How well is the government handling the pandemic?

[Barry]

Compare with the Irish government infographic



https://assets.gov.ie/73823/075541bb68c146e09a31367b69c76621.pdf">https://assets.gov.ie/73823/075541bb68c ... c76621.pdf">https://assets.gov.ie/73823/075541bb68c146e09a31367b69c76621.pdf

Funny that, they also have Tory blue for "good". Must be a thing out there, Tory = blue = good.  :roll:  :roll:

[Borchester]

up to and including the 1st May there were 33,365 CV deaths in the UK



The last week (25th April to 1st May) had 6,035 deaths from CV.



If we assume that the deaths were evenly spread throughout the week (a conservative assumption as they are likely to be falling over the week) then the total to the end of April is around 32,500.  



The excess deaths up to and including 1st May were around the 45k mark



These are terrible figures.  In a little over a month the death toll has exceeded the usual British marker for national hardship, the Blitz



Obviously we never made a bet so you are not obliged to make any donations.



Data from:



https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=%2Fpeoplepopulationandcommunity%2Fbirthsdeathsandmarriages%2Fdeaths%2Fdatasets%2Fweeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales%2F2020/publishedweek182020.xlsx">https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=%2fpeop ... 82020.xlsx">https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=%2fpeoplepopulationandcommunity%2fbirthsdeathsandmarriages%2fdeaths%2fdatasets%2fweeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales%2f2020/publishedweek182020.xlsx

Maybe we are looking at different sites.



I have taken a macabre interest in this business and my figures for 1 May are 27,510. However I am happy to meet in the middle. One of the foxes on my allotment has had cubs and is keen on boiled eggs. So I will buy £20 of free range for them. Feel free to do the same.

[Borg Refinery]

A friend pointed out that the blue colour used to denote "getting better" or "safe" or "goal" seems to be suspiciously close to the conservative blue colour brand.



Interestingly the vertical bar on the "HM Government" logo is also blue. Is it normal for it to be anything other than black?  I can't remember it being another colour (might be wrong).



Edit: looked up the HMG logo guidelines and it appears the vertical bar can change colour depending on the department.



An off blue is the colour for Dept. health.

Good spot - actually also see this https://www.google.com/amp/s/metro.co.uk/2019/05/13/brexit-party-logo-subconsciously-manipulates-voters-backing-farage-9517861/amp/">https://www.google.com/amp/s/metro.co.u ... 17861/amp/">https://www.google.com/amp/s/metro.co.uk/2019/05/13/brexit-party-logo-subconsciously-manipulates-voters-backing-farage-9517861/amp/



They are masters in marketing and manipulation..

[BeElBeeBub]

I will take you up on that Bebe.



At 5pm on 1 May we will go to https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/">//%20https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/%20 and check up on the UK deaths from Covid 19. If they are more than 30,000 I will give £20 to Battersea Dogs Home. If the figure is less you do the same.



Deal ?

up to and including the 1st May there were 33,365 CV deaths in the UK



The last week (25th April to 1st May) had 6,035 deaths from CV.



If we assume that the deaths were evenly spread throughout the week (a conservative assumption as they are likely to be falling over the week) then the total to the end of April is around 32,500.  



The excess deaths up to and including 1st May were around the 45k mark



These are terrible figures.  In a little over a month the death toll has exceeded the usual British marker for national hardship, the Blitz



Obviously we never made a bet so you are not obliged to make any donations.



Data from:



https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=%2Fpeoplepopulationandcommunity%2Fbirthsdeathsandmarriages%2Fdeaths%2Fdatasets%2Fweeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales%2F2020/publishedweek182020.xlsx">https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=%2fpeop ... 82020.xlsx">https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=%2fpeoplepopulationandcommunity%2fbirthsdeathsandmarriages%2fdeaths%2fdatasets%2fweeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales%2f2020/publishedweek182020.xlsx

[BeElBeeBub]

A friend pointed out that the blue colour used to denote "getting better" or "safe" or "goal" seems to be suspiciously close to the conservative blue colour brand.



Interestingly the vertical bar on the "HM Government" logo is also blue. Is it normal for it to be anything other than black?  I can't remember it being another colour (might be wrong).



Edit: looked up the HMG logo guidelines and it appears the vertical bar can change colour depending on the department.



An off blue is the colour for Dept. health.

[BeElBeeBub]

Compare with the Irish government infographic



https://assets.gov.ie/73823/075541bb68c146e09a31367b69c76621.pdf">https://assets.gov.ie/73823/075541bb68c ... c76621.pdf">https://assets.gov.ie/73823/075541bb68c146e09a31367b69c76621.pdf

[BeElBeeBub]

So, everyone clearer now on what's happening?....



Here's a slide from the government...



https://i.insider.com/5eb84c93e3c3fb43693a9e14?width=1000&format=jpeg&auto=webp">



This is embarrassingly bad.



No Y axis, what does the line represent? What are the various symbols?

[BeElBeeBub]

ONS data to 24th April out https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales">https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... ndandwales">https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales



CV registered deaths to 24th April 27,330

Excess deaths in weeks 13-17 inclusive (5 weeks) ~39k

[BeElBeeBub]

I agree - it's not just the number of tests, it's how quickly can you get the results and act on them.



I suspect that one of the big lessons learned from this will be that setting up regional huge testing centres and shipping all the samples there for analysis is a mistake for a major outbreak - you need to be able to test at large numbers of local sites and get the results within a few hours, not a few days.



This would also open up a lot of other possibilities like:

- Run one or two mass events and then test everybody who attended over the next days to see what happened.  If we find the risk is low, mass events (at least outdoors) could be authorised again.

- Testing everyone who arrives at the airport in real time.

- etc etc

As a thought experiment, if there was a reliable, readily available test they could be conducted at home and a reliable tracking app it might offer a way to reduce the transmission without such tight restrictions in other areas.



Any person testing positive would isolate immediately whilst Thier contexts were notified. In turn they would test and isolate/notify if required.  There might be a mandatory (say) 3 day isolation where you tested every day and only unisolated after 3 clear tests. A furlough scheme would be needed to encourage isolation.



If the process from getting a positive test to your contacts being notified and doing the same was quick (sub 24hr) you might be able to squash outbreaks before they took hold.



The ability to exit isolation after 3 clear tests would also minimise the economic impact



Effectively it would be a very targeted lockdown.



Nationwide lockdown is only necessary because we don't have the precision to do individual lockdown.



As an aside, we need to work out if mask wearing can reduce the transmission enough to allow less distancing in shops, workplaces etc.



For social events (say a restaurant or BBQ) a targeted part of the tracing app would be used.  Say QR codes generated, so all the attendees scan the QR code on the restaurant door, concert enterance etc.  If someone tests +ve everyone has to isolate and test.



This way bigger events would be allowed to happen but it would be up to the individual what level of risk they wish to take. If you go to a packed pub there is a much higher chance you have to go through the annoyance of isolation and test.



A BBQ or dinner with friends at their house would be much lower risk.

[Javert]

The key metric is the capacity of the system to quickly identify infected people and then to trace and test their contacts, isolating and resting as required.

I agree - it's not just the number of tests, it's how quickly can you get the results and act on them.



I suspect that one of the big lessons learned from this will be that setting up regional huge testing centres and shipping all the samples there for analysis is a mistake for a major outbreak - you need to be able to test at large numbers of local sites and get the results within a few hours, not a few days.



This would also open up a lot of other possibilities like:

- Run one or two mass events and then test everybody who attended over the next days to see what happened.  If we find the risk is low, mass events (at least outdoors) could be authorised again.

- Testing everyone who arrives at the airport in real time.

- etc etc

[Javert]

after a week or two you'll be back to normal isn't quite right.

I can also vouch for that on my side as well - I had a does at home - I didn't have to go to hospital but it was quite nasty and even three weeks after most of the symptoms had gone, I felt quite fatigued each day like I had much less energy than usual.  It's now over a month since I recovered and I am fairly much back to normal.  I have started running again and I didn't really notice any difference other than what would be expected from missing a month of training.



Of course, we also know that there are people getting this with no symptoms at all or very mild and just recover straight away, but it seems like there's a significant % (even people with no other current health conditions like myself) who get a fairly nasty illness.



You can see this with Boris Johnson as well where he is clearly only doing the bare minimum.  Some might joke "no change there then", but anyway he is visibly still sick, as well he will be if he was in ICU only a couple of weeks back.

[johnofgwent]

Just stepping back to the government handling.



The government is claiming it has hit it's self imposed target of 100k people tested a day.



Aside from the issues around whether or not that target has been reached, there has been a significant rise in testing.



However, simply conducting tens of thousands of tests a day is missing the point.



The structure around those tests, who is tested and why, the turnaround time, the reliability, the reporting and the follow-up actions are just as, if not more important.



The key metric is the capacity of the system to quickly identify infected people and then to trace and test their contacts, isolating and resting as required.



That figure defines what level it is safe to start loosening the restrictions at and if cases rise, at what point the restrictions need to be tightened.



Much like the number of deaths starts to ramp up as soon as the capacity of the health system is saturated, the infection rate starts to increase as soon as the capacity of the test/trace/isolate system is overwhelmed.



So far the government doesn't seem to have got a grip on this here's an article in the BMJ about how the testing system in England and Wales isn't really generating useful information.



https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1664">https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1664



This is exactly the sort of thing our government should be getting right.  There is no excuse for not getting it right, it's the basic bread and butter of competent government

Since Blair's fucking devolution means the welsh fuckwits are doing their own thing and aren't actually doing any testing, and scrapped their targets, this is fucking pointless unless you are up for razor wire along offa's dyke.

[Borchester]

Would anyone argue we should just man up and get on with it when 0.5% (350kish) of the population could end up with some form of paralysis?

Quite a lot of folk I suspect.



I have no great desire to die. But since there is no cure I can't help but feel that running around like a blue bummed fly lacks a certain dignity. And I imagine that a lot of other folk feel the same way.



Meanwhile, today's casualty rate has been 621 dead and none of them were us, so it looks as though we are onto a winner.

[cromwell]

As an addendum to the posts about "compete recovery rate" I looked up polio, generally regarded as a pretty nasty disease.



Polio has a case fatality amongst adults of about 1 in 1000 (1%) about that of a bad flu.



The kicker with polio isn't it's fatality



It's that 5 in 1000 (0.5%) of victims suffer from life long after effects (paralysis)



Imagine CV19 was "neo Polio", a variant which we had no vaccine and was as infectious as CV19.



Would anyone argue we should just man up and get on with it when 0.5% (350kish) of the population could end up with some form of paralysis?

Sadly people would

[BeElBeeBub]

Just stepping back to the government handling.



The government is claiming it has hit it's self imposed target of 100k people tested a day.



Aside from the issues around whether or not that target has been reached, there has been a significant rise in testing.



However, simply conducting tens of thousands of tests a day is missing the point.



The structure around those tests, who is tested and why, the turnaround time, the reliability, the reporting and the follow-up actions are just as, if not more important.



The key metric is the capacity of the system to quickly identify infected people and then to trace and test their contacts, isolating and resting as required.



That figure defines what level it is safe to start loosening the restrictions at and if cases rise, at what point the restrictions need to be tightened.



Much like the number of deaths starts to ramp up as soon as the capacity of the health system is saturated, the infection rate starts to increase as soon as the capacity of the test/trace/isolate system is overwhelmed.



So far the government doesn't seem to have got a grip on this here's an article in the BMJ about how the testing system in England and Wales isn't really generating useful information.



https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1664">https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1664



This is exactly the sort of thing our government should be getting right.  There is no excuse for not getting it right, it's the basic bread and butter of competent government