What if Deal passes but subsequent HOC or Stormont votes are rejected

[Javert]

That's not my understanding. Lets say the vote tomorrow accepts this deal and brexit happens at the end of the month. Then in 4yrs NI votes to change the NI - ROI arrangement. Then a border goes up on the Island of Ireland and NI then joins GB in whatever relationship it has with the EU, but the no vote in NI wouldn't affect the relationship in any way between the UK and EU. It would cause problems on the island of IRL.

Some say that this deal goes against the GFA, as further border infrastructure in Ireland would appear and I would agree to a point. But the difference with this and say the suggestion of having a time limited backstop is that the decision to introduce a border in IRL is by the people of NI. Logically how could you force the people of NI if a majority of both communities voted NO to this arrangement.

This is one thing I'm not sure on, for NI to vote out of this arrangement, is it a majority of both communities that get a say or a simple overall majority in NI.

Thanks Gerry assuming you are correct that makes it more clear.

[GerryT]

That would be very clever!

That's not my understanding. Lets say the vote tomorrow accepts this deal and brexit happens at the end of the month. Then in 4yrs NI votes to change the NI - ROI arrangement. Then a border goes up on the Island of Ireland and NI then joins GB in whatever relationship it has with the EU, but the no vote in NI wouldn't affect the relationship in any way between the UK and EU. It would cause problems on the island of IRL.

Some say that this deal goes against the GFA, as further border infrastructure in Ireland would appear and I would agree to a point. But the difference with this and say the suggestion of having a time limited backstop is that the decision to introduce a border in IRL is by the people of NI. Logically how could you force the people of NI if a majority of both communities voted NO to this arrangement.

This is one thing I'm not sure on, for NI to vote out of this arrangement, is it a majority of both communities that get a say or a simple overall majority in NI.

[Javert]

The overriding factor here is that leave won the vote!!!!

Doesn't matter - if half the country are angry and don't want to cooperate, that's the reality - you can say it's not fair, they should do what they are told etc etc.  Even if you are correct, it doesn't matter.  The leave side has completely failed to get the remain side on board with anything.  



I heard an good program a while back where someone was making this exact point - it's actually the leave side who won the referendum who should have been trying to bring remainers on board for the last 3 years instead of insulting and ignoring them.  In a situation like this it's the winners who have to bring the losers back into the fold - rather than doing this they deliberately increased the divisions.

[Cassie]

If you want to call it hypocrisy that is fine, but the point is that two large groups who want opposite things will not come together because one of the group gets everything and the other gets nothing.  If half want one thing and half want another, there should be a compromise.  A no deal Brexit is not a compromise.  The hyprocrisy is in claiming that leavers can feel continuously angry whilst remainers should just change their opinion to support leave.

The overriding factor here is that leave won the vote!!!!

[Javert]

Can you not see the hypocricy of that? People who won the 2016 vote have had to stand by and watch a parliament who gave us the vote, then agreed to A50, do everything possible to undermine what the rest of us see as democracy. At what point is it going to be clear to everyone that we are going out, deal or no deal, whether any of us like it or not?

If you want to call it hypocrisy that is fine, but the point is that two large groups who want opposite things will not come together because one of the group gets everything and the other gets nothing.  If half want one thing and half want another, there should be a compromise.  A no deal Brexit is not a compromise.  The hyprocrisy is in claiming that leavers can feel continuously angry whilst remainers should just change their opinion to support leave.

[Ciaphas]

In response to the second question.



If Northern Ireland chooses (Using this term very loosely since it's not the people choosing directly as far as I'm aware) then they are choosing to end the Good Friday Agreement and leave the EU Customs Union.



Perhals I'm missing something but I'm unclear on why this would comprimise the agreement between the EU and UK? Presumably the EU and UK wouldn't have agreed to this part of the deal in principle if it was going to threaten the wider deal.

[T00ts]

Well not really - because even if they achieved their aim, it would leave about half the country incredibly angry.  As I posted earlier, I don't mind Brexit being achieved according to representative democracy, correctly voted in the HOC.



A no deal Brexit, achieved by a legal trick and loophole, totally against the spirit of the will of parliament, would leave remainers feeling betrayed for many years to come, just as leavers complain now of betrayal.  All of the things we are talking about for the future of the country could only happen if the majority of people are pulling in roughly the same direction.  If you have half the population so angry that they are actively going out of their way to thwart everything you want to do, the country will not be successful, Brexit or no Brexit.

Can you not see the hypocricy of that? People who won the 2016 vote have had to stand by and watch a parliament who gave us the vote, then agreed to A50, do everything possible to undermine what the rest of us see as democracy. At what point is it going to be clear to everyone that we are going out, deal or no deal, whether any of us like it or not?

[Cassie]

Well not really - because even if they achieved their aim, it would leave about half the country incredibly angry.  As I posted earlier, I don't mind Brexit being achieved according to representative democracy, correctly voted in the HOC.



A no deal Brexit, achieved by a legal trick and loophole, totally against the spirit of the will of parliament, would leave remainers feeling betrayed for many years to come, just as leavers complain now of betrayal.  All of the things we are talking about for the future of the country could only happen if the majority of people are pulling in roughly the same direction.  If you have half the population so angry that they are actively going out of their way to thwart everything you want to do, the country will not be successful, Brexit or no Brexit.

That's been happening to leavers ever since the vote was won. Look at the under hand tricks Parliament has played to get it's way.

[Javert]

That would be very clever!

Well not really - because even if they achieved their aim, it would leave about half the country incredibly angry.  As I posted earlier, I don't mind Brexit being achieved according to representative democracy, correctly voted in the HOC.



A no deal Brexit, achieved by a legal trick and loophole, totally against the spirit of the will of parliament, would leave remainers feeling betrayed for many years to come, just as leavers complain now of betrayal.  All of the things we are talking about for the future of the country could only happen if the majority of people are pulling in roughly the same direction.  If you have half the population so angry that they are actively going out of their way to thwart everything you want to do, the country will not be successful, Brexit or no Brexit.

[Cassie]

I can't find firm information so does anyone have reliable links on the following:



- What happens if the deal passes tomorrow, but one or more of the subsequent votes required to actually formalise everything in law don't pass?  I've seen rumours that the ERG will deliberately vote yes tomorrow, but then vote down the subsequent legislation.  This could bypass the Benn act and cause no deal Brexit on 10/31 if no way is found to stop it.  



- What happens if the deal is completely passed, we leave the EU, but 4 years down the line the Stormont votes "no"?  I've seen that Stormont gets to vote on it every 4 years, but what if they vote against it?  Does this mean that Stormont has the power to cause a no deal Exit every 4 years in perpetuity?  I haven't seen the details on this yet so are there any links?



Edit:  If this does indeed mean that Stormont can trigger a no deal Brexit every 4 years, I would ask those who want Brexit, but don't want a no deal Brexit, whether they are happy with NI being able to hold the entire country to ransom every 4 years.

That would be very clever!

[T00ts]

Look what can happen in a week in politics. The mind blows at the thought of 4 years!

[Borchester]

- What happens if the deal is completely passed, we leave the EU, but 4 years down the line the Stormont votes "no"?  I've seen that Stormont gets to vote on it every 4 years, but what if they vote against it?  Does this mean that Stormont has the power to cause a no deal Exit every 4 years in perpetuity?  I haven't seen the details on this yet so are there any links?

They probably will. I imagine that the idea is that all the UK except Ulster leaves the EU, which effectively means that the mainland has a no deal Brexit. And in 4 years NI can decide if you wants to stay or go. If they stay in the EU it won't matter very much because most of wrinkles will have been worked out and if they go, well, we have plenty of religious and political bigots on the mainland so a few Ulster men and women won't be missed.

[Javert]

I can't find firm information so does anyone have reliable links on the following:



- What happens if the deal passes tomorrow, but one or more of the subsequent votes required to actually formalise everything in law don't pass?  I've seen rumours that the ERG will deliberately vote yes tomorrow, but then vote down the subsequent legislation.  This could bypass the Benn act and cause no deal Brexit on 10/31 if no way is found to stop it.  



- What happens if the deal is completely passed, we leave the EU, but 4 years down the line the Stormont votes "no"?  I've seen that Stormont gets to vote on it every 4 years, but what if they vote against it?  Does this mean that Stormont has the power to cause a no deal Exit every 4 years in perpetuity?  I haven't seen the details on this yet so are there any links?



Edit:  If this does indeed mean that Stormont can trigger a no deal Brexit every 4 years, I would ask those who want Brexit, but don't want a no deal Brexit, whether they are happy with NI being able to hold the entire country to ransom every 4 years.