Only one speed

[Nick]

I suggest you have your head in the sand. Without a vaccine and little to offer in the way of treatment what else is there? The hope is that enough will have mild symptoms, but the numbers needing medical intervention has taken the Health leaders by surprise, which in itself is unbelievable considering the world evidence. The Government are not medics or scientists, they can only be advised and the advice so far has been abysmal. It is quite clear that we went into this assuming it would be manageable. It isn't. We are now pushed to make the best we can of it.



Lots of beds, but little equipment or personnel. It is a good look but time will tell if any of it is actually effective. We are in the realms now of a panacea for the masses.  Time will tell.

That's just supposition T00ts.



We don't know what is happening in the background or even if there is a vaccine being tested at the moment. Governments work this way to avoid hysteria but clearly some in society can generate this on their own.

[papasmurf]

I'll explain the latter.  People who downplay the seriousness of the coronavirus pandemic or question the necessity of the severe restrictions are promoting dangerous ideas that could cost lives.

Quite, locally I am getting hacked of with surfer "dudes" who think travelling to a beach by car is a necessity.

It isn't,  if they lived in France access to beaches is banned.

[T00ts]

You show me one shred of evidence that the Government wants everyone to catch it.

I suggest you have your head in the sand. Without a vaccine and little to offer in the way of treatment what else is there? The hope is that enough will have mild symptoms, but the numbers needing medical intervention has taken the Health leaders by surprise, which in itself is unbelievable considering the world evidence. The Government are not medics or scientists, they can only be advised and the advice so far has been abysmal. It is quite clear that we went into this assuming it would be manageable. It isn't. We are now pushed to make the best we can of it.



Lots of beds, but little equipment or personnel. It is a good look but time will tell if any of it is actually effective. We are in the realms now of a panacea for the masses.  Time will tell.

[Hyperduck Quack Quack]

Old quotes from the Second World are being dusted off for re-use during the coronavirus pandemic.  



The two most appropriate ones I can think of for the current situation are:



"Is your journey really necessary?"



"Dangerous talk costs lives."



I'll explain the latter.  People who downplay the seriousness of the coronavirus pandemic or question the necessity of the severe restrictions are promoting dangerous ideas that could cost lives.

[Nick]

Well good for you Nick but for people like T00ts  there is only the anxiety when you are so vulnerable.

Maybe, but that is a far cry from saying the year is written off, in April.



As with all of our conversations on this subject we will see who is right. I believe history will not remember it.

[T00ts]

It is the exact situation where I live, there are VERY few ICU beds. Promises of this week next week sometime never for any increases in ICU kit, ventilators, PPE kit, when too late was two months ago.

It does concern me that speed has gone out of the window. They have known that testing was essential, the WHO has said it all along. As Italy succumbed the UK medical/scientific boffins were still messing about with theories. We are past theories, we have umpteen very clever people in this country, people who are adept at thinking outside the box, creative people with skill and the people in positions of trust have sat on their hands more determined to keep everything in house than utilise the skills on offer.



It has been shortsighted at its very least, criminal at worst. I mentioned more than a fortnight ago the NHS, Health England big wigs, no doubt on huge salaries, who sat in front of the Health select committee chaired by Jeremy Hunt, and I mention it again now.  They were so obviously not up to speed, not prepared or even realising the urgency that we were in then and are certainly in now, as they sat wriggling in their chairs struggling to obfuscate, deny and delay, making their best efforts not to give a straight answer to the many straight questions. Sadly many people will die because of the dire lack of action and incompetency of these people and those around them, and it will be small comfort when all is done that they will face an enquiry which will no doubt absolve them from blame. Any government should be able to look to those in charge around them in charge of National bodies, and be able to expect them to step up to the plate. No Chairman, CEO, Exec Manager is there just for the good times. They need the skill to rise to the challenge when it all goes ape.



If ever there was evidence that the NHS management is not fit for purpose, then this is it. There should be uproar when we eventually pull through this that medics were left unsupported, that thinking was limited to say the least and that those in charge failed. It is time that medical health was seriously looked at.

[Nick]

As I understand it yes they want to flatten the curve, which is a euphemism for slowing the rate of infection, but at the same time their hope is that they can slowly infect most people to the point where the virus has few uninfected subjects to keep going. I think that's a vain hope and as time has gone on the penny seems to be dropping. Their shock has been the numbers who don't have a mild infection. Their shock has been that it is not just the old who succumb. Their shock is the ineffectiveness of current available treatment on far too many. Their shock is just how fast it spreads. Their shock is that they glibly believed China's figures.

I too am going about my business as best I can, I would imagine that's true of the entire population, but to infer that by doing so we will somehow win what is a very real battle at this point is to be more than optimistic. For many the only exit will be when they find a vaccine. For others it will be when they are found to be immune, both  of which outcomes seem as far away as ever at this moment.

You show me one shred of evidence that the Government wants everyone to catch it.

[Barry]

It's very well quoting his opinion from 3 weeks ago

Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus

@DrTedros

#COVID19 is a controllable pandemic. Countries that decide to give up on fundamental public health measures (like case finding and contact tracing) may end up with a larger problem, and a heavier burden on the health system that requires more severe measures to control.

but he was quite clearly wrong, and I'll tell you why.

The virus is not only invisible it actually hides whilst people are in incubation and simultaneously contagious.

That makes it uncontrollable. There have been a million measured cases in the world in 2 months, the Australians think that with the unmeasured numbers that is likely 10 million. I would dare to say many many more.



The fact the pandemic is quite clearly uncontrolled is due to its nature and Tedros would be well advised to admit he was wrong.

Experts are often wrong when they give opinions.

Of course , who do we believe , the walter mitty type Patman Post spinning of events , or conservative politician and former health secretary Jeremy Hunt.

Neither

[papasmurf]

I don't think that's at all true at this point -

It is the exact situation where I live, there are VERY few ICU beds. Promises of this week next week sometime never for any increases in ICU kit, ventilators, PPE kit, when too late was two months ago.

[Thomas]

Seems fairly obvious to me. Vallance was saying it was HIS AIM to infect people now, as the warmer weather approached, so that they could avoid a massive spike in WINTER 2020/2021.



Now that policy has been abandoned, it seems to me obvious we will be under lockdown until he other side of next christmas

 :hattip



Good post john.



Patman post is coming across as a conservative party spin doctor , except on brexit of course , where he virulently opposes them.



The idea that the much talked about "herd immunity" plan was nothing more than a mere side effect  rather than a goal of the uk governments long term plan really is laughable.



Im not arguin either way wether or not anyone believe this should be the way forward ; im merely picking up patman posts spinning of events to suggest , as you rightly point  out contrary to what patman said , that it wasnt the initial policy concerning coronavirus.



Dr Tedros of the WHO made it clear 3 weeks ago that the WHO advice on dealing with covid 19 was isolate , test and trace contacts.

Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus

@DrTedros

#COVID19 is a controllable pandemic. Countries that decide to give up on fundamental public health measures (like case finding and contact tracing) may end up with a larger problem, and a heavier burden on the health system that requires more severe measures to control.

[/b]



https://twitter.com/DrTedros/status/1238110212499869696">https://twitter.com/DrTedros/status/1238110212499869696



Vallance and Whittys advice up to that stage was that containment wasnt possible , and the uk shouldnt even try. This was all to eagerly accepted by johnson  , cummings and hancock up to that stage.



Than  , after much ctiticism of the uk government posistion ,we had articles and news reports like this piece from buzzfeed .........

10 Days That Changed Britain: "Heated" Debate Between Scientists Forced Boris Johnson To Act On Coronavirus

[/b]

It was on Wednesday, March 11 — 10 days ago — that some of the experts on the government's Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies began to realise that the coronavirus was spreading through the UK too fast for the NHS to cope.



Over the next few days, Britain's leading epidemiologists were embroiled in a series of extremely tense — and until now private — discussions among themselves, with the UK's chief scientific adviser, Patrick Vallance, and Boris Johnson's government over what to do.



There was no consensus. Several of the scientists frantically argued that the UK must immediately introduce social distancing to halt the spread of the virus. Some pleaded with the government to change tack or face dire consequences.



But others continued to believe that introducing social distancing now would be unsustainable for a long period and would lead to a more disastrous second wave of infection.



The dayslong debate between the experts themselves and with the government was "heated" and "extremely difficult", multiple sources familiar with the discussions told BuzzFeed News. Vallance admitted as much at a health select committee hearing this week: "If you think SAGE is a cosy consensus of agreeing, you're very wrong indeed".

[/b]



https://www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/alexwickham/10-days-that-changed-britains-coronavirus-approach">https://www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/alexwi ... s-approach">https://www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/alexwickham/10-days-that-changed-britains-coronavirus-approach



....showing mass argument and indecison among the uk government , leading scientists and officials regarding the initial appraoch to dealing with covid 19.

Towards the end of last week, some ministers and political aides at the top of the government were still arguing that the original strategy of home isolation of suspect cases — but no real restrictions on wider society — was correct, despite almost every other European country taking a much tougher approach, and increasing alarm among SAGE experts.



The thought of months or even a year of social distancing was simply not feasible, some in Johnson's team still thought at that point. They continued to privately defend the controversial "herd immunity" approach outlined to the media by Vallance, even as other aides scrambled to claim the UK had never considered it to be policy.



And there was fury behind the scenes among members of Johnson's team at the likes of Rory Stewart and Jeremy Hunt, who had been publicly saying the government had got it wrong.



But data from Italy — presented to the government before it was published by experts at Imperial College on Monday — changed all that. Their report confirmed the earlier fears of the epidemiologists who had been calling for more drastic action.



It showed that the NHS would indeed soon be overwhelmed if the UK's "mitigation" strategy continued. The country had to move right away to a "suppression" approach with much more social distancing and restrictions on normal life, Imperial concluded.



Vallance and Johnson accepted the chilling findings and the prime minister finally advised social distancing on Monday. The experts who had been demanding this for days wondered what the lost time would mean in terms of deaths.

[/b]



As we know , the imperial college released a paper that showed the managed epidemic/herd immunity strategy that was the governments original plan ( despite patman posts denial and spinning) was simply not viable , as it would result in the overhwelming of the nhs and deaths of 250 000 people.



The evidence that the uk government were initially pursuing a herd immunity strategy  , contrary to what the WHO were advising and the majority of first world countries were following , is overwhelming.



For patman post to try and spin otherwise is laughable.



Heres conservative backbencher , privy councillor , former health secretary and tory leadership candidate Jeremy Hunt confirming up till recently , the uk government strategy was herd immunity....

"We changed our strategy a couple of weeks ago from the herd immunity strategy to the suppression strategy."

[/u][/b]

@Jeremy_Hunt

, Chair of the Health Select Committee, says that the suppression method for dealing with the coronavirus outbreak "requires a lot of testing"

[/b]



and the video of him saying it....



( you have to slightly scroll up the link )



https://twitter.com/i/status/1245107871362224132">https://twitter.com/i/status/1245107871362224132





Of course , who do we believe , the walter mitty type Patman Post spinning of events , or conservative politician and former health secretary  Jeremy Hunt.

[Javert]

Quite. It is now VERY obvious people like myself due to age and decrepitude will NOT be treated if I catch Covid-19.

There just are NOT the facilities at local hospitals, I would be triaged out and left to die.  (Standard practice in disaster situations.)

I don't think that's at all true at this point - this might only be the case if you catch it and there are not enough  ventilators available for everyone who needs them.



As of yesterday, there were still significant numbers of ventilator beds empty all across the country so if you were sick today and went in, you would get everything.



The race against time is to increase the number of ventilators faster than the number of arriving patients.  So far they are winning this race, but that's mainly because they have stolen ventilators from others places like operating theatres, private hospitals etc - now they have to get more from other sources.



Also not every patient needs a ventilator - my wife didn't need one even though she has asthma and recovered without one.



Probably too early, but I'm seeing mental image of Caracticus Potts creating a ventilator out of an old accordion and a bicycle, and getting the kids to pedel like mad to save granny.

[T00ts]

No one has said they can stop it. No one has said it will die out. The whole idea is to flatten the curve so the NHS can cope.



Your anxieties are your anxieties and if you want to write the year off then that's up to you but I for one am not. I'm going about my business as best I can and will be back at LCY next Monday.

As I understand it yes they want to flatten the curve, which is a euphemism for slowing the rate of infection, but at the same time their hope is that they can slowly infect most people to the point where the virus has few uninfected subjects to keep going. I think that's a vain hope and as time has gone on the penny seems to be dropping. Their shock has been the numbers who don't have a mild infection. Their shock has been that it is not just the old who succumb. Their shock is the ineffectiveness of current available treatment on far too many. Their shock is just how fast it spreads. Their shock is that they glibly believed China's figures.

I too am going about my business as best I can, I would imagine that's true of the entire population, but to infer that by doing so we will somehow win what is a very real battle at this point is to be more than optimistic. For many the only exit will be when they find a vaccine. For others it will be when they are found to be immune, both  of which outcomes seem as far away as ever at this moment.

[papasmurf]

Well good for you Nick but for people like T00ts  there is only the anxiety when you are so vulnerable.

Quite. It is now VERY obvious people like myself due to age and decrepitude will NOT be treated if I catch Covid-19.

There just are NOT the facilities at local hospitals, I would be triaged out and left to die.  (Standard practice in disaster situations.)

[cromwell]

No one has said they can stop it. No one has said it will die out. The whole idea is to flatten the curve so the NHS can cope.



Your anxieties are your anxieties and if you want to write the year off then that's up to you but I for one am not. I'm going about my business as best I can and will be back at LCY next Monday.

Well good for you Nick but for people like T00ts  there is only the anxiety when you are so vulnerable.

[Nick]

They know they have no way of stopping it. The chances of sufficient infection for it to die out naturally is a red herring. They hope to regulate the spread for NHS convenience. In the meantime they frantically look for a vaccine while hoping that the population will be frightened enough to be obedient. I am convinced that this year is a write off for me.

No one has said they can stop it. No one has said it will die out. The whole idea is to flatten the curve so the NHS can cope.



Your anxieties are your anxieties and if you want to write the year off then that's up to you but I for one am not. I'm going about my business as best I can and will be back at LCY next Monday.