Good article on how an airliner can be accidently shot down

[BeElBeeBub]

I said "I don't know".

Oh, yeah, sorry, missed that bit.



Which do you think is more likely, on balance?



Well thought out for unselfish reasons



Or



Knee jerk, trading geopolitical stability for internal domestic politics?

[Barry]

I notice you didn't answer the last bit.

I said "I don't know".

[BeElBeeBub]

You don't know any of this. Someone filmed the attack, which seems they knew it was going to happen.

all the footage of launches etc I've seen have been from CCTV/security cameras, a dash cam and possibly one on a mobile from a moving car (might have also been a dash cam).



The latter one only caught one when it is believed that two missiles were launched.  It's very plausible that someone would start recording after the first launch.

I didn't see it coming, did you?

did I see a Ukrainian airliner being shit down by Iranian air defense missiles? No of course not



Was I surprised that a mistake was made after days of escalating tension with the US prez openly talking if striking Iranian targets after killing an Iranian official on foreign soil?



Not especially.  



The more guns and missiles you put near civil air traffic and the higher the alert status they are in the greater the chance of a cock up.



Your chances of being shot down over (say) bristol airport are near zero because there is no air defense there, because there is no perceived need.  If the area was bristling with active Rapier missiles units, the chances of being shot down increase. If they are expecting imminent attack by russian stealth aircraft and Putin has been taking about attacking the UK, I'd be terrified of flying into any UK airport

Absolutely. Trump is responsible for the people crushed in the funeral of Soleimani, too.  :roll:

come on, that's an obvious straw man - where have I said he was responsible for that?



Though, if QS hadn't been killed nobody would have died at his funeral would they?......

I don't know. He was an enemy of the USA and Israel, of course.

He was a terrible man. The was responsible for man, many deaths and instability around the ME.



The world is a far better place with him dead.



It may not be a safer place though.



I notice you didn't answer the last bit.



Why do you think DT decided to kill him now?  It's not like they had trouble tracking him. He posted bloody selfies wherever he went.

[Barry]

I don't believe they have flight path info, just bearing, elevation range info.



So you have to turn cross ref that with where you expect an airliner might be and 5hrn decide if that glitchy contact that just appeared/disappeared/doesn't quite seem right is an airliner or a F22 about to launch a couple of anti radiation missiles that are specifically seeking radar sources exactly like the one sitting about 6ft away from you.

Makes sense.

US tactics typically tries to eliminate energy air defense as the first priority.  This is achieved using stealth and electronic warfare systems so the attacking planes either don't appear or only appear as weak momentary returns on the display.

Yes air supriority is essential early in any war. (But you need a proof reader   )

The operators would have been stressed, probably tired, (it was early morning - coincidentally the prime time for an attack for this reason) and probably undertrained.

You don't know any of this. Someone filmed the attack, which seems they knew it was going to happen.

I'm not defending Iran, they were responsible for this.  I'm pointing out that this was not an isolated unforeseeable event.

I didn't see it coming, did you?

It was made much more likely by leaders (on both sides) practising brinkmanship.

Absolutely. Trump is responsible for the people crushed in the funeral of Soleimani, too.  :roll:

Do you think that Trump ordered the QS strike that escalated to this situation because of a considered operational need or because he needed something to distract from his impeachment woes?

I don't know. He was an enemy of the USA and Israel, of course.

[BeElBeeBub]

It's not rocket science though to realise that within a few minutes of Teheran airport an airliner just might be taking off.

All they needed to do was have FlightRadar 24 open on one of their phones.

I don't believe they have flight path info, just bearing, elevation range info.



So you have to turn cross ref that with where you expect an airliner might be and 5hrn decide if that glitchy contact that just appeared/disappeared/doesn't quite seem right is an airliner or a F22 about to launch a couple of anti radiation missiles that are specifically seeking radar sources exactly like the one sitting about 6ft away from you.



US tactics typically tries to eliminate energy air defense as the first priority.  This is achieved using stealth and electronic warfare systems so the attacking planes either don't appear or only appear as weak momentary returns on the display.



The operators would have been stressed, probably tired, (it was early morning - coincidentally the prime time for an attack for this reason) and probably undertrained.



I'm not defending Iran, they were responsible for this.  I'm pointing out that this was not an isolated unforeseeable event. It was made much more likely by leaders (on both sides) practising brinkmanship.



Do you think that Trump ordered the QS strike that escalated to this situation because of a considered operational need or because he needed something to distract from his impeachment woes?

[johnofgwent]

The key question now is whether the US uses this to push for even more action against Iran. It would be pretty hypocritical of them given their history of accidental airliner shoot downs, but the current adminstration is no stranger to hypocrisy. :shrg:

Which is why, hours after that admission, the BBC and others had a spokesman for the Potus stating categorically they had no interest in making such suggestions

[Barry]

Without being well tied into local Air traffic control there is no direct way of identifying an airliner

It's not rocket science though to realise that within a few minutes of Teheran airport an airliner just might be taking off.

All they needed to do was have FlightRadar 24 open on one of their phones.

[BeElBeeBub]

as an addendum to this thread, here is a youtube video showing the operation of the "Tor" missile system.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xP5mnkk41JE">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xP5mnkk41JE



note the screens and information the operators are shown.  Contacts are just dots with basic info on the screen, and this is the more modern version of the system, the older versions (which Iran may have) are probably not as "ergonomic"



Without being well tied into local Air traffic control there is no direct way of identifying an airliner

[BeElBeeBub]

Well Iran has finally admitted they did the deed.

The key question now is whether the US uses this to push for even more action against Iran. It would be pretty hypocritical of them given their history of accidental airliner shoot downs, but the current adminstration is no stranger to hypocrisy. :shrg:

[cromwell]

Well Iran has finally admitted they did the deed.

[BeElBeeBub]

A good, if rather long and technical article, about how mistakes can happen.



https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/31791/lets-talk-about-how-iran-could-have-shot-down-a-737-full-of-innocent-people">https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/3 ... ent-people">https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/31791/lets-talk-about-how-iran-could-have-shot-down-a-737-full-of-innocent-people



TLDR, politicians engaging in grandstanding and brinkmanship  increase the chances of mishap, with tragic consequences.