How well is the government handling the pandemic?

[BeElBeeBub]

What we can see is a measured, stepped response to the outbreak. What we have to accept is that no government can protect its citizens from an invisible microbe, 100 microns wide, which is contagious before showing symptoms, mild in some people, fatal in others with no vaccine.

Government and the NHS cannot keep everyone alive through this.

Our figures are rising, although not as rapidly as other countries. I can't criticism the government over this. I just know the NHS are doing all they can, implementing the plan and hoping to minimise the death toll. The government are trying to do the same, without collapsing the economy.

no one doubts that this will get us all eventually.  The key point is that the death rate rockets once the healthcare capacity is exceeded.



The idea of herd immunity and "controlled burn" to get through the pandemic as quickly as possible is perfectly valid, but it is critically dependent on controlling the disease so the healthcare system isn't overwhelmed.



I strongly recommend these two articles

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/">https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics ... simulator/">https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56">https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavi ... 9337092b56">https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56



the second article shows the magnitude of the problem.  The potential hospitalization rate is so much higher than the NHS capacity, things go south pretty quickly.



https://miro.medium.com/max/1600/0*VOG5Nly8WNBycjeF">



Even with the most extreme measures, the peak (sometime in June) will see a demand for 65,000 critical care slots.  As of a few weeks ago, we had around 5,000.  That's the graph that made the government crap itself.  For reference our current stance is back a bit from there and is predicted to result in some 80,000 critical care cases.



This graph was the imperial collage graph, not the author's.



The strategy China, Korea etc took was to "hammer" (their word) the infection hard every time it pops up, then let off a bit when it's controlled.  Effectively it's a very controlled form of the UK government strategy, that involves flexing the controls up and down rather than having a general "wash your hands, don't go to the pub" policy.



Even accepting the government's original mitigation strategy - I cannot fathom why the government wasn't massively ramping up testing.  The who



I get  that it takes time to get facilities and material up and running, but we had that, Korea is testing an order of magnitude more than we are.  They have drive thru testing!  We are always told (with good reason) how we are a hub for pharma and biotech.  Weren't weren't these facilities spinning up weeks ago?  We should be testing many tens of thousands a day now.  We should be random sampling the population to get an idea of asymptomatic spread, reinfection rates, geographic clustering etc.

[BeElBeeBub]

I think this is a time for teamwork and sticking together.  This is a major crisis facing the whole world and we should try to avoid arguing about things, accept that the government is trying to do the best possible and that things will change on a daily basis, and look after each other.



My wife is currently in the isolation ward at the local hospital waiting on Covid 19 test results due tomorrow, and everyone else in my house now has "symptoms consistent with", so I'm one of the ones hoping even more that most people will do their small bit to spread the cases over a longer period.



The poor paramedic who picked my wife up yesterday had only a basic mask and plastic robe and my wife was coughing a lot.  I really hope those masks are more effective than some people are saying.  She mentioned that half of the ambulance staff in our area are already unable to work either because they themselves are sick or they are forced to self isolate.  They have enough for now because many of the others have cancelled their holidays including her, or are doing overtime.



This virus has a death rate of probably less than 1%, but the really scary part is that about 15-20% of people who get it require significant medical intervention and if they don't get that they are at risk of death, so the death rate could go way up if everyone gets it at the same time and hospitals are overwhelmed, and that's not even considering the people with other unrelated illnesses who will die when the hospitals are full of CV19 patients.



Please consider others and do what they are asking - it's not forever and the worst of it will probably be over in 3 months, although some of it may carry on after that.



I can forsee that in about 4 or 5 months from now, you might have to show a "covid immune" certificate to get into the pub or whatever.  I'm sure the civil liberties discussions about that will be endless.



There was discussion on this thread about not enough testing.  In this part of it the government is being a bit political and this is where I do think politics has overrode just telling the truth for the last few days.



At the moment, there is no point rolling out mass testing because the only test they have, it will only come back positive if you have a pretty solid dose of the virus already active in your lungs.  Anyone who is incubating the virus but is not going to get ill for a few more days will test negative, so this will actually make things worse and give people a false sense of security.  



If they mass roll out the virus test, they would have to test everyone not just once, but regularly.



They are trying to perfect an antibody test which will tell whether someone has been recently exposed to the virus - that one does make sense to roll out to a very large number of people, and that will also help hospitals because they can start testing everyone who is admitted, and they can clear staff back to work who test positive etc.



I hope you all stay safe and also keep in mind over 80% of people who get Covid 19 would recover on their own with no medication and only mild symptoms.

Just read this.



Wishing you all a speedy recovery.

[cromwell]

i know cromwell bit slow on the uptake the day as a bit hungover.  :brd:

I'd be hungover too but Lidl had run out of beer

Actually was reading a story of one small business just set up a restaurant new place lot of money invested,stock bought and now can't open.



Fair play to the bloke he is trying to keep the staff on and is using his stock to cook meals for older people unable to shop or isolated in his locale and only charging cost of produce.



Hope when it's all over he's remembered and his business takes off.



The other problem I think are the homeless they are very vulnerable.

[Borchester]

Well it was only a joke,but on a serious note I hope you get all the support you need.

Small businesses are the backbone of this country and collectively employ a lot of people.

And even if they ain't (the backbone of the country that is), this is Tommy's chance to screw the bastard English so he should get stuck in. Apparently the limit is for folk earning up to £2500 per month which may not be much, but still better than a poke in the eye with a dry stick.

[Thomas]

Well it was only a joke,but on a serious note I hope you get all the support you need.

Small businesses are the backbone of this country and collectively employ a lot of people.

i know cromwell bit slow on the uptake the day as a bit hungover.  :brd:

[Thomas]

And if Tommy is dealing with Accounts Office Cumbernauld well, enough said.



Still, this legislation seems a bit rushed and I doubt that HMRC will asked too many questions. Boris does not want to appear as Mr Skinflint right now and there will be just too many applicants to check properly. I reckon our lad should claim whatever is going. The powers that be can only tell him to sod off.

I am borkie dont worry.



HMRC are offering to "reimburse" up to 80 % of "furloughed" workers wages up to a cap of £2500 per month.



Not sure how they "reimburse" you nor how the scheme works in practice as they are still currently setting it up so its all a grey area at the minute , with the detail still to be announced.



VAT and tax payments are apparently being deffered , detail still to be announced.



Business rates holiday  , cash grants for certain sectors , all good headline grabbing figures but little real in depth detail as yet.

[cromwell]

To be fair cromwell my accountant is a wee indian guy  used him for years and he is pretty good and fair.

Well it was only a joke,but on a serious note I hope you get all the support you need.

Small businesses are the backbone of this country and collectively employ a lot of people.

[Borchester]

Probably "look my job is to minimise your tax so I convinced the revenue you earn next to nowt" that'll be £100 please  

And if Tommy is dealing with Accounts Office Cumbernauld well, enough said.



Still, this legislation seems a bit rushed and I doubt that HMRC will asked too many questions. Boris does not want to appear as Mr Skinflint right now and there will be just too many applicants to check properly. I reckon our lad should claim whatever is going. The powers that be can only tell him to sod off.

[Thomas]

Probably "look my job is to minimise your tax so I convinced the revenue you earn next to nowt" that'll be £100 please  

To be fair cromwell my accountant is a wee indian guy  used him for years and he is pretty good and fair.

[Thomas]

Are you not an employee of your company? I know that it is your company but technically you are on wages. What does your accountant have to say?

Aye wife and i are employees of our business , we both take set monthly salaries. We dont pay ourselves dividends .We have 6 other employees.



Im not sure what applys to us and what doesnt borkie. I have been scouring the interweb and looking on the governments websites to make head or tail of it.



Be on the phone to the accountant and various organisations on monday to see whats what. My mate has a garage , and one of our customers has a cottage holiday rental business on a farm , and over the week talking to them among many others no one is sure how the announcements affect them.



I think we need to look at the detail of what has been announced to see what help is there.

[cromwell]

Are you not an employee of your company? I know that it is your company but technically you are on wages. What does your accountant have to say?

Probably "look my job is to minimise your tax so I convinced the revenue you earn next to nowt" that'll be £100 please  

[Borchester]

Employees may get 80% of their salary paid by the government , the self employed are getting zilch.



Confusion reigns.....

Are you not an employee of your company? I know that it is your company but technically you are on wages. What does your accountant have to say?

[Barry]

Were we told not to look after grandkids?  

Smiley noted.

However, me and Mrs are in the group that are likely to get the virus and (hopefully) recover adding to the herd immunity.  :baah:  :baah:  :baah:

[Thomas]

Confusion reigns...

This.



Im not being blase or flippant regarding the coronavirus. Im worried like everyone else , and those who arent worried about the virus itself are worried about other implications such as jobs and income , looking after kids etc.



Ive been going to bed shattered at around nine pm and waking up worried about my small business and many other issues early in the morning all week.



While i admire how both the scottish and uk governments are handling a very difficult situation , those two words above succinctly sum up how many of us feel.



People are socially distancing in certain places , but not in others.



Some people are travelling , others are staying put.



Some grandparents have no choice but to look after grandkids , others are keeping their distance.



Certain business are getting help and financial support , others arent.



Employees may get 80% of their salary paid by the government , the self employed are getting zilch.



Confusion reigns.....

[patman post]

Why don't you give the hospital a ring and see if they have a Dr Phoebe Heveron working for them. I bet they'll say, "Who?".



If people want to go to their second homes, they can. There's no restriction on travel, YET.

Confusion reigns...



Speaking of visitors coming to the county, Visit Cornwall chief executive Malcolm Bell said those driving themselves to cottages, for example, have no reason not to come, but warned against travel to the county by those using public transport and planning to visit "high-volume" areas.

https://www.cornwalllive.com/news/cornwall-news/tourism-boss-says-who-should-3964695">https://www.cornwalllive.com/news/cornw ... ld-3964695">https://www.cornwalllive.com/news/cornwall-news/tourism-boss-says-who-should-3964695



Holiday home owner claims people are fleeing to Cornwall to escape coronavirus

She has cancelled bookings people made for her place, saying that 'human life is more important than money'

https://www.cornwalllive.com/news/cornwall-news/holiday-home-owner-claims-people-3964413">https://www.cornwalllive.com/news/cornw ... le-3964413">https://www.cornwalllive.com/news/cornwall-news/holiday-home-owner-claims-people-3964413



'Visit Cornwall' perform remarkable mid day U turn! Cornwall Council issue statement! Cornwall is closed!

https://www.transceltic.com/blog/visit-cornwall-perform-remarkable-mid-day-u-turn-cornwall-closed">https://www.transceltic.com/blog/visit- ... all-closed">https://www.transceltic.com/blog/visit-cornwall-perform-remarkable-mid-day-u-turn-cornwall-closed



An appeal by Steve Double MP - "Do not come to Cornwall"

https://www.transceltic.com/blog/appeal-steve-double-mp-do-not-come-cornwall">https://www.transceltic.com/blog/appeal ... e-cornwall">https://www.transceltic.com/blog/appeal-steve-double-mp-do-not-come-cornwall



Meanwhile holiday home owners are advertising the safety of isolating in Cornwall:



Coronavirus Covid 19 - tourist industry sinks to new levels

https://www.transceltic.com/blog/coronavirus-covid-19-tourist-industry-sinks-new-levels">https://www.transceltic.com/blog/corona ... new-levels">https://www.transceltic.com/blog/coronavirus-covid-19-tourist-industry-sinks-new-levels



There appears to be enough references to Pheobe Heveron in a medical context on Google to assume there is such a person (one example: Phoebe Heveron, Division of Psychological Medicine and Clinical Neurosciences, Cardiff University School of Medicine, Cardiff, UK). What isn't clear is whether they are actual author of the plea not to visit Cornwall...



Cant believe I actually spent time doing this...