The Windsor Framework, getting Brexit undone

[papasmurf]

Nor does Pappy, poor old bugger

I do understand it, which is why I posted the link which you have not read.

Another link on the subject, more at link:-

Post-Brexit import checks on food delayed again - BBC News

3 August
Post-Brexit checks on fresh farm produce coming to the UK from the EU have been delayed again, the BBC understands.

New import controls on EU food products had been due to begin in October.
There is concern that the extra checks on imported goods will push up prices and fuel inflation.
The delay, which was first reported by the Financial Times, will give companies and port operators more time to prepare for these changes.
UK food producers have argued that it gives a free pass to continental rivals, while all fresh food exports from the UK to the European Union face checks.
Health certification on imports of "medium-risk" products were due to start in October with physical checks beginning in January 2024.
However, the Cold Chain Federation welcomed news of the delay.
"UK food retailers, hospitality businesses and consumers were in line for major disruption because many EU food-producing businesses supplying into the UK are not ready for the new requirements," said Shane Brennan, the chief executive of the Cold Chain Federation.

[papasmurf]

Don't understand what you're saying there sorry.

It is clear enough, the government has supposed to have implemented import inspections on goods and food coming in from the EU.  They keep delaying doing so. But eventually they will have to which will cause delays and increase cost and inflation.
(The government has still not put in the infrastructure or staff to do it.)
In the mean time food is being imported with NO inspections which is dangerous.

[Borchester]

Don't understand what you're saying there sorry.

Nor does Pappy, poor old bugger

[Nick]

The Tory government has kicked implementing the checks and inspection down the road yet again. So when the HAVE to implement those, with no staff or infrastructure at port and airports to carry them out damage caused by Brexit will escalate again.

UK set to delay post-Brexit border food checks amid inflation worries – POLITICO

Don't understand what you're saying there sorry. 

[Streetwalker]

Yes time will tell.

And yes, the UK is still "under the thumb" of the EU despite Brexit.

This is the reality of living next to a huge block.
Mexico and Canada (and to some extent the world) experience this by being next door to the US. It's just so big it dominates.

Brexiters had some sort of fantasy that, by leaving the EU, they could decouple the UK from the effects of the EUvs decisions.

In reality it has just diminished the UK's ability to influence those decisions.

EU decisions on everything from food standards, financial regulation, product regulation, energy, environment etc will all affect us, sometimes more so than if we were members, and there is little we can do about it.

How could it be anything but that way? Even if we did the hardest of hard Brexits, our products still have to be sold there, our banks still have to trade there, our food will still come from there, our planes will still have to fly there.

And a note about the fishermen. Unfortunately they listened to idiots. They failed to take account of the fact our waters don't really contain any of the fish the UK likes to eat. They failed to take account of the fact that they were fishing in European waters to catch fish to sell to European markets.

So we haven't left then ?

The difference between other trade blocks around the world is that there is no monatary union nor political fedralisation . 

I think most of us were OK with the status quo of allowing foriegn fishing boats into British waters under British rules as was the case in the past . It was the EEC  that (with that tosser Heath)  turned British waters into European waters . Regaining control of our waters was the prime goal ,fishing quotas was a side show that just gave the government some brownie points and the fishing fleet supporting public a chance to get the flags out .

[papasmurf]

 Until then Brexit is a non-entity.

The Tory government has kicked implementing the checks and inspection down the road yet again. So when the HAVE to implement those, with no staff or infrastructure at port and airports to carry them out damage caused by Brexit will escalate again.

UK set to delay post-Brexit border food checks amid inflation worries – POLITICO

[Nick]

"outstripping" is doing a lot of heavy lifting there.

The fact is all these things are cumulative. The hangover from the pandemic takes a few points off some sectors of the economy, the Ukraine war takes a few more of others, Brexit a few points of yet another area.  Sometimes those effects overlap and hit an industry or secotr really hard, other times they don't an a area is untouched. I bet defense companies are gaining more FROM the war than they lose from Brexit or the pandemic. Likewise some medical sectors probably bad a good pandemic. Some people will benefit from "reshoring" due to Brexit just as others will lose from European firms reshoring their operations.

Brexit is just another headwind the UK has to endure along with covid, climate change, Ukraine, energy and every other thing. Whilst Brexit also effects European econimies, the balance is against us.

One thing I think we can both agree on is that it certainly hasn't improved the quality of our governance.

I agree, but would caveat that with putting Brexit way lower on the burden list than the Covid hangover and Putins crusade. 
I do however commend you on being the only Remainers on here that acknowledges that, for the rest it's carte blanch Brexit is 100% to Blair for the economic stagnation we face: even though we are doing better than a lot of the major EU countries. 
Putin will for sure suffer a piece of lead in his ear, Covid will subside, then we will see. Until then Brexit is a non-entity. 

[Nick]

Yes time will tell.

And yes, the UK is still "under the thumb" of the EU despite Brexit.

This is the reality of living next to a huge block.
Mexico and Canada (and to some extent the world) experience this by being next door to the US. It's just so big it dominates.

Brexiters had some sort of fantasy that, by leaving the EU, they could decouple the UK from the effects of the EUvs decisions.

In reality it has just diminished the UK's ability to influence those decisions.

EU decisions on everything from food standards, financial regulation, product regulation, energy, environment etc will all affect us, sometimes more so than if we were members, and there is little we can do about it.

How could it be anything but that way? Even if we did the hardest of hard Brexits, our products still have to be sold there, our banks still have to trade there, our food will still come from there, our planes will still have to fly there.

And a note about the fishermen. Unfortunately they listened to idiots. They failed to take account of the fact our waters don't really contain any of the fish the UK likes to eat. They failed to take account of the fact that they were fishing in European waters to catch fish to sell to European markets.

The U.K. has tighter regulations on food standards, financial regulations etc than the EU, the EU has certain deliberate anomalies designed to force others to comply. Things that are of no benefit, just F@@@ factors, and that's how they operate, and I'll explain.

I produce a product that has no real patent, hundreds of other companies produce the exact same product.  I go to the patent office and register this product but with an additional feature that doesn't really do anything, let's say it has an aperture of 21mm. I then meet an EU representative at the lobby lounge in Brussels and explain with a large brown envelope how this 21mm aperture is key to the safety of these devises. The EU subsequently brings in a rule that all XYZ must have an aperture of 21mm, guess what? I've got the 21mm aperture copyrighted and the other manufacturers can no longer sell to the EU. This is how the EU operates and this is how their standards come about, that is why the U.K. has to comply with standards that are actually lower than our own. 

[BeElBeeBub]

Im of the opinion that we can only gauge how well or badly leaving the EU has effected us when we have in fact left and sufficient time has passed to give a fair evaluation .
Remainers of course point out that we have left and this and that isn't working while ignoring the possibilities of when we have truely left.  .
Section 29 of the European Union act impeeds our future legistlation and keeps us bound to Brussels with over 2,400 EU laws still applied to the UK with trade unions ,some tories and opposition parties campaigning to retain these laws as if we had never left .

Financial services are still governed under EU law , EU fishing fleets still exploit British waters , ECJ  judgments are still binding on EU retained law and the same court determines the rights of EU citizens in the UK.

And of course we still have the Windsor framework which sees part of the United Kingdom being held ransom for access to European markets

In short there is much to do before we can say we have left  ,kicking the Windsor framework into the long grass would be a start .

Yes time will tell. 

And yes, the UK is still "under the thumb" of the EU despite Brexit. 

This is the reality of living next to a huge block. 
Mexico and Canada (and to some extent the world) experience this by being next door to the US. It's just so big it dominates. 

Brexiters had some sort of fantasy that, by leaving the EU, they could decouple the UK from the effects of the EUvs decisions. 

In reality it has just diminished the UK's ability to influence those decisions.

EU decisions on everything from food standards, financial regulation, product regulation, energy, environment etc will all affect us, sometimes more so than if we were members, and there is little we can do about it. 

How could it be anything but that way? Even if we did the hardest of hard Brexits, our products still have to be sold there, our banks still have to trade there, our food will still come from there, our planes will still have to fly there.

And a note about the fishermen. Unfortunately they listened to idiots. They failed to take account of the fact our waters don't really contain any of the fish the UK likes to eat. They failed to take account of the fact that they were fishing in European waters to catch fish to sell to European markets.

[BeElBeeBub]

Even if we take Germany, how are we outstripping them if Brexit is causing so much hardship? The fact is Brexit cannot be blamed on any of the economic instability at the moment. The Covid lag and Putin are impacting far too much to allow anything else to show.

"outstripping" is doing a lot of heavy lifting there. 

The fact is all these things are cumulative. The hangover from the pandemic takes a few points off some sectors of the economy, the Ukraine war takes a few more of others, Brexit a few points of yet another area.  Sometimes those effects overlap and hit an industry or secotr really hard, other times they don't an a area is untouched. I bet defense companies are gaining more FROM the war than they lose from Brexit or the pandemic. Likewise some medical sectors probably bad a good pandemic. Some people will benefit from "reshoring" due to Brexit just as others will lose from European firms reshoring their operations. 

Brexit is just another headwind the UK has to endure along with covid, climate change, Ukraine, energy and every other thing. Whilst Brexit also effects European econimies, the balance is against us.

One thing I think we can both agree on is that it certainly hasn't improved the quality of our governance. 

[Streetwalker]

At the moment we're at the stage where Brexit is undoing itself. As time passes we can still see no tangible benefits from leaving the EU and quite a few disadvantages. These facts are becoming increasingly apparent to more and more people.

I'm all for Britain rejoining the EU but that would have to be done with the support of the majority of the population, either through a referendum or through electing a government which supports rejoining.

The 'will of the people' has been carried out, we've left the EU. But a line has been drawn under the 2016 result and the will of the people might be different in 5 years time.

Im of the opinion that we can only gauge how well or badly leaving the EU has effected us when we have in fact left and sufficient time has passed to give a fair evaluation . 
Remainers of course point out that we have left and this and that isn't working while ignoring the possibilities of when we have truely left.  .
Section 29 of the European Union act impeeds our future legistlation and keeps us bound to Brussels with over 2,400 EU laws still applied to the UK with trade unions ,some tories and opposition parties campaigning to retain these laws as if we had never left .

Financial services are still governed under EU law , EU fishing fleets still exploit British waters , ECJ  judgments are still binding on EU retained law and the same court determines the rights of EU citizens in the UK.

And of course we still have the Windsor framework which sees part of the United Kingdom being held ransom for access to European markets 

In short there is much to do before we can say we have left  ,kicking the Windsor framework into the long grass would be a start .

[Nick]

France is a reasonable comparison with the UK and the WB do offer an easy to visualise dataset.

However, you took one data point from one source (GDP FRvsUK from WB) and drew you conclusion from that with little context.  From that data you can see FR and UK have been bumping along together, with the UK slightly above and the gap varying up and down over time.


That is the basis for you claiming the UK is doing better that France. As an aside, there is something funky ging on with the WB data, the GDP growth charts don't match the GDP charts, ie the chart above shows a fall in GDP for UK and FR in 2022, but the GDP growth chart only shows positive growth?
It is notable you rebuttal isn't to address their data but simply to dismiss it on the rather spurious basis that "they aren't a financial institution". 

No it isn't.  It's a professional research organisation. They are certainly better qualified to research and interpret data than you (or I) are.

Their report, which I linked to and based my comments on drew on the OECD, IMF and ONS.

Firstly, it showed the real GDP growth from 2 sources (OECD and ONS) which showed the UK is not doing better than France, but is berating Germany.

then it looks at the predictions from two sources, IMF and OECD

though the numbers vary slightly as you would expect for two different forecasts , both are predicting the UK to be behind the Eurozone and France thouhg (again) beating Germany.

Given the above 3 graphs it is hard to conclude the UK is doing better than France - although it is fair to say it is doing better than Germany.

Even if we take Germany, how are we outstripping them if Brexit is causing so much hardship? The fact is Brexit cannot be blamed on any of the economic instability at the moment. The Covid lag and Putin are impacting far too much to allow anything else to show. 

[BeElBeeBub]

No, we are not just bumping along with France, we are opening up a gap with France. And the reason I chose France is because they are the closest in terms of GDP, and the country being levelled as doing better than us: they're not.
The reason I chose the world bank is because they have an overview of what's going on

France is a reasonable comparison with the UK and the WB do offer an easy to visualise dataset.

However, you took one data point from one source (GDP FRvsUK from WB) and drew you conclusion from that with little context.  From that data you can see FR and UK have been bumping along together, with the UK slightly above and the gap varying up and down over time.

 
That is the basis for you claiming the UK is doing better that France. As an aside, there is something funky ging on with the WB data, the GDP growth charts don't match the GDP charts, ie the chart above shows a fall in GDP for UK and FR in 2022, but the GDP growth chart only shows positive growth? 

,The HoC's library isn't a financial institute.

It is notable you rebuttal isn't to address their data but simply to dismiss it on the rather spurious basis that "they aren't a financial institution".   

No it isn't.  It's a professional research organisation. They are certainly better qualified to research and interpret data than you (or I) are.

Their report, which I linked to and based my comments on drew on the OECD, IMF and ONS. 

Firstly, it showed the real GDP growth from 2 sources (OECD and ONS) which showed the UK is not doing better than France, but is berating Germany.

then it looks at the predictions from two sources, IMF and OECD
 
though the numbers vary slightly as you would expect for two different forecasts , both are predicting the UK to be behind the Eurozone and France thouhg (again) beating Germany.

Given the above 3 graphs it is hard to conclude the UK is doing better than France - although it is fair to say it is doing better than Germany.

[papasmurf]

No it's not.

Nick I am NOT responsible for your cognitive dissonance. 
Just a sample.

The impact of Brexit on the UK economy: Reviewing the evidence | CEPR

[HDQQ]

At the moment we're at the stage where Brexit is undoing itself. As time passes we can still see no tangible benefits from leaving the EU and quite a few disadvantages. These facts are becoming increasingly apparent to more and more people.

I'm all for Britain rejoining the EU but that would have to be done with the support of the majority of the population, either through a referendum or through electing a government which supports rejoining.

The 'will of the people' has been carried out, we've left the EU. But a line has been drawn under the 2016 result and the will of the people might be different in 5 years time.