How well is the government handling the pandemic?

[BeElBeeBub]

No they ain't



At the lower end the Spanish flu was estimated to have called 20 million casualties out of a world population of 2,000 millions.



Currently Covid 19 has killed 230,000 out of a world population of 7,500 millions.



So the Spanish flu killed one in a hundred while Covid 19 can barely manage one out of thirty three thousand.

The IFR of 1919 flu was estimated about 1% the R0 value around 1.8 (IQR 1.5-2.3%)



CV19 has an estimated IFR of around 1% and an R0 of somewhere between 2.2 and 3.5



So CV19, is more infectious than 1919 and about as deadly.  The age profile of the 1919 flu was different with a distinct elevation in the 20-50 age range and very quick progression from initial symptoms to death.  I don't believe there were any noticeable long term physical effects for the recovered.



CV19 seems to have a much broader impact across the age range, effectively doubling an individual's risk of death.  For the young, this is doubling of a small(ish) number.  Obviously for the elderly this is much more significant. We are still discovering what the long term effects on health will be for the recovered.  We have hints that there can be lung damage, other organ issues and in children an increased risk of a rare inflammatory response.



Bear in mind the UK death toll of at least 25k (suspected 40k) in just a few weeks is *with* all the mitigating measures we took.

[Borchester]

Right, let's show my working.



We'll use the 28th April as the bench mark



On the government website the official deaths figure declared on the 28th was 25,302



If we look back on the same website, we can see that on the 17th April the same official figure was 16,879



However that figure is incomplete as it only covers deaths registered by that day.  The registration is often delayed (eg weekends)



The ONS do a more complete roundup, but they only publish the figures for a given week, 11 days after the end of that week (to allow time for all the registrations to occur).



So we now know that on the 17th April the actual official number of CV deaths was 20,909 (vs the published at the time 16,879)



That is to say that the government figures are only 80% of the real figures.



On that basis the figure on the 28th was probably closer to 31,300



However, there is more.



Until yesterday the "daily" figures only included deaths in hospital.



Even so the official number of CV deaths outside hospital is much lower than other countries. Other countries are seeing a far higher outside hospital death rates (around 50/50 hospital/non-hospital) so the UK's apparent low number of deaths outside hospital is very suspect.



If we look at the ONS all deaths figures we can see that the deaths per week in the UK were running a little below the 5 year average up until week 13 (20th March).  At that point the number of deaths per week climbed well above the long term trend.  These deaths are "excess" deaths over the "background" deaths.



It could be argued that some of those "excess" deaths are not from CV, and some certainly aren't.  On the other hand there will also be a drop in road deaths, work place deaths etc.



If we did assume that excess deaths were down to CV, then the ratio of hospital/non-hospital deaths in the UK would be much closer to the 50/50 split we see elsewhere.



By 17th April, there had been 26,943 excess deaths.



If all those excess deaths were CV then the official figure is only about 60% of the real figure.



That would imply the real death toll by 28th April was around 40k, we just won't know it until the ONS figures on the 12th May.



A similar set of calculations was carried out by the Financial Times (a famously left wing paper) and other journalists.



Shall we wait until the 12th July to see what the more accurate figures are and if they are closer to 40k or 20k?



My prediction (for the week ending 1 May) is the CV official figures (ONS) will turn out to be over 30k and the excess deaths will be closer to 40k than the 26k or so the government are announcing now.



Then you can come back and apologize for calling me a liar, or I will apologize for posting inaccurate numbers  



links

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/">https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/



https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales">https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... ndandwales">https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales

[BeElBeeBub]

No, it was BeelBeBub making up 40,000 deaths, Javert.

He and the leftwaffe thought of a number and doubled it.

Right, let's show my working.



We'll use the 28th April as the bench mark



On the government website the official deaths figure declared on the 28th was 25,302



If we look back on the same website, we can see that on the 17th April the same official figure was 16,879



However that figure is incomplete as it only covers deaths registered by that day.  The registration is often delayed (eg weekends)



The ONS do a more complete roundup, but they only publish the figures for a given week, 11 days after the end of that week (to allow time for all the registrations to occur).



So we now know that on the 17th April the actual official number of CV deaths was 20,909 (vs the published at the time 16,879)



That is to say that the government figures are only 80% of the real figures.



On that basis the figure on the 28th was probably closer to 31,300



However, there is more.



Until yesterday the "daily" figures only included deaths in hospital.



Even so the official number of CV deaths outside hospital is much lower than other countries. Other countries are seeing a far higher outside hospital death rates (around 50/50 hospital/non-hospital) so the UK's apparent low number of deaths outside hospital is very suspect.



If we look at the ONS all deaths figures we can see that the deaths per week in the UK were running a little below the 5 year average up until week 13 (20th March).  At that point the number of deaths per week climbed well above the long term trend.  These deaths are "excess" deaths over the "background" deaths.



It could be argued that some of those "excess" deaths are not from CV, and some certainly aren't.  On the other hand there will also be a drop in road deaths, work place deaths etc.



If we did assume that excess deaths were down to CV, then the ratio of hospital/non-hospital deaths in the UK would be much closer to the 50/50 split we see elsewhere.



By 17th April, there had been 26,943 excess deaths.



If all those excess deaths were CV then the official figure is only about 60% of the real figure.



That would imply the real death toll by 28th April was around 40k, we just won't know it until the ONS figures on the 12th May.



A similar set of calculations was carried out by the Financial Times (a famously left wing paper) and other journalists.



Shall we wait until the 12th July to see what the more accurate figures are and if they are closer to 40k or 20k?



My prediction (for the week ending 1 May) is the CV official figures (ONS) will turn out to be over 30k and the excess deaths will be closer to 40k than the 26k or so the government are announcing now.



Then you can come back and apologize for calling me a liar, or I will apologize for posting inaccurate numbers  



links

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/">https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/



https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales">https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... ndandwales">https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales

[cromwell]

Well yes there are things to smile about,argue over whether the swedes are doing well....or not and if this is a deadly virus or a runny nose,however at the end of the day it is human beings we are talking about.

[papasmurf]

Well possibly. I have no doubt that the current epidemic could be wiped out over night had Boris Johnson not sold the vaccines to the American and Russian germ warfare laboratories who are present busy poisoning the water supply in all the UK Care Homes.

That is funny, (There are some  tin-foil hat wearing Faraday cage dwelling conspiracy theorists who would take it seriously though.)

[Borchester]

Well because of advances in medicine people are less likely to die,however then there was the imperative to sell armaments,prosecute a war and make money and now the imperative is the economy protecting share holdings and trying to appear not bloody useless,it's what govts do.

Well possibly. I have no doubt that the current epidemic could be wiped out over night had Boris Johnson not sold the vaccines to the American and Russian germ warfare laboratories who are present busy poisoning the water supply in all the UK Care Homes.

[papasmurf]

No they ain't



At the lower end the Spanish flu was estimated to have called 20 million casualties out of a world population of 2,000 millions.



Currently Covid 19 has killed 230,000 out of a world population of 7,500 millions.



So the Spanish flu killed one in a hundred while Covid 19 can barely manage one out of thirty three thousand.

The "Spanish" flu pandemic lasted four years.  The current pandemic has only lasted a few months, (so far.)

[cromwell]

No they ain't



At the lower end the Spanish flu was estimated to have called 20 million casualties out of a world population of 2,000 millions.



Currently Covid 19 has killed 230,000 out of a world population of 7,500 millions.



So the Spanish flu killed one in a hundred while Covid 19 can barely manage one out of thirty three thousand.

Well because of advances in medicine people are less likely to die,however then there was the imperative to sell armaments,prosecute a war and make money and now the imperative is the economy protecting share holdings and trying to appear not bloody useless,it's what govts do.

[papasmurf]

Well there are those covering their backsides who are doing their best to disguise the actual death toll.

Fortunately they are failing. They is always a lag in the data anyway.

[cromwell]

No, it was BeelBeBub making up 40,000 deaths, Javert.

He and the leftwaffe thought of a number and doubled it.

Well there are those covering their backsides who are doing their best to disguise the actual death toll.

[Borchester]

The figures for this (infectiousness and fatality) are coming out about as bad, if not slightly worse, than the 1919 "Spanish" Flu epidemic.

No they ain't



At the lower end the Spanish flu was estimated to have called 20 million casualties out of a world population of 2,000 millions.



Currently Covid 19 has killed 230,000 out of a world population of 7,500 millions.



So the Spanish flu killed one in a hundred while Covid 19 can barely manage one out of thirty three thousand.

[Javert]

No, it was BeelBeBub making up 40,000 deaths, Javert.

He and the leftwaffe thought of a number and doubled it.

Right, and what I'm saying is the Beelbebub's number is pretty close to correct, when you look at the ONS stats and extrapolate them to the few additional days after their effective dates.

[Barry]

No, it was BeelBeBub making up 40,000 deaths, Javert.

He and the leftwaffe thought of a number and doubled it.

[Javert]

Well, you really were making the figures up.

The government today have changed the way figures are released, giving CV19 deaths "in all settings" and it is is still only 26,097.

They obviously had to do this to quieten down people who were making up the figures.



Of course, this will cause a massive blip of about 3,700 in the figures.

The numbers given out yesterday are not all deaths in all settings.  The numbers they gave out yesterday were only including people who have tested positive for Covid-19.  It doesn't even include people who have Covid-19 on their death certificate but didn't get tested.  We already saw ONS figures early this week that don't even tally with that number from yesterday and are much higher.



This is not people making up the data - this is actual ONS data.



One of the two experts actually admitted this fact in one of the answers to a question in the Q&A part.



As I've pointed out many times on these threads, the antigen test has a significant false negative results rate - yesterday yet again there was an ICU doctor interviewed on ITV news who stated that the false negative rate is "15-25%".



Look at the existing Excess death data that we already have.

[Barry]

France also counts both deaths in and out of hospital in it's total.  The UK total only counts in hospital deaths.  When you take out of hospital death into account the UK's total of 40k is way ahead of France.

Well, you really were making the figures up.

The government today have changed the way figures are released, giving CV19 deaths "in all settings" and it is is still only 26,097.

They obviously had to do this to quieten down people who were making up the figures.



Of course, this will cause a massive blip of about 3,700 in the figures.