Is Germany once again the sick man of Europe?

[HDQQ]

The top selling brand into the UK is VW. The 3rd best selling is Audi (behind Ford)
German manufacturers (VW, Audi, BMW Mercedes) make up over 25% UK car sales a market share that is growing year on year. It should be noted though that UK car sales are well below pre pandemic peak. (about 1.6m vs 2.5m).

Audi and VW are subsidiaries of the same company, Volkswagen Audi Group. They also own Skoda, SEAT and Bentley. BMW owns Mini and Rolls-Royce. Mercedes doesn't own any other brands apart from 50% of Smart. So the figure for all cars sold in UK that are made by German owned companies would be over 25%.

Similarly for lorries. Scania and MAN are owned by Volkswagen Audi Group, and Mercedes lorries are common on our roads too.

[Nick]

Blue Whiting is a commercially fished in Scotland ,I and turned into fish meal and generally exported to Africa for human consumption  (I googled it while the adverts were on )

That explains why I've never seen it in fish mongers or caught it. 

[Streetwalker]

Blue Whiting is a commercially fished in Scotland ,I and turned into fish meal and generally exported to Africa for human consumption  (I googled it while the adverts were on )

Germany has its problems . The cost of living crisis there is as bad as anyones and people if not the government are turning against green energy and green taxes . They are also dispite Merkles welcome against the immigration levels they are seeing . When people are unhappy they look to extreem parties to give their goverment a kicking . Germany has a coalition goverment so the people have to look outside these and as Borky says in the OP have looked to the right wing AfG 

The EU is a GDP wrecking ball , the bigger they are the harder they fall which I guess means that Germany are fecked . This guy though will take Germany to a different level
Germany's Finance Minister Is the Most Dangerous Man in Europe (jacobin.com)

[Nick]

It's  it's not so simple.
Firstly, lots of EU flagged boats still have the right to fish in UK waters because the UK skippers sold their quotas to them.
Secondly the species we mostly catch in UK waters are mackerel and herring. Which we don't eat much of. The species we do tend to eat are caught in EU waters (no longer by UK boats).

So, if we were to manage to get all the quotas back and catch all that lovely mackerel and herring... Who are we going to sell it to?

With all due respect you have now moved into the realm of talking utter nonsense. I have fished the U.K. waters for decades and have my own small 18' fishing boat. 
Mackerel is widely eaten in the U.K., it is on every fish counter in every supermarket and fish mongers in the country. As for Herring, where do you think Kippers come from?
Blue Whiting?? Never even heard of it, that's how abundant it is in inshore waters, and I've NEVER seen it on ice in the U.K.  
Cod and Haddock are widespread in Chippies. 
Monkfish is a ridiculous price, same as Angler fish, another meaty fish. 
Saithe is a pissy little fish caught off the rocks up in Scotland, has another name but I can't remember off the top of my head. 
Nobody sells Whiting hardly in the U.K.  
Hake is a reasonably big seller, very tasty. 
Again, nobody sells Horse Mackerel (Scad) is it's more commonly known. 

None of the species in that list are EU waters fish, and where you get the notion the U.K. eats more fish caught in EU waters is a mystery.
Cod, Haddock, Plaice, Bass, Bream, Halibut, Hake, Mackerel and herring are all widely caught in U.K. waters. Most of our large Prawns seems to be coming from Central America or Vietnam last time I looked. The only exception this could maybe be Tuna but I'm guessing that's not from EU waters unless people are eating Bonito or Albacore. 

[BeElBeeBub]

The fishing situation is a different kettle of fish, that is 100% down to the French and their typical French attitude. Ultimately the U.K. will win the battle as the EU is slowly losing access to our waters. The Med is slowly dying as a fishing ground and the likes of the Netherlands are reliant on our waters. Ultimately the EU will have no choice but to sort the French out or lose total access. I prefer the latter and then pull their pants down on the prices, bout time the French got their arses paddled.

It's  it's not so simple. 
Firstly, lots of EU flagged boats still have the right to fish in UK waters because the UK skippers sold their quotas to them. 
Secondly the species we mostly catch in UK waters are mackerel and herring. Which we don't eat much of. The species we do tend to eat are caught in EU waters (no longer by UK boats). 

So, if we were to manage to get all the quotas back and catch all that lovely mackerel and herring... Who are we going to sell it to? 
 

[BeElBeeBub]

Never have I said Brexit is all sunny uplands, what I've said is remainers are complaining that there is water pissing through the ceiling from the bathroom above and blaming a leaky tap for the mess (Brexit) when the both bath taps are on and the plug is in (Covid and Ukraine).

If I may vary the analogy..... 

The ceiling is coming down because upstairs has 3 leaks: Covid, Ukraine and Brexit. 

Covid and Ukraine were not our fault. They were dramatic but ultimately can be fixed (the covid one is already fixed) and we can redecorate. In a decade you won't even notice the damage. 

We caused the Brexit leak and it is never going to be fixed. It will just keep dripping and making our walls damp amd timbers rot for decades to come. 

[Nick]

Covid *and* Ukraine "and* Brexit *and* some other stuff.

You keep contending that Brexit has been nothing but sunlight and roses for the UK and every single bad thing that happens is purely due to Covid or Ukraine or Dieselgate or some such.

Brexit has very real and visible impacts. Check out any manufacturing survey. The sentiment has overwhelmingly been "Brexit has increased costs and lost us sales". Check out surveys from exporters and importers, the same.

Are the extra paperwork and associated costs to export/import due to covid or Ukraine or Brexit?

Even the fishermen are pissed off. Are the restrictions on landing and exporting fish due to covid, Ukraine or Brexit? Are the restrictions on UK fishermen fishing in EU waters due to Covid, Ukraine or covid?

Where are the industry groups saying "wow! things have got easier since Brexit"

Never have I said Brexit is all sunny uplands, what I've said is remainers are complaining that there is water pissing through the ceiling from the bathroom above and blaming a leaky tap for the mess (Brexit) when the both bath taps are on and the plug is in (Covid and Ukraine). 

The fishing situation is a different kettle of fish, that is 100% down to the French and their typical French attitude. Ultimately the U.K. will win the battle as the EU is slowly losing access to our waters. The Med is slowly dying as a fishing ground and the likes of the Netherlands are reliant on our waters. Ultimately the EU will have no choice but to sort the French out or lose total access. I prefer the latter and then pull their pants down on the prices, bout time the French got their arses paddled. 

[BeElBeeBub]

And strangely enough, I source Covid and Ukraine as they are what is driving our economic stagnation ATM, Brexit is nearly visible.

Covid *and* Ukraine "and* Brexit *and* some other stuff.

You keep contending that Brexit has been nothing but sunlight and roses for the UK and every single bad thing that happens is purely due to Covid or Ukraine or Dieselgate or some such.

Brexit has very real and visible impacts. Check out any manufacturing survey. The sentiment has overwhelmingly been "Brexit has increased costs and lost us sales". Check out surveys from exporters and importers, the same.

Are the extra paperwork and associated costs to export/import due to covid or Ukraine or Brexit?

Even the fishermen are pissed off. Are the restrictions on landing and exporting fish due to covid, Ukraine or Brexit? Are the restrictions on UK fishermen fishing in EU waters due to Covid, Ukraine or covid? 

Where are the industry groups saying "wow! things have got easier since Brexit" 

[BeElBeeBub]

The reason the EU was cited in the Ford move was because they paid them €80 million, sorry for blaming the EU for something they did. 

No, that's the simplistic brexit narrative. "EU paid Ford £80m to move production form Southampton to Turkey" - I mean do you really think thatvs plausible? 

I've been through this before
Ford Southampton was the victim of a decade long Ford restructure, one of a dozen Ford sites closed worldwide, including some in Europe as part of the "one ford" program to consolidate production and reduce costs. 

After the financial crisis Ford Europe was in trouble. It requested a package of loans to help it modernise it's production facilities across the continent of Europe. 
The original plan was to keep Southampton open by shifting it to producing chassis vans whilst the production of the new model of panel van went to Turkey.

The EIB loaned Ford £450m to modernise itvs UK operations, including Southampton. This kept Southampton open past the original closure date and hopefully would allow it to continue by switching to producing Transit chassis vans whilst the production of Transit panel vans would move to Turkey. The EIB approved the £80m loan to prepare the Turkish site to take take over panel van production. 

Unfortunately Ford sales continued to slide. The Turkish factory was operating at 50% capacity and the Southampton one at below 40% capacity. In addition the Southampton factory had space constraints that the Turkish factory didn't have. 

So Ford HQ decided to close the Southampton factory and consolidate production in Turkey. They also closed some European operations and shifted production around. 

Without the EIB loans the Southampton plant would have closed years earlier along with other UK (and EU) plants. 

The real narrative was "EIB approves hundreds of millions in loans to keep as many ford EU (in UK) factories afloat as possible in the face of worldwide ford restructure. Some plants still closed"

[Nick]

It was more often in the negative. The claim that EU membership was moving jobs out of the UK to the EU.

For example, several posters here, including yourself I believe, referenced the closure of the Ford factory in Southampton and blamed it on the EU.

Again, economies are the summation of a huge  unber of factors that each have positive and negative effects, high energy prices can cause problems for industry and households but can boost domestic fossil fuel production as the previously uneconomic fields become economic. Import tariffs may benefit local producers but harm local consumers. And so on.

You yourself are quick to shout "pandemic! Ukraine!" whenever there is bad economic news. In reality, every bit of bad and good news will have multiple causes.

Brexit is just another collection of things that affect the UK economy. The list of bad things tends to be longer than the good things.

Germany has itvs own set of problems, just like France and Italy and Greece do.

The reason the EU was cited in the Ford move was because they paid them €80 million, sorry for blaming the EU for something they did. And strangely enough, I source Covid and Ukraine as they are what is driving our economic stagnation ATM, Brexit is nearly visible. 

[BeElBeeBub]

I don't recall any Brexiteers hankering for the days of great British industry, can you show any examples on this forum of that being a factor for voting leave?
It has taken the German economy to nose dive for Remainers to soften their rhetoric and almost acknowledge Brexit is not driving the UK's economy. The Burgermeister of Europe is sick, how can this be Brexit?

It was more often in the negative. The claim that EU membership was moving jobs out of the UK to the EU. 

For example, several posters here, including yourself I believe, referenced the closure of the Ford factory in Southampton and blamed it on the EU.

Again, economies are the summation of a huge  unber of factors that each have positive and negative effects, high energy prices can cause problems for industry and households but can boost domestic fossil fuel production as the previously uneconomic fields become economic. Import tariffs may benefit local producers but harm local consumers. And so on.

You yourself are quick to shout "pandemic! Ukraine!" whenever there is bad economic news. In reality, every bit of bad and good news will have multiple causes. 

Brexit is just another collection of things that affect the UK economy. The list of bad things tends to be longer than the good things. 

Germany has itvs own set of problems, just like France and Italy and Greece do.

[Nick]

The top selling brand into the UK is VW. The 3rd best selling is Audi (behind Ford)
German manufacturers (VW, Audi, BMW Mercedes) make up over 25% UK car sales a market share that is growing year on year. It should be noted though that UK car sales are well below pre pandemic peak. (about 1.6m vs 2.5m).

But to the wider point, yes the German economy has some structural issues as noted. Their bureaucracy is definitely a big negative and their industrial mix leaves them vulnerable to the coming changes.

The UK has some of the exact same issues mentioned, demographics, infrastructure, investment etc.

Also interesting is that the article points out manufacturing is becoming less viable as the mainstay of an economy. Which was the point missed when brexiters bleated about losing manufacturing jobs, hankering for the days of factory towns when Britain was the workshop of the world. So bravo for skating to where the puck was.

And then there is the bit about skills shortages and the Germans looking to immigration to fill the skills and demographic gap.  Something (some sections of) the UK is actively trying to stop.

I don't recall any Brexiteers hankering for the days of great British industry, can you show any examples on this forum of that being a factor for voting leave?
It has taken the German economy to nose dive for Remainers to soften their rhetoric and almost acknowledge Brexit is not driving the UK's economy. The Burgermeister of Europe is sick, how can this be Brexit?

[BeElBeeBub]

We did say during the referendum that 15% of all German cars worldwide came to the U.K. Looks like the lack of a serious Brexit deal has hit them right where we said it would, that coupled with losing the back in China.

The top selling brand into the UK is VW. The 3rd best selling is Audi (behind Ford) 
German manufacturers (VW, Audi, BMW Mercedes) make up over 25% UK car sales a market share that is growing year on year. It should be noted though that UK car sales are well below pre pandemic peak. (about 1.6m vs 2.5m).

But to the wider point, yes the German economy has some structural issues as noted. Their bureaucracy is definitely a big negative and their industrial mix leaves them vulnerable to the coming changes.

The UK has some of the exact same issues mentioned, demographics, infrastructure, investment etc.

Also interesting is that the article points out manufacturing is becoming less viable as the mainstay of an economy. Which was the point missed when brexiters bleated about losing manufacturing jobs, hankering for the days of factory towns when Britain was the workshop of the world. So bravo for skating to where the puck was. 

And then there is the bit about skills shortages and the Germans looking to immigration to fill the skills and demographic gap.  Something (some sections of) the UK is actively trying to stop. 

[Nick]

I hope not. As long as the Hateful Hun wallows in gold then they have the where withal to buy whatever crap we care to knock out. A rising tide floats all boats etc. But the article appeared in the Economist which is right once in a while, so there you are....... archive.is/sbjrs  17 August 2023 Is Germany once again the sick man of Europe? Its ills are different from 1999. But another stiff dose of reform is still needed Nearly twenty-five years ago this newspaper called Germany the sick man of the euro. The combination of reunification, a sclerotic job market and slowing export demand all plagued the economy, forcing unemployment into double digits. Then a series of reforms in the early 2000s ushered in a golden age. Germany became the envy of its peers. Not only did the trains run on time but, with its world-beating engineering, the country also stood out as an exporting powerhouse. However, while Germany has prospered, the world has kept on turning. As a result, Germany has once again started to fall behind. Europe's biggest economy has gone from a growth leader to a laggard. Between 2006 and 2017 it outperformed its large counterparts and kept pace with America. Yet today it has just experienced its third quarter of contraction or stagnation and may end up being the only big economy to shrink in 2023. The problems lie not only in the here and now. According to the imf, Germany will grow more slowly than America, Britain, France and Spain over the next five years, too. To be sure, things are not as alarming as they were in 1999. Unemployment today is around 3%; the country is richer and more open. But Germans increasingly complain that their country is not working as well as it should. Four out of five tell pollsters that Germany is not a fair place to live. Trains now run so serially behind the clock that Switzerland has barred late ones from its network. After being stranded abroad for the second time this summer as her ageing official plane malfunctioned, Annalena Baerbock, the foreign minister, has aborted a trip to Australia. For years Germany's outperformance in old industries papered over its lack of investment in new ones. Complacency and an obsession with fiscal prudence led to too little public investment, and not just in Deutsche Bahn and the Bundeswehr. Overall, the country's investment in information technology as a share of gdp is less than half that in America and France. Bureaucratic conservatism also gets in the way. Obtaining a licence to operate a business takes 120 days—twice as long as the oecd average. Added to this are worsening geopolitics, the difficulty of eliminating carbon emissions and the travails of an ageing population. The geopolitics mean that manufacturing may no longer be the cash cow it used to be. Of all the large Western economies, Germany is the most exposed to China. Last year trade between the two amounted to $314bn. That relationship was once governed by the profit motive; now things are more complicated. In China German carmakers are losing the battle for market share against home-grown competitors. And in more sensitive areas, as the West "de-risks" its ties with China, some may be severed altogether. Meanwhile, a scramble for advanced manufacturing and robust supply chains is unleashing a torrent of subsidies to foster home-grown industry that will either threaten German firms or demand subsidies inside the European Union. Another difficulty comes from the energy transition. Germany's industrial sector uses nearly twice as much energy as the next-biggest in Europe, and its consumers have a much bigger carbon footprint than those in France or Italy. Cheap Russian gas is no longer an option and the country has, in a spectacular own goal, turned away from nuclear power. A lack of investment in grids and a sluggardly permit system are hobbling the transition to cheap renewable energy, threatening to make manufacturers less competitive. Increasingly, too, Germany lacks the talent it needs. A baby boom after the second world war means that 2m workers, on net, will retire over the next five years. Although the country has attracted almost 1.1m Ukrainian refugees, many are children and non-working women who may soon return home. Already, two-fifths of employers say they are struggling to find skilled workers. That is not just the normal grumbling: the state of Berlin cannot fill even half of its vacancies for teachers. For Germany to thrive in a more fragmented, greener and ageing world, its economic model will need to adapt. Yet whereas high unemployment forced Gerhard Schröder's coalition into action in the 1990s, the alarm bells are easier to ignore this time. Few in today's government, made up of the Social Democrats, the liberal Free Democrats and the Greens, admit to the scale of the task. Even if they did, the coalition is so fractious that the parties would struggle to agree on a remedy. Moreover, Alternative für Deutschland, a far-right populist party, is polling at 20% nationally and may win some state elections next year. Few in government will propose radical change for fear of playing into its hands. The temptation may therefore be to stick with the old ways of doing things. But that would not bring back Germany's heyday. Nor would it quell the onrush of challenges to the status quo. China will continue to develop and compete, and de-risking, decarbonisation and demography cannot simply be wished away. Instead of running scared, politicians must look ahead, by fostering new firms, infrastructure and talent. Embracing technology would be a gift to new firms and industries. A digitised bureaucracy would do wonders for smaller firms that lack the capacity to fill out reams of paperwork. Further permit reform would help ensure that infrastructure gets built speedily and to budget. Money also matters. Too often infrastructure has suffered as the government has made a fetish of its balanced-budget rules. Although Germany cannot spend as freely as it might have in the 2010s, when interest rates were low, forgoing investment as a way of reining in excess spending is a false economy. Agenda 2030 Just as important will be attracting new talent. Germany has liberalised its immigration rules, but the visa process is still glacial and the system favours refugees over professionals who might want to settle in the country. Attracting them could even nurture home-grown talent, if it helped deal with the chronic shortage of teachers. In a country of coalition governments and cautious bureaucrats, none of this will be easy. Yet two decades ago, Germany pulled off a remarkable transformation to extraordinary effect. It is time for another visit to the health farm. ■7

We did say during the referendum that 15% of all German cars worldwide came to the U.K. Looks like the lack of a serious Brexit deal has hit them right where we said it would, that coupled with losing the back in China. 

[Borchester]

I hope not. As long as the Hateful Hun wallows in gold then they have the where withal to buy whatever crap we care to knock out. A rising tide floats all boats etc. But the article appeared in the Economist which is right once in a while, so there you are....... archive.is/sbjrs  17 August 2023   Is Germany once again the sick man of Europe? Its ills are different from 1999. But another stiff dose of reform is still needed Nearly twenty-five years ago this newspaper called Germany the sick man of the euro. The combination of reunification, a sclerotic job market and slowing export demand all plagued the economy, forcing unemployment into double digits. Then a series of reforms in the early 2000s ushered in a golden age. Germany became the envy of its peers. Not only did the trains run on time but, with its world-beating engineering, the country also stood out as an exporting powerhouse. However, while Germany has prospered, the world has kept on turning. As a result, Germany has once again started to fall behind. Europe's biggest economy has gone from a growth leader to a laggard. Between 2006 and 2017 it outperformed its large counterparts and kept pace with America. Yet today it has just experienced its third quarter of contraction or stagnation and may end up being the only big economy to shrink in 2023. The problems lie not only in the here and now. According to the imf, Germany will grow more slowly than America, Britain, France and Spain over the next five years, too. To be sure, things are not as alarming as they were in 1999. Unemployment today is around 3%; the country is richer and more open. But Germans increasingly complain that their country is not working as well as it should. Four out of five tell pollsters that Germany is not a fair place to live. Trains now run so serially behind the clock that Switzerland has barred late ones from its network. After being stranded abroad for the second time this summer as her ageing official plane malfunctioned, Annalena Baerbock, the foreign minister, has aborted a trip to Australia. For years Germany's outperformance in old industries papered over its lack of investment in new ones. Complacency and an obsession with fiscal prudence led to too little public investment, and not just in Deutsche Bahn and the Bundeswehr. Overall, the country's investment in information technology as a share of gdp is less than half that in America and France. Bureaucratic conservatism also gets in the way. Obtaining a licence to operate a business takes 120 days—twice as long as the oecd average. Added to this are worsening geopolitics, the difficulty of eliminating carbon emissions and the travails of an ageing population. The geopolitics mean that manufacturing may no longer be the cash cow it used to be. Of all the large Western economies, Germany is the most exposed to China. Last year trade between the two amounted to $314bn. That relationship was once governed by the profit motive; now things are more complicated. In China German carmakers are losing the battle for market share against home-grown competitors. And in more sensitive areas, as the West "de-risks" its ties with China, some may be severed altogether. Meanwhile, a scramble for advanced manufacturing and robust supply chains is unleashing a torrent of subsidies to foster home-grown industry that will either threaten German firms or demand subsidies inside the European Union. Another difficulty comes from the energy transition. Germany's industrial sector uses nearly twice as much energy as the next-biggest in Europe, and its consumers have a much bigger carbon footprint than those in France or Italy. Cheap Russian gas is no longer an option and the country has, in a spectacular own goal, turned away from nuclear power. A lack of investment in grids and a sluggardly permit system are hobbling the transition to cheap renewable energy, threatening to make manufacturers less competitive. Increasingly, too, Germany lacks the talent it needs. A baby boom after the second world war means that 2m workers, on net, will retire over the next five years. Although the country has attracted almost 1.1m Ukrainian refugees, many are children and non-working women who may soon return home. Already, two-fifths of employers say they are struggling to find skilled workers. That is not just the normal grumbling: the state of Berlin cannot fill even half of its vacancies for teachers. For Germany to thrive in a more fragmented, greener and ageing world, its economic model will need to adapt. Yet whereas high unemployment forced Gerhard Schröder's coalition into action in the 1990s, the alarm bells are easier to ignore this time. Few in today's government, made up of the Social Democrats, the liberal Free Democrats and the Greens, admit to the scale of the task. Even if they did, the coalition is so fractious that the parties would struggle to agree on a remedy. Moreover, Alternative für Deutschland, a far-right populist party, is polling at 20% nationally and may win some state elections next year. Few in government will propose radical change for fear of playing into its hands. The temptation may therefore be to stick with the old ways of doing things. But that would not bring back Germany's heyday. Nor would it quell the onrush of challenges to the status quo. China will continue to develop and compete, and de-risking, decarbonisation and demography cannot simply be wished away. Instead of running scared, politicians must look ahead, by fostering new firms, infrastructure and talent. Embracing technology would be a gift to new firms and industries. A digitised bureaucracy would do wonders for smaller firms that lack the capacity to fill out reams of paperwork. Further permit reform would help ensure that infrastructure gets built speedily and to budget. Money also matters. Too often infrastructure has suffered as the government has made a fetish of its balanced-budget rules. Although Germany cannot spend as freely as it might have in the 2010s, when interest rates were low, forgoing investment as a way of reining in excess spending is a false economy. Agenda 2030 Just as important will be attracting new talent. Germany has liberalised its immigration rules, but the visa process is still glacial and the system favours refugees over professionals who might want to settle in the country. Attracting them could even nurture home-grown talent, if it helped deal with the chronic shortage of teachers. In a country of coalition governments and cautious bureaucrats, none of this will be easy. Yet two decades ago, Germany pulled off a remarkable transformation to extraordinary effect. It is time for another visit to the health farm. ■7