Is Germany once again the sick man of Europe?

Started by Borchester, August 19, 2023, 08:57:29 PM

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Nick

Quote from: BeElBeeBub on August 27, 2023, 09:05:33 AM
That is true to a degree, except the majority of non-Euro brands (eg ford) were headquartered in Germany or the UK. The obvious exceptions are the other national brands like Fiat, Citroen etc who are HQd in their respective countries.

You keep focusing on Germany (a weird Brexiter trait) but, the car industry is so diversified geographical that you  you really need to look at the EU as a whole. We don't look at car manufacturing in the UK at a county level. A mini may be assembled in Oxfordshire but it's parts are made all over the UK (and world).

You are differentiating between German brands and cars made in Germany.

But that is artificially narrow and arbitrary.

What about German branded cars made outside Germany (eg BMW X series), or German owned brands manufactured outside Germany but still in the EU (Skoda, Seat etc). What do you do about non German brands headquartered in Germany (Ford)?

You maintain that 1 in 7 German cars is bought by the UK.

What is your source (seeing as you are always demanding the same of me). What is the definition?

At a global level (which might apply as you talk of HQ profits) BMW manufactured around 2.4m cars in 2020, and sold around 110k in the UK (about 5%)

For VAG it was 8.8m and 130k UK sales (about 1.5%)

How important is the UK to those groups?

Put it this way, VAG are worrying more about the 3.3% drop in it's China sales that losing every single UK sale.
Brexiteers focus on Germany because they are supposed to be the bastion f greatness within the EU, however we are outstripping them at every level, even though Brexit is supposed to be doing for us. I notice that it seems to be a touchy subject for Remainers these days, the fact sad old post-Brexit Britain isn't dying in a ditch as prophecised.

This is not the question in hand, but by answering it it gives the info about the 15%
Ask your self how important Germany views its single biggest market!

https://fullfact.org/europe/german-cars-uk/#:~:text=Germany%20sells%20about%2014%25%20of,we%20sell%20to%20them%20overall.

The outstanding question is still, how is the U.K. out performing Germany if Brexit is impacting us? Simple question. 


I can explain it to you, but I can't understand it for you.

BeElBeeBub

Quote from: Nick on August 27, 2023, 06:00:27 AM

Any data since we left and after Covid?
How about you ask Google.

No noffense but why should I do the leg work you're too lazy to do? 

Look up SMMT and ACEA. 

Like I said the figures were from 2020. ACEA have some more up to date (2022) EU production figures and the SMMT figures for the UK look to be broadly in line with the 2020 figures. That is to say (before you leap in with "ha no Brexit effect!") the proportions that the UK exports to EU and vice versa are in the same region as before. 

BeElBeeBub

Quote from: Nick on August 27, 2023, 06:00:27 AM
Firstly, cars made in Germany can be anything: Ford, Nissan etc These will have their headquarters elsewhere and profits will be moved about the group to ease their tax burdens. These companies don't necessarily impact as much on Germany's economy. Where as BMW, Mercedes etc have their headquarters in Munich and contribute a lot to the economy. The U.K. buys one in 7 German cars and that is the difference, Germany isn't going to allow the EU to screw that up are they?
That is true to a degree, except the majority of non-Euro brands (eg ford) were headquartered in Germany or the UK. The obvious exceptions are the other national brands like Fiat, Citroen etc who are HQd in their respective countries.

You keep focusing on Germany (a weird Brexiter trait) but, the car industry is so diversified geographical that you  you really need to look at the EU as a whole. We don't look at car manufacturing in the UK at a county level. A mini may be assembled in Oxfordshire but it's parts are made all over the UK (and world). 

You are differentiating between German brands and cars made in Germany. 

But that is artificially narrow and arbitrary. 

What about German branded cars made outside Germany (eg BMW X series), or German owned brands manufactured outside Germany but still in the EU (Skoda, Seat etc). What do you do about non German brands headquartered in Germany (Ford)? 

You maintain that 1 in 7 German cars is bought by the UK. 

What is your source (seeing as you are always demanding the same of me). What is the definition? 

At a global level (which might apply as you talk of HQ profits) BMW manufactured around 2.4m cars in 2020, and sold around 110k in the UK (about 5%)

For VAG it was 8.8m and 130k UK sales (about 1.5%)

How important is the UK to those groups? 

Put it this way, VAG are worrying more about the 3.3% drop in it's China sales that losing every single UK sale. 

Nick

Quote from: BeElBeeBub on August 26, 2023, 09:44:32 AM
A bit of deflection I think.  Do you contend the figures are made up or significantly out of date?

It's from 2020.

Full link here,

https://www.acea.auto/files/EU-UK_automobile_trade-facts_figures_March_2020.pdf

Now we have established the data's source and date, would you care to explain how it shows that the UK is in a "powerful position" when it comes to vehicle manufacture?

(In the absence of you explaining, I'm going to assume there isn't any difference between "cars made in Germany" and "German manufactured cars")
Firstly, cars made in Germany can be anything: Ford, Nissan etc These will have their headquarters elsewhere and profits will be moved about the group to ease their tax burdens. These companies don't necessarily impact as much on Germany's economy. Where as BMW, Mercedes etc have their headquarters in Munich and contribute a lot to the economy. The U.K. buys one in 7 German cars and that is the difference, Germany isn't going to allow the EU to screw that up are they?

Any data since we left and after Covid?
I can explain it to you, but I can't understand it for you.

BeElBeeBub

Quote from: Nick on August 25, 2023, 06:54:43 PM
Your useful graphics have no dates on them therefore they are not useful.
A bit of deflection I think.  Do you contend the figures are made up or significantly out of date?

It's from 2020.

Full link here,

https://www.acea.auto/files/EU-UK_automobile_trade-facts_figures_March_2020.pdf

Now we have established the data's source and date, would you care to explain how it shows that the UK is in a "powerful position" when it comes to vehicle manufacture?

(In the absence of you explaining, I'm going to assume there isn't any difference between "cars made in Germany" and "German manufactured cars") 

Nick

Quote from: papasmurf on August 22, 2023, 04:39:37 PM
Not any more.
Another useless post by you, yet again a throw away. These sort of posts are going to get unapproved in the future. 
I can explain it to you, but I can't understand it for you.

Nick

Quote from: BeElBeeBub on August 25, 2023, 01:32:08 PM
I am intrigued as to what the big difference between" cars made in Germany" and "German manufactured cars" is.

But some figures (approximate and rounded - note USD for consistency)

UK exports of vehicles (not just cars) was $35bn
DE exports of vehicles (not just cars) was $270bn

UK exports of vehicles to EU was about $17bn a bit over half of total exports
DE exports of vehicles to UK was about $18bn about 7% of total exports

Here is a useful graphic that covers the EU as a whole (note years and methodologies are slightly different hence the variations, but it serves to illustrate the magnitudes)




it's pretty clear from the above that the UK would suffer much more from a spat over vehicles than the EU.

Sure the EU might lose a little more in cash terms but that neglects the difference in size.

If one of us were to lose £1m it would hurt a lot more than Elon Musk losing £10m despite his loss being bigger in cash terms.
Your useful graphics have no dates on them therefore they are not useful. 
I can explain it to you, but I can't understand it for you.

BeElBeeBub

Quote from: Nick on August 22, 2023, 02:25:45 PM
I didn't say cars made in Germany did I, I said German manufactured cars, there's a big difference...
I am intrigued as to what the big difference between" cars made in Germany" and "German manufactured cars" is.

But some figures (approximate and rounded - note USD for consistency)

UK exports of vehicles (not just cars) was $35bn
DE exports of vehicles (not just cars) was $270bn

UK exports of vehicles to EU was about $17bn a bit over half of total exports
DE exports of vehicles to UK was about $18bn about 7% of total exports

Here is a useful graphic that covers the EU as a whole (note years and methodologies are slightly different hence the variations, but it serves to illustrate the magnitudes) 




it's pretty clear from the above that the UK would suffer much more from a spat over vehicles than the EU.

Sure the EU might lose a little more in cash terms but that neglects the difference in size.

If one of us were to lose £1m it would hurt a lot more than Elon Musk losing £10m despite his loss being bigger in cash terms.

papasmurf

Quote from: BeElBeeBub on August 22, 2023, 12:33:14 PM
. Nearly 75% of UK fishomg catch is exported, and mostly to the EU.


Not any more. 
Nemini parco qui vivit in orbe

BeElBeeBub

Quote from: Nick on August 22, 2023, 02:25:45 PM
Wife is giving me daggers cause we are on holiday, will add more later.
😂Enjoy your holiday least your online discussions precipitate Wifexit! 😁

Nick

Quote from: BeElBeeBub on August 22, 2023, 12:33:14 PM
I see, so the fact the UK accounts for 15% of the vehicles made in Germany puts the UK in a powerful position.

But the EU market is 55% the vehicles made in the UK is irrelevant?

Moreover, the alternative markets for the vehicle capacity that would have gone to the UK are relatively easy to access, it would just become easier and cheaper to buy a BMW or Audi in France or Spain. The car specs (bar driving position) are the same, the consumer tastes are similar.

But the alternative market for UK manufactured vehicles is less easy. Firstly it is further away so more costly to export to. They also tend to be more protectionist than the EU access the UK enjoys.

Furthermore the vast majority of the components the UK plants use come from the EU.

In short, getting into a shit kicking contest over cars with the EU would be a bit annoying for the EU and German car industry but enormously damaging, verging on the catastrophic, for the UK industry.

Fishing is more or less the same. The UK industry is highly dependent on the EU as a market. Nearly 75% of UK fishomg catch is exported, and mostly to the EU.

So if the 15% of market you mentioned at the beginning is such a lever, how much more of a lever is 60%+
I didn't say cars made in Germany did I, I said German manufactured cars, there's a big difference, also, what are the values in $ for both import and export?

As for fishing, if the EU has no access to U.K. waters their fishing industry is dead, which means they have drastically less cold water species. They would either parlay on fishing rights or on prices.

Wife is giving me daggers cause we are on holiday, will add more later.
I can explain it to you, but I can't understand it for you.

BeElBeeBub

So the reason nobody is exploiting the fact the UK is 15% of German car production is because nobody is stupid enough to try to


BeElBeeBub

Quote from: Nick on August 22, 2023, 06:24:28 AM
That wasn't the point in question. The point was 15% of German manufactured cars  are sold to the U.K.  and if you take away the German domestic market, almost 1 in 5 cars exported from Germany come to the U.K.  Like with the fishing waters situation, we are in a powerful position so why is no one exploiting this?
I see, so the fact the UK accounts for 15% of the vehicles made in Germany puts the UK in a powerful position.

But the EU market is 55% the vehicles made in the UK is irrelevant?

Moreover, the alternative markets for the vehicle capacity that would have gone to the UK are relatively easy to access, it would just become easier and cheaper to buy a BMW or Audi in France or Spain. The car specs (bar driving position) are the same, the consumer tastes are similar. 

But the alternative market for UK manufactured vehicles is less easy. Firstly it is further away so more costly to export to. They also tend to be more protectionist than the EU access the UK enjoys. 

Furthermore the vast majority of the components the UK plants use come from the EU.

In short, getting into a shit kicking contest over cars with the EU would be a bit annoying for the EU and German car industry but enormously damaging, verging on the catastrophic, for the UK industry. 

Fishing is more or less the same. The UK industry is highly dependent on the EU as a market. Nearly 75% of UK fishomg catch is exported, and mostly to the EU. 

So if the 15% of market you mentioned at the beginning is such a lever, how much more of a lever is 60%+






papasmurf

Quote from: Nick on August 22, 2023, 06:24:28 AM
  Like with the fishing waters situation, we are in a powerful position so why is no one exploiting this?
What "powerful position."  Not a trick question. 
Nemini parco qui vivit in orbe

Nick

Quote from: HDQQ on August 21, 2023, 10:29:26 PM
Audi and VW are subsidiaries of the same company, Volkswagen Audi Group. They also own Skoda, SEAT and Bentley. BMW owns Mini and Rolls-Royce. Mercedes doesn't own any other brands apart from 50% of Smart. So the figure for all cars sold in UK that are made by German owned companies would be over 25%.

Similarly for lorries. Scania and MAN are owned by Volkswagen Audi Group, and Mercedes lorries are common on our roads too.
That wasn't the point in question. The point was 15% of German manufactured cars  are sold to the U.K.  and if you take away the German domestic market, almost 1 in 5 cars exported from Germany come to the U.K.  Like with the fishing waters situation, we are in a powerful position so why is no one exploiting this?
I can explain it to you, but I can't understand it for you.