Latest Chinese export - coronavirus COVID-19

[johnofgwent]

2 thing about Coronavirus.



First, I suspect I have just recovered from it.  For 11 days I had a bad throat, feeling very swollen, and a slight fever for 2 days.  For me, this is extremely unusual, lasting so long, and without any sneezing or runny nose - the usual cold/flu symptoms.



Second, I must criticise the death-rate that is going around.  Some say 2%, some as high as 5%, but there is a serious flaw in this figure.  We know that most people have mild symptoms, and some no symptoms at all.  In those cases, they will not know if they have Coronavirus, and would not be added to the official statistic.  The people added are only those in serious condition.  This entirely changes the proportion of those who die from it, because the proportion of mild cases is much higher.

As to the figures, I cannot stress the wonderously useful nature of this site (this is the section for italy, look at china too) too greatly...



https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/">https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... try/italy/">https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/



This site takes the daily cases tested positive and splits them into 'active' and 'resolved'



If you look at the daily cases graphs for china, italy, spain and the uk you will see how they have come to the decision that the outbreak will peak here at a certain date, and blow over at a certain date.



If you look at the current figures, and i pick italy deliberately, you will see the numbers for those who currently have the illness, split into mild and serious, and those who are considered "resolved" split into those who lived and those who died.



Currently, in italy, 9 out of ten who have it have it "mildly" and only 1 out of ten have it seriously or with complications



We have no idea how many mildly affected will be in the serious category tomorrow, which is why you need to not take the figures as you see them, but THINK about what you see. But a hard fact is that out of a total of 17,660, 2,705 have been "resolved" and those are almost a 50/50 split between survived and died. So overall right now the death rate there is one in eight of those who are known to have tested positive for it. But this is still in flux



Now there is one monster caveat, and you will see it if you look at the American Centre for Disease Control figures for the 2018/19 bog standard flu season. And it is the issue you yourself raise. You believe you have symptoms of it - and speaking professionally I agree with you, but how long have you had those ?



Did you have any feeling of difficulty breathing, or do you get short of breath doing stuff like climbing a hilly street, more than you normally would ??  Is carrying a heavy briefcase more of an effort than irt usually is ??



You see, the CDC analysed the bog standard flu of 2018/19 - a shitty year for flu - and worked out nearly 16 million people sought some form of medical help, half a million needed to be hospitalised, and 35,000 died. But the CDC admit they have no idea how many peole GOT the flu, took to theeir beds with Lem Sip and scotch and toughed it out. They stuck their finger up their ass, pulled it out, counted the lumps, subtracted the number they thought of and came up with the pure guesstimate that 16 million people asking for medical assistance means 35 million in total got the flu. But they have NO idea if that is true. But it is THAT figure that people take to compare flu deaths as 0.1% (35,000 from 35 million, one in a thousand) which is a whole load less than the coronavirus death numbers.

[cromwell]

https://publichealthmatters.blog.gov.uk/2020/03/04/coronavirus-covid-19-5-things-you-can-do-to-protect-yourself-and-your-community/">https://publichealthmatters.blog.gov.uk ... community/">https://publichealthmatters.blog.gov.uk/2020/03/04/coronavirus-covid-19-5-things-you-can-do-to-protect-yourself-and-your-community/



Cromwell, in response to your "how do we know" questions about mild symptoms.

Ha and no response to my the Chinese not giving a toss about caring or public opinion,anyway old Tone told us Saddam had WMD's and that was a lie so excuse me if I don't believe everything govt tells us.

anyway here are you and Borchester in govt.

https://twitter.com/javierblas/status/1237492620588470272?s=12">//https://twitter.com/javierblas/status/1237492620588470272?s=12

[Scott777]

2 thing about Coronavirus.



First, I suspect I have just recovered from it.  For 11 days I had a bad throat, feeling very swollen, and a slight fever for 2 days.  For me, this is extremely unusual, lasting so long, and without any sneezing or runny nose - the usual cold/flu symptoms.



Second, I must criticise the death-rate that is going around.  Some say 2%, some as high as 5%, but there is a serious flaw in this figure.  We know that most people have mild symptoms, and some no symptoms at all.  In those cases, they will not know if they have Coronavirus, and would not be added to the official statistic.  The people added are only those in serious condition.  This entirely changes the proportion of those who die from it, because the proportion of mild cases is much higher.

[DeppityDawg]

There was dubious expert advice on Brexit and also sensible expert advice.  That depended on which side of the fence one stood.  Since nobody wants themselves or their loved ones to get coronavirus, it's logical to prevent, as far as is possible, transmission of the virus from one individual to another. Aren't we all on the same side of the fence on this one?

The idea that it should be allowed to rampage through society until 60% of the population has had it in the hope that this creates herd immunity to a virus that might disappear quite rapidly if we took proper precautions seems crazy.  Even if we eventually achieve herd immunity, how much help will that be against another new killer virus or antibiotic-resistant bacteria jumping the species barrier in a few years time?

Actually Quackers, you make some sense there, but my argument is trying to take a longer view, eg what happens to our economy, and the world's economy.(and the very real threats that may involve) based on what we do now, rather than "we must do A now because this is what country X are doing", because the facts are thin on the ground.



It's easy to say isolate whole communities but you can see from the news that many people have stayed at home today. Based on my experience of one or two characters who are absent from our place today, I reckon they are "self isolating" for 7 days already. I bet if I go into the Horse instead of my local tonight, I'll find one of them in there  ::

[papasmurf]

English local elections postponed for a year.



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51876269">https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51876269



A sensible decision.  But we've got to get to there first.  If the spread of the virus can be slowed or stopped by imposing restrictions now, we could be seeing cases of coronavirus in Britain tailing off by then.  



Or we could still be waiting for the magic 60% infection rate that some people in positions of responsibility seem to see as a goal.

I thought it was 80%.

[Hyperduck Quack Quack]

English local elections postponed for a year.



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51876269">https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51876269



A sensible decision.  But we've got to get to there first.  If the spread of the virus can be slowed or stopped by imposing restrictions now, we could be seeing cases of coronavirus in Britain tailing off by then.  



Or we could still be waiting for the magic 60% infection rate that some people in positions of responsibility seem to see as a goal.

[papasmurf]

You can check the number of cases of Covid-19 in you area here:-



https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/f94c3c90da5b4e9f9a0b19484dd4bb14">https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboar ... 484dd4bb14">https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/f94c3c90da5b4e9f9a0b19484dd4bb14

[Hyperduck Quack Quack]

Now I'm confused as feck...how is it Quack Quack was so enamoured by science and "expert" opinion about Brexit and related doomsday issues, yet now when it comes to Coronavirus, they are all a load of idiots?  ::

There was dubious expert advice on Brexit and also sensible expert advice.  That depended on which side of the fence one stood.  Since nobody wants themselves or their loved ones to get coronavirus, it's logical to prevent, as far as is possible, transmission of the virus from one individual to another. Aren't we all on the same side of the fence on this one?

The idea that it should be allowed to rampage through society until 60% of the population has had it in the hope that this creates herd immunity to a virus that might disappear quite rapidly if we took proper precautions seems crazy.  Even if we eventually achieve herd immunity, how much help will that be against another new killer virus or antibiotic-resistant bacteria jumping the species barrier in a few years time?

[DeppityDawg]

https://publichealthmatters.blog.gov.uk/2020/03/04/coronavirus-covid-19-5-things-you-can-do-to-protect-yourself-and-your-community/">https://publichealthmatters.blog.gov.uk ... community/">https://publichealthmatters.blog.gov.uk/2020/03/04/coronavirus-covid-19-5-things-you-can-do-to-protect-yourself-and-your-community/



Cromwell, in response to your "how do we know" questions about mild symptoms.

[T00ts]

Now I'm confused as feck...how is it Quack Quack was so enamoured by science and "expert" opinion about Brexit and related doomsday issues, yet now when it comes to Coronavirus, they are all a load of idiots?  ::

 ::  ::  First giggle today!

[DeppityDawg]

Now I'm confused as feck...how is it Quack Quack was so enamoured by science and "expert" opinion about Brexit and related doomsday issues, yet now when it comes to Coronavirus, they are all a load of idiots?  ::

[T00ts]

Mod notice

All coranavirus threads merged in to one,posts from other threads still have the name of that thread and I'm not about to change all those (that's the technical issue) can we please keep to this one thread for the forseeable,thanks.

 :hattip  :thup:

[cromwell]

Mod notice

All coranavirus threads merged in to one,posts from other threads still have the name of that thread and I'm not about to change all those (that's the technical issue) can we please keep to this one thread for the forseeable,thanks.

[T00ts]

So you think China over reacted,they don't give a rats arse about public opinion so I'm afraid your argument doesn't hold up there.







To that in bold how do you know that is the case?

Cromwell are we needing to combine these threads? I keep repeating myself.

[T00ts]

It could all go wrong again in China and the approach there has been draconian.  Even if lockdown is less severe here, surely it's better than nothing.  

Re. experts - what's really worrying is when they're going against common sense, as though they're involved in an experiment to find the outcome, or even to produce an outcome that's worse than an alternative procedure would produce. The fact that I, as a non-expert, along with others on here who are not experts either, are so convinced that the government's policy is wrong.

This is the nightmare. I have opinions too which don't necessarily go along the announcements. I feel they have 'levelled' with us too late for the ones really not interested in news etc. There are a lot of un-biddable less intelligent folk both old and young and others who are simply not interested in what any government dictates. That is the society we have developed. There are many who still don't understand, accept the gravity  or simply won't change their actions. A general lock-down? Don't be funny. Can you see that happening? You would need the army out. That apart though I still maintain  that,  unless we become biddable very rapidly and pull our dissenting horns, in the outcome could be a lot worse. What is our common sense and instinctive to us may not actually be the best way forward. Our instincts are to run from any threat. The trouble is that threat isn't going away.