UK Growth third fastest growing economy!!!

[Hyperduck Quack Quack]

I wonder if we've now got the third fastest shrinking economy.

[Nick]

Do you have the a single idea what the EU / Swiss relationship is and why the UK is never getting that deal, off the table, so why even discuss it.

Don't you understand that immigration has always been each countries concern. For non EU nationals you could do what you want. For EU nationals you could

stop anyone and send them packing if you classified them as a security risk or

check they could support themselves if not send them packing, or if

they came in and after 3 months didn't have a job send them packing.

Just because the UK didn't do any of these things don't think the UK borders were kept open due to the EU. It's always been a domestic UK problem, nothing to do with the EU.



As for Switzerland their not in the EU so their immigration controls are their business.

You're missing the point of the question. How does Switzerland stop people coming in when they have 1200 miles of land borders with virtually no security? The answer is they can't.



How are they going to check these people when they will be living in the black economy? And how are they going to send them packing when they don't know which country they are from?

[GerryT]

So how does Switzerland stop Croatians from freely entering?



How does the EU stop none ratified goods entering or exiting Switzerland?

Do you have the a single idea what the EU / Swiss relationship is and why the UK is never getting that deal, off the table, so why even discuss it.

Don't you understand that immigration has always been each countries concern. For non EU nationals you could do what you want. For EU nationals you could

stop anyone and send them packing if you classified them as a security risk or

check they could support themselves if not send them packing, or if

they came in and after 3 months didn't have a job send them packing.

Just because the UK didn't do any of these things don't think the UK borders were kept open due to the EU. It's always been a domestic UK problem, nothing to do with the EU.



As for Switzerland their not in the EU so their immigration controls are their business.

[Nick]

Do you favour the EU/Swiss relationship, is that what you would like for the UK ?

Not that the EU would give that deal to the UK, for reasons discussed here before. But the relationship see's Switzerland following the Dublin regulation, the schengen area, EFTA courts settle disputes but that mirrors the ECJ. Freedom of movement for most Europeans (excludes Croatia). That sounds just like what Brexiteer's want. Switzerland also makes financial contributions to the EU and there are hundreds of bi-lateral agreements.



And still the borders are not fully open.

So how does Switzerland stop Croatians from freely entering?



How does the EU stop none ratified goods entering or exiting Switzerland?

[GerryT]

Just like the big red line drawn round Switzerland. 👀

Do you favour the EU/Swiss relationship, is that what you would like for the UK ?

Not that the EU would give that deal to the UK, for reasons discussed here before. But the relationship see's Switzerland following the Dublin regulation, the schengen area, EFTA courts settle disputes but that mirrors the ECJ. Freedom of movement for most Europeans (excludes Croatia). That sounds just like what Brexiteer's want. Switzerland also makes financial contributions to the EU and there are hundreds of bi-lateral agreements.



And still the borders are not fully open.

[Nick]

Yes boris will paint a big red line down the middle. He'll also install customs checks at ports for all deliveries from one part of the UK to the other part of the UK on either side of the red line.

Just like the big red line drawn round Switzerland. 👀

[GerryT]

This border in the Irish Sea — will it be marked by buoyos...?

Yes boris will paint a big red line down the middle. He'll also install customs checks at ports for all deliveries from one part of the UK to the other part of the UK on either side of the red line.

[patman post]

This border in the Irish Sea — will it be marked by buoyos...?

[GerryT]

Is this not the reality:



https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/feb/11/uk-gdp-british-economy-zero-growth">https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... ero-growth">https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/feb/11/uk-gdp-british-economy-zero-growth



Not sure if figures for 2020 are out yet.



The big takeaway, the uk left the club but continues to bask in membership until 2021, that's when brexit really happens. Couple that with the problems in govt and the new NI secretary saying there will be no border in the Irish sea, it's all leading to a no deal exit.

[cromwell]

Not in the Champions League apparently!  ::  ::  ::  ::  ::  ::

Second words off  and when eufa's chief investigator announces what his decision will be and the punishment before the investigation even starts you know (and keeping it on topic) that this shows how corrupt and bent the whole thing is,much like the eu which we have happily left.

[Baron von Lotsov]

International currency investors have taken a positive view on the cabinet reshuffle and we are on the up again with respect to the dollar and euro. Meanwhile I was listening to a banker in Singapore I think it was, or one of those economies out there, and he said the pound was cheap at the moment and predicted it would be at about 1.40 to the dollar by the end of the year. The thing is that unlike the bullshit we get on our BBC, this chap was both independent and highly knowledgeable of the markets. So the East Asian lot do take a positive view of this country and think it has potential.

[DeppityDawg]

...there's no such team as citeh...

Not in the Champions League apparently!  ::  ::  ::  ::  ::  ::

[Conchúr]

Below is a graph from the ONS, the department you unbelievers hang your hat on. Show me where Brexit has had a profound affect!

All I see is a continuation of pre 2008.



https://d3fy651gv2fhd3.cloudfront.net/charts/united-kingdom-gdp-growth-annual@2x.png?s=ukgrybzy&v=202002111158V20191105&d1=19950219">



https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/gdp-growth-annual">https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kin ... wth-annual">https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/gdp-growth-annual

Ehh, I don't really know what way you are interpreting that but let's run through it.  As you can see, pre-2008 growth was rarely dipping below the 2% mark.  Financial Crisis hits and growth goes through the floor, then there is a clear trend of recovery back up to the usual 2%+ level of growth — which slumps following the 2016 referendum and has remained depressed since.  I really don't see how you're drawing similarities between the pre-2008 figures and now — there is quite a marked difference in trend.  



The nature of these figures are much greater than the small percentage variations suggest.  By current UK GDP, 1% is something like £26 billion — so naturally going up one percent brings you all the way to the figure of £52 billion.  Those small ebbs and flows are quite significant.

[Nick]

But Deppity — you have literally just said it yourself :  "In the UK, we've just gone through 3 and a half years of probably the worst conditions imaginable for investment and business confidence".  How do you not get my argument that there has been an initial negative impact from Brexit, when you have just acknowledged the environment it has created over the past couple of years ?  What I'm saying isn't even that controversial among many Leavers, who have long accepted the likelihood of a short term hit.  



Like I said before, some of the more theatrical predictions made by certain people about the catastrophes Brexit would bring were counterproductive.  But regardless of that, it is equally counterproductive to constantly hark back to them as a measuring stick for what constitutes success or even "doing OK".  Firstly, a lot of those predictions were predicated on all the tough talk about "No Deal" and — secondly — there were plenty of Remainers, and agencies / academics, that were making pretty reasonable and sober predictions and impact assessments.  Those more sober voices predicted "damage" ...not "doom" — but the more colourful predictions always get more media traction and more attention on forums like these.



I have a lot of time for your posts — really I do.  But I read the above and I ask myself  ...what is it that you want ?  Do you want me to abandon my own sense of independent critical thought and gently blow smoke up your arse — telling you how great everything is and how wonderfully everything is going ?  Forget "Golden Ages" — the UK's growth over the last 3 years has been around the same level as the growth which followed the recession and the worst financial crisis in a lifetime.  Having steadily started to accelerate towards the middle of the decade it quickly slumped again in the aftermath of the 2016 referendum.  So I don't know what you want me to tell you.  You can either accept that this is a negative hit, or you can ask me to get my poms-poms and Union Jack miniskirt out and deliver a jubilant cheerlead (which would be an uncomfortable experience for us both).  I'm not saying it's going to last forever and ever — but that simply this is what the figures bear out over the past few years.  



I'm sorry Deppity, but I'm not going to be cheerleader, and I hope that you respect me enough to know that it's not about me having a dig at the UK (having spent many years in England and having a genuine affinity for ordinary people there).  If people come on here waving numbers around to spin a narrative, I'm usually going to double check their figures and challenge the narrative if I feel it's reasonable to do so.  Is it a bit sad? Yes — yes it is.  But it helps to pass the time for a recent retiree who hasn't quite gotten used to being of no particular use anymore, whose wife hates talking about politics, and whose very politically-engaged children are now scattered in various parts of the world.

Below is a graph from the ONS, the department you unbelievers hang your hat on. Show me where Brexit has had a profound affect!

All I see is a continuation of pre 2008.



https://d3fy651gv2fhd3.cloudfront.net/charts/united-kingdom-gdp-growth-annual@2x.png?s=ukgrybzy&v=202002111158V20191105&d1=19950219">



https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/gdp-growth-annual">https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kin ... wth-annual">https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/gdp-growth-annual

[Conchúr]

I'm still not getting this argument? Its a bit like Chelsea looking at the rest of the Prem and saying "look, lets not compare our performance with Liverpool or Citeh, instead we need to look at our 2012 season performance, when we had a different manager, different team, different competitors and a completely different set of fecking circumstances? What the feck?



Look. Conchur. The world is approaching the end of an economic cycle. A recession is due soon, and probably a big one. We aren't going to have another "golden age" of economics like the 2000s again. In the UK, we've just gone through 3 and a half years of probably the worst conditions imaginable for investment and business confidence. We've gone through all sorts of doomsday scenarios conjured up by remainers to say the UK is completely fecked. We should all be eating grass, living in corrugated iron shacks and the pound should be worth two beer caps by now, according to some remainer forecasts? Yet the UK economy is NOT on its knees yet - it is (according to these figures anyway) STILL performing OK? Its like the old joke. "Reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated"? For god sake. What do you expect? The UK to be on its knees, or performing head and shoulders above Europes long time biggest economy, Germany? Which is it?



Looking at these figures (if they are correct), it doesn't matter what happened in 2012 or 1813, we are comparing the Worlds developed economies concurrently? Not 20 years ago. Not 10 years ago. But NOW. In current circumstances which are common to us all, like being in the Premership in the same season as Liverpool or Spurs. What these figures do possibly reveal is that Europes economies, despite the EU, are in  no better shape (and in Germany's case significantly worse) than the UKs, in CURRENT circumstances. It may change next quarter. But we've all been through the Brexit debacle, the UK, the EU and all those developed economies who trade with us. If there's one indicator these figures show, its that Germany's economy (one heavily reliant on manufacturing and exporting) IS struggling, and Brexit uncertainty (the UK is one of their major trading partners after all) hasn't done them any favours.



I'm getting tired of this remainer attitude, like some spoilt child, "well if we can't stay in the EU then I'd rather see my own country go to hell in a hard cart" than accept the fecking result.

But Deppity — you have literally just said it yourself :  "In the UK, we've just gone through 3 and a half years of probably the worst conditions imaginable for investment and business confidence".  How do you not get my argument that there has been an initial negative impact from Brexit, when you have just acknowledged the environment it has created over the past couple of years ?  What I'm saying isn't even that controversial among many Leavers, who have long accepted the likelihood of a short term hit.  



Like I said before, some of the more theatrical predictions made by certain people about the catastrophes Brexit would bring were counterproductive.  But regardless of that, it is equally counterproductive to constantly hark back to them as a measuring stick for what constitutes success or even "doing OK".  Firstly, a lot of those predictions were predicated on all the tough talk about "No Deal" and — secondly — there were plenty of Remainers, and agencies / academics, that were making pretty reasonable and sober predictions and impact assessments.  Those more sober voices predicted "damage" ...not "doom" — but the more colourful predictions always get more media traction and more attention on forums like these.



I have a lot of time for your posts — really I do.  But I read the above and I ask myself  ...what is it that you want ?  Do you want me to abandon my own sense of independent critical thought and gently blow smoke up your arse — telling you how great everything is and how wonderfully everything is going ?  Forget "Golden Ages" — the UK's growth over the last 3 years has been around the same level as the growth which followed the recession and the worst financial crisis in a lifetime.  Having steadily started to accelerate towards the middle of the decade it quickly slumped again in the aftermath of the 2016 referendum.  So I don't know what you want me to tell you.  You can either accept that this is a negative hit, or you can ask me to get my poms-poms and Union Jack miniskirt out and deliver a jubilant cheerlead (which would be an uncomfortable experience for us both).  I'm not saying it's going to last forever and ever — but that simply this is what the figures bear out over the past few years.  



I'm sorry Deppity, but I'm not going to be cheerleader, and I hope that you respect me enough to know that it's not about me having a dig at the UK (having spent many years in England and having a genuine affinity for ordinary people there).  If people come on here waving numbers around to spin a narrative, I'm usually going to double check their figures and challenge the narrative if I feel it's reasonable to do so.  Is it a bit sad? Yes — yes it is.  But it helps to pass the time for a recent retiree who hasn't quite gotten used to being of no particular use anymore, whose wife hates talking about politics, and whose very politically-engaged children are now scattered in various parts of the world.