Is Boris losing the plot ?

[papasmurf]

You are saying that there is a price moving increase in demand for 2nd had cars because because in just over 6 years time no more new ones will come on the market?  5 out of every 6 cars sold are ICE cars, there will be ICE cars to be had on the used market for decades to come.

Inflation, currency movements and supply chain issues effect the new car market prices and hence the 2nd hand market prices far more than any future ban.

Are people hoarding the cars like toilet paper?

Pull the other one.

Besides, isn't the justification for pushing the ban back that 2nd hand ICE cars are cheaper to buy than EVs for those struggling hard working class families that multi millionaire Rishi Sunak holds so close to his heart?  How can that be true if they are more expensive?

EVs will have to get a LOT cheaper for those struggling hard, plus the guarantees on the batteries need to be transferable to new owners of second hand EVs. (The government is well out of touch as per usual.)
To keep old ICE cars/motorcycles on the road for years ahead is going to mean after market spares being available. (In some cases that is not a problem, in others more than 10 years old it is like finding rocking horse poo and Unicorns.)
I have several times in recent years had to make spares or adapt what is available. (My over 40 year old Honda  Motorcycle and sidecar now has a Landrover indicator solenoid in it.  The other BMW 1991 sidecar outfit has a "bespoke" starting system, due to known problems with the system. It has done 108000 miles.)  
 

[BeElBeeBub]

The increasing price of second hand ICE cars is to do with resistance to buying EVs and the impending ban on the production of diesel and petrol engines. (To replace my current car with a over 10 year old second hand version would cost over £7000.)

You are saying that there is a price moving increase in demand for 2nd had cars because because in just over 6 years time no more new ones will come on the market?  5 out of every 6 cars sold are ICE cars, there will be ICE cars to be had on the used market for decades to come.

Inflation, currency movements and supply chain issues effect the new car market prices and hence the 2nd hand market prices far more than any future ban.

Are people hoarding the cars like toilet paper?

Pull the other one. 

Besides, isn't the justification for pushing the ban back that 2nd hand ICE cars are cheaper to buy than EVs for those struggling hard working class families that multi millionaire Rishi Sunak holds so close to his heart?  How can that be true if they are more expensive? 

[HDQQ]

Boris Johnson lost the plot years ago. If a single moment in history can be pinpointed it was during the lead-up to the 2016 referendum, when he had two speeches prepared, one for use if he decided to back remaining in the EU and the other for if he chose to back Brexit.  He chose the latter, seemingly because that cleared a path to No.10, and now we're living with the mess that created.

[papasmurf]

The incrracig price of ice cars is more to do with the increacing price of cars in general.

As.fornylur point about public charging, you are absolutely right, the infrastructure is pretty poor.

But then who has been in power for the last decade when projects and regulations to put the infrastructure in place could have been in progress?

The increasing price of second hand ICE cars is to do with resistance to buying EVs and the impending ban on the production of diesel and petrol engines. (To replace my current car with a over 10 year old second hand version would cost over £7000.)

[BeElBeeBub]

Different where I live second hand ICE cars have rocketed in price. (EVs are like rocking horse poo and Unicorns where I live due to the high cost and the lack of public charging points that actually work. Also due to the bad to non existent mobile phone  signals in the area the mobile phone apps needed to use a public charging point do not work. It is fun watching the tourists trying to get the 4 charging points at the supermarket 10 miles away to actually work.)

I would suggest that is exactly what I was saying EVs are holding their resale value because they are rare. The price would come down if there were more on the market
The incrracig price of ice cars is more to do with the increacing price of cars in general.

As.fornylur point about public charging, you are absolutely right, the infrastructure is pretty poor. 

But then who has been in power for the last decade when projects and regulations to put the infrastructure in place could have been in progress? 

[BeElBeeBub]

For a start, charging is 75p per KW for fast charging at most charging stations, I can provide receipts to prove this. I charge my clients an hourly rate, if I'm sat at a charging station for an hour that impacts my customers.

I picked med rate charging as an average because the use case isn't to charge exclusively from mway super fast chargers. Even at a fairly scrappy 3miles per kwh that's 25p a mile

If you do charge exclusively for superchargers it will cost you a fair bit, but then you need to compare like for like and use the petrol diesel costs for motorway services, currently £1.80ish a liter.  For an SUV type vehicle getting 30-35mpg that works out around 25p per mile. 

So in the relatively edge case of someone who always charges at the most expensive chargers the fuel costs are about break even vs an ICE equivilent. 

There will always be edge cases where ICE beats EV, the rep doing 700 miles a day for example. But then there will always be cases where EVs beat ICE, eg city deliveries. The question is, what is the balance for the majority. The average daily car milage in the UK is less than 60 miles. Easily doable with electric, in fact we have 2 sets of friends who use old Nissan leafs (about 6k to buy) for daily commutes of about 50 to 60 miles round trip very happily. For full disclosure we also have friends who sold their similar leaf because it didn't have enough range, but their lifestyle put more miles on and the 90m range of the. Leaf was borderline. They never ran out but did get anxious they would. 

It does bring me back towards my argument elsewhere that the national limit be 50mph. That would allow cars (of all types) to get even more mpg. In the case of electric cars it would then allow them to have smaller batteries for the same range which would make them cheaper to buy and quicker to charge. 

Realistically if you could get the charge time down to less than 15minutes per 200 or so miles then it becomes a non issue. 

[papasmurf]

The second hand market is dominated by old Ice cars like yours. The demand for electric cars is so high their resale value is better than Ice cars (ironically the opposite of what was predicted).

Different where I live second hand ICE cars have rocketed in price. (EVs are like rocking horse poo and Unicorns where I live due to the high cost and the lack of public charging points that actually work. Also due to the bad to non existent mobile phone  signals in the area the mobile phone apps needed to use a public charging point do not work. It is fun watching the tourists trying to get the 4 charging points at the supermarket 10 miles away to actually work.)

[Nick]

Cheaper to run than Ice cars.

4 miles pe kwh is an easily attainable efficency. At 66p a. Kwh (assuming you change exclusively at fast public chargers) that's 15p per mile. Of you charge at home you could pay half that. Maybe as little as 3p a mile off peak.

At 1.60 a liter you woukd need to get at least 48mpg to equal the worst case electric car. If it's home or slow charged you need to be hitting 90mpg.

You are talking about capital/upfront costs.

At the moment the cheapest new car you can buy are electric (the ami at £8k). However if you look at "proper" cars (ones that can go on the motorway and take 4 people) then ICE cars are cheaper with a few around £14k.

Interestingly a EU built version of the GM/Wuling miniEV, which is (barely) mway capable and 4 seat is around €13,000 which puts it squarely in the same ball park as the cheapest ICE cars.

The second hand market is dominated by old Ice cars like yours. The demand for electric cars is so high their resale value is better than Ice cars (ironically the opposite of what was predicted).

The roll back back of the ban means less second hand evs will appear on the market for hard pressed families that sunak is so concerned about.

For a start, charging is 75p per KW for fast charging at most charging stations, I can provide receipts to prove this. I charge my clients an hourly rate, if I'm sat at a charging station for an hour that impacts my customers. 

[BeElBeeBub]

Really? Given the upfront costs of buying an EV and installing a charging point. (My petrol driven car cost £1000 second hand seven years ago and has years of life left in it. (I have changed to running it on E5 instead of E10 because it has increased the MPG significantly.)

Cheaper to run than Ice cars.

4 miles pe kwh is an easily attainable efficency. At 66p a. Kwh (assuming you change exclusively at fast public chargers) that's 15p per mile. Of you charge at home you could pay half that. Maybe as little as 3p a mile off peak. 

At 1.60 a liter you woukd need to get at least 48mpg to equal the worst case electric car. If it's home or slow charged you need to be hitting 90mpg.

You are talking about capital/upfront costs. 

At the moment the cheapest new car you can buy are electric (the ami at £8k). However if you look at "proper" cars (ones that can go on the motorway and take 4 people) then ICE cars are cheaper with a few around £14k.

Interestingly a EU built version of the GM/Wuling miniEV, which is (barely) mway capable and 4 seat is around €13,000 which puts it squarely in the same ball park as the cheapest ICE cars.

The second hand market is dominated by old Ice cars like yours. The demand for electric cars is so high their resale value is better than Ice cars (ironically the opposite of what was predicted). 

The roll back back of the ban means less second hand evs will appear on the market for hard pressed families that sunak is so concerned about. 

[papasmurf]

Bevs are already cheaper to run than ice cars.

Really? Given the upfront costs of buying an EV and installing a charging point. (My petrol driven car cost £1000 second hand seven years ago and has years of life left in it. (I have changed to running it on E5 instead of E10 because it has increased the MPG significantly.)

[BeElBeeBub]

My EV has 11K miles on the clock, the battery has a 10 year warranty, it failed after about 8,500 miles and was replaced by Mercedes at a cost of just under £18K. If this was a used car out of warranty someone would have to pay that. This is not like a head gasket going, or a DPC needing to be burnt off, this is total catastrophic failure every time. Seeing as you're into inverters and therefore in the industry you should know the rules about single point of failure and redundancy?

Sounds like you had a lemon. Happens all the time. My mate's brand new golf spent more time in the garage than in the road being fixed in the year he had it before getting pisser off and demanding they take the thing back. 

ICE cars are basically full of single points of failure. There are scores of components that will take your car out of action if they fail. Some will write the car off (cough cam belt) 


To address your earlier pout  about bev cars being expensive vs ice. 

The point is scale again. Bevs are already cheaper to run than ice cars. They will be cheaper as well once the scale and more importantly the market choice arrives. 

At the moment they are a premium product and makers are exploiting that. They are making premium products for premium prices. Hence all the electric suvs and premium saloon cars. The market for "tin box to take kids to school" is left to the cheap ice cars because you can sell an 80kwh executive saloon for more than twice two 40kwh family runabouts.

This is the dynamic Sunak has screwed over. 

[BeElBeeBub]

You have been very lucky (seriously).

It's a combination of the instalation (as i said they can overheat in certain light fittings which dramatically shortens their life) and the quality of the bulb. Some very cheap brands massively overdrive the leds to get the same brightness with fewer (thus cheaper) leds. The life/power curve of leds is exponential so that dramatically increaces the failure rate. 

Interestingly there was a bulb made by Phillips for dubai of all places that took the oppoosite approach and used extra leds running at lower power to be both more efficient and more reliable. The recent changes to the efficency marking will make those bulbs much more availible just go for the (new) A rated ones. 

[papasmurf]

My EV has 11K miles on the clock, the battery has a 10 year warranty, it failed after about 8,500 miles and was replaced by Mercedes at a cost of just under £18K. If this was a used car out of warranty someone would have to pay that. 

Another major reason for not having an EV. 

[Nick]

The early low energy bulbs had significant performance differences from incandescent, the slow warm up being the most prominent. And in the early 00's they were much more expensive.

But, by the time the ban came into effect the LEDs were just coming on stream and in volumes so the price came down quickly.

Which is the point of having a target date, and more importantly *not moving it*.

Car makers are already gearing up for the ban date, investments are being made, supply chains updated etc in anticipation of a certain level of demand by a certain date.

Likewise the heating industry was gearing up. For example my local plumbers merchant, very staid and no-nonsense has literally just put in a display stand and started stocking Panasonic heatpump (the paint was fresh last week). They are doing this in anticipation that all the boilers they sell will be going to be replaced by hps. The info and training is ramping up to make your one man boiler fitter in a van aware of what is happening and what to do.

A that is now up in the air.

As a side note I believe alot of the shorter thane expected life of energy efficient bulbs is due to poor thermal management. Incandecent bulbs are, by their nature, more or less immune to heat build up so allowing them to dissapat heat easily was never a factor in the design of light fittings. When you swap in low energy bulbs they can run hotter than designed and fail early.

We had annoyingly short life out of our communal area bulbs because the enclosures were not allowing them. To cool. On the other hand we have some near 20 year old bulbs in well ventilated shades that are still going strong.

My EV has 11K miles on the clock, the battery has a 10 year warranty, it failed after about 8,500 miles and was replaced by Mercedes at a cost of just under £18K. If this was a used car out of warranty someone would have to pay that. This is not like a head gasket going, or a DPC needing to be burnt off, this is total catastrophic failure every time. Seeing as you're into inverters and therefore in the industry you should know the rules about single point of failure and redundancy?

[Nick]

I have never had to replace a low energy light bulb, the couple of spares have been gathering dust for years.

You have been very lucky (seriously).