By-election wasn't just a bad result for the Tories - it was a disaster

[johnofgwent]

Surely that is an Oxymoron?

No, they're called champagne socialists for a reason 

Ed Milliband the owner of a London home with a second kitchenette in which he could enjoy a slice of artisan baked bread and free range marmalade before nipping out to choke on a bacon sandwich for the election campaign he was about to lose more comprehensively than England's men in every World Cup since 1966 being a prime example 

[Borchester]

No just morons!

No.

To start with I live in a rich, successful city which needs a lot of organising and which is full of folk trying to make a few bob. Organisation requires civil servants who tend towards the left.

Secondly, London is full of bankers and such who requires a quiet life to do business.

So the result is that like most capital cities, London is somewhat left of centre.

[Nick]

It is much bigger shakes than 22% of a 40% turnout,

And 52% is bigger than 48% but quite a few on here don't comprehend that!!

[T00ts]

Surely that is an Oxymoron?

No just morons!

[papasmurf]

 middle class and affluent lefties 

Surely that is an Oxymoron?

[Borchester]

Yes, it's almost as rare as a returning officer being able to get to have a gin and tonic before they call last orders on polling night.

But when Tony Blair caused engagement to  fall to just 13% of the voters in our locality in 2009, the polling stations were done and dusted by 22:50 having done the business of the Thursday night when all they do is open the boxes and transfer the votes to unsecured clear plastic containers she did just that. I myself was able to ring my mate in the pub miles away and get him to order me a pint that I arrived before 11pm to start and finish before drinking up time

I was also able to repeat the process on the Sunday when they took the votes out of the unsealed plastic containers and actually counted them. That process was done and dusted by 23:40 which meant Moira and I had a leisurely 20 minutes to get to the pub by its weekend stop tap of midnight.

The whole point being what would the huge number of voters who chose not to bother have voted had they bothered.

To my mind the most likely scenario is that huge swathes of Tory voters who felt kicked in the nether regions by Sunak and Hunt chose not to bother to come out. But there's no concrete way to prove the voting intentions of the non voters.

that same level of utter disengagement with the mainstream have Griffin and Brons their MEP seats.

This is why I made the observation I did. With the massive difference in turnout I could take the stats, draw a donkey AND pin both its tail and a labour rosette on it.

Quite.

I am a born Tory but my constituency is full of nice, middle class and affluent lefties who would vote for Sir Keir's dog if it wore a red rosette
.
Whenever she gets in the family way, my MP wanders about issuing vapid observations and happy smiles to the electorate and her ratings soar. Which is as it should be. But I can't see much point in extrapolating such moments to the results of a general election.

[johnofgwent]

I am only commenting on the 61% which is a rare result.

Yes, it's almost as rare as a returning officer being able to get to have a gin and tonic before they call last orders on polling night.

But when Tony Blair caused engagement to  fall to just 13% of the voters in our locality in 2009, the polling stations were done and dusted by 22:50 having done the business of the Thursday night when all they do is open the boxes and transfer the votes to unsecured clear plastic containers she did just that. I myself was able to ring my mate in the pub miles away and get him to order me a pint that I arrived before 11pm to start and finish before drinking up time

I was also able to repeat the process on the Sunday when they took the votes out of the unsealed plastic containers and actually counted them. That process was done and dusted by 23:40 which meant Moira and I had a leisurely 20 minutes to get to the pub by its weekend stop tap of midnight.

The whole point being what would the huge number of voters who chose not to bother have voted had they bothered.

To my mind the most likely scenario is that huge swathes of Tory voters who felt kicked in the nether regions by Sunak and Hunt chose not to bother to come out. But there's no concrete way to prove the voting intentions of the non voters. 

that same level of utter disengagement with the mainstream have Griffin and Brons their MEP seats.

This is why I made the observation I did. With the massive difference in turnout I could take the stats, draw a donkey AND pin both its tail and a labour rosette on it.

[srb7677]

61% of a 40+% turnout is no great shakes.

It is much bigger shakes than 22% of a 40% turnout,

[Borchester]

61% of a 40+% turnout is no great shakes.

Exactly Toots.

The way the Tory vote is now, the Brothers and Sisters could put up a scabby dog and still win.

But it is still 2 years to the before the general election and anything can happen

[T00ts]

I am only commenting on the 61% which is a rare result.

61% of a 40+% turnout is no great shakes. 

[papasmurf]

Then don't ask for a job as a statistician.

Only half the usual voters turned out, which means it is impossible to extrapolate from the result.

I am only commenting on the 61% which is a rare result.

[Borchester]

I am only commenting on that 61%.

Then don't ask for a job as a statistician.

Only half the usual voters turned out, which means it is impossible to extrapolate from the result.

[papasmurf]

They are trying to make comparisons between an event where 7 out of 10 of the electorate got off their arse to make a statement, and another where barely four and a half out of ten did.

Your Pal Borchester is the guy who got paid to do maths,

I am only commenting on that 61%.

[johnofgwent]

Getting 61% of the vote in a by election has not happened for a very long time.

They are trying to make comparisons between an event where 7 out of 10 of the electorate got off their arse to make a statement, and another where barely four and a half out of ten did.

Your Pal Borchester is the guy who got paid to do maths, I'm just the guy who got trained to take a research paper that used statistics to put its point over and explain to the society's referee panel why the author should be taken outside, shot, cut up into bits and those bits get fed to wild dogs as a warning to others to do the job properly.

You've no idea who the 2,000 + fewer voters on the electoral roll this year used to be, where they are now (in a coffin perhaps?) and you've got NO way of knowing who the 'nearly as many who sat on there arse and didn't come out as came out and voted last time' might have voted for.

if you can't see why not having that detail makes a mockery of whatever sky are pretending to have analysed then there really is no point going further with this thread with you

Because while they MIGHT be right they might just am well be utterly wrong

[papasmurf]

If this refers to the recent by-election I think I'd does, it was no such thing.

Getting 61% of the vote in a by election has not happened for a very long time.