More Boris lockdown breaches

[Scott777]

If a person was hit by a bus the death cerficate might go something like

1a) disease or condition leading directly to death: Intraperitoneal haemorrhage
1b) disease or condition, if any, leading directly to (1a): Ruptured liver
1c) disease or condition, if any, leading directly to (1a): Crush injuries due to RTA
2) Other significant conditions Contributing to death but not related to the disease or condition causing it: Covid may go here

The ONS would use 1C as the cause of death - being hit by a bus being a health condition.

Oh well, since you seem unable to answer a simple question, which of these are medical conditions, I'll have to help you out.  Only Covid is.  So following the guidelines you provided, would your example be counted as "due to Covid"?  Try to guess using the power of your mind.

"When we say that a death was 'due to' COVID-19, we mean that COVID-19 was the underlying cause of death, because it was either the only health condition mentioned on the death certificate".

[patman post]

Deaths FROM Covid are nowhere near the figures you're putting out. Deaths WITH Covid might be but there's a big difference.

I was working at LCY airport during the first Covid wave and was stopping at the Crown Plaza Docklands, next to the Nightingale Centre. Build to house 3000 Covid patients: at it's peak there was 32 patients in it, the expected deaths got nowhere near their calculations. It shows in the data.

There were also plans to turn ice rinks into makeshift mortuaries — and extra mortuary space was made and used.

Trench graves were dug in east London and south-east London, in response to high death rates and some religious requirements to bury bodies within 24 hours.

The Nightingale Hospitals were probably intentionally the more visible because they could be regarded as a positive, a hope, because the early warning signs had not been by government and treatment for Covid was hit-and-miss, and mass vaccination was still a way off.

Many activities, recommendations and schemes were hurriedly wheeled out (some, no doubt, in panic). Mistakes were made and people may still be held accountable. But overall, the way relevant authorities both reacted and led the response to Covid, saved thousands of lives in the UK. Unfortunately, over 200,000 deaths (and still counting) have been recorded to date with Covid as a cause. Until all inquiries are complete, I'm prepared to be guided by official figures...

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths

[BeElBeeBub]

Deaths FROM Covid are nowhere near the figures you're putting out. Deaths WITH Covid might be but there's a big difference.

I was working at LCY airport during the first Covid wave and was stopping at the Crown Plaza Docklands, next to the Nightingale Centre. Build to house 3000 Covid patients: at it's peak there was 32 patients in it, the expected deaths got nowhere near their calculations. It shows in the data.

Deaths *due to covid* E&W 2020 73,766
Deaths *due to covid* E&W 2021 67,350

Total - 141k for 2020 & 2021

The 2022 figures aren't finalised yet (iirc they usually are published June/July the following year, i.e. in a month or two).

Finger.in the air guess at 30k ish, in 2022.aybe less as the vaccines had really started to work generating immunity.

So we can say that at least 141k, and probably closer to 175k people died *due* to covid over the 3 years.

The figure for "involving" covid over 2020-2022 is a bit over 200k iirc

[BeElBeeBub]

That is not true, my sister has it in on DC, she had not tested positive for nearly 3 weeks. She is still counted as a Covid death.

I'm curious about this

(Sorry to hear about your sister by the way)

How do you know she was "counted as a COVID death" in the ONS "due to" count (she would have been counted in the "with COVID" count and also in the 28 day count)

Do the ONS contact the relatives of the deceased and tell them "oh by the way, we included your relative in these counts"?

Can you (did you?) ask using FoI or something?

It is entirely possible for someone to die of COVID even after they stop testing positive.

For example, kidney failure was common condition after an acute COVID infection.

If someone caught covid, was very ill, their kidneys failed and 6 weeks later (having cleared COVID from their system) they died from that kidney failure - that would be a death caused by COVID

[Unlucky4Sum]

That is not true, my sister has it in on DC, she had not tested positive for nearly 3 weeks. She is still counted as a Covid death.

So Nick lets do the maths:

Over 3 years 2 months (since Covid really hit there have been just over 200,000 deaths in England & Wales under the within 28 day system (Scotland and NI use different systems) but the figures are very convergent with the death cert numbers.  So the sum is ~ 221,000.
 
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths?areaType=overview&areaName=United%20Kingdom

Anyway it's an average of 173 a day in E&W and ~193 in the UK

Would some of those 193 be people that actually died of other causes?  Of course a few would so lets look at the likely number.

In the UK there are ~500,000 deaths a year from causes other than Covid.  That's ~ 1,400 a day.

And in those 3 years 2 months there's been 22,410,810 positive tested (incl 2nd and 3rd cases) from a mid span population of 67,026,292 .

ie an average of 19,387 a day, 542,822 per 28 days 

So an average of 1 in 123 people across that span would have been 'tested positive within 28 days'  and so you could argue of those 1,400 a day died of other causes ~ 11 might have been misclassified as Covid deaths.  IE just 13,100 out of that 221,000 might be misclassified

And that's to ignore that most of those 28 days would have been spent isolating so unlikely to have fallen under buses etc

So Nick at most you could argue that it's not 221,000 and only 208,000 have died of Covid in the UK



  

[Nick]

And my Uncle doesn't despite it being bleeding obvious that the infection that ran riot in the care home was Covid

So they cancel each other out on the stats

Your 35,000 assertion is still complete junk

Deaths FROM Covid are nowhere near the figures you're putting out. Deaths WITH Covid might be but there's a big difference.

I was working at LCY airport during the first Covid wave and was stopping at the Crown Plaza Docklands, next to the Nightingale Centre. Build to house 3000 Covid patients: at it's peak there was 32 patients in it, the expected deaths got nowhere near their calculations. It shows in the data.

[Unlucky4Sum]

That is not true, my sister has it in on DC, she had not tested positive for nearly 3 weeks. She is still counted as a Covid death.

And my Uncle doesn't despite it being bleeding obvious that the infection that ran riot in the care home was Covid

So they cancel each other out on the stats

Your 35,000 assertion is still complete junk

[Scott777]

That when you posted 'they could not have died from it.' you hadn't got a fucking clue

No, I was referring to the fact that Covid on the death cert DOES NOT mean they had an infection, and so therefore (in cases where there was no infection) they could not have died from Covid, and therefore the total figure CANNOT be an indication of deaths from Covid.

[Scott777]

I paraphrased so as not to confuse you, but apparently that had the opposite effect.


So an example, taken directly from the guidance

1a) Intraperitoneal haemorrhage
1b) Ruptured metastatic deposit in liver
1c) primary adenocarcinoma of ascending colon
2) Non-insulin dependent diabetes mellitus

This personndied of bleeding into the abdominal cavity when a tumor ruptured in their liver. Casue of death - cancer

Or

1a)  Bilateral pneumothoraces
1b) Multiple bronchopulmonary fistulae
1c) Extensive, cavitating pulmonary tuberculosis (smear and culture positive) 
2) Iron deficiency anaemia; ventilator associated pseudomonas pneumonia

This person died of TB.

Simple enough for you?

Throughout history there has been a need to understand what is killing people from cholera contaminating a pump, to poor hygiene, to tabacco use and asbestos exposure.

Death is often complex. Doctors and statisiticans know this. Death certificates, how they are laid out, how they are filled in are designed with this in mind.

The idea that we are miscounting the number of COVID deaths because all we are doing is a word search for the word "covid" appearing anywhere in the certificate shows a fundamental misunderstanding of how death certificates work.

You seem to be struggling to list which "medical conditions" are in your example death certificate.  I am not asking why they died.

[Scott777]

Maybe the ruptured liver would not have proved fatal has Covid not have been present...

Well maybe, but we are trying to establish whether the figures are reliable.

[Nick]

Nope

Only if Covid was the 'underlying cause'


https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transparencyandgovernance/freedomofinformationfoi/deathswherecovid19wasmentionedonthedeathcertificate

That is not true, my sister has it in on DC, she had not tested positive for nearly 3 weeks. She is still counted as a Covid death.

[Unlucky4Sum]

It doesn't matter the order or severity, if Covid was mentioned it was counted in the official Covid death count. That is the crux of the matter.

Nope

Only if Covid was the 'underlying cause'


https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transparencyandgovernance/freedomofinformationfoi/deathswherecovid19wasmentionedonthedeathcertificate

[Unlucky4Sum]

Not quite what I was saying.  If Covid on death certificates DOES NOT NECESSARILY mean they had an infection (prior to death), therefore it does not necessarily mean they died from Covid, therefore the ONS figures do not necessarily represent deaths involving Covid.  Therefore, The ONS figures known as Covid deaths CANNOT tell you anything about actual deaths caused by Covid. Feel free to say which part is not correct.  Be precise.

That when you posted 'they could not have died from it.' you hadn't got a fucking clue

[BeElBeeBub]

It doesn't matter the order or severity, if Covid was mentioned it was counted in the official Covid death count. That is the crux of the matter.

Again, this is a misunderstanding.

There were multiple "death counts"

The first, and most visible was the daily one - Matt Hancock would read it out every day.  That was a count of people who had died yesterday who also had a +be covid test in the last 28 days. It was an imprecise measure, because as has been endlessly pointed out it will count the asymptomatic crash victim with a positive test 27 days ago. It will also *miss* the 60yo who died on a ventilator 29 days after a.posotive test.  However imprecise it was, it's virtue was speed, which is very important in a fast moving pandemic  the results were only 24-48 hours out of date 


However the more definite count is done by analysing the death certificates. This can take a month or so to become available as death certificates take a while to file.  However because the certificate contains date on the underlying cause (the thing that kicked the whole train of events off) it is much more accurate.

You are incorrect in saying "if it was mentioned it was counted" (though that count did also.exist). The ONS were very explicit that the "due to" count *only* counted people where COVID was listed as the *cause* and not merely mentioned.

[BeElBeeBub]

Yeah, I just wanted a simple list of conditions, but you provide something else.  Can you provide any reference to "ruptured liver" as being a condition?  That's the only one you claim is a condition so far.

I paraphrased so as not to confuse you, but apparently that had the opposite effect.


So an example, taken directly from the guidance

1a) Intraperitoneal haemorrhage 
1b) Ruptured metastatic deposit in liver 
1c) primary adenocarcinoma of ascending colon 
2) Non-insulin dependent diabetes mellitus 

This personndied of bleeding into the abdominal cavity when a tumor ruptured in their liver. Casue of death - cancer

Or

1a)  Bilateral pneumothoraces
1b) Multiple bronchopulmonary fistulae
1c) Extensive, cavitating pulmonary tuberculosis (smear and culture positive) 
2) Iron deficiency anaemia; ventilator associated pseudomonas pneumonia

This person died of TB.

Simple enough for you?

Throughout history there has been a need to understand what is killing people from cholera contaminating a pump, to poor hygiene, to tabacco use and asbestos exposure.

Death is often complex. Doctors and statisiticans know this. Death certificates, how they are laid out, how they are filled in are designed with this in mind.

The idea that we are miscounting the number of COVID deaths because all we are doing is a word search for the word "covid" appearing anywhere in the certificate shows a fundamental misunderstanding of how death certificates work.