"We are suffering from a media epidemic"

[Scott777]

Statistics of epedimiology.

Honestly, you should be able to explain how YOU reach your conclusions.  Did he say "must"?

[Scott777]

Well one thing for sure that's a bit of a change from what I thought was your former opinion. I wouldn't be at all surprised if that wasn't the plan. If they can get hold of a reliable antibody test then yes they would be able to put all those with immunity back out there. I am sure that's what every scientist is working for and buying time to make it happen.

I wouldn't put it past the guv to not try as hard as they could.  I'm sure they are quite enjoying the prospect of running out of money, with a reason to blame for it, the NHS going down, and corporations making a profit.  Who knows?

[papasmurf]

Did he say "must".  And why?

Statistics of epedimiology.

[Scott777]

You're saying we would only need to lockdown the vulnerable to bring down deaths greatly. Doherty states the Compliant lockdown population must be 80-90%

Did he say "must".  And why?

[papasmurf]

. What I am not for is running around like frightened children and screaming that the sky is falling in.

Who is doing that?  The Tory government has proven to be incompetent since May 2010. Personally I am protecting myself, all the Tory Government is doing is to lie.

[Borchester]

Do you agree with professor John Sydney Oxford that we need to maintain a social distancing program for 80-90% of the population for several weeks to bring down deaths?

If that is what what the good Prof suggests then I am all for it. What I am not for is running around like frightened children and screaming that the sky is falling in. We all have to die, there is no reason to humiliate ourselves in the process.

[T00ts]

Basically to go along with the lockdown for a bit more, as a precaution and to get more data, then seriously consider a vulnerable-only lockdown.

Well one thing for sure that's a bit of a change from what I thought was your former opinion. I wouldn't be at all surprised if that wasn't the plan. If they can get hold of a reliable antibody test then yes they would be able to put all those with immunity back out there. I am sure that's what every scientist is working for and buying time to make it happen.

[Nalaar]

You'll need to explain the contradiction.

You're saying we would only need to lockdown the vulnerable to bring down deaths greatly. Doherty states the Compliant lockdown population must be 80-90%

[Scott777]

Source?

ONS

[Scott777]

You assertion that 'lockdown for the vulnerable only would also bring down deaths greatly' is in contradiction with the statement made by John Sydney Oxford, which is based on the model by Nobel prize winning immunologist Peter Doherty.



By what authority and evidence are you contradicting that claim?

You'll need to explain the contradiction.

[papasmurf]

Here's an interesting fact:



Deaths in February (England & Wales) (ONS)



2018 -- 49,177



2019 -- 45,796



2020 -- 43, 653



It will interesting to see what is was for March.

Source?



Latest official weekly stats:-



https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/877621/Weekly_all_cause_mortality_surveillance_week_14_2020_report.pdf">https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/877621/Weekly_all_cause_mortality_surveillance_week_14_2020_report.pdf

[Nalaar]

Depends what "several weeks is".  2 weeks maybe.  Lockdown for the vulnerable only would also bring down deaths greatly (or maybe not, because vulnerable people do die anyway).

2 weeks minimum before the deaths would slow and start to decline, then however many weeks after that to get the death per day number down, as we are seeing in Italy etc.



You assertion that 'lockdown for the vulnerable only would also bring down deaths greatly' is in contradiction with the statement made by John Sydney Oxford, which is based on the model by Nobel prize winning immunologist Peter Doherty.



By what authority and evidence are you contradicting that claim?

[Scott777]

Here's an interesting fact:



Deaths in February (England & Wales) (ONS)



2018 -- 49,177



2019 -- 45,796



2020 -- 43, 653



It will interesting to see what is was for March.

[papasmurf]

Depends what "several weeks is".  2 weeks maybe.

I am on officlal lock down for 12 weeks, I expect that to be a lot longer shortly.

[Scott777]

Do you agree with professor John Sydney Oxford that we need to maintain a social distancing program for 80-90% of the population for several weeks to bring down deaths?

Depends what "several weeks is".  2 weeks maybe.  Lockdown for the vulnerable only would also bring down deaths greatly (or maybe not, because vulnerable people do die anyway).