Latest Chinese export - coronavirus COVID-19

[Barry]

Those figures point to many more infected than have been counted. Eventually we will lose track, too, and counting the infected will be impossible.

The number of infected elsewhere has been about 80 times the number dead, so they probably have 35,000 infected?

[cromwell]

Make that 3 dead. Just announced.

North Manchester General,not far from me.

[T00ts]

Make that 3 dead. Just announced.

[Nick]

And the news from Italy ain't good,I make that a 5% death rate.



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-51793619">//https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-51793619

Doesn't mean a right lot unless they put ages and previous level of health on there.

[cromwell]

And the news from Italy ain't good,I make that a 5% death rate.



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-51793619">//https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-51793619

[cromwell]

Are we able to upload pictures? If so I can upload a graph that shows exactly where Covid-19 sits on the scale of infection V mortality compared to other viruses.

Certainly can Nick just use a image hosting site as per Admin post in announcement section

[papasmurf]

How far will people actually go to accede to government advice? We wouldn't be able to go to a dance!

As one of those most likely to die, I am taking care anyway. It is a shame but I will have to refrain from kissing waitresses at my favourite menu ouvrier (workers menu,) restaurants in Brittany next week. (The French government is advising no kissing or shaking hands anyway.)

The ferry uses fresh air ventilation in the cabins. Our sited mobile home is isolated anyway, there will be few to no other people on the site at this time of year.

[Barry]

The government have mentioned "social distancing" as a method of delaying the spread of the current virus.

Last night we went to a folk dance where we knew a lot of the people attending. There were about 100 people present and as we arrived the lady caller walked over and gave us both a hug and kiss!

We were then dancing, holding hands with virtually every other person in the room at some point.

I noticed people going out to wash their hands before the food was served and also using the liquid gold alcohol gels before eating.

One lady was wearing a pair of white cotton gloves, everyone else seemed not to care.

How far will people actually go to accede to government advice? We wouldn't be able to go to a dance!

[Nick]

Well to answer your other point people don't die of the commom cold virus flu and the common cold in that respect are not the same.

Are we able to upload pictures? If so I can upload a graph that shows exactly where Covid-19 sits on the scale of infection V mortality compared to other viruses.

[papasmurf]

Where did you get that figure from? The decimal point might be in the wrong place?

Actuarial historical data, You will need a calculator:- https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2870877/">https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2870877/



Vaccinations for flu and pneumonia have only become commonplace in the last decade or so, that has cut the death rates dramatically.

The problem is there is no vaccination for Covid 19 so the government "worst case scenario" of 100000 deaths is not unrealistic at all.

[T00ts]

Phew what a relief that the bug has gone.  :hattip

[Barry]

Quite and in Britain the deaths from flu have been as high as 50000 in recent times.

Where did you get that figure from? The decimal point might be in the wrong place?



In the UK it is estimated that an average of 600 people a year die from complications of flu. In some years it is estimated that this can rise to over 10,000 deaths (see for example this UK study from 2013 , which estimated over 13,000 deaths resulting from flu in 2008-09). Flu leads to hundreds of thousands of GP visits and tens of thousands of hospital stays a year.



https://vk.ovg.ox.ac.uk/vk/influenza-flu[/url]

[papasmurf]

Well to answer your other point people don't die of the commom cold virus flu and the common cold in that respect are not the same.

Quite and in Britain the deaths from flu have been as high as 50000 in recent times.

[cromwell]

3000 people die from Flu in the UK every year.

Well to answer your other point people don't die of the commom cold virus flu and the common cold in that respect are not the same.

[Nick]

You are understating the threat. Some are overstating the threat, I know, but this is not a cold virus. it is a very infectious virus that goes straight for the lungs and tries to drown you in your own secretions.

There are several aspects of this which are worrying the authorities:

Asymptomatic spread.

Apparent lack of immunity after having the disease and tested negative. Some people have died suddenly after being cleared and found to have the virus again. Perhaps it can hide?

The WHO say the death rate is 3%. Our health experts say 1%. Common colds don't kill, influenza occasionally does (0.1% 1 in a thousand).

This is 10-30 times more deadly than the flu.

The argument that it's just old and infirm who die doesn't really fly, because of the previously healthy ophthalmologist in China dying after discovering the disease. Having said that the average age of dying people is said to be around 71.

Lack of immunity after infection has to be one of the worst aspects of this nasty little bug which can't be seen, can't always be detected, but is deadly in too many cases to ignore. That's why I'd be happy for all flights between infected countries to stop.

I understand that many flights are now going empty, just to keep their allocated slots, as if they are not used, they can lose them. That has to stop!

Well one of us is going to be right and the other one wrong. Time will tell.