This is why we shouldn't rush things...

Started by BeElBeeBub, February 10, 2020, 09:11:31 AM

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BeElBeeBub

Quote from: Nick post_id=27703 time=1591213759 user_id=73
The withdrawal agreement outlined exactly that, how we leave.

Can you outline the clauses that are persistent once we leave? And show the clause that makes it persistent, otherwise the agreement ends once we've withdraw


We have already withdrawn, we are no longer an EU member and the WA now applies hence the current transition period.



The transition period provisions contained in the WA are set to lapse at the end of 2020 unless extended as per the WA procedures.



The IP provisions do not lapse with the transition period provisions and continue until the art 18 process is used or the UK & EU agree a new treaty that supercedes the WA.

BeElBeeBub

Quote from: Baff post_id=27708 time=1591215941 user_id=121
Those parts of it which are non binding are non binding.

Which happens to be most of it.



Those parts which are bindng are bindng.

The parts we have previously identified as such.



If the treaty we singed says it is non binding, then it is non bindng. By agreement.

The entire WA is binding, the IP is binding, the only way it ends is via the art 18 process for NI deciding not to continue with alignment.  That cannot happen until 2022 at the earliest.



A treaty that is non-binding isn't a treaty.



The only prospect for a border in the Irish sea not occuring as per the WA in Jan 2021 is if the UKg

 & EU agree an extension of the transition or a trade agreement *beyond* what the PD envisages.

Baff

Quote from: BeElBeeBub post_id=27440 time=1591090646 user_id=88
nope, I'm pointing out what the UK has signed up to in an international treaty.



Some were under the impression the articles of the Irish protocol were optional because they were part of the non-binding political declaration.

Those parts of it which are non binding are non binding.

Which happens to be most of it.



Those parts which are bindng are bindng.

The parts we have previously identified as such.



If the treaty we singed says it is non binding, then it is non bindng. By agreement.

Nick

Quote from: BeElBeeBub post_id=27579 time=1591165909 user_id=88
Stuff that is in the political declaration is optional. Neither the UK or the EU is bound by it.



Stuff that is in the Withdrawal Agreement is binding.



If the Irish Protocol was part of the PD it would be optional.



But it is not. It is part of the WA therefore is not optional.


The withdrawal agreement outlined exactly that, how we leave.

Can you outline the clauses that are persistent once we leave? And show the clause that makes it persistent, otherwise the agreement ends once we've withdraw
I can explain it to you, but I can't understand it for you.

BeElBeeBub

Quote from: Nick post_id=27543 time=1591125290 user_id=73
If they are non binding then they are optional?

Stuff that is in the political declaration is optional. Neither the UK or the EU is bound by it.



Stuff that is in the Withdrawal Agreement is binding.



If the Irish Protocol was part of the PD it would be optional.



But it is not. It is part of the WA therefore is not optional.

Nick

Quote from: BeElBeeBub post_id=27440 time=1591090646 user_id=88
nope, I'm pointing out what the UK has signed up to in an international treaty.



Some were under the impression the articles of the Irish protocol were optional because they were part of the non-binding political declaration.


If they are non binding then they are optional?
I can explain it to you, but I can't understand it for you.

BeElBeeBub

Quote from: Nick post_id=27433 time=1591087728 user_id=73
Again, you seem to think the EU are running the show, they are not.


nope, I'm pointing out what the UK has signed up to in an international treaty.



Some were under the impression the articles of the Irish protocol were optional because they were part of the non-binding political declaration.

Nick

Quote from: BeElBeeBub post_id=27376 time=1591035809 user_id=88
the protocol is concerned with preventing any border between NI and RoI. To that end it effectively puts the border between NI and GB.



Both of those are part of the UK. The UK is responsible for the customs procedures of any goods entering NI from anywhere including GB.



RoI has zero responsibility for that.

nope 100% incorrect



Livestock certification will still be needed (there may be a wrinkle with that as well)



But you will need paperwork for any goods you import into NI, from China, The US, France or GB



The only difference is there will certain exemptions available for goods from GB that are not available to goods from elsewhere.  If you wish to avail yourself of those exemptions you will need paperwork to prove that and it may be checked.



All goods are subject to checks *unless* deemed not as risk.  If the goods class has not been specifically called out as "not at risk" then tariffs will apply.



If you can subsequently prove the goods were not exported to RoI you can claim back the tariffs paid (via more paperwork) from the UK government





That is what is written in the IP

there is an exception for goods in a person's baggage and non-commercial consignments eg sending your auntie a Christmas present of an iPad.



However if you are moving shoes or copper pipe or TV's from your warehouse in Manchester to one of your shops in Belfast, you will have to pay tariffs (which you could potentially claim back) and do the paperwork.



The point is that in my hypothetical van full of tools I may need to prove the dozen drills or 500 boxes of screws are actually my tools and not goods

it doesn't matter how many times you tell yourself that, the IP says that duties are payable on goods at risk and all goods are "at risk" unless excluded by the JC.



It is very deliberately worded to avoid saying that NI is in the EU CU/SM but the effect of it's provisions is that NI is, in practical terms, in the CU/SM.

if you select the "Withdrawal Agreement" on that site, you will find that at around page 295 of the Withdrawal Agreement there is a section "Irish Protocol" that is identical to the document you linked to.



You will not find it at all in the Political decoration, go on download it and search for "irish Protocol", it's only 25 or so pages.



The Irish Protocol is part of the Withdrawal Agreement



It's in the middle of the thing.  I don't know how you can describe a section with over a dozen articles embedded in an international treaty as not part of the treaty.





The EU vastly preferred Johnson's version. It is much closer to their initial position and does away with GB being in the CU/SM along with NI that they really didn't want to grant.



Here is Barnier in 2018 saying the EU didn't want to extend the Irish Backstop to the entire UK



https://ec.europa.eu/ireland/news/our-backstop-cannot-be-extended-to-the-whole-uk-michel-barnier_en">https://ec.europa.eu/ireland/news/our-b ... barnier_en">https://ec.europa.eu/ireland/news/our-backstop-cannot-be-extended-to-the-whole-uk-michel-barnier_en



Here is the relevent portion







As you can see the EU's original proposal was that EU tariffs and regulations apply to NI but not to GB; hence an border in the Irish sea.



May's deal extended that arrangement to the entire UK (which the EU was very reluctant to do)



Johnson's brilliant negotiations simply moved back to the original EU template.



And you bought it




Again, you seem to think the EU are running the show, they are not.
I can explain it to you, but I can't understand it for you.

Baff

Mays' negotiation, isn't the one we went with.

Boris's is.



There is no border between NI and GB.

That has not been in the agreement since Boris Johnson took over the Conservative party and instantly changed it.

That is the very first thing he did when he became PM.



May twice tried to pass that in parliament and famously failed both times resulting in her removal from office.





The tools in your van are deemed not at risk of being live animals or exports to the EU.

I think you can take that as a given.

BeElBeeBub

Quote from: Baff post_id=27330 time=1591016234 user_id=121
@BoEBeeBub

No.

The whole point of the Irish Protocol is not that the irish border is sole the responsibility of the UK.

The UK is responsible for one side of the border, S Ireland the other.

And the protocol is explicit about this.
the protocol is concerned with preventing any border between NI and RoI. To that end it effectively puts the border between NI and GB.



Both of those are part of the UK. The UK is responsible for the customs procedures of any goods entering NI from anywhere including GB.



RoI has zero responsibility for that.
Quote
I don't think S Ireland were ready for us to take over their country again just yet.







The EU has no business in the UK.

We are not EU members.



Their wish to cause us disruption and to poltically agitate Northern ireland is not to be pandered to.

No reason to give them a diplomatic mission to make it easier for them to f**k us around.



After transistion ends....

You can get in your van and drive to N Ireland too.

You will only need paperwork if you are exporting livestock in it.

You will only need to pay tariffs if you are exporting goods to S Ireland.
nope 100% incorrect



Livestock certification will still be needed (there may be a wrinkle with that as well)



But you will need paperwork for any goods you import into NI, from China, The US, France or GB



The only difference is there will certain exemptions available for goods from GB that are not available to goods from elsewhere.  If you wish to avail yourself of those exemptions you will need paperwork to prove that and it may be checked.



All goods are subject to checks *unless* deemed not as risk.  If the goods class has not been specifically called out as "not at risk" then tariffs will apply.



If you can subsequently prove the goods were not exported to RoI you can claim back the tariffs paid (via more paperwork) from the UK government





That is what is written in the IP
Quote




NI remains inside the UK Single Market and Customs Union.

There are no tariffs to pay and no paperwork will be required for you and your van full of tools to travel from Great Britian to Northern irleand.
there is an exception for goods in a person's baggage and non-commercial consignments eg sending your auntie a Christmas present of an iPad.



However if you are moving shoes or copper pipe or TV's from your warehouse in Manchester to one of your shops in Belfast, you will have to pay tariffs (which you could potentially claim back) and do the paperwork.



The point is that in my hypothetical van full of tools I may need to prove the dozen drills or 500 boxes of screws are actually my tools and not goods
Quote
Boris got rid of the backstop when he renegotiated the WA. NI is not an EU customs zone.

There is no border in the Irish Sea.
it doesn't matter how many times you tell yourself that, the IP says that duties are payable on goods at risk and all goods are "at risk" unless excluded by the JC.



It is very deliberately worded to avoid saying that NI is in the EU CU/SM but the effect of it's provisions is that NI is, in practical terms, in the CU/SM.
Quote


Your provided link is to the Withdrawal Agreement and the Polical Declaration.

The one I have been referring you to is "The Irish Protoocol".



You can find it either on the EU site or the UK Gov site.



https://ec.europa.eu/info/european-union-and-united-kingdom-forging-new-partnership/eu-uk-withdrawal-agreement/protocol-ireland-and-northern-ireland_en">https://ec.europa.eu/info/european-unio ... ireland_en">https://ec.europa.eu/info/european-union-and-united-kingdom-forging-new-partnership/eu-uk-withdrawal-agreement/protocol-ireland-and-northern-ireland_en

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-uks-approach-to-the-northern-ireland-protocol">https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... d-protocol">https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-uks-approach-to-the-northern-ireland-protocol









There is only one land border in the UK. It is between N and S ireland.

This remains unchanged.

All of our borders remain the same. Leaving the EU treaty does not mean we have to grant them our territory.


if you select the "Withdrawal Agreement" on that site, you will find that at around page 295 of the Withdrawal Agreement there is a section "Irish Protocol" that is identical to the document you linked to.



You will not find it at all in the Political decoration, go on download it and search for "irish Protocol", it's only 25 or so pages.



The Irish Protocol is part of the Withdrawal Agreement



It's in the middle of the thing.  I don't know how you can describe a section with over a dozen articles embedded in an international treaty as not part of the treaty.


Quote


Obviously the EU far preferred Mrs Mays' negotiation than Boris's deal.

But this country wouldn't accept it and it takes two to tango.

The EU vastly preferred Johnson's version. It is much closer to their initial position and does away with GB being in the CU/SM along with NI that they really didn't want to grant.



Here is Barnier in 2018 saying the EU didn't want to extend the Irish Backstop to the entire UK



https://ec.europa.eu/ireland/news/our-backstop-cannot-be-extended-to-the-whole-uk-michel-barnier_en">https://ec.europa.eu/ireland/news/our-b ... barnier_en">https://ec.europa.eu/ireland/news/our-backstop-cannot-be-extended-to-the-whole-uk-michel-barnier_en



Here is the relevent portion


Quote... [The EU's proposed NI only backstop] provides specific solutions to the unique situation of Northern Ireland.



The UK is taking a different angle, however. It is looking for a UK-wide solution.



Let me be clear: our backstop cannot be extended to the whole UK.



Why? Because it has been designed for the specific situation of Northern Ireland.



What does it do?



On customs, Northern Ireland would form part of our customs territory. What is feasible with a territory the size of Northern Ireland is not necessarily feasible with the whole UK.



On regulatory alignment, we have been pragmatic and developed the least disruptive system for citizens and businesses on both sides....


As you can see the EU's original proposal was that EU tariffs and regulations apply to NI but not to GB; hence an border in the Irish sea.



May's deal extended that arrangement to the entire UK (which the EU was very reluctant to do)



Johnson's brilliant negotiations simply moved back to the original EU template.



And you bought it

Baff

@BoEBeeBub

No.

The whole point of the Irish Protocol is not that the irish border is sole the responsibility of the UK.

The UK is responsible for one side of the border, S Ireland the other.

And the protocol is explicit about this.



I don't think S Ireland were ready for us to take over their country again just yet.







The EU has no business in the UK.

We are not EU members.



Their wish to cause us disruption and to poltically agitate Northern ireland is not to be pandered to.

No reason to give them a diplomatic mission to make it easier for them to F@@@ us around.



After transistion ends....

You can get in your van and drive to N Ireland too.

You will only need paperwork if you are exporting livestock in it.

You will only need to pay tariffs if you are exporting goods to S Ireland.

NI remains inside the UK Single Market and Customs Union.

There are no tariffs to pay and no paperwork will be required for you and your van full of tools to travel from Great Britian to Northern irleand.



Boris got rid of the backstop when he renegotiated the WA. NI is not an EU customs zone.

There is no border in the Irish Sea.







Your provided link is to the Withdrawal Agreement and the Polical Declaration.

The one I have been referring you to is "The Irish Protoocol".



You can find it either on the EU site or the UK Gov site.



https://ec.europa.eu/info/european-union-and-united-kingdom-forging-new-partnership/eu-uk-withdrawal-agreement/protocol-ireland-and-northern-ireland_en">https://ec.europa.eu/info/european-unio ... ireland_en">https://ec.europa.eu/info/european-union-and-united-kingdom-forging-new-partnership/eu-uk-withdrawal-agreement/protocol-ireland-and-northern-ireland_en

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-uks-approach-to-the-northern-ireland-protocol">https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... d-protocol">https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-uks-approach-to-the-northern-ireland-protocol





There is only one land border in the UK. It is between N and S ireland.

This remains unchanged.

All of our borders remain the same. Leaving the EU treaty does not mean we have to grant them our territory.





Obviously the EU far preferred Mrs Mays' negotiation than Boris's deal.

But this country wouldn't accept it and it takes two to tango.

BeElBeeBub

Quote from: Baff post_id=26735 time=1590746056 user_id=121
I agree with you.



It is of note, that under this agreement the EU also has the same obligations.

And unlike the UK has so far come up with no plan to deal with it.



It's not us that is in danger of breaking a treaty here.


There is nothing for the EU to plan, the whole point is that under the IP the UK is responsible for the border between GB and NI, the EU oversees it to check compliance and is part of the JC that decides on what goods are "Not at risk"



The UK government has consistently made statements that are at odds with it's compliance with the IP



Johnson's "throw the forms in the bin" rant is an example.


Quote


We already have the facilities to deal with animals imported into Ireland.

A spot check inspection point at two ports is nothing more than a portacabin at each with a customs officer in it.

There is no reason to believe this can't be met.

Trade in that direction is not very large either.







The EU applied for permission to build their own infrastructure to oversee this, but have been refused permission.


The EU wanted an office in Belfast for it's oversight team. The UK has refused them permission, so now the team has to be based in RoI and travel.  Very petty by the UK.
Quote


The Irish need to build the same by the end of year.



There will not be checks on all goods any more than there are checks on all goods at any other border in the world.

Most will go through unchecked if they have the correct paperwork filed.

There will be spot checks.


and there you have it in a nutshell



Currently you can move goods between GB and NI in a similar manner to between England and Wales or Scotland.  if the goods aren't agricultural then there is no paperwork. When I drive into wales I don't have to fill in a carnet for my tools.  I don't have to declare any goods in the van or car.



I don't need any paperwork.



When I go to the Isle of Wight, there is no paperwork required.  I can drive a van loaded with electronics, boiler parts, toys and shoes with no paper work at all.



The same van moving to NI will now need paperwork and have to pay tariffs.
Quote


These checks will not be made by EU perosnnel at an EU borderstation on UK soil.



Further to this it doesn't cover all types of goods.

It covers agricultural produce.

Goods that pertain to keeping the Irish cross border trade in them open.

You know, farms that straddlle both sides of the border and the goal is protect the inter Irish trade of such things.

These rules essentially deal with the risk of contagion in animal stocks. Cross contamination with GMO perhaps.

That sort of thing. Farming standards.



The link I have given you there is from the Politcal Declaration.

It's called the Irish Protocol and sets out a list of aspirations.

Read it. You will find every statement is caveated with use of conditionals and the like.



You can find a seperate PDF covering the agreements we have discussed.

And a third one to explain them both, on the UK government website. I'll leave you to Google that if you are interested.



The Agreements you describe is in the WA explicitly but does not go anything like as far as the one posted above. "The Irish Protocal"

Covering just what we have mentioned.




Go here to download the legal text as agreed



Quote


We have recently published all our treaty negotiations to the world. They can all see how we deal with treaties.

Our transparency is testament in our confidence that we are being honourable and dealing in good fatih.



It should not be lost on you that the rest of the world has all the same kinds of issues with the EU as we do.

That they are all very pleased with us for changing our trade focus away from the EU and towards them.

Diplomatically, leaving the EU has done wonders for our standing in the world.



The example we have set to countries wishing to make treaties with us is simply this.

You can't rip us off.

Had we have gone with May's deal, all the sharks would be circling us.


Ironically, Mays deal was far closer to the "cherry picking" that the EU wanted to avoid than Johnson's deal.  The current arrangement is more or less the original EU proposal, just with some cosmetics (like calling the area covering NI that conforms to the majority of the EU customs code "the UK customs territory)  to make it look like it isn't.  Any you fell for it.



If we had May's deal we wouldn't be facing a cliff edge at the end of the year with massive disruption ot cross channel trade (where a significant portion of our food and good come via) in the middle of (or hopefully just after) a pandemic and the biggest recession in living memory.



Ho hum, at least you got some blue passports out of it, even if we can't use them.

Thomas

Quote from: Baff post_id=26735 time=1590746056 user_id=121


Diplomatically, leaving the EU has done wonders for our standing in the world.






I think so baff. I keep making the point had you went through the farce of a referendum , voted leave , then the anti democratic remainers got their own way and overturned the vote  , thus not leaving the eu ,you would have been the laughing stock of the world by now.



You have no choice but to see it through now for better or worse.



If you arent completely free and unfettered of the eu and its rules , then the whole issue will have been totally pointless.



Heres hoping for a hard brexit at the end of the year , and wiping that smug grin right off the  anti democratic remoaners boat races. :thup:



The majority of folk voted brexit , and its time this was enacted four years on.
An Fhirinn an aghaidh an t-Saoghail!

Nick

Quote from: "Hyperduck Quack Quack" post_id=24846 time=1589621105 user_id=103
Plus the fact that there was never a 'brilliant negotiating style' in the first place.


I think you'll find our strategy stating we are open and not a corrupt cartel is working just fine. Problem is you're focused on the EU being the be all and end all when it's just another piece of the puzzle. Clearly Japan's vision is more open than yours.



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52829348">https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52829348
I can explain it to you, but I can't understand it for you.

Baff

I agree with you.



It is of note, that under this agreement the EU also has the same obligations.

And unlike the UK has so far come up with no plan to deal with it.



It's not us that is in danger of breaking a treaty here.



We already have the facilities to deal with animals imported into Ireland.

A spot check inspection point at two ports is nothing more than a portacabin at each with a customs officer in it.

There is no reason to believe this can't be met.

Trade in that direction is not very large either.



The EU applied for permission to build their own infrastructure to oversee this, but have been refused permission.



The Irish need to build the same by the end of year.



There will not be checks on all goods any more than there are checks on all goods at any other border in the world.

Most will go through unchecked if they have the correct paperwork filed.

There will be spot checks.



These checks will not be made by EU perosnnel at an EU borderstation on UK soil.



Further to this it doesn't cover all types of goods.

It covers agricultural produce.

Goods that pertain to keeping the Irish cross border trade in them open.

You know, farms that straddlle both sides of the border and the goal is protect the inter Irish trade of such things.

These rules essentially deal with the risk of contagion in animal stocks. Cross contamination with GMO perhaps.

That sort of thing. Farming standards.









The link Ihave given you there is from the Politcal Declaration.

It's called the Irish Protocol and sets out a list of aspirations.

Read it. You will find every statement is caveated with use of conditionals and the like.



You can find a seperate PDF covering the agreements we have discussed.

And a third one to explain them both, on the UK government website. I'll leave you to Google that if you are interested.



The Agreements you describe is in the WA explicitly but does not go anything like as far as the one posted above. "The Irish Protocal"

Covering just what we have mentioned.





This is a massive change from what May had agreed.

Keeping NI in the UK customs union.

Previously the border was to be in the Irish Sea.

Now it is not going to move at all. It is between N and S ireland. And behind the lines checkpoints will be used in line with the Max Fac suggestions the UK first outlined.





If you were thinking the EU did not back down on N Ireland, you would be very much mistaken.

There are to be no checkpoints on the Irish border.

And the UK and indeed no part of the UK are to remain in the EU Customs Union.

Something our friend Mnr Barnier described as mutually exclusive. Impssible. As if he ever had any say in the matter.



We have recently published all our treaty negotiations to the world. They can all see how we deal with treaties.

Our transparency is testament in our confidence that we are being honourable and dealing in good fatih.



It should not be lost on you that the rest of the world has all the same kinds of issues with the EU as we do.

That they are all very pleased with us for changing our trade focus away from the EU and towards them.

Diplomatically, leaving the EU has done wonders for our standing in the world.



The example we have set to countries wishing to make treaties with us is simply this.

You can't rip us off.

Had we have gone with May's deal, all the sharks would be circling us.