A deal has been reached!!!!

[Major Sinic]

Re: A deal has been reached!!!!

Post by Javert » Fri Oct 18, 2019 10:00 am





The issue with this is that as far as I can tell, the vast majority of experienced economists, trade negotiators and experts in international law don't actually believe that the UK will be able to be better off on net terms doing its own trade deals. It might get individual better trade deals with a few countries, but the net overall effect will in the long term most likely be negative.



The problem is that this ignores two important aspects

- In any trade negotiation between sovereign nations, the nation with the biggest market in financial terms is pretty much always in a stronger position. This cannot be bypassed by exceptionalism or saying "our negotiators are better than theirs", as we have seen negotiating with the EU where the deal we have now, is pretty much the same deal that was offered 2 years ago and rejected by the UK government. As far as I can see, if the Prime Minister was buying a car he would be the only person to negotiate the price upwards.

- The vast majority of economists believe that for any nation, the important markets are the ones in geographic proximity to you. Some have argued that this will change, but most believe this will remain the case still for the foreseeable future.



No doubt there are lots of opportunities in growing areas of the world, but this reminds me of companies I worked for where every few years, a new CEO would pontificate about the growing Asia markets and promise that within 5 years, most of our revenue would come from there - this has been said for 30 years and still hasn't happened yet.



In short, in my view this assertion is a huge gamble on the basis that the fundamental rules of international economics will dramatically change during the next few years.

As far as you can tell sums up your post. It is based entirely on your subjective Remainer stance and your assertions about 'vast majorities' are just that, personal assertions. I sense that you personally have minimal experience of international trade.



You overlook unique benefits which alter the relative strengths in negotiations. I refer to the fact our economy is the fifth largest in the world, our financial services infrastructure is a world leader and one of our biggest foreign income earners excluding the EU, our global leadership in technology and medical research, our credit worthiness, our language, are all areas where we have and can offer unique benefits to trade partners.



You also overlook the fact that the EU share of the global economy is shrinking year on year and will be around 13% in 2019 and that includes the UK economy, the second largest in the EU. This is because to 87% of the world view the EU is nothing more than a trade protection block, and an increasingly uncompetitive one, hence the preponderance of excessively high tariffs. This 87% of the rest of world economy provides us with massive trade opportunities, with 31 different national negotiations either agreed in principle or under discussion.



Just because we will not initially at least have a free trade arrangement with the EU does not mean we won't trade. Business people are far more pragmatic than idealists and particularly opposition politicians. They are honest enough to admit their agreements are motivated by self interest - a wonderful motivator.

[T00ts]

Javert you ain't fooling anyone.

 :hattip

[Sheepy]

Javert you ain't fooling anyone.

[Javert]

The most single important aspect for the UK economy is the right to negotiate our own trade agreements. To me every other aspect is secondary. It is my belief that within five years the UK, or the bulk which remains, will economically have eclipsed every other European nation in terms of GDP per capita and individual prosperity. The EU is already showing signs of being a moribund mass slowing down and oblivious to the competition and opportunities elsewhere on our planet. I believe the UK, and yes I suppose I do really mean England, has a great number of cards in its favour.



This has to be better than NO DEAL although if the Remainers through ideology and hubris vote down the deal, I accept NO DEAL is second best.

The issue with this is that as far as I can tell, the vast majority of experienced economists, trade negotiators and experts in international law don't actually believe that the UK will be able to be better off on net terms doing its own trade deals.  It might get individual better trade deals with a few countries, but the net overall effect will in the long term most likely be negative.



The problem is that this ignores two important aspects

- In any trade negotiation between sovereign nations, the nation with the biggest market in financial terms is pretty much always in a stronger position.  This cannot be bypassed by exceptionalism or saying "our negotiators are better than theirs", as we have seen negotiating with the EU where the deal we have now, is pretty much the same deal that was offered 2 years ago and rejected by the UK government.  As far as I can see, if the Prime Minister was buying a car he would be the only person to negotiate the price upwards.

- The vast majority of economists believe that for any nation, the important markets are the ones in geographic proximity to you.  Some have argued that this will change, but most believe this will remain the case still for the foreseeable future.



No doubt there are lots of opportunities in growing areas of the world, but this reminds me of companies I worked for where every few years, a new CEO would pontificate about the growing Asia markets and promise that within 5 years, most of our revenue would come from there - this has been said for 30 years and still hasn't happened yet.



In short, in my view this assertion is a huge gamble on the basis that the fundamental rules of international economics will dramatically change during the next few years.

[Sheepy]

I thought it was all about a united Ireland. Did I miss something?

Best the EU start dipping their hands in their pockets then Toots,it won't come cheap,the ROI still has homeless kids eating from cardboard.

I guess the bullshitters from Dublin university forgot to mention such things.

[T00ts]

For a chap who came worrying about trade,so he told us,it seems there was another agenda all along.

I thought it was all about a united Ireland. Did I miss something?

[Sheepy]

For a chap who came worrying about trade,so he told us,it seems there was another agenda all along.

[GerryT]

To all those who called Boris a liar when he said he was trying to get a deal done, you all got it wrong. Boris against all the odds has secured an equitable deal to leave the EU.



The numbers are tight but if any sanity  and any sense of democracy remains in our ragged and shredded parliament, this agreed deal should be voted through.



Now lets look at the opposition.



Labour have never had a cohesive or consistent policy on Brexit other than to vote against the government regardless.

Quite simply Labour has demonstrated that having voted for Article 50 it is now willing to renege on that commitment purely out of personal and party self-interest. Woe betide any Labour MP with a Leave constituency who votes down this deal; their fate will be far more certain than if Corbyn removes the whip. Labour's Brexit is Brexit in name only; we remain in a customs union, in the single market, subject to the ECJ, we keep paying in billions but we don't have any say any longer because we have 'left'. So no veto, no representation! Neither will we be able to negotiate our own trade agreements to ensure our prosperity, control our fishing grounds, control our own immigration



The Liberal Democrats, what a misnoma; they are neither liberal nor democrats, simply want to revoke Article 50 and sweep away the 2016 referendum as though it never took place. This is a party which once had an integrity which often made Labour and Conservative Parties look like snake oil salesmen.



The SNP have one aim only and make no secret of it, and that is an independent Scotland. Whatever it takes to achieve that goal is in their mind justified, even if it means a result which defies the demands of the majority of the English electorate and is not in the UK ex. Scotland's interests. At least there skulduggery is in the open!



Now the new kids on the wreck Brexit block; the DUP. This disreputable band are refusing to back this deal because a democratic solution has been agree for N.I. and they aren't happy with it. The DUP are not satisfied with the offer of a majority in Stormont they want the right of a DUP veto!!



If this deal does not go through on Saturday or subsequently, we will leave the EU with a worse outcome - NO DEAL. It is highly likely that the EU , if this deal is rejected, will say enough is enough will refuse an extension and I understand Boris, quite understandably has requested this outcome despite the letter he will be forced to write under one of the worst pieces of legislation to ever be passed through Parliament. It is also extremely likely that the Conservatives will win a GE if the rainbow opposition ever agree to one, so it is this deal or NO DEAL.



If we have NO DEAL is will be entirely as a result of the activities of REMAINERS and those who put partisan interests first. Ironic!

This is a pretty good summation, my opinion of Johnson has improved, but he's still a liar, confirmed by court. But anyway, has he pretty much dusted off T.May deal and got that agreed, if this gets agreed then there is a brexit at the end of oct. If this doesn't get passed the likely outcome from Johnson looking for an extension will be refused.

This is a win win position for Johnson, either way he comes out smelling of roses and can call a GE and most likely get a majority.

The one change to the backstop, allowing the people of NI to decide if the backstop stays or is removed is a good compromise. Let's face it, if the people of NI are happy with a border in Ireland that's hard to argue against, if that did happen then a border vote to move the 6 counties into the ROI can be called under the GFA. Either way the people of NI are deciding their future.

If Johnson came up with this then yes hats off, its a cunning plan !

[T00ts]

Scottish Indy ref 2  , the Spanish civil war , Frexit , Grexit and what the hell were we doing signing an EU treaty when we were supposed to be leaving it

Have we? I know it's far fetched but if BJ has a loophole, is the breakneck speed, the struggle for numbers, and the contented look BJ has, really a sign that come 31st we'll leave without a deal after all?



All hell will break out in Westminster let alone the Cons party and the EU.

[Streetwalker]

In the unlikely event this gets passed by Parliament on Saturday, what on earth are we going to talk about after 1st November.

Oh, yes, a General Election!  :clbrt:

Scottish Indy ref 2  , the Spanish civil war , Frexit , Grexit and what the hell were we doing signing an EU treaty when we were supposed to be leaving it

[Sheepy]

A deal a day keeps the doctor away,have we left yet?

[T00ts]

How ridiculously one-sided that is. On another note, Yvette Cooper has had a petition to de-select her signed by 22,000 people. Keep going.

Really? That's well deserved.

[T00ts]

In the unlikely event this gets passed by Parliament on Saturday, what on earth are we going to talk about after 1st November.

Oh, yes, a General Election!  :clbrt:

Bring it on!

[Barry]

In the unlikely event this gets passed by Parliament on Saturday, what on earth are we going to talk about after 1st November.

Oh, yes, a General Election!  :clbrt:

[Cassie]

I thought the Benn act stated that he must request an extension without a deal o with a deal that didn't pass the HofC.

How ridiculously one-sided that is. On another note, Yvette Cooper has had a petition to de-select her signed by 22,000 people. Keep going.