraine has had its offensive capacity eliminated which was their first objective. The next objective is now denazification. Melitopol isn't getting targeted because of its strategic importance but because it is home to the Avov Battalion whom are Neo-Nazis. Russia have focused most of their effort East because Eastern Ukraine is more pro Russian. There is logic in why Donatsk and Luhansk should be independent. I was reading yesterday that Ukraine seem stubborn not declaring Russian as an official language of Ukraine which doesn't make sense given these areas are Russian speaking. These stall talks which means the war continues. That isn't good for anyone, most certainly those stuck in Malitopol. I hope we can see another corridor offered to get those out but given the last one Ukraine declined the offer, it maybe irrelevant anyway. I expect a retreat from Kiev in the coming days and more deployment in Donbass. My guess the second phase of this war will be the peacekeeping mission. Pushing Ukraine out of Luhansk and Donatsk and protecting these districts. We can also expect more offensive against the Avov Battalion. The rest of Ukraine will likely be spared like the railways given that isn't part of the objective of this war. Russia aren't America. They aren't in Ukraine for nation building but peacekeeping. And given Armenia is asking for more Russian troops, it maybe some that are currently stationed and sitting in Keiv will be deployed there.

Sorry Boycey. I don't believe any of that. As for Russian logistics, it relied on rail during the 20th century, and it largely still does in the 21st

Feeding the Bear: A Closer Look at Russian Army Logistics and the Fait Accompli - War on the Rocks

Russian army logistics forces are not designed for a large-scale ground offensive far from their railroads. Inside maneuver units, Russian sustainment units are a size lower than their Western counterparts. Only brigades have an equivalent logistics capability, but it's not an exact comparison. Russian formations have only three-quarters the number of combat vehicles as their U.S. counterparts but almost three times as much artillery. On paper (not all brigades have a full number of battalions), Russian brigades have two artillery battalions, a rocket battalion, and two air defense battalions per brigade as opposed to one artillery battalion and an attached air defense company per U.S. brigade. As a result of extra artillery and air defense battalions, the Russian logistics requirements are much larger than their U.S. counterparts.

There are other sources including RUSI articles that explain the difference between Western and Russian doctrines, including the differences in the size of their respective logistics support (somewhat irritatingly called "sustainment" by the SPAMS). But this article is dated November last year - a lot of what is written in it (especially regarding the distances covered) is proving to be an uncannily accurate description of what is being reported in the media right now. Unless, of course, we believe the "West" has "scripted" the whole thing

Tbf, everyones view of this war is skewed in one direction or another. I believe this conflict still has some distance to run despite what is being said today, but I'm skeptical of most claims as to who is doing what unless they are supported by solid evidence.

[B0ycey]

Well you just carry in believing that.

Meanwhile we have the facts in front of us that the Russians themselves say the second please of THEIR war is the invasion of Eastern Ukraine to add to the collection of bits already under the hammer and sickle.

Where are these facts John? Russia have already declared Donatsk and Luhansk independent, why would they now say the second phrase is to add them to Russia?

The truth is Russias narrative has never changed. This is a peacekeeping mission to denazify Ukraine and demilitarise it.  You don't hear that much in the UK press, but it is all over the Russian press. At some point people are just going to have to accept that maybe they aim to do exactly what they say. Pretty much all Ukraines air force is destroyed. Their airports have had their runways destroyed and their ports have been bombed non stop. There is nothing to gain in bombing these further. So the first part of their mission is complete. Their army surrounding Keiv has been defecto been redundant the past few weeks, so unless they are going into Keiv they would be better off deploying somewhere else. I doubt the mission was ever about nation building so you can expect Keiv to be spared now to some extent. I expect that to happen in the next couple of weeks if not days. Ukraine will claim victory I guess, but they aren't disappearing but merely moving East given that is where Russia is liberating. It might make peace talks a little bit easier if Russia can make out this is a concession and that would be good for all. But until Russia are satisfied that Ukraine has been denazified either via talks or militarily, the fighting will continue East.

[Scott777]

Oops, the truth slips out, and once again, it's the US doing all the nasty stuff with pathogens, while they accuse Putin of planning a chemical attack.

"The emails show Hunter helped secure millions of dollars of funding for Metabiota, a Department of Defense contractor specializing in research on pandemic-causing diseases."

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10652127/Hunter-Biden-helped-secure-millions-funding-military-biotech-research-program-Ukraine.html

Don't forget, it was the Daily Mail who first said the lurgy came from a lab in Wuhan, and everyone denied it.

[johnofgwent]

The Soviets might have relied on rail during the Russian revolution against the White Army, they don't rely on it now. If they haven't targeted it, it is because it isn't needed to be targeted. Sometimes people really should just listen to what they say. This war is about demilitarsation and denazification of Ukraine. Whether the plan initially was to take Keiv and place in a dummy government we will never know. But what we do know is the objective of this war. Russia aren't targeting civilians or infrastructure. They do however target military sites. The reason the mall and the hospital got bombed, wasn't to attack Ukrainians but because those sites were being used to house military personnel and equipment. So there isn't a need to target and destroy Ukraine completely because ultimately Russia will most likely want to be part of the rebuilding of Ukraine. And from what they said yesterday, they must think that Ukraine has had its offensive capacity eliminated which was their first objective. The next objective is now denazification. Melitopol isn't getting targeted because of its strategic importance but because it is home to the Avov Battalion whom are Neo-Nazis. Russia have focused most of their effort East because Eastern Ukraine is more pro Russian. There is logic in why Donatsk and Luhansk should be independent. I was reading yesterday that Ukraine seem stubborn not declaring Russian as an official language of Ukraine which doesn't make sense given these areas are Russian speaking. These stall talks which means the war continues. That isn't good for anyone, most certainly those stuck in Malitopol. I hope we can see another corridor offered to get those out but given the last one Ukraine declined the offer, it maybe irrelevant anyway. I expect a retreat from Kiev in the coming days and more deployment in Donbass. My guess the second phase of this war will be the peacekeeping mission. Pushing Ukraine out of Luhansk and Donatsk and protecting these districts. We can also expect more offensive against the Avov Battalion. The rest of Ukraine will likely be spared like the railways given that isn't part of the objective of this war. Russia aren't America. They aren't in Ukraine for nation building but peacekeeping. And given Armenia is asking for more Russian troops, it maybe some that are currently stationed and sitting in Keiv will be deployed there.

Well you just carry in believing that.

Meanwhile we have the facts in front of us that the Russians themselves say the second please of THEIR war is the invasion of Eastern Ukraine to add to the collection of bits already under the hammer and sickle.

[johnofgwent]

Radio 4 was making a big play this morning about the role of the Ukrainian railway network to help move refugees from the East and Center of Ukraine to the Western borders and EU countries.
The item however excluded one key factor from its report, the fact that these railways are only still moving and functioning, because the network, bridges, stations, marshaling yards and indeed power stations, have not been target by Russian Aviation or Missiles. Indeed no critical infrastructure, including the road and rail bridges over the Dnieper have been targeted or hit.

Given the ease with which Russian precision missiles have attacked military targets in all locations in the Ukraine, this is clearly the result of deliberate policy and not through lack of capability.
These targets would have been among the first things to be hit, when the US started any of its Invasions and so the lack of such attacks by the Russians tells it own story and is an easy level of escalation, should the Russian forces suddenly feel under uncomfortable pressure.

Why would a Russian army keen to invade with overwhelming force blow up the infrastructure it needs to remain in place to assist its retaking of Poland into the iron curtain ?