Yet more proof.

[Scott777]

I'm sorry you are struggling to follow this.

It's maths heavy, and that's not for everyone.

I recommend you read the links and follow the explanations or find someone you trust who is good at maths to explain it to you.

You said this spring was cold and wet

I said it was warmer than average, especially May and posted met office reports backing up

You said the base.kine (1991-2020) was selective.

I pointed out
a)that is the default baseline used (quite reasonably, the last 30 years)
b)that if you picked any other baseline eg 1971-2000 the anomaly would be bigger.

I cut and pasted some data from the met office showing the mean max and mean min for the various months in the different time periods.

You have failed to understand the maths behind how you can use those figures to show (beyond the fact they are obviously getting warmer) the monthly means are increasing .

Daily means have entered the conversation because they are the base unit for measuring temperature is the maximum and minimum temperature reached during a day.

From this it is possible to calculate the mean temperature for any given monthly or year or season.

I'll say it again, the figures I posted can be used to calculate the mean temperature for any given month (or collections of months)

The fact you struggle to understand that doesn't make it less true.

It does not state "mean" in any temperature columns. 

[Nick]

A) I don't believe there is evidence of such a thing in the records we have.  Have you seen evidence? 

B)are you proposing that we have missed an orbital variation so large it has managed to increase the temperature of the earth at a rate not seen in thousands of years?

a) Have you evidence this has never happened? You're the one shouting that humans are altering the cycle with zero evidence that this cycle is not normal. 


b) We haven't missed anything, we know about these variations, we just don't know exactly what the variations bring. 

• Every 100,000 years, Earth's orbit stretches from nearly circular to slightly elliptical and back. Every ~400,000 years, this change in eccentricity is even more pronounced.
• Every 41,000 years, Earth's axis tilts 2.4 degrees more toward the sun; the obliquity then cycles 2.4 degrees away from the sun.

[Nick]

I'm sorry you are struggling to follow this.

It's maths heavy, and that's not for everyone.

I recommend you read the links and follow the explanations or find someone you trust who is good at maths to explain it to you.

You said this spring was cold and wet

I said it was warmer than average, especially May and posted met office reports backing up

You said the base.kine (1991-2020) was selective.

I pointed out
a)that is the default baseline used (quite reasonably, the last 30 years)
b)that if you picked any other baseline eg 1971-2000 the anomaly would be bigger.

I cut and pasted some data from the met office showing the mean max and mean min for the various months in the different time periods.

You have failed to understand the maths behind how you can use those figures to show (beyond the fact they are obviously getting warmer) the monthly means are increasing .

Daily means have entered the conversation because they are the base unit for measuring temperature is the maximum and minimum temperature reached during a day.

From this it is possible to calculate the mean temperature for any given monthly or year or season.

I'll say it again, the figures I posted can be used to calculate the mean temperature for any given month (or collections of months)

The fact you struggle to understand that doesn't make it less true.

This Met Office warm May was where? In the U.K. or worldwide?

[BeElBeeBub]

a) How do you know this rate of change has never occurred in the last 600 million years?

b) How do you know that it isn't caused by orbital variation? As the Earth approaches the apex of the orbit you would expect a fast rate of temperature change as it's not linear.

A) I don't believe there is evidence of such a thing in the records we have.  Have you seen evidence?  

B)are you proposing that we have missed an orbital variation so large it has managed to increase the temperature of the earth at a rate not seen in thousands of years? 

[BeElBeeBub]

And again you change what you said.  Now again, you say it's daily figures.  Before, you clearly said it's just monthly min and max:


https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/uk-climate-averages/gcpuckhb6
You can calculate the monthly average temp from these "

And your link is not daily figures, its just a min and max.  So stop lying, stop gaslighting, and admit you don't have a fricking clue what you're on about.

I'm sorry you are struggling to follow this.

It's maths heavy, and that's not for everyone.

I recommend you read the links and follow the explanations or find someone you trust who is good at maths to explain it to you.

You said this spring was cold and wet

I said it was warmer than average, especially May and posted met office reports backing up

You said the base.kine (1991-2020) was selective.

I pointed out
a)that is the default baseline used (quite reasonably, the last 30 years)
b)that if you picked any other baseline eg 1971-2000 the anomaly would be bigger.

I cut and pasted some data from the met office showing the mean max and mean min for the various months in the different time periods.

You have failed to understand the maths behind how you can use those figures to show (beyond the fact they are obviously getting warmer) the monthly means are increasing .

Daily means have entered the conversation because they are the base unit for measuring temperature is the maximum and minimum temperature reached during a day.

From this it is possible to calculate the mean temperature for any given monthly or year or season.

I'll say it again, the figures I posted can be used to calculate the mean temperature for any given month (or collections of months)

The fact you struggle to understand that doesn't make it less true.

[Nick]

There isn't any debate that CO2 land temp) have been higher in the past.

They have not in any time humans have existed

And the rise we have seen is an order of magnitude faster than any on that (or the other) graph.

The rate of an event is important. There is a world of difference between going from 0-60 in 10 seconds and doing it in 1 second.

a) How do you know this rate of change has never occurred in the last 600 million years?

b) How do you know that it isn't caused by orbital variation? As the Earth approaches the apex of the orbit you would expect a fast rate of temperature change as it's not linear. 

[Scott777]

The answer is No up until millennium
I don't believe any period has hit 1C per 1,000 years but I'd have to check.
1C per 1m years has been seen before.

The uncertainty on the global temp average (95%) varies between 0.15C in the 1880's and 0.05C since the 1970's. That means the rise seen is significantly greater than could be attributed to measurement error.

That's not what I asked.  I didn't ask about "per".  The question is about change over any period.  Has it changed by 1C over ANY period of a millenium, or milion years, etc.

[Scott777]

I've said this a few times but here we go again.

You are correct that you cannot calculate the monthly mean by taking the absolute hottest temp measured and the min temperature measured , summing them and dividing by 2.

But that is not what those figures are or what was done.

Each day has a max and min and the mean daily is (max+min)/2

Each month has a monthly mean which is the sum of the daily means divided by the number of days.  This is mathematically equivalent to the sum of the maximums plus the sum of the minimums divided by 2x number of days.

The (mean) monthly max or min is the sum of the max or min qof each day's divided by the number of days

Therefore you can also calculate the monthly mean by adding the monthly max and mins then dividing by 2

The same applies to any period mean you wish to calculate.

Eg the mean April temp for 1991-2020 can be calculated by adding the mean max and min temps for the April's 1991-2020 then dividing by 2.

And again you change what you said.  Now again, you say it's daily figures.  Before, you clearly said it's just monthly min and max:


https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/uk-climate-averages/gcpuckhb6
You can calculate the monthly average temp from these "

And your link is not daily figures, its just a min and max.  So stop lying, stop gaslighting, and admit you don't have a fricking clue what you're on about.

[BeElBeeBub]

A quick number crunch and even if we took the absolute worse (best?) case scenario and assumed maximum error in reading, the "per century" rate would be 0.5C between 1880 and 2024.

If you took a more middle of the road approach and just looked since the 1950s it's closer to 1.5C/Cent

[BeElBeeBub]

Ok, now:

has the average ever increased by 1C from day to day?
has the average ever increased by 1C from month to month?
has the average ever increased by 1C from year to year?
has the average ever increased by 1C from Millennium to Millennium?
has the average ever increased by 1C from one million years to the next?
And finally, what is the error of margin for your 1C over 140 years?

The answer is No up until millennium 
I don't believe any period has hit 1C per 1,000 years but I'd have to check.
1C per 1m years has been seen before.

The uncertainty on the global temp average (95%) varies between 0.15C in the 1880's and 0.05C since the 1970's. That means the rise seen is significantly greater than could be attributed to measurement error.

[BeElBeeBub]

No, this is completely false.  You cannot find the average temperature for a month from (max + min ) /2, and you cannot say whether it is notably warmer or colder or anything.  And I challenge you to try.  Imagine April had a min of 0, and a max of 20.  Is that notably warm or cold for April?

I've said this a few times but here we go again.

You are correct that you cannot calculate the monthly mean by taking the absolute hottest temp measured and the min temperature measured , summing them and dividing by 2.

But that is not what those figures are or what was done.

Each day has a max and min and the mean daily is (max+min)/2

Each month has a monthly mean which is the sum of the daily means divided by the number of days.  This is mathematically equivalent to the sum of the maximums plus the sum of the minimums divided by 2x number of days.

The (mean) monthly max or min is the sum of the max or min qof each day's divided by the number of days

Therefore you can also calculate the monthly mean by adding the monthly max and mins then dividing by 2

The same applies to any period mean you wish to calculate.

Eg the mean April temp for 1991-2020 can be calculated by adding the mean max and min temps for the April's 1991-2020 then dividing by 2.

[Scott777]

Roughly 1C since the late 1880

Ok, now:

has the average ever increased by 1C from day to day?
has the average ever increased by 1C from month to month?
has the average ever increased by 1C from year to year?
has the average ever increased by 1C from Millennium to Millennium?
has the average ever increased by 1C from one million years to the next?
And finally, what is the error of margin for your 1C over 140 years?

[BeElBeeBub]

I wonder if you are aligned to these lunatics that throw soup and paint at Stonehenge and aircraft like petulant children? They asked for no new oil and gas licenses to be issued, Labour have just agreed to do that and guess what? They have moved the goalposts cause they've had the rug pulled from under them.

I strongly disagree with their methods and I think they do their cause great harm.

[Scott777]

The met office publishes the average max and min temps for a given period on it's website.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/uk-climate-averages/gcpuckhb6

You can calculate the monthly average temp from these

Effectively
Average max is (H1 + H2.... + Hn)/n
Average min is (L1 + L2.... + Ln)/n

So Average mean can be (Max +Min)/2

From that you can see there was no selectivity to bias the results.

The results being the last winter was notably warmer than the base line

No, this is completely false.  You cannot find the average temperature for a month from (max + min ) /2, and you cannot say whether it is notably warmer or colder or anything.  And I challenge you to try.  Imagine April had a min of 0, and a max of 20.  Is that notably warm or cold for April?

[BeElBeeBub]

Warming by how much over what period?

Roughly 1C since the late 1880