"We are suffering from a media epidemic"

[Nalaar]

So in many ways Covid 19 could be a bit of a fun thing.

There are bad takes...and then there's something like this. Very strange.

[Nalaar]

His common sense may yet prove to be far more insightful than any of your experts.

Yes that is possible.

But I think it is significantly less likely than the experts being far more insightful that an uninformed persons "common sense".

[Scott777]

The number of dire red warning lights about the damage being done to our economy and to our very future by lockdown are growing every day. The unemployment figures emerging from the US are by far worse than anyone ever imagined, and eventually, once our government realises it can't continue to keep writing blank cheques indefinitely, the figures here will match them in bleakness in a few months time.

 :hattip

[Barry]

I can't see any politician or medical expert standing by and doing nothing with the risk of thousands if not millions of deaths. Our culture is one of believing we can overcome illness, we are invincible when it comes to anything to do with health.

That is part of the problem. The truth is we are all mortal, all are days are numbered, and we cannot cure everyone. People have unrealistic expectations that we can cure everyone from a potential fatal pneumonia plague.

The 500,000 figure was based on a 1% death rate with 80% of the population catching it.

We now know that the actual death rate is nearer 0.1%  because of the Iceland studies showing asymptomatic infections.

The current government hope of 20,000 max is optimistic.

[DeppityDawg]

So the common sense may say one thing in terms of continued wealth but that lacks a human element.

There is nothing in my post about "continued wealth", Toots. This is not about wealth, it is about the risk to peoples lives, versus the risk to the viability of the economy, even the world economy. How long do you think we can continue to print money that doesn't exist? If the economy becomes unviable, everything becomes unviable. The health service becomes unviable. Police Force becomes unviable. Ambulance service becomes unviable. State and public service pensions become unviable. Investment becomes unviable. Any kind of benefits safety net becomes unviable. We are already multiple billions of pounds in debt. What are we going to do when this debt deflates, while millions are out of work? At that point, you are looking at Sovereign debt crises emerging (countries cant pay their debts), domino effect, and FIAT currency will collapse. Large scale public unrest and worse is only just around the corner. Italy is going to be in serious, serious trouble soon. It only takes one domino to fall.



This isn't about " continued wealth", because as always, it will be the poorest, those who already have nothing, that will suffer the most.

[Borchester]

Perhaps. But the stark ramifications of the decisions being taken by politicians (public servants) based on the advice given by "medical experts" (establishment and public servants) are very unlikely to affect they themselves in any way remotely like the way millions of ordinary people are going to have their lives irrevocably changed by these decisions. In any case, what makes an "expert"? A university education and a lifetime in receipt of large (often publicly funded) salary, largely insulated from real life and the real problems faced by most ordinary people? Medical experts have been wrong before, as "experts" in all fields sometimes are.



The number of dire red warning lights about the damage being done to our economy and to our very future by lockdown are growing every day. The unemployment figures emerging from the US are by far worse than anyone ever imagined, and eventually, once our government realises it can't continue to keep writing blank cheques indefinitely, the figures here will match them in bleakness in a few months time. Many businesses that have closed due to "lockdown" will never reopen, and for many more, its too late already to save them. "Experts" in economics have made many forecasts about the likely effects of the governments actions, and many of them are in disagreement. Some of these "experts" will be wrong - its not inconceivable that the "medical experts" could also be wrong, since their are differing positions. Not all "experts" can be right all the time.



Sadly, many have died, and many more are likely to. We don't know if it will be "half a million". Only time will tell. But the truth is that Coronavirus will pass. There is a lot (and growing daily) of evidence that the effects of lockdown on our economy(s) are already causing very severe damage. If true, these may not pass so easily and could be felt for many generations to come, effectively hamstringing public services and social services to a degree never before seen. We have no real idea of the amount of suffering this may cause. In the end, we'll see which "experts" were right, and which were wrong. Either way, the price to be paid in lives, livelihoods and futures is very, very steep.



His common sense may yet prove to be far more insightful than any of your experts.

 :hattip



All good stuff DD, to which I would like to add a couple of riders.



The first thing to be aware of when conducting any sort of forecast is GIGo, garbage in, garbage out. And a lot of the information available seems a bit suss.



The second is this business of half a million deaths. As one of the older members of this forum I can expect to have good chance of being among that number. But although I shall be loathe to go and you will all no doubt grieve at my passing, it has to be said that I can't see how the lose of a few hundred thousand non productive oldies will have much effect on the economic or social fabric of the UK. In fact, it should save the NHS a far few bob and reduce house prices. So in many ways Covid 19 could be a bit of a fun thing.

[T00ts]

Perhaps. But the stark ramifications of the decisions being taken by politicians (public servants) based on the advice given by "medical experts" (establishment and public servants) are very unlikely to affect they themselves in any way remotely like the way millions of ordinary people are going to have their lives irrevocably changed by these decisions. In any case, what makes an "expert"? A university education and a lifetime in receipt of large (often publicly funded) salary, largely insulated from real life and the real problems faced by most ordinary people? Medical experts have been wrong before, as "experts" in all fields sometimes are.



The number of dire red warning lights about the damage being done to our economy and to our very future by lockdown are growing every day. The unemployment figures emerging from the US are by far worse than anyone ever imagined, and eventually, once our government realises it can't continue to keep writing blank cheques indefinitely, the figures here will match them in bleakness in a few months time. Many businesses that have closed due to "lockdown" will never reopen, and for many more, its too late already to save them. "Experts" in economics have made many forecasts about the likely effects of the governments actions, and many of them are in disagreement. Some of these "experts" will be wrong - its not inconceivable that the "medical experts" could also be wrong, since their are differing positions. Not all "experts" can be right all the time.



Sadly, many have died, and many more are likely to. We don't know if it will be "half a million". Only time will tell. But the truth is that Coronavirus will pass. There is a lot (and growing daily) of evidence that the effects of lockdown on our economy(s) are already causing very severe damage. If true, these may not pass so easily and could be felt for many generations to come, effectively hamstringing public services and social services to a degree never before seen. We have no real idea of the amount of suffering this may cause. In the end, we'll see which "experts" were right, and which were wrong. Either way, the price to be paid in lives, livelihoods and futures is very, very steep.



His common sense may yet prove to be far more insightful than any of your experts.,

I can't see any politician or medical expert standing by and doing nothing with the risk of thousands if not millions of deaths. Our culture is one of believing we can overcome illness, we are invincible when it comes to anything to do with health. After all our NHS is the greatest in the world - so they say. So the common sense may say one thing in terms of continued wealth but that lacks a human element. The disruption caused to businesses by large numbers being sick or dying all at once as the virus spreads through a workforce might also take businesses to the wall. Mr and Mrs Bloggs may well stop shopping, lunching. dining etc if they know that Mr Smith down the road died of it and Mrs Jones left three young children motherless.

They would all then look to the bosses (as long as they hadn't died too) and parliament asking why this was being allowed to happen.

We can't have it both ways. We can't continue the economy and protect our people at the same time. Whichever way we move there are likely consequences, I am quite relieved it isn't up to me to make that choice. We have to wait until we have the information that they are racing to find.

[DeppityDawg]

Okay. So it's just your opinion. I'm sure you'll understand why people are taking the opinion of medical experts more seriously than your "common sense".

Perhaps. But the stark ramifications of the decisions being taken by politicians (public servants) based on the advice given by "medical experts" (establishment and public servants) are very unlikely to affect they themselves in any way remotely like the way millions of ordinary people are going to have their lives irrevocably changed by these decisions. In any case, what makes an "expert"? A university education and a lifetime in receipt of large (often publicly funded) salary, largely insulated from real life and the real problems faced by most ordinary people? Medical experts have been wrong before, as "experts" in all fields sometimes are.



The number of dire red warning lights about the damage being done to our economy and to our very future by lockdown are growing every day. The unemployment figures emerging from the US are by far worse than anyone ever imagined, and eventually, once our government realises it can't continue to keep writing blank cheques indefinitely, the figures here will match them in bleakness in a few months time. Many businesses that have closed due to "lockdown" will never reopen, and for many more, its too late already to save them. "Experts" in economics have made many forecasts about the likely effects of the governments actions, and many of them are in disagreement. Some of these "experts" will be wrong - its not inconceivable that the "medical experts" could also be wrong, since their are differing positions. Not all "experts" can be right all the time.



Sadly, many have died, and many more are likely to. We don't know if it will be "half a million". Only time will tell. But the truth is that Coronavirus will pass. There is a lot (and growing daily) of evidence that the effects of lockdown on our economy(s) are already causing very severe damage. If true, these may not pass so easily and could be felt for many generations to come, effectively hamstringing public services and social services to a degree never before seen. We have no real idea of the amount of suffering this may cause. In the end, we'll see which "experts" were right, and which were wrong. Either way, the price to be paid in lives, livelihoods and futures is very, very steep.



His common sense may yet prove to be far more insightful than any of your experts.

[Scott777]

Well based on your past posting history, I suspect that you get your "information" from sources that I would find extremely dubious, and I also suspect that you probably think all reports in media like the BBC, UK government official sources, NHS and so on are all lies and only the websites you visit provide "true" news.  As such it's probably not much worth debating the point with you.  



Apart from anything else, there was a very clear government sponsored report from Imperial College which said that up to half a million people would die prematurely, both directly from Covid-19 and indirectly from lack of ICU hospital beds for other conditions, within the next 4 months.  This was based on exactly the scenario you mention which is that we lift the lockdown.

Your first part is a complete strawman - most MSM news is propaganda (not lies), according to the studies of people who may have slightly more knowledge and experience than yourself, such as Prof. Noam Chomsky.



The second part is (to my knowledge) false.  Did the Imperial College scenario involve an high-risk-only lockdown?  If it did, you could direct me to that study or article.

[Javert]

I agree, but see no evidence at all that that would happen, even if we ended the lockdown.

Well based on your past posting history, I suspect that you get your "information" from sources that I would find extremely dubious, and I also suspect that you probably think all reports in media like the BBC, UK government official sources, NHS and so on are all lies and only the websites you visit provide "true" news.  As such it's probably not much worth debating the point with you.  



Apart from anything else, there was a very clear government sponsored report from Imperial College which said that up to half a million people would die prematurely, both directly from Covid-19 and indirectly from lack of ICU hospital beds for other conditions, within the next 4 months.  This was based on exactly the scenario you mention which is that we lift the lockdown.



Of course, all models are based on assumptions - the single biggest assumption in that model that might change things is if we later on find out that a much larger number of people have been infected asymptomatic ally than currently assumed, and that those people have a good level of immunity for a significant length of time.  There is no way of knowing this for sure yet as we don't have enough data.  In the meantime, they are correctly assuming that this number is small and will refine the strategy when more information comes in.  The current science suggests that people who are saying that half the population have already had it are most probably wrong because if that was the case, we would already be seeing a big flattening of the rate of growth of cases.

[Scott777]

He doesn't have any common sense.

 ::

[Scott777]

Okay. So it's just your opinion. I'm sure you'll understand why people are taking the opinion of medical experts more seriously than your "common sense".

It's a false dichotomy.  I take some experts seriously and still think that idea is a good one.  I still don't know which experts contradict it, because you haven't said.

[papasmurf]

Okay. So it's just your opinion. I'm sure you'll understand why people are taking the opinion of medical experts more seriously than your "common sense".

He doesn't have any common sense.

[Nalaar]

Yes, Doherty's plan should work, and in the mean time, the economy will take a nose dive.



Yes, I assume that suggestion will work.  If vulnerable are fully locked down, how do you expect them to get the virus?  Do I need authority? or is it common sense?

Okay. So it's just your opinion. I'm sure you'll understand why people are taking the opinion of medical experts more seriously than your "common sense".

[papasmurf]

I agree, but see no evidence at all that that would happen, even if we ended the lockdown.

With the lack of equipment and massive increase in cases without a shutdown, there is a potential for 1.2 million of the nearly 8 million over 70's to die. (That is without including those under 70 with known pre-existing conditions.

(The other problem the substantial number of people with unknown pre-existing conditions, who often only get found when they end up in the A%E for some other reason.)