The Windsor Framework, getting Brexit undone

[Nick]

3 Brexit is doing significant damage to Britain, which will get worse as time passes.

No it's not. 

[Streetwalker]

And there we have it. The complexities of hundreds of years of Anglo irish history and the delicate balance that ended decades of bloody conflict boiled down to "they can tolerate our best efforts" 😂

What I was alluding to was whatever we do with regard the border it will never be good enough for remoaners so it will end up being a case of like it or lump it .

They won't just swallow whatever we tell them to, that was why they fought for independence. This time round the Irish have the upper hand.

The upper hand in what , making things difficult for the UK ?  They have been doing that for some time 

And besides, does NI really want to be in the UK single market and not in the EU single market? Aside from a few headbanging orangemen I think most in NI are perfectly happy with checks on the Irish Sea over checks on the Irish border.

Even the British government thinks that is the case when they stated that NI enjoys a favoured position of being both in the EU single market *and* in the UK single market! Let's leave aside the fact that privalge was once enjoyed by the entire UK.

And right now, NI is the best performing UK nation. It's economy like France, like Germany, like Italy, has grown since 2019 unike the rest of the UK which is still below where it was in 2019. Must be the weather.

As I have said a customs border in the Irish sea is against the act of the union ,a customs border in Ireland is against nothing . Making it work needs the will of all sides ,when we have that they will work it out .

The UK government are remainers and will say anything that keeps the door open to Europe . 

Who is performing better at this time is irrelevent to the debate on the Windsor Framework 

[papasmurf]

There are only 2 possible explanations regarding Brexit

1) Brexit is doing very little damage to the U.K. 

2) Brexit is doing significant damage to the EU.

Which is it?

3 Brexit is doing significant damage to Britain, which will get worse as time passes.

[Nick]

Not ignoring, just not sure throwing those figures around gets us anywhere.

Your point is we were ahead of France and now we are.... still ahead of France.? Why not pick Spain? Or Belgium? We were ahead of them and now are still ahead of them.

If you look at the GDP (and growth) as graphs on the world bank site what emerges is both the UK and France more or less bumping along at the same level.

I"ve attached 2 graphs from the world bank from. 2000-2022. Is it obvious which one is which? Is it obvious which one is doing better? I'd say it's more striking how similar they are.

And for shits and giggles I've attached Ireland's gdp over the same time period.

Now I've looked at your link and commented, are you going to comment on the Hoc library report, which was considerably more downbeat on the UK economy, and in particular singled out it's slower recover relative to pre pandemic rather than bottom of pandemic levels.?

No, we are not just bumping along with France, we are opening up a gap with France. And the reason I chose France is because they are the closest in terms of GDP, and the country being levelled as doing better than us: they're not.
The reason I chose the world bank is because they have an overview of what's going on, the HoC's library isn't a financial institute.
As for your graphs, they are meaningless. 

As for Ireland, they are in a Technical recession as of 2023.

With the Eurozone almost entirely in recession and the fact the U.K. isn't should tell you something. We handled Covid better, came out of it better and are not being clobbered by Brexit. And no amount of you and your fellow remainers wishing it to be, so you can say told you so, is going to make it so.

There are only 2 possible explanations regarding Brexit

1) Brexit is doing very little damage to the U.K. 

2) Brexit is doing significant damage to the EU.

Which is it?

[BeElBeeBub]

I notice you totally swerved the post I did highlighting the data from world bank showing the latest figures. Well here it is again.

Not ignoring, just not sure throwing those figures around gets us anywhere.

Your point is we were ahead of France and now we are.... still ahead of France.? Why not pick Spain? Or Belgium? We were ahead of them and now are still ahead of them. 

If you look at the GDP (and growth) as graphs on the world bank site what emerges is both the UK and France more or less bumping along at the same level.

I"ve attached 2 graphs from the world bank from. 2000-2022. Is it obvious which one is which? Is it obvious which one is doing better? I'd say it's more striking how similar they are. 

And for shits and giggles I've attached Ireland's gdp over the same time period. 

Now I've looked at your link and commented, are you going to comment on the Hoc library report, which was considerably more downbeat on the UK economy, and in particular singled out it's slower recover relative to pre pandemic rather than bottom of pandemic levels.?

[BeElBeeBub]

No I didn't, I said I got out of the car and had to pass immigration, this was separate to the main crossing. The driver drove through the fast pass lane and collected me on the other side. Only vehicles with incorrect driver or too many heat signatures get stopped.

As for your 175 crossings, the vast majority are unsuitable for artics and any seen would be stopped. You would use a MSR system where trucks had to cross, back roads would have the usual dodgy goings on like on every minor crossing in the world, including the EU. So let's not try and suggest a problem on TIOI would be an isolated issue within the EU. Let's face it, most opiates come from Afghanistan through Central Europe IE Germany, Scandinavia or the Balkans. The EU doesn't seem to be able to plug those holes in it's border so why would they be bothered about what sneaks through bandit country?

Thats the fast pass checkpoint. Before it is a raft of cameras and sensors to, as you say, check heat signatures, documents (flashed at the cameras apparently) and no doubt number plates. Even then it has no way of actually knowing what you have in your vehicle.

All of that is infrastructure. Choke points, barriers, approved routes etc. Aka "hard border" 

The problem is putting in any border infrastructure is politically fraught, and there is no magic tech that doesn't require some form of infrastructure, which the UK (and Irish) government has ruled out. 

You keep saying the border can be made seamless but then keep pointing to borders that are not seamless.

And nobody will. Comment on why the proposed solutions can't be used at the Irish Sea. 

[Nick]

And there we have it. The complexities of hundreds of years of Anglo irish history and the delicate balance that ended decades of bloody conflict boiled down to "they can tolerate our best efforts" 😂

They won't just swallow whatever we tell them to, that was why they fought for independence. This time round the Irish have the upper hand.

And besides, does NI really want to be in the UK single market and not in the EU single market? Aside from a few headbanging orangemen I think most in NI are perfectly happy with checks on the Irish Sea over checks on the Irish border.

Even the British government thinks that is the case when they stated that NI enjoys a favoured position of being both in the EU single market *and* in the UK single market! Let's leave aside the fact that privalge was once enjoyed by the entire UK.

And right now, NI is the best performing UK nation. It's economy like France, like Germany, like Italy, has grown since 2019 unike the rest of the UK which is still below where it was in 2019. Must be the weather.

I notice you totally swerved the post I did highlighting the data from world bank showing the latest figures. Well here it is again. 

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?end=2022&locations=FR

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?end=2022&locations=GB




U.K. GDP is about $129 billion higher than France. 



U.K. GDP is about $65 billion higher than France. 



U.K. GDP is about $165 billion higher than France.






U.K. GDP is about $288 billion higher than France.



So please tell me when France is doing better than the U.K.? 
They caught up slightly during Covid, but didn't pass us then as I said, that was in 2016.

[Nick]

You yourself said the Tijuana border required a checkpoints.

How does this compare to the current border?


Now given there are over 175 road crossing points, how is this going to work?

What *might* work would be a system of advance filing, rfid packaging, scanning, trusted trader etc operating at the sea crossing.

So. Why won't you consider using your Tijuana magic there?

No I didn't, I said I got out of the car and had to pass immigration, this was separate to the main crossing. The driver drove through the fast pass lane and collected me on the other side. Only vehicles with incorrect driver or too many heat signatures get stopped. 

As for your 175 crossings, the vast majority are unsuitable for artics and any seen would be stopped. You would use a MSR system where trucks had to cross, back roads would have the usual dodgy goings on like on every minor crossing in the world, including the EU. So let's not try and suggest a problem on TIOI would be an isolated issue within the EU. Let's face it, most opiates come from Afghanistan through Central Europe IE Germany, Scandinavia or the Balkans. The EU doesn't seem to be able to plug those holes in it's border so why would they be bothered about what sneaks through bandit country?

[BeElBeeBub]

..... I reckon they can just tolerate our best efforts to do whats right even if the remoaners and the EU have a problem with it .
Tech would cover most of it ,the rest we can deal with as it happens , its not a big problem for anyone but the EU and remoaners

And there we have it. The complexities of hundreds of years of Anglo irish history and the delicate balance that ended decades of bloody conflict boiled down to "they can tolerate our best efforts" 😂

They won't just swallow whatever we tell them to, that was why they fought for independence. This time round the Irish have the upper hand. 

And besides, does NI really want to be in the UK single market and not in the EU single market? Aside from a few headbanging orangemen I think most in NI are perfectly happy with checks on the Irish Sea over checks on the Irish border. 

Even the British government thinks that is the case when they stated that NI enjoys a favoured position of being both in the EU single market *and* in the UK single market! Let's leave aside the fact that privalge was once enjoyed by the entire UK. 

And right now, NI is the best performing UK nation. It's economy like France, like Germany, like Italy, has grown since 2019 unike the rest of the UK which is still below where it was in 2019. Must be the weather. 

[Streetwalker]

Different tax and excise regimes are less of a problem. To some extent it is just tolerated.

Well given the nature of the Irish border ,the GFA the CTA and Paddy's and Micks coping the hump over what church they don't go to on a Sunday I reckon they can just tolerate our best efforts to do whats right even if the remoaners and the EU have a problem with it . 
Tech would cover most of it ,the rest we can deal with as it happens , its not a big problem for anyone but the EU and remoaners 

[papasmurf]

And it will get even worse.

In Pappy's world the sun rises, thinks why the F@@@ am I bothering, the miserable sod will only complain and quickly sets again.

Borchester it is nothing to do with my World. On FreeView on nearly night basis is a program dedicated to customs, immigration and border crossings. With the USA Southern Border showing the long delays and queues.

Border Security: America's Front Line on CBS Reality

[Borchester]

Things have changed now, for the worse.

And it will get even worse.

In Pappy's world the sun rises, thinks why the F@@@ am I bothering, the miserable sod will only complain and quickly sets again.

[BeElBeeBub]

The other answer is that nothing is simple in BeElBeeBub's world

And the real world. Almost every single expert in coras border processes said the "tech solutions" approach was bollocks. 

No brexiter has ever shown an invisible tech border. 
They tried Switzerland, even posing in front of the border posts. 

They tried the US Canadian border, again ignoring the queues and border posts.

And now Nick is suggesting the Tijuana border which he self described as having checkpoints. 

I would have thought "no hard border on the island or Ireland" was simple enough for brexiter but apparently it's too complicated. 

But I shouldn't be surprised. Brexit, at itvs core, was a yearning for simple tiles, a reaction against the messy compromises and shades of grey the real world required. It was seductively simple. Just cut red tape, make Britain great again. 

No actual engagement with the crucial question of *how* to do it, just pub bore level "it's simple really...." crap usually stemming from a complete misunderstanding of the situation. 

[BeElBeeBub]

And like I've said, checks can be done in advance, paperwork submitted and then a seamless movement over a border using Tijuana style techniques.

You yourself said the Tijuana border required a checkpoints.

How does this compare to the current border? 


Now given there are over 175 road crossing points, how is this going to work?

What *might* work would be a system of advance filing, rfid packaging, scanning, trusted trader etc operating at the sea crossing. 

So. Why won't you consider using your Tijuana magic there? 

[papasmurf]

 This was back in 2002 

Things have changed now, for the worse.