Woo youth vote or die, Matt Hancock tells Conservatives

[Unlucky4Sum]

You can.

My calculations are linear and ignore all outliers and thus involve a lot of unlikely suppositions, but that is stats for you.

I have taken the average of the last ten polls for the last 10 days of May 2023. These put the Tories on 28.1% and Labour on 44.1%

For a similar number of polls for the same period in December 2022, the Tories were on 25.2% and Labour 46.5%

So, the Tories have been gaining about 0.6% a month and Labour has been losing 0.5%

Thus, boom boom, by about November 2024 the Tories will have about 38% of the vote and the brothers and sisters a bit less, which will put the Conservatives back in number 10 and Sir Keir whoring around the Uxbridge Magistrates' Court for a few dock briefs

Ta but that's a bit selecting dates to suit your purpose.  Over the last year Labour's lead over the Tories has more than doubled and over the last 2 months it's been largely static with if anything Labour growing their lead slightly.

But if you're convinced you're right, make haste to a bookies, you can get 6:1 right now on a Conservative majority after the next Election   

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/government-after-the-next-general-election

[Borchester]

Can we see those calculations please?

On the YouGov polling  the Tories are slightly losing ground v Labour over the last 2 months.

Politico's polls survey  won't give the Tories any encouragement either

You can.

My calculations are linear and ignore all outliers and thus involve a lot of unlikely suppositions, but that is stats for you.

I have taken the average of the last ten polls for the last 10 days of May 2023. These put the Tories on 28.1% and Labour on 44.1%

For a similar number of polls for the same period in December 2022, the Tories were on 25.2% and Labour 46.5%

So, the Tories have been gaining about 0.6% a month and Labour has been losing 0.5%

Thus, boom boom, by about November 2024 the Tories will have about 38% of the vote and the brothers and sisters a bit less, which will put the Conservatives back in number 10 and Sir Keir whoring around the Uxbridge Magistrates' Court for a few dock briefs

[Unlucky4Sum]

Ah, you might have a bit of a problem with that Pappy.

According to my calculations, the Tories will have overtaken the Labour party by November 2024  . . .

Can we see those calculations please?

On the YouGov polling  the Tories are slightly losing ground v Labour over the last 2 months.

Politico's polls survey  won't give the Tories any encouragement either

[Borchester]

As long are the Tories are not in government I don't care.

Ah, you might have a bit of a problem with that Pappy.

According to my calculations, the Tories will have overtaken the Labour party by November 2024 and the resultant backlash from the Conservative working class will force your friends (whose idea of a day's work is to sign on with a cross once a a fortnight) into the world of, gulp, work.

What use they will be God only knows and He is probably not over keen to find out else He would have gotten the idle rubbish off its arse a long time ago, but the day is clearly coming

[papasmurf]

My fear/prediction is a messy result with no clear winner, and horse trading to get a government — probably with the LibDems holding the balance...

As long are the Tories are not in government I don't care.

[patman post]

25% of under 30's voted Tory... And

The tipping point - the age at which a voter is more likely to have voted Conservative than Labour - is now 39, down from 47 at the last election.

The trend of younger people remaining with their Left leaning views is up from 2019. It's not looking positive for the Tories despite Sunak being preferred over Starmer. And that's not due to Labour performing better, but people living with the reality of 13 years of Tory rule.

Weasel wording interpretations of opinion polls doesn't change the trend.

My fear/prediction is a messy result with no clear winner, and horse trading to get a government — probably with the LibDems holding the balance...

[papasmurf]

25% of under 30's voted Tory... And

The tipping point - the age at which a voter is more likely to have voted Conservative than Labour - is now 39, down from 47 at the last election.

Only 25% and where it that other nugget come from?

[Nick]

Nick young people did not vote Tory in any numbers. Labour are not beloved by me. No political party is.

25% of under 30's voted Tory... And

The tipping point - the age at which a voter is more likely to have voted Conservative than Labour - is now 39, down from 47 at the last election.

[Streetwalker]

It was once true that the older males got, the more reactionary they became and often more Conservative leaning.

Not quite the same for women, though those that fitted the Tory pattern could display greater Right Wing fervour than 50 and above males.

These days, Conservatives are no longer managing to get or retain the support of 30 and 40-year olds as they progress through life — probably due to not being able to amass much personal wealth and witnessing the dishonest and self serving behaviour of senior Tories...

All true Posty which means a way must be found for people to aquire wealth . Thatcher new home ownership was the way ,it was then and it is now . 

[papasmurf]

These days, Conservatives are no longer managing to get or retain the support of 30 and 40-year olds as they progress through life — probably due to not being able to amass much personal wealth and witnessing the dishonest and self serving behaviour of senior Tories...

Home ownership dropping from 73% to below 68% and still falling since of May 2010, having a dramatic effect on Tory support in those age groups.

[patman post]

It was once true that the older males got, the more reactionary they became and often more Conservative leaning. 

Not quite the same for women, though those that fitted the Tory pattern could display greater Right Wing fervour than 50 and above males.

These days, Conservatives are no longer managing to get or retain the support of 30 and 40-year olds as they progress through life — probably due to not being able to amass much personal wealth and witnessing the dishonest and self serving behaviour of senior Tories...

[papasmurf]

Of course there are always the odd kid who is 'special' . William Hauge seemed to regress with age though was probably seen by the tories as the one that got away .

"Special" is not the word I would use.

[Streetwalker]

The used to be loads of obnoxious young Tories:- 

Of course there are always the odd kid who is 'special' . William Hauge seemed to regress with age though was probably seen by the tories as the one that got away .

[Unlucky4Sum]

 . . ..Couldn't open the link but would guess its something like The Age Profile Of Conservative Voting Intention - Data - Onward (ukonward.com)
Its obvious the tories have a problem .They have ignored the young people but maybe the reason is not their fault . That lies with Tony Bliar . His non education ,non education , non education government that still keeps kids at school till they are 18 and for some in further education until their mid 20's meant the starting point of 'growing up' has been pushed back . Young people are under the influence of the Guardinista teachers for much longer ,university (every child should get the opportunity to be indocrinated ) means they are basically lost forever to the ideology  of the left .

So Hancock is just stating the bloody obvious though he is wrong in saying the tories should become more liberal.To counter the fact that young people are staying in education for much longer the conservative party has to give school leavers a kick start in life and give them the chance to become wealthy conservatives rather than poor socialists

The link is to the pdf of the full results of that YouGov survey.  It's also the 6th link on this page:  https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results 

 

[papasmurf]

Wasn't that always the case though ?

The used to be loads of obnoxious young Tories:-