Seems like Russia is suffering in Ukraine like the US did in Afghanistan

[Sheepy]

Bit early for pantomime season and considering that I debunked that cheap accusation just a few posts earlier does nothing to enhance your credibility.

I see that the media is full of the great Ukrainian counter offensive in Kherson.
I bet this follows the patterns of all the rest.
Ukrainian infantry surge forward with insufficient armour, artillery or air support.
Russian front lines fall back to carefully prepared defences
Ukrainian infantry surge into the gap
Ukrainian infantry discover that they entered a equally carefully prepared Russian artillery kill zone
Russian artillery cuts Ukrainians to bits,
Ukrainians retreat chased by Russian attack helicopters and armour
Front lines returns to start point or Russians make a modest advance.

This time of course it may not precisely follow the same pattern exactly
1) The new Russian 3rd Army Corps (numbers claimed at 15k by West and up to 60k by Russia, settle for mid point at 40k) is widely presumed to be en route to the Kherson front.
This corps is equipped apparently with some of the best armour in the Russian inventory.
This means that the Russian counter counter attack could this time sweep all the way to Nikolyav
2) Up coming referendum in Kherson district to join the Russian Federation. The yes vote widely anticipated to win overwhelmingly. This means that once a full part of the Russian Federation, the restriction on deploying conscripts into the district will no longer apply. This mean a lot of contract professionals currently manning the rear, will be freed up for active front line participation.

So unless you generally do believe that Russia is shelling a Nuclear station that it controls and which is providing power to territory it also controls, I would not stat popping the celebratory champagne just yet.

Well, he seems well bogged down, fighting over the same few yards by your own admittance.

[Sampanviking]

And a month before that he was telling us that Russian plans to invade were all western lies,

There is a certain credibility gap here, as there always is if you look at the past pronouncements of propagandists.

Bit early for pantomime season and considering that I debunked that cheap accusation just a few posts earlier does nothing to enhance your credibility.

I see that the media is full of the great Ukrainian counter offensive in Kherson.
I bet this follows the patterns of all the rest.
Ukrainian infantry surge forward with insufficient armour, artillery or air support.
Russian front lines fall back to carefully prepared defences
Ukrainian infantry surge into the gap
Ukrainian infantry discover that they entered a equally carefully prepared Russian artillery kill zone
Russian artillery cuts Ukrainians to bits,
Ukrainians retreat chased by Russian attack helicopters and armour
Front lines returns to start point or Russians make a modest advance.

This time of course it may not precisely follow the same pattern exactly
1) The new Russian 3rd Army Corps (numbers claimed at 15k by West and up to 60k by Russia, settle for mid point at 40k) is widely presumed to be en route to the Kherson front.
This corps is equipped apparently with some of the best armour in the Russian inventory.
This means that the Russian counter counter attack could this time sweep all the way to Nikolyav
2) Up coming referendum in Kherson district to join the Russian Federation. The yes vote widely anticipated to win overwhelmingly. This means that once a full part of the Russian Federation, the restriction on deploying conscripts into the district will no longer apply. This mean a lot of contract professionals currently manning the rear, will be freed up for active front line participation.

So unless you generally do believe that Russia is shelling a Nuclear station that it controls and which is providing power to territory it also controls, I would not stat popping the celebratory champagne just yet.

[patman post]

This is total ballwarks Pat, sorry but it is, as is pretty much the whole sorry spectrum of propaganda being trotted out by the west.
Russian losses are nothing like the tens of thousands and in case you missed it, they have just started a massive offensive on the entire Donbass front and are advancing in many places.

The Ukrainian side are probably hitting 100,000 dead and many more injured. They have been put into untenable positions and subjected to endless mass artillery bombardment for days and weeks on end. Many front line units have lost over 70% of their manpower.
Most of the original professional army in the Donbass is already destroyed, the Ukrainians are having to fill the gap with Territorials who have barely rudimentary basic training and who are very poorly armed.

The Ukrainians have precious little Armour, Fuel or Ammunition.

Other fronts where Ukrainian offensives have been much touted and ground pretty much to a halt as the Brigades ostensibly there to conduct them, are having multiple Battalions transferred to the Donbass to fill the ever growing gaps in the line.

The much vaunted Western wonder weapons have proved all to often to be anything but the sort, often proving unreliable, having difficulty to keep supplied and maintained and being systematically hunted and destroyed. The most effective weapon they have are trenches, mainly highly sophisticated and built up over the last eight years on the Donbass contact line, but even these are going down as they are blasted apart.

The real truth is the Ukrainian strategy has been a grade A cluster f**k and by the end of August they will have precious little of any kind of army left.

Why isn't anyone telling the Ukrainians these things?

It seems cruel to let them go on labouring under the illusion that they have an army and their efforts are being successful...

[srb7677]

To be fair Sampan you were telling us back in march it was all over bar the shouting.

And a month before that he was telling us that Russian plans to invade were all western lies,

There is a certain credibility gap here, as there always is if you look at the past pronouncements of propagandists.

[Sheepy]

We must not fail to comprehend its grave implications we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence...The potential for the disastrous rise of misplaced power exists and will persist." Eisenhower cautioned that the federal government's collaboration with an alliance of military and industrial leaders, though necessary, was vulnerable to abuse of power. Ike then counseled American citizens to be vigilant in monitoring the military-industrial complex.

[johnofgwent]

Mr Phillips is a very good reporter, not afraid to go to the front lines and tell truth to power. He has been doing it in Ukraine since this all started in 2014.
Now you see how power in the UK reacts to truth.
It just illustrates to me that much of our so called Freedom and Democracy is simply a pose to hide a sham.

Mr Phillips is having done to him what Diane Abbott would love to have been able to do to me.

The left are always delighted to destroy the livelihood of those they dislike.

This hasn't been a free country since about 1865. I'm surprised it's taken you this long to realise that

[Sampanviking]

I know this is a political backwater,but given this report you may have to be more circumspect in your support for Putin Sampan

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-11065067/PETER-HITCHENS-Freedom-means-freedom-nasty-people.html

Well no you shouldn't be,despite the fact I disagree with you on so many levels you are entitled to your opinion this is supposed to be a democracy....not Russia.

Mr Phillips is a very good reporter, not afraid to go to the front lines and tell truth to power. He has been doing it in Ukraine since this all started in 2014.
Now you see how power in the UK reacts to truth.
It just illustrates to me that much of our so called Freedom and Democracy is simply a pose to hide a sham.

[cromwell]

I know this is a political backwater,but given this report you may have to be more circumspect in your support for Putin Sampan

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-11065067/PETER-HITCHENS-Freedom-means-freedom-nasty-people.html

Well no you shouldn't be,despite the fact I disagree with you on so many levels you are entitled to your opinion this is supposed to be a democracy....not Russia.

[Sampanviking]

You have no idea what the losses are in this war, so don't attempt to bring what you think is the truth.

If half what you believe about the war was true, Zelensky would be storming Moscow by now.

A lot of people have spent a lot of time going through the real OSINT to get a sense of genuine Russian losses, they are remarkably consistent within a narrow band. Even the US DOD admits that the Russian Forces have maintained over 90% of their combat capability on aggregate.

[Nick]

This is total ballwarks Pat, sorry but it is, as is pretty much the whole sorry spectrum of propaganda being trotted out by the west.
Russian losses are nothing like the tens of thousands and in case you missed it, they have just started a massive offensive on the entire Donbass front and are advancing in many places.

The Ukrainian side are probably hitting 100,000 dead and many more injured. They have been put into untenable positions and subjected to endless mass artillery bombardment for days and weeks on end. Many front line units have lost over 70% of their manpower.
Most of the original professional army in the Donbass is already destroyed, the Ukrainians are having to fill the gap with Territorials who have barely rudimentary basic training and who are very poorly armed.

The Ukrainians have precious little Armour, Fuel or Ammunition.

Other fronts where Ukrainian offensives have been much touted and ground pretty much to a halt as the Brigades ostensibly there to conduct them, are having multiple Battalions transferred to the Donbass to fill the ever growing gaps in the line.

The much vaunted Western wonder weapons have proved all to often to be anything but the sort, often proving unreliable, having difficulty to keep supplied and maintained and being systematically hunted and destroyed. The most effective weapon they have are trenches, mainly highly sophisticated and built up over the last eight years on the Donbass contact line, but even these are going down as they are blasted apart.

The real truth is the Ukrainian strategy has been a grade A cluster f**k and by the end of August they will have precious little of any kind of army left.

You have no idea what the losses are in this war, so don't attempt to bring what you think is the truth.

[Barry]

The West's sanction regime has been as big a disaster as the Ukrainians military situation. The rouble has not been turned to rubble but is trading at heights not seen since 2014. Attempts to isolate it have failed utterly and the cost of living impact of the sanctions is hurting the West far more than its hurting Russia. The US has gone into recession, even if it wont admit it, and much of Europe will soon follow as well. What's really scary is that its still a very hot mid summer, so watch the shit hit the fan as we move into Autumn. There is real anger building against the establishment for the damage and ruin they are wrecking against ordinary citizens in the pursuit of a lunatic ideologically driven Geo-strategic fantasy.

This is true. Now I do believe that Russia should never have taken this action, but I do wonder why we now have massive increases in the prices of our energy, when our gas mostly does not come from Russia. (96%)
So why have our gas prices increased in line with European prices?
This is part of the self harming.
I could understand this if we were defending a NATO country, but although Ukraine is not NATO, the West are throwing arms at it, as if it is.
I doubt they even have the means to pay for the arms. We will give them away, as if Ukraine is in NATO.
I've seen it so many times before, we arm regimes and we arm groups to fight our proxy wars, then at a future time they turn against us and it all becomes a futile waste of money.
Whether we will ever have friendly relations with Russia in future is probably unlikely, I can't see it happening whilst Putin still walks among us.

[Sampanviking]

To be fair Sampan you were telling us back in march it was all over bar the shouting.

In many ways that was and still is the case. Its just that the shouting continues.

I said from the start, that the Ukrainians should have pulled back to the West Bank of the Dniper and made the defenses there. Instead by deciding to fight where they stood they signed there own death warrant and ensured not only the loss of territory, but the loss of the army as well.

On top of that, because of lunatic escalation by the West, what was originally intended as a limited military operation has needed to become a war of total conquest, as any residual part of the Ukraine will be weaponised once more for the purpose of restarting the war at a later date.

Russia began this conflict with a force of no more than 200,000 which is incredibly small for an operation of this scale. The Ukraine is on about its fifth mobilisation and its citizens are being conscripted into the army, swelling its numbers many times over from its starting count. Russia is still using the same force size of about 200,000. It has the militia's of the LNR and DNR plus some volunteers to boost the infantry numbers and in addition they are introducing the first of the Ukrainian volunteer brigades for the same purpose.
All together though its still only no more than about 300,000.

The big joke in Russian Social media is that the Ukrainian operation was only meant to demilitarise the Ukrainians, but it seems to be demilitarising all of NATO instead. Its far off the mark. NATO nations, especially the European ones, have pretty much expended their entire strategic reserve of military equipment. I bet the Russians have more NLAW's in their possession than the British Army now has itself. This pattern is being repeated across the board.
Russia by contrast has barely scratched its arsenal options and seems content to simply run down its massive stocks of cold war era munitions and armour and leave the modern ones virtually untouched.

The Ukraine is on the brink of total collapse and talk about a million man army is just that, talk.
The West's sanction regime has been as big a disaster as the Ukrainians military situation. The rouble has not been turned to rubble but is trading at heights not seen since 2014. Attempts to isolate it have failed utterly and the cost of living impact of the sanctions is hurting the West far more than its hurting Russia. The US has gone into recession, even if it wont admit it, and much of Europe will soon follow as well. Whats really scary is that its still a very hot mid summer, so watch the shit hit the fan as we move into Autumn. There is real anger building against the establishment for the damage and ruin they are wrecking against ordinary citizens in the pursuit of a lunatic ideologically driven Geo-strategic fantasy.

It really is game over and a decent regime in Kiev would recognise this and start working to stop the slaughter of its own citizens rather that try to whip up the freenzy at home and abroad to continue and accelerate it.

[cromwell]

This is total ballwarks Pat, sorry but it is, as is pretty much the whole sorry spectrum of propaganda being trotted out by the west.
Russian losses are nothing like the tens of thousands and in case you missed it, they have just started a massive offensive on the entire Donbass front and are advancing in many places.

The Ukrainian side are probably hitting 100,000 dead and many more injured. They have been put into untenable positions and subjected to endless mass artillery bombardment for days and weeks on end. Many front line units have lost over 70% of their manpower.
Most of the original professional army in the Donbass is already destroyed, the Ukrainians are having to fill the gap with Territorials who have barely rudimentary basic training and who are very poorly armed.

The Ukrainians have precious little Armour, Fuel or Ammunition.

Other fronts where Ukrainian offensives have been much touted and ground pretty much to a halt as the Brigades ostensibly there to conduct them, are having multiple Battalions transferred to the Donbass to fill the ever growing gaps in the line.

The much vaunted Western wonder weapons have proved all to often to be anything but the sort, often proving unreliable, having difficulty to keep supplied and maintained and being systematically hunted and destroyed. The most effective weapon they have are trenches, mainly highly sophisticated and built up over the last eight years on the Donbass contact line, but even these are going down as they are blasted apart.

The real truth is the Ukrainian strategy has been a grade A cluster f**k and by the end of August they will have precious little of any kind of army left.

To be fair Sampan you were telling us back in march it was all over bar the shouting.

[Sampanviking]

And the USSR too.

Unlike Chechnya, Afghanistan was under scrutiny — so withdrawal was the Soviet's only course.

Now Russia — less well equipped than the USA or USSR — is suffering greatly in Ukraine with troop losses in the tens of thousands.

Ukraine too, but its superior hardware is being supplied from the West's arsenal, which is infinitely greater than Russia's, even if China chips in.

Currently, the Russians are having to hunker down in Ukraine — even drawing back to consolidate. 

When will madman Putin begin to realise he's a busted flush. At best, he's got five or 10 more years in charge. If there's any justice, his reign would soon be terminated "with extreme prejudice"...

This is total ballwarks Pat, sorry but it is, as is pretty much the whole sorry spectrum of propaganda being trotted out by the west.
Russian losses are nothing like the tens of thousands and in case you missed it, they have just started a massive offensive on the entire Donbass front and are advancing in many places.

The Ukrainian side are probably hitting 100,000 dead and many more injured. They have been put into untenable positions and subjected to endless mass artillery bombardment for days and weeks on end. Many front line units have lost over 70% of their manpower.
Most of the original professional army in the Donbass is already destroyed, the Ukrainians are having to fill the gap with Territorials who have barely rudimentary basic training and who are very poorly armed.

The Ukrainians have precious little Armour, Fuel or Ammunition.

Other fronts where Ukrainian offensives have been much touted and ground pretty much to a halt as the Brigades ostensibly there to conduct them, are having multiple Battalions transferred to the Donbass to fill the ever growing gaps in the line.

The much vaunted Western wonder weapons have proved all to often to be anything but the sort, often proving unreliable, having difficulty to keep supplied and maintained and being systematically hunted and destroyed. The most effective weapon they have are trenches, mainly highly sophisticated and built up over the last eight years on the Donbass contact line, but even these are going down as they are blasted apart.

The real truth is the Ukrainian strategy has been a grade A cluster F@@@ and by the end of August they will have precious little of any kind of army left.

[patman post]

And the USSR too.

Unlike Chechnya, Afghanistan was under scrutiny — so withdrawal was the Soviet's only course.

Now Russia — less well equipped than the USA or USSR — is suffering greatly in Ukraine with troop losses in the tens of thousands. 

Ukraine too, but its superior hardware is being supplied from the West's arsenal, which is infinitely greater than Russia's, even if China chips in.

Currently, the Russians are having to hunker down in Ukraine — even drawing back to consolidate. 

When will madman Putin begin to realise he's a busted flush. At best, he's got five or 10 more years in charge. If there's any justice, his reign would soon be terminated "with extreme prejudice"...