Bring Back Boris?

[Scott777]

My position was always the same: it cannot (realistically) reduce it

But your argument shifted to saying we need immigration, so stop being disingenuous.

My reasoning for stating that the government can ot realistically reduce immigration is because the UK economy needs immigrants.
The second is not a different position, it is a clarification and explanation of the first position.

It's two different arguments.  Again, stop conflating the reduction of immigration with whether we need immigration.  As I said, you can reduce immigration, and still have some that we may need.  I have not said we don't need immigration, so yes you are disingenuously shifting the point from what I said about reducing it.  Reducing it does not mean having zero immigration.  So if you are ready to stop being so disingenuous, explain why we cannot realistically reduce immigration.

[Scott777]

There are about 1.5million unoccupied dwellings in E&W, a bit over 5% of the total stock, probably about the right % for "liquidity"

Not all unoccupied dwellings can be occupied, so they are irrelevant.

Regardless of demand, as the majority of dwellings are.bought with some form of mortgage, prices are dominated by the lending market.

This does not dominate prices any more than supply vs demand, so you are attempting to shift the point away from that.

Of course, the UK has been failing to build enough houses for years (see earlier comment about NIMBYism) so that doesn't help

To describe this as a failing is nonsense.  It's like saying someone hit you with a hammer, but it's your fault for having a flattened head because you failed to avoid the hammer.  Without mass immigration, there is no need to keep building, and no failing.

[BeElBeeBub]

It's mainstream economics that you need labour for an economy to thrive. Can you find any serious economists who says a shrinking labour pool is good for an economy?

It is mainstream economic theory that your ratio of workers to non workers is important, if you have too few workers for the dependent population your economy struggles. Again, can you find a mainstream Economist who thinks reducing the ratio is a good idea?

It is an unarguable fact that the UK "native" population is aging and the low birthrate over the last 4 decades means our worker/non worker ratio is getting worse. 

The same shift also means our labour pool is getting more constrained.

Our choice is to either make do with a shrinking local labour pool or import labour.

The economic consequences of dealing with a shrinking labour pool and the political fallout of that are so unpaletteable even parties who are massively anti immigrant won't admit to their base the trade off (yes.we can reduce.immigranta but you'll have worse services and have to pay more tax).

So pretty much any party has go for option b) import labour

So they are left *saying* they will cut immigration whilst not actually reducing immigration least they screw the economy.

[BeElBeeBub]

It's only your opinion that every economist thinks so.  You don't know that as fact.  You just read it in a paper or saw it on TV.  You didn't ask every economist.

You keep shifting your argument because you cannot justify your opinion.  You began by saying immigration can't be reduced.  Then you shifted to: it cannot (realistically) reduce immigration.  Now it's: UK economy needs immigration.  Theses are all different statements.  We probably do need some immigration.  About 5% might do the trick.  That does not exclude the realistic ability to reduce it by 95%.  Please do make up your mind what you are saying.

Shifting my argument?!  From you?! HA!😂😂🤣🤣😂

My position was always the same: it cannot (realistically) reduce it

My first statement was (I suspect disingenuously) misinterpretated by you. As was.my statement that the government can do anything - only a moron would assume I meant it could turn off the sun or something.

My reasoning for stating that the government can ot realistically reduce immigration is because the UK economy needs immigrants.

The second is not a different position, it is a clarification and explanation of the first position.

Because you have problem with comprehension I repeatedly have to clarify and explain, in small words, my position - to which you run off shouting "look how his position has changed!"

It hasn't changed, I've just (fruitlessly) clarified repeatedly 

[BeElBeeBub]

Yeah, I wonder if population rise (purely from mass immigration) has anything to do with demand and therefore house price.  Hmmmm.  😉

Enough dwellings, but if the dwellings are exactly the correct number to accommodate the population, there is still a problem.  Imagine for a moment every person has a home, except 1 person, and there is only 1 home available.  That person has to find that home, move there, wherever it may be, which may be nowhere near were they work, it has to be the right price for them, the right size, etc, etc.  There needs to be more homes than people in order for people to find the right one, i.e supply needs to outweigh demand.

Additionally, as long as we have mass immigration, we will always need more homes.

There are about 1.5million unoccupied dwellings in E&W, a bit over 5% of the total stock, probably about the right % for "liquidity"

Regardless of demand, as the majority of dwellings are.bought with some form of mortgage, prices are dominated by the lending market.

The more lenders are willing to lend, the higher prices can soar.

Anecdotally, alot of complaints about "outsiders" driving up local house prices tend be about immigrants from other parts of the UK, in my area people selling up in London or Oxford can massively outbid locals.

Of course, the UK has been failing to build enough houses for years (see earlier comment about NIMBYism) so that doesn't help

[Scott777]

There is a lack of affordable housing. Realistically there are enough dwellings for everyone but they are unevenly distributed.

Yeah, I wonder if population rise (purely from mass immigration) has anything to do with demand and therefore house price.  Hmmmm.  😉

Enough dwellings, but if the dwellings are exactly the correct number to accommodate the population, there is still a problem.  Imagine for a moment every person has a home, except 1 person, and there is only 1 home available.  That person has to find that home, move there, wherever it may be, which may be nowhere near were they work, it has to be the right price for them, the right size, etc, etc.  There needs to be more homes than people in order for people to find the right one, i.e. supply needs to outweigh demand.

Additionally, as long as we have mass immigration, we will always need more homes.

[Borchester]

Eff you Borchester yet more nastines from you I am 74 years old retired. Frankly it would make my day if someone engineered a Tory specific plague and rid the country of them. I hate Tories with a depth of hatred you really cannot comprehend.

Sorry Pappy, I forgot that you think that work is the ultimate 4 letter word

[Scott777]

Not *just* my opinion. Also the opinion of pretty much every economist.

Aside from the obvious societal needs (families, returning citizens etc) the UK economy needs immigration.

It's only your opinion that every economist thinks so.  You don't know that as fact.  You just read it in a paper or saw it on TV.  You didn't ask every economist.

You keep shifting your argument because you cannot justify your opinion.  You began by saying immigration can't be reduced.  Then you shifted to: it cannot (realistically) reduce immigration.  Now it's: UK economy needs immigration.  Theses are all different statements.  We probably do need some immigration.  About 5% might do the trick.  That does not exclude the realistic ability to reduce it by 95%.  Please do make up your mind what you are saying.

[papasmurf]

So we are exporting our unemployed? Good idea. I did the same thing when I was a youngster, saw how good things could be if you got off your arse and took up whatever opportunities were going and became a life long Tory as a result.

Nice to see that you think the same way Pappy

Eff you Borchester yet more nastines from you I am 74 years old retired. Frankly it would make my day if someone engineered a Tory specific plague and rid the country of them. I hate Tories with a depth of hatred you really cannot comprehend.

[Borchester]

Borchester yet more idiocy from you. All you do is Troll the forum and contribute eff all to debate.
In fact what is keeping local unemployment low and job vacancies high is young people because they can't find anywhere to live are going abroad to work.

So we are exporting our unemployed? Good idea. I did the same thing when I was a youngster, saw how good things could be if you got off your arse and took up whatever opportunities were going and became a life long Tory as a result.

Nice to see that you think the same way Pappy

[papasmurf]

Dunno. As you say, in a year or so millions will have died of want with starvation the only thing keeping the Cornish unemployment figures down. The removal of the untermensch will serve to decrease the left wing vote and thereby strengthen the Tory vote

Borchester yet more idiocy from you. All you do is Troll the forum and contribute eff all to debate.
In fact what is keeping local unemployment low and job vacancies high is young people because they can't find anywhere to live are going abroad to work.

[Borchester]

I know the same conditions don't apply. Currently peoples wages are being screwed down, (apart from a lucky few,) within the next year 700000 households are going to face having their mortgages rising by £400 a month. I can't see them voting Tory.

Dunno. As you say, in a year or so millions will have died of want with starvation the only thing keeping the Cornish unemployment figures down. The removal of the untermensch will serve to decrease the left wing vote and thereby strengthen the Tory vote

[papasmurf]

I'm not sure the same conditions apply - how can prices go up from here, especially if there are no buyers because the repayments are too high?

Inflation might help a bit, tho only if pay keeps up

I know the same conditions don't apply. Currently peoples wages are being screwed down, (apart from a lucky few,) within the next year 700000 households are going to face having their mortgages rising by £400 a month. I can't see them voting Tory.

[BeElBeeBub]

It was very scary BUT house prices rose so fast that I only had a tiny mortgage  in the end and house inflation covered the interest charges.

I'm not sure the same conditions apply - how can prices go up from here, especially if there are no buyers because the repayments are too high?

Inflation might help a bit, tho only if pay keeps up

[papasmurf]

Was it fun?  Looks like the equivalent rates are starting to hit that level.

It was very scary BUT house prices rose so fast that I only had a tiny mortgage  in the end and house inflation covered the interest charges.