How well is the government handling the pandemic?

[papasmurf]

Here's where I got the data for Madrid

https://www.rtve.es/noticias/20200501/mapa-del-coronavirus-espana/2004681.shtml">//https://www.rtve.es/noticias/20200501/mapa-del-coronavirus-espana/2004681.shtml

I don't speak Spanish beyond dos vinos tintos per favor.

[Barry]

OK yes I missed the sarcasm.  However the previous comments were based around known data points that were then extrapolated using reasonable assumptions, whereas your conclusions are completely fabricated.  Can you not see that it's not the same thing?



I also suspect, that if data comes out which shows that Beelbeebeeb is completely wrong and only twenty people have actually died of Covid-19, and the others were just all just an unlucky random spike in death rates, I suspect he will be the first to come back and correct things.

Here's where I got the data for Madrid

https://www.rtve.es/noticias/20200501/mapa-del-coronavirus-espana/2004681.shtml">//https://www.rtve.es/noticias/20200501/mapa-del-coronavirus-espana/2004681.shtml

SInce I last checked it has risen to 3 in a thousand.

[johnofgwent]

This morning, the dickhead who has been handed the job of First Minister in wales declared it would be a good idea if we all left lockdown together.



Well yeah, unless the T@@@ is thinking of erecting machine gun posts at Offas' Dyke, lorries from our suppliers and clients in england are goin gto just slam into any plod roadblocks smokey and the bandit style and then use the "no understand inglezi" routine (or whatever that is in lithuanian, latvian and romanian)

[Javert]

I think DD is right. You don't read things properly.

You missed this:

OK yes I missed the sarcasm.  However the previous comments were based around known data points that were then extrapolated using reasonable assumptions, whereas your conclusions are completely fabricated.  Can you not see that it's not the same thing?



I also suspect, that if data comes out which shows that Beelbeebeeb is completely wrong and only twenty people have actually died of Covid-19, and the others were just all just an unlucky random spike in death rates, I suspect he will be the first to come back and correct things.

[Barry]

Can we see where you are getting this info from?  Have all the people you know been tested?  How are you calculating that half the population have had it?  What do you know that the scientists appear not to, since they are suggesting that a lot less than 10% have had it so far.



I actually hope you're right, but that's not the same as thinking that you are right.

I think DD is right. You don't read things properly.

You missed this:

So I'll go for a bit of guess work of my own.

[Javert]

In one of the worst affected places, Madrid, 1 in 1000 of the population has died.

If your figure of 40k is correct, then about 40 million people in this country have already been exposed. Over half the population are immune.

Most people I speak to have had it, which bears my theory out.

Can we see where you are getting this info from?  Have all the people you know been tested?  How are you calculating that half the population have had it?  What do you know that the scientists appear not to, since they are suggesting that a lot less than 10% have had it so far.



I actually hope you're right, but that's not the same as thinking that you are right.

[Borchester]

Boris can see the downturn in bad news and will be making announcements about relaxing the lockdown soon.

True.



When Boris stumbled, battered but unbowed to the lectern it was like the gates of Valencia opening for Charlton Heston's last charge against Herbert Lom.



BoJo is a complete bullshit artist but fun with it. And he would not have stuck his head above the parapet unless the bug was on the downturn and he could start issuing good news.

 

[Barry]

Are we now going to get into a semantic argument that "making up" is different from "lying"?



If you want I'm quite happy to change my post to





"Then you can come back and apologize for saying I made the numbers up or I will apologize for posting inaccurate numbers"

OK. Let's not go down that road.



What I suggested was that your figures were obtained by a bit of guess work. So I'll go for a bit of guess work of my own.

In one of the worst affected places, Madrid, 1 in 1000 of the population has died.

If your figure of 40k is correct, then about 40 million people in this country have already been exposed. Over half the population are immune.

Most people I speak to have had it, which bears my theory out.



Boris can see the downturn in bad news and will be making announcements about relaxing the lockdown soon.

As the expert on viruses said in PS's video, we have to face this pandemic as the chances of a vaccine are very low.

It still comes down to that herd immunity in the end. That is what will beat the virus.

[Javert]

Nice try at deflection.



We'll wait until the ONS data to 1st May is out, which won't be released until the 12th May, then see if I need to apologize for posting incorrect data or Barry needs to apologize for calling me a liar.



In the mean time if you want to donate £20 to battersea dogs then feel free.

Borchester knows very well what he is doing and he's basically just winding you up.



I saw several analysts last night who've been looking at the numbers - one is saying that the total real death toll up to 2 days ago is likely to be estimated 48,800.  That's when you add in all the people who died from Covid-19 who didn't have a recorded positive test result.  As you correctly point out, we won't know this information until 12th May, and even then i suspect there will be corrections later as I suspect there are quite a lot of Covid-19 deaths that were wrongly put as "pneumonia" and so on and this will also need to be investigated.

[BeElBeeBub]

Please point out where I called you a liar.

No, it was BeelBeBub making up 40,000 deaths, Javert.

He and the leftwaffe thought of a number and doubled it.

Are we now going to get into a semantic argument that "making up" is different from "lying"?



If you want I'm quite happy to change my post to





"Then you can come back and apologize for saying I made the numbers up or I will apologize for posting inaccurate numbers"

[Barry]

Nice try at deflection.



We'll wait until the ONS data to 1st May is out, which won't be released until the 12th May, then see if I need to apologize for posting incorrect data or Barry needs to apologize for calling me a liar.



In the mean time if you want to donate £20 to battersea dogs then feel free.

Please point out where I called you a liar.

[BeElBeeBub]

So you won't put your money where your mouth is?



Sad stuff Bebe.

Nice try at deflection.



We'll wait until the ONS data to 1st May is out, which won't be released until the 12th May, then see if I need to apologize for posting incorrect data or Barry needs to apologize for calling me a liar.



In the mean time if you want to donate £20 to battersea dogs then feel free.

[Borchester]

Did you not read the post at all?



We won't know the actual figure up to the week ending 1st May (tomorrow) until the ONS release scheduled for the 12th May.



The figure for the 1st May (published on the mentioned site on the 2nd May) will probably read around 28k.  The whole point of my post is that the figure given is always an under count because they cannot know how many people died on a given day when the current systems allows for several days between a death and the official registration of the death.



To get an idea, look at the official deaths per day in graph format.  You will see a series of distinct dips every Sunday and Monday.  Does the virus not strike on Sundays and Mondays?  No, the figures are generated by hospitals informing the government how many died in the last 24hrs except for some unfathomable reason some hospitals like to wait until the next of kin are notified before notifying the government.  This takes time over the weekend and dealing with the backlog on Monday.



It is daft, you'd think there would be a more immediate system where the basic details (age, sex, reason) were noted and reported on the day (or next day) but apparently that's beyond the capabilities of a large developed nation.

So you won't put your money where your mouth is?



Sad stuff Bebe.

[BeElBeeBub]

I will take you up on that Bebe.



At 5pm on 1 May we will go to https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/">//%20https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/%20 and check up on the UK deaths from Covid 19. If they are more than 30,000 I will give £20 to Battersea Dogs Home. If the figure is less you do the same.



Deal ?

 

Did you not read the post at all?



We won't know the actual figure up to the week ending 1st May (tomorrow) until the ONS release scheduled for the 12th May.



The figure for the 1st May (published on the mentioned site on the 2nd May) will probably read around 28k.  The whole point of my post is that the figure given is always an under count because they cannot know how many people died on a given day when the current systems allows for several days between a death and the official registration of the death.



To get an idea, look at the official deaths per day in graph format.  You will see a series of distinct dips every Sunday and Monday.  Does the virus not strike on Sundays and Mondays?  No, the figures are generated by hospitals informing the government how many died in the last 24hrs except for some unfathomable reason some hospitals like to wait until the next of kin are notified before notifying the government.  This takes time over the weekend and dealing with the backlog on Monday.



It is daft, you'd think there would be a more immediate system where the basic details (age, sex, reason) were noted and reported on the day (or next day) but apparently that's beyond the capabilities of a large developed nation.

[Borchester]

My prediction (for the week ending 1 May) is the CV official figures (ONS) will turn out to be over 30k and the excess deaths will be closer to 40k than the 26k or so the government are announcing now.



Then you can come back and apologize for calling me a liar, or I will apologize for posting inaccurate numbers  



links

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/">https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/



https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales">https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... ndandwales">https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales

I will take you up on that Bebe.



At 5pm on 1 May we will go to https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/">//%20https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/%20 and check up on the UK deaths from Covid 19. If they are more than 30,000 I will give £20 to Battersea Dogs Home. If the figure is less you do the same.



Deal ?