Event 201 - Global Pandemic Exercise

[Barry]

What evidence do you have that it is only 0.1%?

You haven't questioned my reasoning in my post above which puts it at less than 0.1% of infections. (Tested positive is obviously not equal to actual infections).

It's not the percentage of deaths which is a worry, it is the sudden floodgates which are breached rapidly as the infection is so rapid in its spread.

I really don't know what we are arguing about. Most figures are unreliable, after all. Do you trust Iranian figures?

[Nalaar]

So currently, about 1.5% of cases have died.  As in most places, the reason for testing is crucial.  These are probably not random trials, but are only testing people who are ill.  So it's 1.5% of ill people with Covid-19 who have died.  There are 51 million in S Korea, maybe many more have it or had it, not ill enough to be tested.

Maybe, but they have cast a pretty wide net - 350 thousand tested to find 9 thousand with the disease, that's about as good as you could expect from real world conditions in a few weeks, and the number found is way above 0.1%.



What evidence do you have that it is only 0.1%?

[Scott777]

Are you looking for this information yourself?



http://ncov.mohw.go.kr/en/">http://ncov.mohw.go.kr/en/

So currently, about 1.5% of cases have died.  As in most places, the reason for testing is crucial.  These are probably not random trials, but are only testing people who are ill.  So it's 1.5% of ill people with Covid-19 who have died.  There are 51 million in S Korea, maybe many more have it or had it, not ill enough to be tested.

[Nalaar]

Where does it say number tested, or reason for testing?

Are you looking for this information yourself?



http://ncov.mohw.go.kr/en/">http://ncov.mohw.go.kr/en/

[Scott777]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-korea/">https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... uth-korea/">https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-korea/

Where does it say number tested, or reason for testing?

[Nalaar]

I'm interested, but it's unlear.  Can you either provide a link to the data, or explain what is "cases", "deaths", and why they were tested?

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-korea/">https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... uth-korea/">https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-korea/

[Barry]

South Korea have been conducting extensive testing, giving our best insight into fatality rates.



As of 24 March 2020, South Korea has about 9,037 cases and 120 deaths, with over 348,582 people having been tested, a case fatality rate of 1.33%



An order of magnitude higher than 0.1%

Not really.

For each one they tested there are 142 people not tested as there is a 51 million population. So there were probably 9000 x 142 = 1,278,000 infected so your death rate is 120/1278000 about 1 in 10,000 or 0.01%

[Scott777]

South Korea have been conducting extensive testing, giving our best insight into fatality rates.



As of 24 March 2020, South Korea has about 9,037 cases and 120 deaths, with over 348,582 people having been tested, a case fatality rate of 1.33%



An order of magnitude higher than 0.1%

I'm interested, but it's unlear.  Can you either provide a link to the data, or explain what is "cases", "deaths", and why they were tested?

[Nalaar]

Any evidence at all, that it's more than 0.1%?

South Korea have been conducting extensive testing, giving our best insight into fatality rates.



As of 24 March 2020, South Korea has about 9,037 cases and 120 deaths, with over 348,582 people having been tested, a case fatality rate of 1.33%



An order of magnitude higher than 0.1%

[johnofgwent]

It would appear lessons were not learned Foot and Mouth "escaped" from a level 4 laboratory during the last outbreak of food and mouth.

Also unless things have changed Porton Down is being held together with Duct Tape and crossed fingers.

Some were.



Never again will high risk toxins or the like networked on in proximity to less highly rated labs.



I can personally vouch for those changes being made. Moira worked for the welsh office then. I invited a certain someone to come with me to a couple of the labs we worked in. Then I made their refusal to find the time to.do do VERY public.



I was a bit surprised I passed vetting on some stuff some years later ....

[Scott777]

Frankly, I don't give a damn.

Fair enough.  It's a shame, because the current shenanigans is important.  Well, the sun is shining, so time for sun.

[papasmurf]

I was THERE when it HAPPENNED



Had the air current been blowing the other way, it would have got in the lab I was in, not hers. And no one would have died. For everyone in the visiting group in was in had been inoculated, as all.of us lived near the 60's incident inoculation area.



Personally, I think.of it as one of gods little jokes

It would appear lessons were not learned Foot and Mouth "escaped" from a level 4 laboratory during the last outbreak of food and mouth.

Also unless things have changed Porton Down is being held together with Duct Tape and crossed fingers.

[johnofgwent]

I had not heard about this incident of Smallpox escaping from a laboratory in 1978:-



https://biotech.law.lsu.edu/blaw/bt/smallpox/refs/report_1978_london.pdf">https://biotech.law.lsu.edu/blaw/bt/sma ... london.pdf">https://biotech.law.lsu.edu/blaw/bt/smallpox/refs/report_1978_london.pdf

I was THERE when it HAPPENNED



Had the air current been blowing the other way, it would have got in the lab I was in, not hers. And no one would have died. For everyone in the visiting group in was in had been inoculated, as all.of us lived near the 60's incident inoculation area.



Personally, I think.of it as one of gods little jokes

[papasmurf]

Should I take your word for that?

Frankly, I don't give a damn.

[Scott777]

Yes regularly during my lifetime.

Should I take your word for that?