Brexit post virus?

[Hyperduck Quack Quack]

Let's just hope the spread of coronavirus and its effects on those unfortunate enough to be infected can be minimised. If need be, the UK and the EU should agree to hold their relationship in its current state and suspend trade talks until the coronavirus situation has cleared.

[Borchester]

Hamzat suits? are you inferring we are all a bit porky? ::

 :hattip  :hattip

[T00ts]

I think these charts helps to show what people value in times of crisis:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51706225">//https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51706225

It's certainly not cars or flights abroad.

 :hattip  All of which makes sense.

[Barry]

I think these charts helps to show what people value in times of crisis:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51706225">//https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51706225

It's certainly not cars or flights abroad.

[T00ts]

Flybe had a very iffy business model, they've already had a let off from government not collecting the advance passenger tax or whatever it is called.

Now this has come along they will sink, unless bought up by BA or another airline that wants to do their short haul trips.

For those that made post Brexit doom forecasts, they will almost certainly be right. It won't be for the want of the British resolve, it will be for the want of food hygiene in Wuhan, which has allowed this out into the world to seriously affect civilisation.

Because of this virus, all bets are off regarding the future of the economy, that's the UK, Germany, EU, USA, China, India, Russia - the whole wide world is going to contract a few percent in the next year.



I don't think people have got a handle on this. Someone working in the NHS said to me today, "I think people are panicking and the government are making a lot of it".

I just said, "The WHO say 3% die, our government say 80% could be infected, which means over 1 million dead in the UK alone."



The best business to be in will be the undertakers.

That is much more in line with my sentiments. If this was no real big deal the Government wouldn't be looking so serious. I can't help feeling that it is suspected to be far worse than they are letting on. They simply don't know at this stage just how bad it will be not just now but if there is a resurgence later in the year. Talk about living on a roller coaster.

[Barry]

Flybe had a very iffy business model, they've already had a let off from government not collecting the advance passenger tax or whatever it is called.

Now this has come along they will sink, unless bought up by BA or another airline that wants to do their short haul trips.

For those that made post Brexit doom forecasts, they will almost certainly be right. It won't be for the want of the British resolve, it will be for the want of food hygiene in Wuhan, which has allowed this out into the world to seriously affect civilisation.

Because of this virus, all bets are off regarding the future of the economy, that's the UK, Germany, EU, USA, China, India, Russia - the whole wide world is going to contract a few percent in the next year.



I don't think people have got a handle on this. Someone working in the NHS said to me today, "I think people are panicking and the government are making a lot of it".

I just said, "The WHO say 3% die, our government say 80% could be infected, which means over 1 million dead in the UK alone."



The best business to be in will be the undertakers.

[T00ts]

Hamzat suits? are you inferring we are all a bit porky? ::

 :oops:  typo  :oops:

[cromwell]

Flyby is going down now. Many airlines are being hit by cancellations and lack of bookings. Tourism is hit. Governments are going to have a juggling act health v economies. I can see Brexit deals disappearing  in a welter of hamzat suits and oxygen masks.



It may well be that initially any trade deals fall off the radar overtaken by other priorities.

Hamzat suits? are you inferring we are all a bit porky? ::

[T00ts]

Flyby is going down now. Many airlines are being hit by cancellations and lack of bookings. Tourism is hit. Governments are going to have a juggling act health v economies. I can see Brexit deals disappearing  in a welter of hamzat suits and oxygen masks.



It may well be that initially any trade deals fall off the radar overtaken by other priorities.

[Borchester]

Well they wont be shaking hands on anything anytime soon which might give the tories the excuse they need to push Brexit back again  :cry:



So this time 2021 we will be where we are now , guessing .

 

There isn't much to shake hands on. Brexit was about sovereignty and we have that. The rest is about the duty on knicker elastic etc and the civil servants will happily haggle about that until the cows come home.

[T00ts]

Mmh, tricky. It has been 12 years since the last recession so I imagine that we are due another one soon. I don't see that it will have much to do with Brexit which finance wise is pretty small beer. And the idea that the world is going to grind to a halt because of a few folk have caught cold sounds bollocks to me. The UK should have a fairly soft landing because we sell money and services which are flexible. The Germans and other metal bashers should have it worse because heavy industry is fairly inflexible. But then again the Huns have deep pockets so they should be able to weather the storm.



So overall, a slow down in 2021 but zilch to do with Brexit and a lot to do with the Chinese being unable to buy as many Kraut motors as before.

I thought Germany was teetering on the verge of recession. Italy is already in financial hades and will be looking for EU help again. Greece has real border problems, they don't want money just the problem gone. USA are being a bit laid back about covid 19 and prospective Presidents are potential virus victims. Should a democrat get in our deal is dead.

I think we underestimate C19 at our peril, although I agree we are at the mercy of what will be. I think we can stop pretending that it is just a cold. The death rate has risen since it left China and many doubt China's figures.

That apart I can imagine that there could be enormous changes in leadership even in leadership of volatile countries. Interesting times again.

[Streetwalker]

Well they wont be shaking hands on anything anytime soon which might give the tories the excuse they need to push Brexit back again  :cry:



So this time 2021 we will be where we are now , guessing .

[Borchester]

Markets are tumbling, almost every country in the world is perhaps going to feel the financial cost, that's without even thinking about the societal cost. Countries are holding back on exports of essentials like medicines Eg India - paracetamol etc. Other exports have been hit or may well be in the future because workforces and consumers are decimated by sickness/mourning. In the midst of this we are negotiating trade deals.

The timing for our sortie into the big wide world could have been better. The EU in Brussels has 2 cases currently no doubt with more to come. Most world leaders are in the vulnerable age groups. If we had known I do wonder if leave would have won.



So crystal balls at the ready - how do you think our Brexit future is going to look in 2021? What additional problems do you see?

Mmh, tricky. It has been 12 years since the last recession so I imagine that we are due another one soon. I don't see that it will have much to do with Brexit which finance wise is pretty small beer. And the idea that the world is going to grind to a halt because of a few folk have caught cold sounds bollocks to me. The UK should have a fairly soft landing because we sell money and services which are flexible. The Germans and other metal bashers should have it worse because heavy industry is fairly inflexible. But then again the Huns have deep pockets so they should be able to weather the storm.



So overall, a slow down in 2021 but zilch to do with Brexit and a lot to do with the Chinese being unable to buy as many Kraut motors as before.

[T00ts]

Markets are tumbling, almost every country in the world is perhaps going to feel the financial cost, that's without even thinking about the societal cost. Countries are holding back on exports of essentials like medicines Eg India - paracetamol etc. Other exports have been hit or may well be in the future because workforces and consumers are decimated by sickness/mourning. In the midst of this we are negotiating trade deals.

The timing for our sortie into the big wide world could have been better. The EU in Brussels has 2 cases currently no doubt with more to come. Most world leaders are in the vulnerable age groups. If we had known I do wonder if leave would have won.



So crystal balls at the ready - how do you think our Brexit future is going to look in 2021? What additional problems do you see?