Need some advice on currency speculation

[Baff]

If you think Trump will win the next election, sell your gold and buy $ with it.
If you think he will lose, buy gold with your $.

That's my advice.
I wish I had realised this last time round.


Currency markets are fast moving.
Volatile.
Keep your eye on it every day.


Personally I prefer to hedge.
To have a basket of things that pay in multiple currencies.
So that whatever is up or down vs the other I'm still getting a good whack from one or the other. 

[Nick]

Sure, the pound tanked a few months ago, and since then it has surged back to 'where it was'
and 'were it was' was at a 10 year low.

Ignore the tanking and surging of the last few months and what your left with is a weak pound.

Yet it is still the fourth strongest currency in the world. 

[Nalaar]

Well, people used the word tanked to explain what happened a few months ago, but as soon as anyone mentions a recovery , the definition gets stretched out to 10 years. I'm waiting on the very same usage somewhere else also. You can't have it both ways, if you define tanked over a certain timeframe, recovery has to be defined over the same timeframe.

Sure, the pound tanked a few months ago, and since then it has surged back to 'where it was'
and 'were it was' was at a 10 year low. 

Ignore the tanking and surging of the last few months and what your left with is a weak pound. 

[johnofgwent]

Well, people used the word tanked to explain what happened a few months ago, but as soon as anyone mentions a recovery , the definition gets stretched out to 10 years. I'm waiting on the very same usage somewhere else also. You can't have it both ways, if you define tanked over a certain timeframe, recovery has to be defined over the same timeframe.

The problem I see is the chalk vs cheese comparisons.

For a start, the media chatter regarding the collapse of the pound in recent times has sometimes mentioned steps taken by the yanks to boost the dollar, and sometimes not. So did the Americans do anything, and if so what did it do ? What datum level is there that I can compare against ?

Without that issue firmly settled it's impossible to properly attribute a weakening of the pound against the dollar to a cause. Of course that may be what some people want. 
so what's the truth here ?

[Borchester]

Well, people used the word tanked to explain what happened a few months ago, but as soon as anyone mentions a recovery , the definition gets stretched out to 10 years. I'm waiting on the very same usage somewhere else also. You can't have it both ways, if you define tanked over a certain timeframe, recovery has to be defined over the same timeframe.

Good point.

The pound is currently at £1 : $1.22, which is a slight better than a month ago when it was a guinea to the pound. But it is all bollocks. There was a time when it was close to ten dollars to the pound, but I have heard that things in the US have picked up a bit since then.

[Nick]

You'll need to define when "where it was" is. The pound is down pretty significantly over its position 10 years ago, 5 years ago, 2 years ago, and 1 year ago.
Being 'back up' to numbers a few months old which were themselves at a 10 year low is a positive, but a very slight one.

Well, people used the word tanked to explain what happened a few months ago, but as soon as anyone mentions a recovery , the definition gets stretched out to 10 years. I'm waiting on the very same usage somewhere else also. You can't have it both ways, if you define tanked over a certain timeframe, recovery has to be defined over the same timeframe. 

[johnofgwent]

Four dollars to the pound ?

my great uncle who was pretty much the last RAMC man out of India on the last hospital ship leaving the Raj to return to Blighty used to refer to the half crown as the half dollar because for quite a while from around his teenage years onwards the pound was indeed worth around four dollars.

[cromwell]

Four dollars to the pound ?

You have to be an age to remember that and why half a crown was known as half a dollar.

[Nalaar]

Just to keep the Grim Reapers uptodate, the good ole GBP is back where it was, another doom and gloom story put back to bed.
And still the oldest used currency in the world I may add.

You'll need to define when "where it was" is. The pound is down pretty significantly over its position 10 years ago, 5 years ago, 2 years ago, and 1 year ago.
Being 'back up' to numbers a few months old which were themselves at a 10 year low is a positive, but a very slight one.

[Borchester]

Just to keep the Grim Reapers uptodate, the good ole GBP is back where it was, another doom and gloom story put back to bed.
And still the oldest used currency in the world I may add.

Four dollars to the pound ?

[Nick]

Just to keep the Grim Reapers uptodate, the good ole GBP is back where it was, another doom and gloom story put back to bed.
And still the oldest used currency in the world I may add.

[Borchester]

You could always get a job old man 😂

It is a thought, but in my experience there is little real money in work.

[Nick]

Well not quite. But the nice lady at the bank pointed out that my scheme might make me a few pounds but would screw the NatWest. So it is back to the drawing board

You could always get a job old man 😂 

[Borchester]

And buying dollars is the wrong way round, you should have bought them at 1.35 and be selling them at 1.06 if you intend to make money that is.

Well not quite. But the nice lady at the bank pointed out that my scheme might make me a few pounds but would screw the NatWest. So it is back to the drawing board

[Nick]

Nicks right for a change Borky... Best stick to Tulips. Then again, Trussnomics and the Pound...

You mean you've actually understood it for a change. 😉