Latest Chinese export - coronavirus COVID-19

[Barry]

It is looking as though this Genie is well and truly out of the bottle and that its real danger is its contagiousness, rather than its lethality.

Yes it is. Italy will be the flame for all of Europe. Patient "zero" cannot be found.



Meanwhile France declare themselves free of COVID-19. They had 12 cases, 1 died and 11 recovered. They don't seem to have found the 80% who went with mild symptoms, I suppose they are uncountable.

What I would say was that was a kill rate of over 8% but the sample is very small.

[Sampanviking]

Where did you get your figures from SPV?

I merely divided the number of deaths by the number infected and multiplied by 100 for a percentage. It isn't harmless or there would not be the actions being taken worldwide to prevent the spread.

Italy have 200 infected, 6 dead - 3% seems to be the recurring figure.

The W.H.O.chap was on the Today program this morning (or possible World Service last night).

The 3% is of the most serious cases that present at Doctors or Hospitals. The vast majority (up to 80%) would not present to medical services and so not form part of the official figures.

IT is also becoming apparent that you can have the virus, be infectious, but have no symptoms. This means that people can spread it without themselves being in any way unwell.



It is looking as though this Genie is well and truly out of the bottle and that its real danger is its contagiousness, rather than its lethality.



I also spoke to my big Bruv yesterday who has a Biologist background and is a senior ranking civil servant in the Science and Engineering Council, specialising in Bio Research. I made the point to him about COVID-19 being just another form of flu, so whats the big deal. His reply is that Seasonal Flu is a big deal, but one that is fully among the global population reeking havoc annually and for which there is nothing that can be done. The authorities are simply trying to avoid letting another virus just as bad run riot through humanity.

I thought I had him when saying "that surely these are two competing viruses going the same vulnerable targets?" to which he replied not necessarily, and that there was a lot of concern at the prospect of the two viruses meeting and mutating each other!



Big Bruv could always shut me up  

[Barry]

So far we've been lucky,not sure it will last and complacency seems to have set in with some.

True.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-51611422">Coronavirus: World should prepare for pandemic, says WHO

[cromwell]

Where did you get your figures from SPV?

I merely divided the number of deaths by the number infected and multiplied by 100 for a percentage. It isn't harmless or there would not be the actions being taken worldwide to prevent the spread.

Italy have 200 infected, 6 dead - 3% seems to be the recurring figure.

So far we've been lucky,not sure it will last and complacency seems to have set in with some.

[Barry]

Where did you get your figures from SPV?

I merely divided the number of deaths by the number infected and multiplied by 100 for a percentage. It isn't harmless or there would not be the actions being taken worldwide to prevent the spread.

Italy have 200 infected, 6 dead - 3% seems to be the recurring figure.

[Sampanviking]

Nothing worse than rugrats for spreading coughs and sneezes, SW!



What is 3% of 7,760,000,000 people?

Answer 232,800,000, which is the potential numbers at risk of dying from this disease, worldwide. That's on a par with the 1918-1919 influenza.

On the good side, in the UK there's just a few cases and they are all contained.

Hang on there Barry the W.H.O spokesman was on air again today and repeated that 80% of those infected will only show minor or even no symptoms of the virus. Of the remaining 20% that show more serious symptoms, the death rate is averaging about 2 - 3%.



He also said something very interesting. He said in Wuhan itself, that the fatality rate among the seriously ill was up to 4% but that in the rest of China it was only 0.4%. This suggests to me that there is a big difference in outcome depending on the intensity of the initial viral infection. To put it in more military terms - the difference between a sniper taking individual shots and being under a barrage of heavy machine guns and artillery.

Suggests further that those that have gone to hospital after the first cough have done themselves no favours, only ensured their massive exposure to the virus.

[T00ts]

Italian numbers rising and Lyons worries about an Italian coach driver showing symptoms. I wonder at what point the EU starts to regret open borders and free movement?

[papasmurf]

I just phoned my local GP practice to get some information and before I could speak to a human, I got a recorded message about if you have come back from abroad recently and develop any cough/cold symptoms don't come to the surgery.

[Barry]

I see Austria have closed the border with Italy, at least as far as a train is concerned.

Perhaps borders need to be closed to stop the spread, and all flights cancelled. Will they do it, no.

The W.H.O. are beginning to think it's beyond control, now.



I was looking at some stats for the 2009 swine flu H1N1 strain which infected up to 20% of world population and only killed about 0.04% (4 in 10,000).

This latest nasty has a kill rate about 50-75 times higher, so the concern from governments is justified.

[Barry]

Nothing worse than rugrats for spreading coughs and sneezes, SW!



What is 3% of 7,760,000,000 people?

Answer 232,800,000, which is the potential numbers at risk of dying from this disease, worldwide. That's on a par with the 1918-1919 influenza.

On the good side, in the UK there's just a few cases and they are all contained.

[Streetwalker]

I've just read a report in the FT which says there are 100 cases in Northern Italy, south east from Milan and they have ordered people in 12 towns to stay indoors. Is there any stopping this?  :shrg:

Doesn't look like it , lots of school trips to Northern Italy during the half term , only a matter of time before the UK has to deal with it

[Barry]

I've just read a report in the FT which says there are 100 cases in Northern Italy, south east from Milan and they have ordered people in 12 towns to stay indoors. Is there any stopping this?  :shrg:

[Baron von Lotsov]

I found this on Dominic Cummings' blog:

Experiments on viruses that could cause a global pandemic killing many millions were halted but were recently cleared to resume and will be conducted in these 'top security' labs.



The new Bulletin of Atomic Scientists carries research showing how the supposedly most secure bio-labs have serious security problems and clearly present an unacceptable risk of causing a disastrous pandemic:



'Incidents causing potential exposures to pathogens occur frequently in the high security laboratories often known by their acronyms, BSL3 (Biosafety Level 3) and BSL4. Lab incidents that lead to undetected or unreported laboratory-acquired infections can lead to the release of a disease into the community outside the lab; lab workers with such infections will leave work carrying the pathogen with them. If the agent involved were a potential pandemic pathogen, such a community release could lead to a worldwide pandemic with many fatalities. Of greatest concern is a release of a lab-created, mammalian-airborne-transmissible, highly pathogenic avian influenza virus, such as the airborne-transmissible H5N1 viruses created in the laboratories of Ron Fouchier in the Netherlands and Yoshihiro Kawaoka In Madison Wisconsin.



/



'Such releases are fairly likely over time, as there are at least 14 labs (mostly in Asia) now carrying out this research. Whatever release probability the world is gambling with, it is clearly far too high a risk to human lives. Mammal-transmissible bird flu research poses a real danger of a worldwide pandemic that could kill human beings on a vast scale.

https://dominiccummings.com/2019/03/04/the-most-secure-bio-labs-routinely-make-errors-that-could-cause-a-global-pandemic-are-about-to-re-start-experiments-on-pathogens-engineered-to-make-them-mammalian-airborne-transmissible/">https://dominiccummings.com/2019/03/04/ ... smissible/">https://dominiccummings.com/2019/03/04/the-most-secure-bio-labs-routinely-make-errors-that-could-cause-a-global-pandemic-are-about-to-re-start-experiments-on-pathogens-engineered-to-make-them-mammalian-airborne-transmissible/



Dated March 2019



H5N1 is more commonly known as bird flu due to it mysteriously jumping species.

[Barry]

Edited - info I posted earlier I found out was false.



However:

Current death rate in China, if figures can be believed - around 3%.

[Baron von Lotsov]

Oh f**k off.



I was on the grain run to China in the early 60s. When we reached port the Chinese would show us movies of happy peasants at banquets where they raised their wine glasses in homage to the Great Leader Mao Tse Tung. And in the interior 30 million Chinese had starved to death.



All dictatorships lie and the Chinese  do a worse job than most.



The bad news is that Xi Pinjing will carry on lying because that is all he knows.



The good news is that it is only the flu and will soon burn itself out.

There's an old saying in China.



Mao freed us and Deng Xiaoping fed us.



If you study their history it was not quite as simple as Mao killing 30 million. I know a lot of people like to quote it, but have you ever studied exactly what happened? The truth is far more mundane.



During that time there was a spot of bad weather and the crops were not as good as they had been in the past. They had borrowed tons of cash from the Soviets and had to pay it back. If you ever tried to get a loan off the Mafia you would understand that one pays their debts on time. Think about it.

During that time the local officials who were responsible for returning so much grain to the state to pay off the soviets were totally loyal to Mao to such an extent that they worshipped him like a god. Communication in China was bad so as far as they saw it they felt they were letting the country down if they did not get good harvests. It was all on figures and the crops just did not produce the quantity that year to show they had been good boys, so they lied about the amount they produced. Then they had to send the quota off or there would be trouble. Mao was unaware of the bad harvest because all the figures he got from his officials were lies. It was bloody tragic, but you can't really lay the blame on Mao. It was the great loyalty he commanded that caused the problem.



Anyway, looking at it all with hindsight, the effects of Mao was that the ruling land-owning aristocracy was wiped out. Many Chinese believe that if they had not then they would have got back control at some point and China would still be a poor rural serfdom like we had in the 18th century.