Project Fear

[Baff]

All of which are frankly rubbish, and will make matters worse for British agriculture, fishing and manufacturing.

They are the exact same as the ones we had as EU members.
A roll over.

They may or may not be good. But the difference now is how easily we can change them.
So if you don't like them, you are better off. Because getting them changed is going to be easier.


The new fisheries deals are obviously much improved from the EU common fisheries.
If you wish to deny that reality, be my guest.

You might note that as Streetwalker points out, it is the EU fishermen that are crying their eyes out and protesting about this one. Not ours.
Who now have 40% extra catches and foreign supertrawlers banned from our waters. Their catches are up, their sales are up, their exports are up. 
They voted for Brexit and their very high profile issues have been addressed by it directly. 

[Streetwalker]

All of which are frankly rubbish, and will make matters worse for fishing 

Yes they were that rubbish the Irish and French fisherman were the ones protesting about it 

[papasmurf]

+And was.
40+ trade deals struck in a year.
At a penstroke each.

All of which are frankly rubbish, and will make matters worse for British agriculture, fishing and manufacturing.

[Baff]

+

Not just having a vote, having a vote and then committing that it was binding and that the UK held all the cards,  easiest trade deal in history could be struck, 

And was.
40+ trade deals struck in a year. 
At a penstroke each.

Even signing a trade deal with the EU took well under the usual multiple decades.

All around the world people were laughing. And they still are.
The smart ones are laughing with us.
The sore ones are not.

[Baff]

Trade with the EU has been falling steadily for decades.

Trade with the EU post Brexit has been at around the very upper levels of what it was during our membership.
The general trend over decades has been a rise in trade.
The is probably true for the general trend of non EU trade also. But I haven't checked.

In the end a change of political leadership changes neither demand nor supply.
Leaving the EU was never going to have a noticeable effect on trade.

The EU line is an average for all EU countries, broken out some would be above and some below, as you well know GDP growth in each EU country is not the same. The UK prior to leaving tracks this line very closely.
The fact is the UK GDP did start to drop off in 2016, a number of factors would contribute to this, investor reluctance of investing in a country that doesn't have a future plan, not knowing what financial regulation/tax rates would be in place or what access the UK would have to the EU market or any market actually. You also had the fall in sterling which would affect manufacturing costs with imports. Having Johnson at the helm didn't help, he may have played will with loclas but outside the UK he was seen as a total clown, that would affect FDI coming into the UK. The rhetoric of "we don't want sponging EU emigrants" did drive out skilled EU workers that contributed on average more than the average UK person.

At the end of the day, brexit happened and the slide started. There is a marked jump when you did eventually leave when people say the disastrous hard brexit deal that was sought and agreed by the UK.

Not just having a vote, having a vote and then committing that it was binding and that the UK held all the cards,  easiest trade deal in history could be struck, the German car manufacturers bla bla bla, the EU needs us bla bla bla, 350m a week for the bla bla bla. better trade deals all around the globe bla bla bla.  You do realise that outside the UK people looked and laughed, knowing all the above was just the biggest load of old bo11ox. No wonder GDP started to fall.

Of course it has nothing to do with brexit, we'll never admit brexit was bad for the UK. It's like a comical Monty python sketch at this stage.

Investment in the UK boomed after the referendum result.
Everybody loved to see a country so confident in itself and a £ so cheap.

Investment then faltered as the anti democrats refused to go along with the vote. In a self fulfilling prophecy, project fear talked the confidence out of the economy.

This reduced investor confidence continued during the weak and stagnant government of Mrs May and bounced back under Boris with his landslide victory.
Since Boris's exit, it has now gone down again.


Brexit is bad for Ireland.
Not the UK.
You are projecting you own misery on to us. We don't feel it.


It is bad for a minority of people in the UK I'll go that far with you.
Mostly this has to do with egg on faces. A lot of people not man enough to lose face.

[Baff]

It hasn't, as I have referenced, when the export of energy is taken into account. (The Brexit problems have been on TV News Bulletins and even in the right wing Tory supporting press this week.)

Try getting your news from reputable sources.

If you don't want to listen to EU propaganda, you don't have to.
Equally, if you wish to listen to anti EU propaganda instead, there has been plenty this week.

Either listen to both, or neither. One or the other will leave you ignorant.

We are doing better than the EU on basically every economic metric.
Hardly surprising as when in the EU we were one of it's top three economies.

[Baff]

Nick it has been widely reported today and yesterday:-

Brexit costs government £40 billion a year in lost tax revenue | ITV News

Sounds good.
Why would you want higher taxes?

Less tax = a better economy.

[papasmurf]

.

Trade with the EU has recovered, f

It hasn't, as I have referenced, when the export of energy is taken into account. (The Brexit problems have been on TV News Bulletins and even in the right wing Tory supporting press this week.)

[Nick]

The EU line is an average for all EU countries, broken out some would be above and some below, as you well know GDP growth in each EU country is not the same. The UK prior to leaving tracks this line very closely.
The fact is the UK GDP did start to drop off in 2016, a number of factors would contribute to this, investor reluctance of investing in a country that doesn't have a future plan, not knowing what financial regulation/tax rates would be in place or what access the UK would have to the EU market or any market actually. You also had the fall in sterling which would affect manufacturing costs with imports. Having Johnson at the helm didn't help, he may have played will with loclas but outside the UK he was seen as a total clown, that would affect FDI coming into the UK. The rhetoric of "we don't want sponging EU emigrants" did drive out skilled EU workers that contributed on average more than the average UK person.

At the end of the day, brexit happened and the slide started. There is a marked jump when you did eventually leave when people say the disastrous hard brexit deal that was sought and agreed by the UK.

Not just having a vote, having a vote and then committing that it was binding and that the UK held all the cards,  easiest trade deal in history could be struck, the German car manufacturers bla bla bla, the EU needs us bla bla bla, 350m a week for the bla bla bla. better trade deals all around the globe bla bla bla.  You do realise that outside the UK people looked and laughed, knowing all the above was just the biggest load of old bo11ox. No wonder GDP started to fall.

Of course it has nothing to do with brexit, we'll never admit brexit was bad for the UK. It's like a comical Monty python sketch at this stage.

Some very simple facts Gerry. 

Trade with the EU has been falling steadily for decades. 

The deficit between imports and exports has stayed the same, showing that the paperwork on the U.K. side hasn't impacted exports. 

Trade with the EU has recovered, following the exact path of the world coming out of Covid. Impacted by the war along the way. 

There is no dip in the graphs coinciding with Brexit. 





If you can show any data that undoubtedly separates trade problems between Covid and Brexit Noe's the time to do it. 

[GerryT]

WOW Gerry, what an amazing graph, so amazing the it shows the U.K. would be better off in the EU almost 5 years before the U.K. even had a vote. If this graph is what you say it is, the 2 lines can only possibly diverge AFTER the U.K. left the EU, up until that point they would be at parity. So please explain how your magic graph shows a difference in the 2 lines going back to 2012? 

The EU line is an average for all EU countries, broken out some would be above and some below, as you well know GDP growth in each EU country is not the same. The UK prior to leaving tracks this line very closely.
The fact is the UK GDP did start to drop off in 2016, a number of factors would contribute to this, investor reluctance of investing in a country that doesn't have a future plan, not knowing what financial regulation/tax rates would be in place or what access the UK would have to the EU market or any market actually. You also had the fall in sterling which would affect manufacturing costs with imports. Having Johnson at the helm didn't help, he may have played will with loclas but outside the UK he was seen as a total clown, that would affect FDI coming into the UK. The rhetoric of "we don't want sponging EU emigrants" did drive out skilled EU workers that contributed on average more than the average UK person.

At the end of the day, brexit happened and the slide started. There is a marked jump when you did eventually leave when people say the disastrous hard brexit deal that was sought and agreed by the UK.

You just stated that it was never going to be an immediate change, death of a thousands knives, but now you're saying that just having a vote affected the U.K. economy. Gerry, this graph based on what you're saying is bollox.

Not just having a vote, having a vote and then committing that it was binding and that the UK held all the cards,  easiest trade deal in history could be struck, the German car manufacturers bla bla bla, the EU needs us bla bla bla, 350m a week for the bla bla bla. better trade deals all around the globe bla bla bla.  You do realise that outside the UK people looked and laughed, knowing all the above was just the biggest load of old bo11ox. No wonder GDP started to fall.

Of course it has nothing to do with brexit, we'll never admit brexit was bad for the UK. It's like a comical Monty python sketch at this stage.

[Nick]

Nick you really are suffering from cognitive dissonance. Brexit problems have been a major news item for two days now.

Smurfism #99, and usual boring response. 

[Nick]

This graph shows where the UK would be if it had stayed in the EU, about 5% better off than where it is today. Are you going to ignore this and say's its because of x, y or z ?

WOW Gerry, what an amazing graph, so amazing the it shows the U.K. would be better off in the EU almost 5 years before the U.K. even had a vote. If this graph is what you say it is, the 2 lines can only possibly diverge AFTER the U.K. left the EU, up until that point they would be at parity. So please explain how your magic graph shows a difference in the 2 lines going back to 2012? 

You just stated that it was never going to be an immediate change, death of a thousands knives, but now you're saying that just having a vote affected the U.K. economy. Gerry, this graph based on what you're saying is bollox. 

[papasmurf]

It's a waste of time even trying to debate with you, you're just a snake in the grass.

Nick you really are suffering from cognitive dissonance. Brexit problems have been a major news item for two days now.

[GerryT]

It's a waste of time even trying to debate with you, you're just a snake in the grass.

You're just blind to any negative talk of brexit when it's staring you in the face. Pre exit everything was the fault of the EU, now you've left and everything is the fault of covid or Russia. When will you realise that Brexit is also a factor. It was never going to be a cliff edge, it will for some, but in general it's going to have a negative effect on the UK economy and people for decades to come.

This needs registration but is a good summary of what brexit means.

https://www.newstatesman.com/chart-of-the-day/2022/06/uk-economy-fallen-behind-eu-since-brexit

Britain's GDP per head has grown just 3.8 per cent since the referendum, while the EU's has grown by 8.5 per cent.
As of the last quarter of 2021, the UK's GDP per head was 0.2 per cent lower than before the pandemic. The EU's, by contrast, had grown by 1.5 per cent. 


The EU got back to pre pandemic GDP nearly a yr before the UK and that's after the UK coming out of lockdown earlier.  This graph shows where the UK would be if it had stayed in the EU, about 5% better off than where it is today. Are you going to ignore this and say's its because of x, y or z ?

[GerryT]

Oh I don't know Gerry it seems a few on high are on the take,the Greek woman and others which you are studiously ignoring.

Not ignoring, yes there's been some in EU officialdom caught out on the take. They'll most likely lose their positions and hopefully do jail time. It's not the corruption in itself but how the system deals with these people. In the UK they seem to get promoted, retain their jobs.