Where do they get these people?

[cromwell]

Yet the Tories succeeded in weaponising the winter of discontent against Labour for nearly two decades afterwards. And very few have forgotten Blair's ignominious role in the Iraq War.

Sometimes the electorate can have very long memories.

Last time the Tories lost their reputation for sound economic management - in 1992 - it took them at least a decade and a half to regain it.

Me for one.  

[srb7677]

Face it, the bulk of the electorate have the memory of a goldfish...

Yet the Tories succeeded in weaponising the winter of discontent against Labour for nearly two decades afterwards. And very few have forgotten Blair's ignominious role in the Iraq War.

Sometimes the electorate can have very long memories. 

Last time the Tories lost their reputation for sound economic management - in 1992 - it took them at least a decade and a half to regain it.

[patman post]

If you think the Tories can fix the ever-worsening disaster in two years you are in for a shock.

Face it, the bulk of the electorate have the memory of a goldfish...

[papasmurf]

Indeed, but a GE is years away, and the economy will undoubtedly be fixed by then. These rabid Labourites that think the opinion polls will be the same as now are deluded.

If you think the Tories can fix the ever-worsening disaster in two years you are in for a shock.

[Nick]

I think it would require some mathematical somersaults to get a majority in the house when the opposition have 49% of the vote, compared to your 26%, but it might be possible.

Indeed, but a GE is years away, and the economy will undoubtedly be fixed by then. These rabid Labourites that think the opinion polls will be the same as now are deluded. 

[Barry]

But getting the most votes doesn't guarantee you a majority in parliament.

I think it would require some mathematical somersaults to get a majority in the house when the opposition have 49% of the vote, compared to your 26%, but it might be possible.

[Nick]

Here you go:
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
85 seats for the Tories.
471 Labour seats based on current polls. I know polls are not elections.

But getting the most votes doesn't guarantee you a majority in parliament. 

[patman post]

General Opinion Polls give an indication. And parties get ideas as to what is registering with voters.

Perhaps what is most informative in political opinion polls is if a trend becomes apparent during a few weeks running up to an election. Past polls seemed to run a week or so behind the "actuality", so there could be spurts or drops in support that don't show, and the results can surprise.

Conversely, a consistent significant lag has to be worrying. And for the Tories, although there are two years to go, I suggest their majority largely came through the attraction of the character of Boris Johnson and Brexit promises delivering previous dyed in the wool Labour voters and constituencies.

Today, the Johnson image is less attractive, Brexit isn't seen as having delivered, and the Tories are in charge while the cost of living is rocketing — especially for middle income and the lower paid.

Truss appears to have bet the ranch on borrowing, tax cutting and public spending controls. That needs to show substantial signs of paying off by end 2024 — or (like who she attempts to model herself on) she'll need to go to war to win the country's patriotic support — assuming she's still in post...

[Barry]

Here you go:
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
85 seats for the Tories.
471 Labour seats based on current polls. I know polls are not elections.

[Nick]

Unless the Tories are doing gerrymandering next election, we already know the swings needed for each seat Nick. 33pt lead is massive majority for Labour. Also, if Labour have 54% of the electorate vote, the Tories don't have 46%. The 46% is split by the remaining parties.

It's pointless discussing anything with you, you carry on in your bubble. 

[Sheepy]

Do you know what Sheepy, think what you like. I enjoy reading Tories act as if a 33pt lead is nothing.

I usually do, think what I like, I know you love winding them up.

[B0ycey]

No, you don't it is all based on Tories voting Labour and there aren't enough of them to fill a village hall spread around the country.

Do you know what Sheepy, think what you like. I enjoy reading Tories act as if a 33pt lead is nothing.

[Sheepy]

Unless the Tories are doing gerrymandering next election, we already know the swings needed for each seat Nick. 54pt lead is massive majority for Labour.

No, you don't it is all based on Tories voting Labour and there aren't enough of them to fill a village hall spread around the country. 

[B0ycey]

Rubbish. If a 100 people turn out and vote, 54 vote for Labour in 1 seat and 46 vote Torie in another they both get 1 seat each. The percentage votes doesn't tell you how many seats they got.

Unless the Tories are doing gerrymandering next election, we already know the swings needed for each seat Nick. 33pt lead is massive majority for Labour. Also, if Labour have 54% of the electorate vote, the Tories don't have 46%. The 46% is split by the remaining parties.

[Nick]

Are you aware how a GE works more like? 54pt Labour lead, it was works out the Tories would get 63 seats if they are lucky. Above half the voter share in FPTP is a better advantage than PR in terms of seats given Labout would have around 380 seats under PR but over 500 under FPTP.

Rubbish. If a 100 people turn out and vote, 54 vote for Labour in 1 seat and 46 vote Torie in another they both get 1 seat each. The percentage votes doesn't tell you how many seats they got.

1951 saw the Conservative Party win 48% of the vote to 48.8% for Labour. Yet there was a Conservative majority.