Up to 50% of the UK population may have had Coronavirus - Oxford Uni

[Thomas]

Give the death rate in the over 70s (Me), in theory that could kill 1.2 million without adding in the other at serious risk categories.

Well the theory i saw about the herd immunity plan orignally is that it would potentially kill half a million , but i wouldnt disagree as so much is still an unknown.

[papasmurf]

We wont know moray , because as many have pointed out  , mass testing has been so poor , that its going to be difficult to tell and collect data.On top of that , as we know the original uk government plan was to infect the popualtion under the herd immunity plan , which was later binned by the government when they started having pictures painted of hundreds of thousands of elderly and vulnerable dying .Under this plan , many pointed out there was no need for testing on a large scale that we are witnessing elsewhere.

Give the death rate in the over 70s (Me), in theory that could kill 1.2 million without adding in the other at serious risk categories.

[Thomas]

Just  been checking and the first case in the UK was in January and by mid Feb there were 13 confirmed cases. The question then is, how many unconfirmed cases were there? Could the disease have spread throughout the UK by then?

How long is the incubation period?

I think it possible that covid 19 had spread far and wide weeks ago. From what i read , again on twatter , although the first confirmed case was in england the end of january , there were reports of a family in surrey who had been ski ing in the alps over the christmas period displaying symptoms similar when they came back the first weeks of january.



We wont know moray , because as many have pointed out  , mass testing has been so poor , that its going to be difficult to tell and collect data.On top of that , as we know the original uk government plan was to infect the popualtion under the herd immunity plan , which was later binned by the government when they started having pictures painted of hundreds of thousands of elderly and vulnerable dying .Under this plan , many pointed out there was no need for testing on a large scale that we are witnessing elsewhere.

[morayloon]

The authorities however say that it was March before the disease reached the UK

Just  been checking and the first case in the UK was in January and by mid Feb there were 13 confirmed cases. The question then is, how many unconfirmed cases were there? Could the disease have spread throughout the UK by then?

How long is the incubation period?

[morayloon]

I now wonder (along with countless others) if that was the virus. At the time I dealt with it, slowly, and it did inconvenience me, but it didn't have the fear and worry that I have now around this Covid 19. I guess time will tell, but I am starting to wonder if I've already had it, and recovered

I had some of the symptoms of covid 19 back in mid February. The illness was, I would say, mild but lasted about 10 days. I wondered then, and still do, if it was coronavirus. The authorities however say that it was March before the disease reached the UK. I accepted their info but the question stayed with me - did I have covid19 6 weeks ago?

I suppose we'll have to wait for the test that tells if you have had the infection or not. I am hoping that it was the virus and that it cannot strike twice!

[Thomas]

 Was yours the usual time?

What the ususal one day in bed manflu time? ::



I was ill for about a week roughly scott , my wife said it felt like a month though. :roll: No feckin sympathy in this house let me tell you.

[Scott777]

dry cough , sore arms and legs and feeling tired as hell . Had the symptoms about a week maybe just over.



Hard to tell though scott .It could have just been the ordinary man flu.

The reason I'm sure I had it is because it lasted in total 14 days.  I've never in my life been ill from virus or infection for that long, and there was no sneezing / runny nose, also very strange.  Was yours the usual time?

[Thomas]

Yes, testing is crucial, although at least the guv have made that clear.  I think it has begun, and antibody test will be soon.  So, what were your symptoms, and how long?

dry cough , sore arms and legs and feeling tired as hell . Had the symptoms about a week maybe just over.



Hard to tell though scott .It could have just been the ordinary man flu.

[Scott777]

In my case it is thick medical file will find out at post mortem.

Back in the early  1980s I collapsed at home totally paralysed unable to speak, but I did know what was happening around me.(I recovered 10 minutes later.)

Urgent trip to see my then doctor, blood and other tests. All I ever got told was I had a "rare and unusual virus that had seated itself at the top of my spinal column."

I was hospitalised with water intoxication, the doctor who attended even advised to drink less water in future, with no more advice, and yet after the event, the hospital deny knowing anything about water intoxication, as if it does not exist.  If I had died, I doubt it would be on any record.

[Scott777]

Nevertheless, although Oxford's may be an overestimate, there is some reason at least to believe Imperial's are a significant underestimate.



Conclusion



It is highly doubtful we will be so fortunate as to have such vast numbers having had the virus without noticing, and there is nothing peer reviewed which suggests Imperial is largely wrong.

Thanks for this info.  It makes sense, all except for "having had the virus without noticing", because it's likely many people did notice symptoms, before the news was everywhere, or just didn't want to report it, or tell anyone, or care much.

[Scott777]

I wouldnt be suprised either by the OP. I thought i had the symptoms about a month ago , althought its difficult to tell as people have said without any testing.

Yes, testing is crucial, although at least the guv have made that clear.  I think it has begun, and antibody test will be soon.  So, what were your symptoms, and how long?

[Thomas]

Coronavirus – could half the population already have had the virus?!



Oxford University is perhaps the foremost university in the world, but its numbers predicting the number of people in the UK who have had COVID-19 are a wild outlier to say the least. Nevertheless, they are another suggestion at least that rather more people have had the virus that the UK Government's own advice suggests.



The UK Government's numbers are based on modelling from Imperial College London, whose online course on COVID-19 is ongoing and extremely useful. The models suggest two fairly crude estimates for the UK total (these do not work so well sub-regionally) – that the number of people who have or have had COVID-19 has risen exponentially to now around 50 times the number "confirmed", or 1000 per death. This would suggest the number who have or have had it is 500,000 across the UK (roughly 0.75% of the population), although it varies significantly regionally. There are good reasons (many of which are outlined in the course) for these models; they are the most detailed and expert we have and they appear consistent with what we know from the early phases of the outbreak in China; so we should not dismiss them.



Nevertheless, although Oxford's may be an overestimate, there is some reason at least to believe Imperial's are a significant underestimate.

[/b]

Conclusion



It is highly doubtful we will be so fortunate as to have such vast numbers having had the virus without noticing, and there is nothing peer reviewed which suggests Imperial is largely wrong.



But it is early days in tracking this virus so we do need to know with certainty. It is very wise of the UK Government and others to pursue blood testing for who has had the virus, not just who has it, for a full picture.



Ultimately, however, the sooner we get some random testing the better. That would give us a very clear idea of just how many people have the virus at any one time – and would help guide policy not just on when to raise lockdown, but also the value and efficacy of self-isolation after restrictions are lifted.



It could, whisper it quietly, even make herd immunity a viable solution...

[/b]





https://ianjamesparsley.wordpress.com/2020/03/25/coronavirus-could-half-the-population-already-have-had-the-virus/">https://ianjamesparsley.wordpress.com/2 ... the-virus/">https://ianjamesparsley.wordpress.com/2020/03/25/coronavirus-could-half-the-population-already-have-had-the-virus/

[Thomas]

UK's scientific advice on coronavirus is a cause for concern

[/b]

As the covid-19 pandemic rages on, governments around the world are turning to teams of scientists for guidance on how to proceed. The UK government finally published the scientific advice it has received on Friday 20 March.



At first, most commentators welcomed the transparency. But closer reading of the documents made available online suggests a few causes for concern. The strongest advice from the World Health Organization (WHO) on controlling outbreaks of the coronavirus – testing – barely gets a mention, for example. And the guidance seems to lean heavily on a single model of the outbreak – which some scientists suggest contains systematic errors.



The UK government is advised by a panel of epidemiologists, infectious disease modellers, virologists and medical doctors, as well as groups that focus on pandemic influenzas. The exact members vary, a government representative told New Scientist.



The dozen reports compiled by this group summarise what is known about the virus and its spread, and the likely impact of any government measures taken to prevent it. Social distancing comes up several times. But there is barely a mention of widespread testing, despite the WHO director general's pleas to all countries to "test, test, test".

[/b]

Part of the problem is that communications from the government haven't been clear enough, says Hunter. One way to clarify would be to swap the use of vague terms like "social distancing" with clear advice, such as to keep a physical, 2-metre distance between yourself and others.



"It is difficult to keep up with the advice," he says. "The advice from the government has changed – usually for good reasons – but this generates confusion in people... even in me."

[/b]



Read more: https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238186-uks-scientific-advice-on-coronavirus-is-a-cause-for-concern/#ixzz6Hmagn3eG">https://www.newscientist.com/article/22 ... z6Hmagn3eG">https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238186-uks-scientific-advice-on-coronavirus-is-a-cause-for-concern/#ixzz6Hmagn3eG





Another good article from monday regarding the current situation.



I wouldnt be suprised either by the OP. I thought i had the symptoms about a month ago , althought its difficult to tell as people have said without any testing.

[papasmurf]

:thup:

It makes it very hard to know what people are actually dying of.  Perfect for the MSM.

In my case it is thick medical file will find out at post mortem.

Back in the early  1980s I collapsed at home totally paralysed unable to speak, but I did know what was happening around me.(I recovered 10 minutes later.)

Urgent trip to see my then doctor, blood and other tests. All I ever got told was I had a "rare and unusual virus that had seated itself at the top of my spinal column."

[johnofgwent]

:thup:

It makes it very hard to know what people are actually dying of.  Perfect for the MSM.

And for the medical profession who have long sought the aid of the clerical one in removing their mistakes from questioning eyes. Hell, the two 'professions' even shared a life insurance and pensions company until.Axa took it over ...